You chose to drive on 101?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You chose to drive on 101?
I think you are not taking into account how irrational the Anti-Tesla crowd is. There will always be FUD against Tesla. And true sleep-in-the-back autonomy will take a long time to penetrate the market. First off, a lot of people won't trust it. There will be a fatality eventually and that will dominate the news and talk radio and social media. Never mind that it will be ten times safer than human drivers. The FUD will explode. Second, for a good while it will be available only in more-expensive cars that many people cannot afford.
The transition will be gradual as only the most technologically progressive will want it at first.
One nice thing is when we used to see mystery replies to someone we've Ignored, now it includes the original post anyway with a note that the sender was ignores - I LOVE this change! I can see if I need to un-ignore anyone if they start posting good posts.
Thanks for the clue. As I check back, the lowest was $539 on last Fri Mar 5th largest volume 89M shares, heavy selling. Today Mon Mar 8th lowest was $559 52M shares on a worst Nasdaq day down -311 pts -2.4%. As of 8:30PM ET, Nasdaq future up +100 pts, Tesla +$5 0.9% $568 after hr. Your clue and possibility are VALID.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
I chose not to sully this thread with a long, off-topic digression about exactly where I went and how much fun it was
Oh, and I forgot to mention that I saw a trailer with a couple of Fords on it. Pretty sure they were Mach-E, also headed south.
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
A non-zero probability.
Reading PIMCO's blog just now, they feel that the inflation fears are over blown. Forecast about 1.75% inflation with a GDP growth of 7.5% for 2021. Basically 60's growth without 70's inflation. This is good. Yellen also reaffirmed that if anything, inflation has been too low.
Looking at the massive short positions on the 10Y treasury has me thinking of a squeozening. Hope that starts tomorrow with the first of 3 auctions this week.
On the flip side, all these rate fears have caused the market to ignore any good news from Tesla - one might say that there is a backlog. China delivery figures should be out soon.
I don’t know what gift I’m sending you through mail if you are right, I’ll let you choose anything in the Tesla Shop if it is an astonishing 10% green day
Hi, can you explain why stock market is spooked by 1.6% 10yr bond, is it 1.6% APR? Companies borrow money for much lower rate, if their stock price go up a minimum of 10% is it a bargain compared to 1.6% APR 10yr bond? Yellen and Powell already said inflation is not a concern, so WHY stock market sell off?
scubastevo80
Member
Daddy just rolled his former employer 401k into a rollover IRA and the check can’t get to Chuckie Schwab fast enough. Here‘s to backing the autonomous truck up in the next day or two!
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
It's not so much the yield in it self but what an increase is signaling with regard to the economy as a whole and projected growth. Or so they say.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
AAA survey finds 86% of drivers afraid to ride in automated vehicles
Technology is changing the way Americans drive, with more automatic features finding their way into cars. Are drivers on board with these changes?
www.8newsnow.com
I'd buy March 2023 $1,700 strike LEAPS. Max time for expiration lowers risk, high, far OTM strike price for relatively low premium, after around a year I'll sell it for a large profit and buy as many LEAPS with far OTM strike prices and expiring a year later, as the proceeds from that sale will buy...
Edit -
I think perhaps my ROI is much better than some of the covered-circular-strangle-wagon-wheel trades with puts or whatever it is some of us manage to do, or inexplicably managing to repeatedly "buy the dip" though claiming to already be "ALL IN" and never selling.
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Plus the argument that an increase in “risk free” rates, which treasury bonds are seen as the proxy, means that the discount rates used in discounted cash flow models (how many growth stocks get valued) equally have to increase, which results in lower near term valuations.
I would add this.
Kathie mentioned in a recent CNBS video that she only deals with allocation and the redemption is handled by the fund manager (like a market maker for ETFs?). I have no idea on how these so called ETF market makers operate. So, I would assume that the market maker may not have ideas of individual securities and either selling based on some predefined algo or as a basket of appreciated securities.
Nobody knows. I wish I knew and I would not have bought shares at upper 700s and 600s and out of powder. Bottom is when some whales stop selling and some more whales start buying or there is new extremely positive fresh news.
In the mean while we ants bite a few more shares.
I'll argue this is great news for TSLA. If they're a $550B company with that much skepticism around, there's mostly one direction to head. The question is when. In the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine...(said someone)AAA survey finds 86% of drivers afraid to ride in automated vehicles
Technology is changing the way Americans drive, with more automatic features finding their way into cars. Are drivers on board with these changes?
edit: 15% m/o/m growth in what is seasonally the weakest car sales month in China. For perspective, Feb 2020 only had 15k EV sales across ALL manufacturers (Tesla was less than 2300 in Feb 2020). Great numbers!
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Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
“Never blame anyone in your life.
Good people give you happiness.
Bad people give you experience.
The worst people give you a lesson.
The best people give you memories.“
Now, go back and re-read that while substituting “markets” for “people”.
Stay strong & HODL.
Good people give you happiness.
Bad people give you experience.
The worst people give you a lesson.
The best people give you memories.“
Now, go back and re-read that while substituting “markets” for “people”.
Stay strong & HODL.
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asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
So this has been quite irrational in my opinion. Over the past two months or so, the market priced in about 2 rate hikes within the next year into the bond markets. This fear led to two things: fear of inflation and increased borrowing rates for companies. Despite Chair Powell and Tres Sec Yellen repeatedly affirming the opposite. There has been criticism that Powell has been too reactive, and lenient in his message. Had he been more forceful, some shorts may have abandoned their position. However, I can't fault him as he is simply doing his job mechanically.
The theory that growth companies (with higher P/E multiples vs value companies) are more sensitive to higher rates holds true on paper. However, I would be hard pressed to see analysts adjusting their discount rate by 0.50% and resulting in 30% sell-offs. Cathie said that companies would use 3-5% to discount (I've worked at ones that used 7%), so 1.6% vs 1.3% doesn't even begin to move the needle. Even increased lending rates don't begin to explain it (especially for companies with relatively low debt like Tesla). If I recall correctly, Morgan Stanley used an 8% WACC for evaluating Tesla.
Now, there is a massive short position on Treasuries and there is a theory that this is fall out from the Bank of New Zealand and Australia's yield curve control projects. I'm not too familiar with NZ but I did see that Australia had fixed their 3 yr rate down to promote lending. Bond traders who missed out on the NZ and AUS trades flocked to short the US Treasury. Just a theory though. I'm still learning about the bond world.
Yes - there is a sector rotation into value going on, but the sell off in growth smells like a whole lot of FUD. Like Auntie Cathie said today, she thinks there is a lot of paralysis in the markets.
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