Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I think there's probably a bit more time to suppress the stock - Tesla is currently in hard core build mode with 2 factories going up (3 if you count GigaShanghai's expansion) and the limited S/X deliveries - which probably won't make for a record breaking quarterly earnings. Suppression could well be similar to 2019 and last into mid year. But once we start seeing production from Austin/Berlin and all the new S/X plaid + reviews in the back half of the year it's going to be difficult for FUD to get any purchase.

In my opinion, FUD has already lost most of it's shock value. For proof of that, look at the share price, up 687% over the last year and only down a measly 23% from it's all-time closing high. IMO, it might still go down another 15% or so but I wouldn't attribute it to FUD so much as normal price discovery of a fast rising stock that is based on estimated earnings years in the future.

People who think the current stock price is shockingly low seem to be over-looking the speculative nature of the valuation and putting too much weight on the fact that the stock had a brief intra-day high of $900. The only reason TSLA is still by far my largest holding is I think it's a solid long-term investment and there is no certainty that it will go down between now and new all-time highs and beyond.

I think from current levels, TSLA will, over the next 5-8 years, greatly outperform other gorillas in their respective spaces like AMZN, MSFT or (especially) AAPL. But it definitely carries a lot of short-term risk in the next year or so. More than these other gorillas.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tick tock, tick tock....

Exclusive: Honda temporarily cutting production at all U.S., Canada plants

Honda Motor Co said late Tuesday supply chain issues will force a halt to production at a majority of U.S. and Canadian auto plants for a week.

reut.rs

 

[EVCollies]

I predict 999.99 due to MM at end of year.

 

[2daMoon]

As for Tesla's lack of advertising
affecting media's bias
It seems far more enticing
to see them as iasses

In the long run by the shorts
to besmirch our beloved SP
We hear the rant and snorts
of mouthpieces for big E

Would Alice have ventured
through the looking glass to see
investors who are indentured
to a fear of poetry

The HODLers cry out
make no rhymes of any sort
But, maybe tis the time
to turn the tables in retort

Would it be any surprise
now that Shantys are the craze
The effects of verse may rise
the SP toward better days


Yeah, I did it. The gauntlet has been thrown. Something drastic had to be done, and I done it. So there.

 

[Norwalk79]

Looks like the violent crash didn't have ap enabled.

Police say Autopilot not believed in use in Detroit Tesla crash

Detroit police said Tuesday they do not believe Tesla's driver assistance system Autopilot was in use during a crash last week of a Tesla that became wedged underneath a tractor-trailer and left a passenger in critical condition. On Monday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration...

finance.yahoo.com

The police should indicate who was at fault, since which driver(s)? was asked about the auto pilot. Who made evasive maneuvers to do what?

 

[ninpb]

2500 by year end. Too many new things in pipeline, just getting in stride and potential of a few early surprises. FOMO to the max.

 

[Singuy]

The police should indicate who was at fault, since which driver(s)? was asked about the auto pilot. Who made evasive maneuvers to do what?

The police was like "its a car accident, why the F is Business Insider, the verge, CNN, msnbc, and yahoo business calling us? Is one of the victim someone famous?".

 

[Norwalk79]

In my opinion, FUD has already lost most of it's shock value. For proof of that, look at the share price, up 687% over the last year and only down a measly 23% from it's all-time closing high. IMO, it might still go down another 15% or so but I wouldn't attribute it to FUD so much as normal price discovery of a fast rising stock that is based on estimated earnings years in the future.

People who think the current stock price is shockingly low seem to be over-looking the speculative nature of the valuation and putting too much weight on the fact that the stock had a brief intra-day high of $900. The only reason TSLA is still by far my largest holding is I think it's a solid long-term investment and there is no certainty that it will go down between now and new all-time highs and beyond.

I think from current levels, TSLA will, over the next 5-8 years, greatly outperform other gorillas in their respective spaces like AMZN, MSFT or (especially) AAPL. But it definitely carries a lot of short-term risk in the next year or so. More than these other gorillas.

End of 2021 delivery and Jan 27 2022 earning will guarantee $1000/share and greatly outperform other gorillas in 1 yr, not 2 yrs

 

[insaneoctane]

Ok. Just for the breadsticks...
$969.42

Some of the predictions have me thinking there is going to be a lot of whining in this thread over the next 8 months...

 

[MXWing]

Mama Cathie closing out some holdings and has been selling big tech every day this week and the past.

Creating liquidity to buy more of her favorites?

 

[deshkart]

I do think the share price will be way higher than today... only reason being wall street undermining FSD and the energy side.

My wild card guess - TSLA will exit 2021 as the world's largest company in the world. Share price 2500

 

[Sofie]

Ok. Just for the breadsticks...
$969.42

Some of the predictions have me thinking there is going to be a lot of whining in this thread over the next 8 months...

Either that or just a whole lot of people not able to look at breadsticks the same way again

 

[cjkosh]

Closest to target.

I'm going with $1065

 

[Chenkers]

I'd say $1120 by the end of the year with most of the increase coming late in the year.

 

[Pras]

Informal research, let's see who has the right stuff. What is your price target for end of year 2021? Winner gets unlimited breadsticks at Olive Garden.

I would say without significant upside/ surprise we will be range bound ~650-850.

1000-1200 if both Berlin and Austin starts reasonable productions in 2021, and 4680 is used in a significant way (showing higher range and/or lower cost). Alternatively, Tesla launches/previews Model 2.

1200-2000 if FSD beta 9 or higher is released for broad testing PLUS Tesla does an FSD no intervention demo (New York to LA type or even to a lesser degree).

 

[Richard007]

I'll go with a peak of $1365 by year end. The amount of liquidity and tailwind will ram into actual beastly 3Q21 post-covid earnings in the S&P. Shorts will get squoze yet again.

Then the whole universe crumbles in 2022 as rates rise.

But when do we come out of that, 2025?

 

[ZeApelido]

In January I thought the near future had been "fully priced" into the share price, so I sold Jan 22 covered calls at various OTM strikes. The lower end of those were around what I thought the stock might end up at best ~ $1200. With the recent dip, I bought to close those and captured a nice 50% of the premium.

If the price spikes above $1000, I will probably sell CC's again. I think there is going to be a good amount of volatility the next few years.

But all that of said, rapidly improving FSD can change the game entirely and must be closely monitored. If it becomes so good that perception begins changing that Tesla could eventually achieve autonomy, share price could sustain closer to a 2 trillion valuation.

But, mainstream is slow to react so I expect to close any CC's if that is on the horizon.

 

[Mo City]

Sometime during 2021/22, TSLA is gonna launch to ~$2,000, maybe more. It primarily hinges on FSD and the speed of the 4680 ramp.

Would not surprise me to see TSLA launch or stay fairly flat in 2021. I don't have a strong feeling either way.

However, by summer/fall of 2022, we will be in nosebleed territory compared to now.

 

[EVWatcher]

But all that of said, rapidly improving FSD can change the game entirely and must be closely monitored. If it becomes so good that perception begins changing that Tesla could eventually achieve autonomy, share price could sustain closer to a 2 trillion valuation.

The thing that confuses me is that in October FSDbeta looked kinda And now it’s good enough to roll out to a wide release in a matter of weeks. How is that. Or the cusp of a massive change in perception?

 

[MXWing]

I’m honestly disappointed they didn’t show the explosion. They’ve always tried to be real with people. This video, while awesome, feels a little dishonest.

I didn’t feel there was any kind of cover up or anything going that’s disingenuous here.

The official stream ended before the explosion.
The test flight as far as anyone should be concerned was complete and successful.
Catching the explosion would take away all the positives and make that the focus of the video.

Thematically the explosion doesn’t fit at all. I’m sure wedding videos have the drunk uncles edited out etc