StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
In my opinion, FUD has already lost most of it's shock value. For proof of that, look at the share price, up 687% over the last year and only down a measly 23% from it's all-time closing high. IMO, it might still go down another 15% or so but I wouldn't attribute it to FUD so much as normal price discovery of a fast rising stock that is based on estimated earnings years in the future.I think there's probably a bit more time to suppress the stock - Tesla is currently in hard core build mode with 2 factories going up (3 if you count GigaShanghai's expansion) and the limited S/X deliveries - which probably won't make for a record breaking quarterly earnings. Suppression could well be similar to 2019 and last into mid year. But once we start seeing production from Austin/Berlin and all the new S/X plaid + reviews in the back half of the year it's going to be difficult for FUD to get any purchase.
People who think the current stock price is shockingly low seem to be over-looking the speculative nature of the valuation and putting too much weight on the fact that the stock had a brief intra-day high of $900. The only reason TSLA is still by far my largest holding is I think it's a solid long-term investment and there is no certainty that it will go down between now and new all-time highs and beyond.
I think from current levels, TSLA will, over the next 5-8 years, greatly outperform other gorillas in their respective spaces like AMZN, MSFT or (especially) AAPL. But it definitely carries a lot of short-term risk in the next year or so. More than these other gorillas.