Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SunCatcher]

So all you guys having been in TSLA for the last 5-10 years, what are some things you’ve done with your gains?
Have you cashed some out and bought homes, cars, islands, etc? Or still HODL on all shares you’ve accumulated?

Sold my 2013 gains at 100%. Never got over it. Loaded up over the subsequent years at much higher price points, but still sitting pretty fine... sure glad I got back in!

 

[UncaNed]

Yeah, I think its actually worse than that: I think they're a bunch of political appointees. At least bureaucrats have to pass a civil service exam. But we have no way to know for sure that these clowns can add (or read). They def aren't on twitter.

The NLRB is trying to point the finger at Elon's tweet as a threat to withhold stock options from unionized workers, when in fact it's the exact opposite: Tesla workers have stock options right now, but would lose them due to UAW policy if they every joined the union.

Maybe that's why 90% of Tesla workers at Fremont voted against unionizing. And that vote was held BEFORE those worker's TSLA options value increased 10x in 2020. How do you think they'd vote now?

The NLRB was desparate to make a headline. They'll get another when they finally lose in court. But Fremont won't be getting a union any time soon.

Cheers!

Its a wonder tesla employees and shareholders don't picket the UAW and NLRB headquarters. We'd have some very good points to make.

 

[BriansTesla]

So all you guys having been in TSLA for the last 5-10 years, what are some things you’ve done with your gains?
Have you cashed some out and bought homes, cars, islands, etc? Or still HODL on all shares you’ve accumulated?

Sold a few shares back in 2013 to buy my first Model S but haven't sold any shares since. Retired last month after 45years in business with more money than I will ever need. I'm planning to put some funds into what I believe is the next important thing after sustainable energy, regenerative agriculture. I believe it's the answer to soil health, human health and carbon capture. Is there a thread for that here?

 

[ZachF]

The point I made in my tweet is that its stranded assets because the investment you need to lift to transform an ICE factory into a BEV factory is comparable to building a brand new BEV factory.

In fact, you throw almost all previous invested capital away. it's not like you change a few tools and can start production again. This is not retooling at all but the entire layout needs to change. Everybody who is telling you that knows nothing about automotive production and as a side note, I am a production engineer by education.

Some parts of the old ICE factory can be used again but it's minor compared to what you invest again.

For VW it's a major investment and when they finished it they still have an old factory more costly and with lower productivity. factoring productivity gains in Tesla has with a new factory compared to lower productivity VW has with an old transformed ICE factory they lose money although all the investment.

If you ask why VW does not start on a green field but goes for a blue field investment its the Unions. The VW law allows unions to decide what is produced where and not the VW Management.

Indeed, not only is there much less overlap between ICE and EV manufacturing, the idea that large incumbent auto manufacturers have unlimited resources to drop at a moment's notice is a stupid. Let's take a look at the numbers and compare VW to Tesla:

The 2021 numbers for Tesla are very rough ballpark guesses.

Now, Capital expenditures are funded by operational cash flow, debt, or equity. Let's compare Teslas and VWs ability to generate this funding:

VW on average generated ~$14b per year in operational cash flow against essentially _zero_ revenue growth. Debt, meanwhile has grown 60%.

Now, Tesla will probably generate about $10b in operational cash flow compared with VW's average $14b.

Interest expense/rolling over the existing debt is going to cost Tesla something under $1b compared to probably around $10 billlion for VW. That drops the OCF less debt refinancing to ~$4b for VW and $9b for Tesla.

Now, let's assume each company wants to keep the debt ratio the same. Since Tesla is growing by 60%, it could theoretically borrow another $6b without increasing the debt to revenue ratio! VW can't do this because of static revenues. Now we are at $15b for Tesla and $4b for VW!

Now, remember, this is the total natural funding roughly available, and VW wont be able to drop it's ICE capital spending to zero even if it wanted to, because the lines will need at least maintenance. Tesla's need to fund obsolete ICE lines is: $0. Ultimately, factor the ICE bare bones upkeep out, and VWs ability to naturally fund EV spending (i.e. without massively increasing the debt ratio) is probably ZERO.

*This* is why VW has had to add $60 billion in debt over the last ~8 years.

Then there are OTHER factors:

-The debt to revenue ratio is *already* much lower for Tesla than VW, so it could theoretically borrow *even more* if it wanted to.
-Tesla has a huge excess cash pile compared to VW
-Tesla's market cap is much higher. With a 1% deval, Tesla could fund $6 billion in capital spending, compared with only ~$1 billion for VW.
-On top of this, since Tesla is now far more experienced in the field of EV manufacturing, it's capital spending is probably going to be much more efficient.

This is what Cathy Wood talks bout when she mentions Tesla's "balance sheet fortress"

People look at Toyota and VW's 10m in sales per year, 20x higher than Tesla, and wrongly assume that roughly correlates with their ability to fund future EV development. The truth is just about the opposite!

 

[CorneliusXX]

I foolishly paid off my P85 car loan in 2014 and installed solar panels- I should have held the shares.

I sold <1% around the S&P inclusion this past Winter.

I did make one frivolous purchase.
View attachment 650790
I am hoping to get a nice ranch-style house built and travel more.

My family will be taken care of and I am working on setting up a charitable foundation.

Mostly, I want to hold and be part of this revolution.

At what level of wealth does starting a charitable foundation seem like a real option? Tesla has got me to the level of "probably wealthy enough to retire if nothing goes horribly wrong". Is it something that seems more accessible when you're at 2x your retirement number, or higher still?

 

[Off Shore]

Moved my 401k to TSLA in 2016-17 after a year in the Model S (I'm slow). Bought land for the agroforestry field station with shares from work and TSLA will provide the infrastructure including 10k m^2 of solar and 1 MWh of battery making us a regional power producer as well. Coffee, cacao, citrus. Also biochar.

 

[gene]

So all you guys having been in TSLA for the last 5-10 years, what are some things you’ve done with your gains?
Have you cashed some out and bought homes, cars, islands, etc? Or still HODL on all shares you’ve accumulated?

Put my son through engeering school at UCSB. All the rest by far the majority of the shares I am still holding.

 

[UkNorthampton]

At what level of wealth does starting a charitable foundation? Tesla has got me to the level of "probably wealthy enough to retire if nothing goes horribly wrong". Is it something that seems more accessible when you're at 2x your retirement number, or higher still?

For me, starting charitable giving from one to two times our retirement goal.

A lot depends on my belief that it only gets better, so even a significant fall at retirement target (to half target) is just a bump long term. Double gives more headroom, but I'm expecting 10 times current value fairly soon, just not counting on it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Rather than just post a link, can you provide some reason why you posted the link. Was it a good video? Anything catch your interest?

As a reminder to all, here's Elon view on what's important to the future success of Tesla (recorded at the 2019 AGM on June 11th).

Elon: (1:00:39) "If I were an outside investor, I would really focus on two things: what is the timeline to full self driving, and what is your plan to scale battery production and get the cost per kilowatt hour lower. It's basically battery cells, and full self driving. Those are the two strategic things that are of most importance."​

Nearly 3 years on, does anyone still doubt the importance of following Tesla battery cell tech?

"The Limiting Factor" Channel (Youtube | Jordan Giesige) by is the single best source of that information on the entire internet. His library of videos is "must see tv" for Tesla investors, IMO.

 

[ZachF]

Most of the existing large ICEV automakers have had zero, near-zero, or shrinking revenue growth with increasing debt over the last decade.

They are A LOT weaker than most people would believe. They've had to lard up on debt to essentially run in place in the global ICE market.

What happens when they need to simultaneously fund EV development while marking down ICE manufacturing equipment losses under declining overall revenues?

Many will probably go bankrupt, and many will probably get bailouts from the national governments.

 

[SOULPEDL]

HODLing, meanwhile installing an air to air heatpump tomorrow to consume less natural gas. Uneconomical, I know, but couldn't bear the thought of installing a dumb AC

OT,
Ya natural gas is my sore spot still. I bought a heated Dyson purifier and place it in the bedroom at night and near my desk in day. And I still haven't used my Spa in a long time. It uses 400,000 BTUs to heating it (= 117 KWh, more than a LR Tesla full charge... PER HOUR). We just don't generate enough surplus to justify that kind of gas burn.

 

[jschwefel]

Here’s a fun weekend challenge to get us to Monday sooner.....
Who has the largest spread between their cheapest shares and their most expensive shares purchased? Please always adjust the prices for the split to make the math easy...

I’ll go first. Can anyone beat $705.05 ?
lowest is $17.80
highest is $722.85

I see quite a few have beaten my $695.60 Well done!!
Lowest is (was) $5.40
Highest is $701.

I say “was” because those shares were donated to charity.

 

[dww12]

Wow, FUD new low. Now Tesla fans are making “death threats” to the one guy the Detroit Free Press found that bought a Mach-E after owning a Tesla X. Tesla owner with Mustang Mach-E reports threats on social media from Tesla fans

Last week it was all about Tesla owners switching to Ford. They have one guy. Luckily Ford PR is coming to his defense.

 

[Words of HABIT]

So all you guys having been in TSLA for the last 5-10 years, what are some things you’ve done with your gains?
Have you cashed some out and bought homes, cars, islands, etc? Or still HODL on all shares you’ve accumulated?

Bought these beauties...

...was able to retire 12 years early and still have skin in the game which keeps me reading TMC. Thanks Elon and Team Tesla!...and you all here on TMC too!

 

[JRP3]

evidently he doesn't see it as a truck either

Other than the fact he named it Cybertruck. It's a truck and will do truck things regardless of your one man obsession to pretend otherwise.

 

[pitabun]

Wanted to spend some of my profits on Cybertruck Tri, but after seeing it in person I cancelled my reservation.

That 6’ bed is no joke, trucks a full sized bull. If they offer smaller bed sizes I’d probably reserve again!

 

[EVCollies]

So all you guys having been in TSLA for the last 5-10 years, what are some things you’ve done with your gains?


Retired, and bought an avocado farm.

I'm glad you are still investing in green industries.

 

[Thumper]

AI and equally CRISPR are awesome tech. I have no faith in humans ability to use the power wisely. Oh sure, we’ll mostly use it wisely but it only takes one Aum Shinrikyo using either or both to really truly and disastrously screw everything up. Hope I’m just an old crank.

 

[keydiver]

Wow, FUD new low. Now Tesla fans are making “death threats” to the one guy the Detroit Free Press found that bought a Mach-E after owning a Tesla X. Tesla owner with Mustang Mach-E reports threats on social media from Tesla fans

Wow, what is wrong with people? I wouldn't exactly say that hoping your Mach-E burns up is a "death threat", but I repeat..."Social Media is a cesspool".

 

[Christine69420]

Wow, FUD new low. Now Tesla fans are making “death threats” to the one guy the Detroit Free Press found that bought a Mach-E after owning a Tesla X. Tesla owner with Mustang Mach-E reports threats on social media from Tesla fans

Last week it was all about Tesla owners switching to Ford. They have one guy. Luckily Ford PR is coming to his defense.

Could be some Tesla owners are idiots.

Could also be some FUD farm pretending to be an obnoxious Tesla owner throwing *sugar* at Mach-E owners to start a FUD fight. To bring down all EVs.