Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
We had a fairly terrible game-show over here called Bullseye.

Inevitably the contestants failed to win the star prize and the host’s catchphrase ‘come and see what you could’ve won’ has since passed into fairly common use.

I‘ve yet to try it on Christmas morning...... Might have to this year unless TSLA bucks up!

I preferred "And now live from Norwich". Top prizes of speedboats & Reliant Rialtos. 40 year old episodes of Bullseye still playing over on Gold/Challenge.

I've hunted around and no new money for $TSLA. Luckily gain is still above 500% (on average). Where can I get dry powder from?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tslynk67
Point being 50% in EU by 2027 is possible- 50% EV in the US likely is not.

There's simply not enough batteries being made (or projected to be made) by then given market share in China and EU is well ahead of US for EVs, so much new production will be focused there.

Projections are wrong all the time. The most successful investors don't rely on "professional projections" they take advantage of errors in the projections. It only takes a year to replicate a factory using existing technology. Raw materials and mining is a more complicated subject but the industry was jump-started a couple of years ago and so I don't think this will necessarily be a problem either.

I wouldn't throw my hands up and say 50% EV's by 2027 is physically impossible, if we don't make it by then it will be more likely due to recession, FUD, political action to protect the ICE industry (don't count this out) or other resistance to change than it will be due to not being able to manufacture enough batteries. I certainly wouldn't project 2027 battery output solely on the number of announced and existing battery factories. That's just silly.

But you are doing a good job of parroting the objections I hear the naysayers make all the time.
 
To be fair, the 10 yr rate was dropping for the biggest part of last week and TSLA went down anyway.
Really....I wish this comparison would die. We’ve seen plenty of trading evidence where TSLA drops when the 10 yr goes up and when it goes down. It’s just a convenient excuse for Wall St (and Gary) to use for manipulation
 
If you'd told me on Friday TSLA would be down 4.5%, I'd be shaking my fist at Elon.

But... SNL has nothing to do with this, methinks.

My SQ is also down a lot today :confused:
Yes, and today IMO was the planned response to something Elon might have done, but chose not to and wisely avoided giving them ammo. But they short it anyway, absent material reason.
 
We haven't visited the MA(200) since Spring 2019. It's at about 578 now and on an upward curve with a year's momentum behind it. This would be like ringing the dinner bell.

View attachment 661076

BTW, notice how the SP transited from Upper- to Lower BB in the last 4 weeks? And how it took 5 weeks to go from the Lower- to the Upper BB previously? Jus' sayin'...

"Lodger's Ten Rules for Investment Success[/I]": (c) 2021 - 3rd Revised Edition​

2. Stocks cycle through their Trading Channel in 4-6 wks; Practice Patience

Cheers!
That’s actually a great point to call out and I revise what I said earlier this morning about how far TSLA could fall on the downward trend. Breaking through the 200 MA for s company that’s posting Tesla’s growth would be probably the most absurd thing I’ve ever seen on Wall St and I’ve been investing for 12 years now
 
... or, Buy'n'Hold. :p
Lol.....yes! Absolutely! And to be clear I've always been 95-99% just HODLing.

I've learned my lesson(s) this past month with the help of the kind folks here. Buying weekly calls trying to catch a squeeze or spike is utterly moronic. Even when you get it absolutely right, half the time you end up executing wrong and spiral into self-loathing.

Purely looking at modest cost 2yr+ bull spreads from here on out, as discussed in the options threads. Moving back "permanently" to 99% HODLing.
 
Benzinga - minutes ago:

Driver Entered Car Before Texas Crash

Autosteer Unavailable at Texas Crash

Headlines Only:

National Transportation Safety Board Says Footage Of Vehicle In Apr. 17 Texas Tesla Crash Shows Owner Entering Driver's Seat

National Transportation Safety Board On Tesla Crash Says Autosteer Unavailable Where Crash Happened

And they are 'headline only' articles because the article itself would make the media look stupid for not fact checking and publishing false information...
 
Such a heartbreaking stock to hold. I don't have much to add here, just watching my portfolio slowly get eroded every day hoping that the winds will change, but never do. I still haven't ventured into Put buying, as history has taught me to stay in my lane as far as Options trading goes. Selling OTM calls seems to have garnered the most consistent results, and so I sit and HODL, selling some Calls every few weeks for lower and lower premiums, but man, the last few weeks have been frustrating as it feels like all I keep hearing is "Next quarter will be better" even though every quarter has been something that few outside of this board thought would ever be achievable five years ago. The FSD tweets are frustrating as well, and discussion around the timeline should just stop, as it's been laughably wrong to date. The progress is happening, but talking about it as if it is constantly around the corner is only hurting credibility.

I'm unfortunately at a crossroads in my own life where I may not have the option to play the long game for as long as I'd like, and that makes it tough to HODL through these times, and I need to remind myself of the spectacular run last year, and just how far we have actually come.

I feel far from alone in this prolonged feeling of malaise, and tell myself to keep on walking through these valleys as nothing has changed in the company, or the mission, but man, these walks get tiring sometimes.
Good cop/bad cop:
  • This is what you get when you invest in disruption: A bumpy ride. Buckle up!
  • Only when you have been in the deepest valley can you truly appreciate the view from the mountaintop. Have courage! Tesla the company has never been in better shape than today. Logic dictates, that sooner or later TSLA the stock will follow.
Edit: Oh, you have been in TSLA for 9 years, didn't se that post. Too harsh, perhaps then - sorry.
 
Couple of items market related:

Everything growth has been in the dumpster today, and Tesla is holding up better than a lot of other names.

Obviously there is Tax related selling, and also the news from IB who will be massively increasing the margin requirement for TSLA only accounts by my reading. They have sent a note that says they'd be assuming a worst case scenario of the lowest 20day moving average price of the top 2 largest positions, which I believe puts Tesla in the 160s. It won't be a margin call, but they'll stop you from opening new margin increasing positions.

Obviously one can buy a few deep OTM puts. But it's not clear whether that protection will be useful or worthwhile in your own portfolio management.

Anyways, near term there seem to be significantly more in-the-money puts than calls. As these puts are sold by these options holders, that should create a bit of tailwind towards the latter part of the week.

Thanks for this heads up. Where can I learn more about this margin note from IB? I haven't seen anything from them via email or message center.
 
Thanks for this heads up. Where can I learn more about this margin note from IB? I haven't seen anything from them via email or message center.
You are receiving this notice as the Initial Margin Requirement for your account is projected to increase, effective with the May 12, 2021 close of the New York regular trading hours. This increase results from a new methodology identifying the inherent risk of a portfolio concentrated in two positions. This requirement will work as follows:

  • A stress test which calculates the potential loss for each stock and its derivatives of, at minimum, a +/- 33% change in the price of the underlying stock or, for stocks that have significantly increased in value over the last year, a return in price to the lowest 20-day average price over the year.
  • The sum of the two stocks' (and their derivatives') requirements, reflecting the maximum loss in the above scenarios, will be compared to the aggregate portfolio's margin requirement. The greater of the the two will be the initial margin requirement for the portfolio.
Note that this change will have no impact on your Maintenance Margin Requirement at this time. However, any increase to the Initial Margin Requirement will adversely affect your ability to open new margin increasing positions and withdraw funds. You will receive an additional notification detailing the schedule for a similar increase in the Maintenance Margin Requirement. At this time, the only impact will be on the Initial Margin.

Before implementation, you should review the result to the account and adjust your position or overall capital situation to address the anticipated increase in the Initial Margin Requirements since margin impact is portfolio dependent. To evaluate the effect of this proposed change on your initial margin requirements, please see KB Article 2957: Risk Navigator: Alternative Margin Calculator and utilize the margin mode setting in Risk Navigator by selecting "Margin 20210513."
 
That’s actually a great point to call out and I revise what I said earlier this morning about how far TSLA could fall on the downward trend. Breaking through the 200 MA for s company that’s posting Tesla’s growth would be probably the most absurd thing I’ve ever seen on Wall St and I’ve been investing for 12 years now

I'm not a huge fan of technical trading, but it has to be important the 200 day MA will skyrocket over the next 2-3 months.

Share price was $420 200 days ago.
164 days ago it was $586.
143 days ago it was $695.
122 days ago it was $880.

That's gotta have some pretty dramatic impact on algos. So perhaps it can be held down through most of the low volume summer before the next dramatic leg up. That would be annoying, but would help with my non-TMC productivity.
 
I have set my positions and expectations accordingly. My frustration centers around my own personal situation where I no longer have years to wait for the momentum to build, P/E to drop and all the good things to fall into place. While I'm fortunate to have been around for the run-up, I don't believe I will be so fortunate to wait another 3, 5 or 10 years for the next leg.

I'm not naïve - I've got 9 years on this board. My original post was simply commiserating over the ups and down of TSLA. No more, no less.

I don't put any money in the market that I'll need in the next two years so this drop in share price is a non-event for me. I might break that rule but only if stocks were so cheap everyone thought it was the end of investing. In that case I would be betting the potential profit was worth having to sell the stocks at a potential loss if they kept declining.

To help alleviate the frustration with market downturns I recommend not viewing your stocks as cash. When the stock goes up, don't pay attention to that big dollar number labeled "Account Value". Look at the holdings you have inside the account, not the dollar number.
 
I don't put any money in the market that I'll need in the next two years so this drop in share price is a non-event for me. I might break that rule but only if stocks were so cheap everyone thought it was the end of investing. In that case I would be betting the potential profit was worth having to sell the stocks at a potential loss if they kept declining.

To help alleviate the frustration with market downturns I recommend not viewing your stocks as cash. When the stock goes up, don't pay attention to that big dollar number labeled "Account Value". Look at the holdings you have inside the account, not the dollar number.
But it's my best indicator of when to buy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: saniflash
NTSB Says Autopilot couldnt be engaged in Houston accident. NTSB Issues Preliminary Report for Fatal, Texas, Tesla Crash
Reuters - 13 minutes ago: Autopilot could not have been functioning in Tesla Texas crash, NTSB says

Excerpts:

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said testing showed Autopilot could not have been functioning in an April 17 Tesla Model S fatal crash near Houston, Texas because a key feature could not have been in use, according to a preliminary report released Monday...

The NTSB also said footage from the owner’s home security cameras showed the owner entering the driver’s seat and the passenger entering the front passenger seat.
 
or, for stocks that have significantly increased in value over the last year, a return in price to the lowest 20-day average price over the year.

Blighters! Just to be clear, for TSLA this implies a margin limit per share of about 165:

sc.TSLA.2021-05-10.1-Year.png


This limit translates into a margin limit of about 25%

Everyone should note that IB is a large brokerage, and could well set the margins stds for the industry. Plan accordingly.

Word.