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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If you have not done so already you all should check out the new report on Tesla by Holon global investments. They value Tesla today at 3369 USD/share. It is a well-researched and comprehensive report of 144 pages covering a lot of the broader competition as well as details on Tesla including a DCF economic model.

The report is available for download at their website:

Thanks to @Singy for drawing my attention to this.
Holon Global Investments, or the Cathie Wood of Australia, has a PT of 3300 on Tesla after doing research for the past12 months.

TLDR

1. High operating margins, going to 25%
2. Makes a car 3 times faster than competitor
3. Top automakers have high debt and low FCF generation
4. Automakers(like VW) has over 600k workers and 125 factories making over 100 different models, too complex to compete with Tesla

 
@DaveT interviewing Leo Koguan next week. Should be fun.

In other news, some of you consumed by someone called Missy may have missed that we have earnings today!

At least @Lycanthrope is ready for it:
49354735-10106691-image-a-10_1634630191060.jpg
 
NHTSA+NTSB can try all they want to, to slow down Tesla selling Autopilot and/or FSD - in the USA only. Not in any other countries.

Tesla can complete FSD and ship it in cars that go to other countries, if that's what the U.S. government wants.

Americans are going to be pretty angry+embarrassed if they see other countries enjoying FSD, and Tesla is blocked from selling it in the USA for purely political reasons. ("Political reasons" proved by the fact that it successfully works in the other countries of the world that allow it)
 
Refresh Model X getting set to add $1 Billion in revenue in Q4? ($100K * 10K deliveries) :D



Cheers!
 
And I continue to shake my head in disbelief as this hostility, given the fact that Musk is the ultimate American dream immigrant success story. He has founded multiple companies here that employ tens of thousands of people earning solid wages making products largely made in America
I think you know this:

"Elon is a capitalist.

The people in charge know that they can do it better. [You see this in the 'can't afford to hire talent' statement which should read 'unable to properly apply talent.']

And the people in charge have the moral high ground on this and all issues [because people (not naming names) voted for them].

Capitalism is not allowed to succeed, as it threatens power.

The American Dream never existed and was a bad idea anyway. Elon does not, cannot, exist. [because people (not naming names) voted for them]."

Sorry for the slight pejorative tone of this post.
But it is hard for a stock market (TSLA) to exist in a democracy where voters can be misled by putting a prefix of "Green" in front of their names to obtain one party power over geography and the people who live there.

Hate for capitalism is the litmus test, not hate for Elon, per se. You see a chicken/egg declaration in this quote:

“Are you excited or unnerved by the fact that most autonomous innovation is happening in the commercial domain rather than the military?

A little bit of both. I think it’s great when technology transitions away from the military into the commercial space. It’s good because it gives technology the chance to mature in a way it wouldn’t had it stayed inside the military. But the flip side is that the military government and Department of Defense contractors can’t afford to hire good talent to create capable and safe autonomous systems.



This post is overstated to hopefully improve recognition and create a brighter future for TSLA.
 
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Clearly not a friend of Tesla. In a October of 2020 Forbes article / interview Missy is asked and says:

Do you have a recent example of a time you've really pushed the perimeter?

I do it all the time with Elon Musk. I go after him regarding Autopilot. I love what he's doing at SpaceX and I love electric cars. I’m not bothered by him as a person, I just really want him to reconsider what he's doing with Autopilot because I think it's exceedingly dangerous. “



And:

“Are you excited or unnerved by the fact that most autonomous innovation is happening in the commercial domain rather than the military?

A little bit of both. I think it’s great when technology transitions away from the military into the commercial space. It’s good because it gives technology the chance to mature in a way it wouldn’t had it stayed inside the military. But the flip side is that the military government and Department of Defense contractors can’t afford to hire good talent to create capable and safe autonomous systems.



Adding more oil energy to the fire:

From @TeslaFacts on Twitter:

Question #8 to Missy Cummings:

In 2019 you falsely accused MIT researcher Fridman of improper conduct & "junk" science, attacking his data-driven Tesla research that contradicted yours.

Have you apologized to Friedman? Will you recuse yourself from Tesla decisions?

4:36 AM · Oct 20, 2021


TSLA.cummings.MIT.jpg


TSLA.cummings.MIT2.png
 
She has blocked me and a large bunch of other people, which indicates she has subscribed to the TSLAQ mass block list.

This is war.
Last week NHTSA said in a letter to Tesla:

“Given that NHTSA relies on reports from consumers as an important source of information in evaluating potential safety defects, any agreement that may prevent or dissuade participants in the early access beta release program from reporting safety concerns to NHTSA is unacceptable,”


Now we find out that NHTSA's new Senior Safety Advisor is blocking Tesla owners from contacting her..

If I was blocked by her I'd demand a full explanation from NHTSA and write letters to my elected representatives.
 
And I continue to shake my head in disbelief as this hostility, given the fact that Musk is the ultimate American dream immigrant success story. He has founded multiple companies here that employ tens of thousands of people earning solid wages making products largely made in America

Musk will reach mars, move there with a few millions of hard-core supporters and start a direct (non-representative) democracy guided by informal illuminati that will judge themselves by Elon.

Meanwhile the old Earth will continue to rot in hate, stupidity and partial interests, including such missies and johns.

It is inevitable
 
They're in on the early SpaceX/Starlink IPO discussions.
Great point if correct. Elon has an interesting tool if it turns out the StarLink IPO is enormous for the investment banks.

I did not like the way AJ tried to tie Tesla to BTC. Not helpful. AJ has changed his perspective obviously but his thinking remains a bit wobbly.
 
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TSLA moves against macros toward its Upper-BB on moderate vol in the early Pre-market:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,403.50 +5.00 (+0.03%)
As of 5:27AM EDT. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2021 05:30 AM ET.
Consolidated Last Sale$859.13 -5.14 (-0.59%)
Pre-Market Volume41,629
Pre-Market High$864.49 (04:05:55 AM)
Pre-Market Low$858.5 (05:12:28 AM)
 
I have a feeling all she wants is attention, no matter how - this offer to Elon imho shows this clearly
Agreed, Missy is in the same quandary as CNBC. They both desperately want/need EM to engage with them but he declines. NHTSA needs a relationship with Tesla and is struggling to find such an intermediary. EM, not so much.

This is not great but i don’t see it changing much. NHTSA speaks policy, EM speaks math. The ball is in NHTSA’s court but their options are limited.
 
Agreed, Missy is in the same quandary as CNBC. They both desperately want/need EM to engage with them but he declines. NHTSA needs a relationship with Tesla and is struggling to find such an intermediary. EM, not so much.

This is not great but i don’t see it changing much. NHTSA speaks policy, EM speaks math. The ball is in NHTSA’s court but their options are limited.

Just what are the NHTSA's options? Can they outright block the rollout of FSD without also having to block similar features for other manufacturers? And if they did, what are Tesla's options for fighting such a decision?
 
NHTSA can receive and potentially act on petitions, essentially complaints. For instance in this one, coming from one of TMC’s own, the NHTSA rejected the petition and did not open a safety investigation. NHTSA rejects petition for formal investigation into Tesla’s battery management software – TechCrunch

NHTSA can also fine companies for not complying with regulations for emissions and various safety issues.


Also see this account of the, mostly impotent, NTSB criticizing the NHTSA for being too permissive re driver assistance tech. Federal Agencies Clash over How Much to Regulate Self-Driving Cars
 
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Amazing. Lest you not think these people aren't hacks, when Missy "published" a "peer-reviewed" paper criticizing Tesla's Autopilot the day before AI Day, Joe asked what the DOI was (a way to locate known, fully published research papers).



Unsurprisingly, no response was given. But I just realized this did happen:

View attachment 723399
Despite that lack of response, the article itself appeared to be reasonably accurate. The software versions and vehicle-specific data were not in the article beyond that the vehicles one and three had 'different software versions' and vehicle two has FSD. The major conclusions that there should be some regulatory oversight and that use of agile techniques should still have software changes tested and documented are uncontroversial. Elon Musk has on occasion suggested as much.

Ms. Cummings is distinctly qualified for the proposed role. Specifically, she has very extensive experience with advanced aircraft control systems. In that context she absolutely knows the material between the Boeing 737 MAX MCAS (undisclosed to operators/pilots, largely untested, operated without notifying pilots) as well as the F-18. Both are excellent case studies for the development of better and fully documented control systems. The F-18, 100% fly-by-wire(FBW, is an especially relevant case: Also from aviation are another two cases from Airbus that demonstrate the risk of complacency.:
First, an airshow crash solely due to an exceedingly experienced pilot having overconfidence in the first commercial FBW aircraft:
Second, an Airbus A330 crash due to pilots ignoring pitot tube freezing:

Ms. Cummings knows very well the risks of inattention and overconfidence. She is NOT a critic of highly automated systems but she IS an advocate for careful documentation, driver monitoring and consistent timely warning of system inability to perform.

Her criticism of Tesla Autopilot is not idle nor is it ignorant. I do not believe she opposes their development and deployment. I don't even think she's anti-Tesla. She is acutely aware of both the positive and negative aspects of L2 systems including the papers invention of L2+.

Bluntly we all know these systems require careful use with diligent driver monitoring. That is what Level 2 implies, but many people do ignore the limitations and those people also get into easily preventable accidents. That in no way detracts from the obvious benefits including much lower accident rates and lower serious injuries and deaths in the Tesla systems. The dual edge of much safer but also high potential risk of inattention is quite perfectly analogous to the aircraft situations also.

She will argue for OTA updates to have rigorous vetting, and chances are high she'll argue for a formal standard for documentation. That need not even slow down OTA but it will require better release vetting and documentation. That will be "A Good Thing". It will also generate major controversy, such things are not easy.

Many may disagree but these are my views. With both FSD and FBW aircraft operation in my history, I really want better documentation, better alerting systems and driver training (maybe even some delivery-based trying would help).

Just think, please: Plaids are being delivered with ZERO instruction. When I got mine it was me who explained things to the delivery person. How can that be a good thing? I had never driven one until mine. I had read the entire manual multiple times (perhaps a residue of aircraft pilot type rating ground training habits) but I had never driven one.

How many accidents are happening because of bad training or none at all? Th spectacular ones are clearly the result of overconfidence, and ignorance can exacerbate that.

So, a does of Ms. Commings is, in my opinion, a good thing, overdue.