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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Rivian is currently trading at over $123b valuation. This would be higher than Tesla in March of last year when they had already sold over 1 million vehicles.

What the flip
Do I think TSLA is most likely to triple from here, or RIVN? Definitely TSLA for me. The problem with buying RIVN compared to TSLA in 2013, is that RIVN has already taken 100X of possible gains off the table (but not the risk of 100X losses). TSLA was just a few $Billion market cap when I started investing.
 
Lol, all the craziness today and we basically end down hardly at all!

Possible OT Rivian:


Rivian is currently trading at over $123b valuation. This would be higher than Tesla in March of last year when they had already sold over 1 million vehicles.

What the flip

I hope for Rivian’s sake they are building a massive war chest and planning on more than 1m by 2030.

 
I'm not complaining (after buying more at $995 and $990 this morning), but WTH?
You, me, and a few others is all. I still lost overall on the day while happy about the nice little gain. That's one reason I like to buy the dip right there.
And of course... You can never go wrong buying TSLA, even on your worst day.
 
What could the potential benefits be announcing any prearranged trades after selling on the market instead of before?

Seems much more logical to sell say 15 of 20 million shares pre-arranged first. Announce what those were sold at and then the market would have had no problem swallowing the remaining 5 million.

Seems like you do the opposite when you want the stock price to go down.

That would be backwards. any private sales would not be "announced" except on the mandatory SEC form 4's which are, of course, public. And those cannot be filed until the trades have been completed. I can't see the strategy of announcing private sales in advance, at least not in this situation. Of course, I've made my way by thinking in somewhat of a contrarian manner since I began investing.

One interesting possible way that Elon might have done this is to put the word out to other interested billionaires that he was giving them the opportunity to subscribe up to x million shares (of his personal holdings) at a price to be determined in the following general manner:

Elon would sell X million shares between two dates on the open market and the subscribers would pay the low price during the dumping period (or the 80th percentile low price, etc., in other words a better deal than they could hope to get by buying that many shares on the open market). There could be controls and guarantees that the price would be less than X dollars, etc. The possibilities are endless but the concept is that other billionaires could take a decent sized stake (or increase their stake) in TSLA at a price that was guaranteed to be considerably lower than the market price at the time the contracts were signed. Plus, the billionaires get to gamble more than simple old boring stock trading. They get in on a special offer. Elon gets to liquidate his 10% without totally crashing the price. The possible ways such deals could be structured are endless.
 
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You, me, and a few others is all. I still lost overall on the day while happy about the nice little gain. That's one reason I like to buy the dip right there.
And of course... You can never go wrong buying TSLA, even on your worst day.
Spot on. Today's prices represents a 20% decline from where we were less than two weeks ago. No-brainer.
 
Does that mean less than 30% sold and over 70% still to go? Pls tell me I am missing sth.

My -PUTs expire Dec 17 and extrapolating they may end up seriously ITM :(
that was number of transactions, _not_ shares, from S4 filed through saturday looks like perhaps 8+% maybe 11% or so.
i still need to “copy/paste” 7 pages of 300 transactions and do a =sum( ) to get shares, see if that number is close or similar to S4 forms, eat dinner, check for more forms, check for errors, all manually ☹️.
(and get in swimming , pool has dropped into the mid 80’s, but heated by PV😎) 26.6 north)
 
Before I get a lot of responses, please I'm in no way saying I'm selling or even remotely thinking of selling. In fact I'm looking at LEAPS with this continued drop.

BUT (and I've had this conversation here before and gotten a lot of disagreements), while I don't feel a CEO should go out of their way to pump a stock, a CEO also shouldn't be doing things to harm shareholders. And every shareholder is in different positions/situations in life which don't allow them to have the freedom I have to just hold until whenever I want.

Case in point, a friend is reaching out to me asking what I think the stock movement is going to be near-term because they need cash for a down payment. They've been a shareholder for many years, never sold a single share. This 25% drop for them means they have liquidate a lot more shares than they wanted. Yes every investor needs to ok with the money they have in a stock dropping at any time.....but they shouldn't afraid that their CEO will do actions that harm shareholders just to make a point.

I don't want to start a back n forth, so I'll just say I respect other opinions, this is just my own. I'm fortunate enough to ride with ups and downs and have no need for this money, but others aren't in that situation. 🤷‍♂️
If money was needed soon for a down payment, can you assume that the stock will only go up? Nope. But when the stock hit ATH at 12xx, that seems like as good as a selling point as any when needing the money very soon? TSLA is a volatile stock. I agree that one should not expect the CEO to make a point that drops the stock price, but there are plenty of external factors that can do the exact same thing with a volatile stock like Tesla. I'd argue that someone that needed to liquidate TSLA very near term that didn't do so during ATHs is just being caught being greedy because they did not want to miss the full squeeze. That's OK, but don't blame Elon for that gamble.
 


Was some twitter chatter this morning about movement of Elons jet yesterday, that it flew from TX to Teterboro NJ (nearish some major brokerage/banking houses), stayed for like 45 minutes, then came back- 7 hour roundtrip for a 45 minute stay so folks assumed some major important must-be-in-person finance thing.

Or maybe he just wanted some decent pizza, I dunno.
 
New investment opportunity, Elon Musk / SpaceX related, but also as an investment in itself

re SpaceX indirect ownership " .. . He managed to get Shift4 to participate in SpaceX's fund-raising round early this year and the company now holds $29.5 million of SpaceX shares at their original purchase price, which has already appreciated "

Follow up on my post from earlier today - disclosure: bought some stock and OCT '22 calls
 
If money was needed soon for a down payment, can you assume that the stock will only go up? Nope. But when the stock hit ATH at 12xx, that seems like as good as a selling point as any when needing the money very soon? TSLA is a volatile stock. I agree that one should not expect the CEO to make a point that drops the stock price, but there are plenty of external factors that can do the exact same thing with a volatile stock like Tesla. I'd argue that someone that needed to liquidate TSLA very near term that didn't do so during ATHs is just being caught being greedy because they did not want to miss the full squeeze. That's OK, but don't blame Elon for that gamble.

In his particular situation, he did sell in order to lock in gains, though not in the 1200's, in the 1000's/1100's in anticipation.

However, and this is the point I'm making, life happens. His lender came back and said he needed to increase his down payment. This was after the Tuesday selloff. And before people suggest taking out loans, going on margin, etc.....I'm not about to suggest to someone to take on risk.

Someone can have the best contingency plan but life happens. Lots of things can come out of the blue.
 
Me and this thread today

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Do I think TSLA is most likely to triple from here, or RIVN? Definitely TSLA for me. The problem with buying RIVN compared to TSLA in 2013, is that RIVN has already taken 100X of possible gains off the table (but not the risk of 100X losses). TSLA was just a few $Billion market cap when I started investing.
Magic 8 ball says, RIVN.
 
Was some twitter chatter this morning about movement of Elons jet yesterday, that it flew from TX to Teterboro NJ (nearish some major brokerage/banking houses), stayed for like 45 minutes, then came back- 7 hour roundtrip for a 45 minute stay so folks assumed some major important must-be-in-person finance thing.

Or maybe he just wanted some decent pizza, I dunno.
Does anyone know even if EM was ON the jet? Could have been a repositioning or pickup of some other party, or could have been there was a necessary part there in NJ that they needed? We can track the tail, but we can’t track the as..