Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hitchhiker]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466485792499552261

Clearly this means that Tesla is now going to make cyber-bombers for the air force. I can read the code.

 

[MC3OZ]

4680 capacity will be needed for more volatile energy dense chemistry for long range and performance vehicles, LFP doesn't need the same protection and can be made structural in prismatic formats.

It might be best to continue this discussion here:- Investor Engineering Discussions

 

[Thekiwi]

Theres no point in making LFP 4680s, the bricks CATL make are more than good enough and dont have the thermal issues etc that push tesle to nca cylindrical cells, plus they need all the space/energy density they can get.

Not to say it wont ever happen but its unlikely within any real meaningful timeframe

DBE dramatically reduces the cost, complexity & footprint of battery cell manufacturing - which is reason enough for Tesla to have as much of its own cell manufacturing as possible, in all chemistry variants. (AFAIK Tesla isn’t sharing the DBE tech with other cell manufacturers)

 

[Thekiwi]

The amount of Cybertruck-related merchandise being released does signal towards, at the very least, a reveal of final design/specs/features. It could signal something more substantial and surprising, such as an earlier start of production or a limited early production run. However, these latter possibilities are difficult to separate from hopes, when Tesla/Elon have publicly pushed back Cybertruck production and expectations due to battery supply. I suspect the only thing that would cause CT production to be pulled forward is a re-evaluation of battery strategy around Model Y. We've assumed Austin Model Ys are going to be, at some point, possibly from the get-go, 4680-based. We've then wondered about the differences between Austin-built and Fremont-built Model Ys - how different will a 4680-based vehicle really be? Could the 2170 and 4680 versions really be sold as equivalent? Then it was speculated that if 4680-based Ys are really going to be that different from the 2170-based vehicles (creating somewhat of an issue for regional order fulfillment - many people will have a preference one way or the other), maybe it will only be Y Performance that will be built in Austin with 4680s.

What if they just decided to keep US-based Model Ys the same across both US factories for the time-being, with the side effect being to free up Kato's 4680 cells for something else? Of course, I'm speculating off the assumption that battery strategy is the primary driver for pushing CT into late 2022, as opposed to any complexities of CT production itself.

EDIT: This is just pure speculation, most likely completely and utterly wrong. I was just thinking about the cascade of effects if Tesla went back and questioned the strategy of putting 4680s into Ys (in the US) first.

I see all this Cyber merch arriving this week as simply capitalizing on the Peak shopping season for gifts. Tesla‘s merch revenue for December will possibly be large enough to warrant a mention at earnings.

 

[Cattledog]

Clearly this means that Tesla is now going to make cyber-bombers for the air force. I can read the code.

Yeah, in impenetrable stainless steel. So does Cybertruck shape make it undetectable by radar?

 

[Ogre]

The amount of Cybertruck-related merchandise being released does signal towards, at the very least, a reveal of final design/specs/features. It could signal something more substantial and surprising, such as an earlier start of production or a limited early production run. However, these latter possibilities are difficult to separate from hopes, when Tesla/Elon have publicly pushed back Cybertruck production and expectations due to battery supply. I suspect the only thing that would cause CT production to be pulled forward is a re-evaluation of battery strategy around Model Y. We've assumed Austin Model Ys are going to be, at some point, possibly from the get-go, 4680-based. We've then wondered about the differences between Austin-built and Fremont-built Model Ys - how different will a 4680-based vehicle really be? Could the 2170 and 4680 versions really be sold as equivalent? Then it was speculated that if 4680-based Ys are really going to be that different from the 2170-based vehicles (creating somewhat of an issue for regional order fulfillment - many people will have a preference one way or the other), maybe it will only be Y Performance that will be built in Austin with 4680s.

What if they just decided to keep US-based Model Ys the same across both US factories for the time-being, with the side effect being to free up Kato's 4680 cells for something else? Of course, I'm speculating off the assumption that battery strategy is the primary driver for pushing CT into late 2022, as opposed to any complexities of CT production itself.

EDIT: This is just pure speculation, most likely completely and utterly wrong. I was just thinking about the cascade of effects if Tesla went back and questioned the strategy of putting 4680s into Ys (in the US) first.

I’m pretty sure they still don’t have an 8k Ton gigapress installed in Texas. That puts a pretty hard stop on Cybertruck production.

It’s possible they snuck it in in the middle of the night or that the recent delivery was actually a Gigapress in spite of the lack of IDRA branding and the fact that it was parked in the stamping area… but seems like a stretch.

Maybe there is some Cybertruck related announcement coming, but seems like a huge move forward in delivery dates is unlikely.

(I want it badly too)

 

[woodisgood]

I see all this Cyber merch arriving this week as simply capitalizing on the Peak shopping season for gifts. Tesla‘s merch revenue for December will possibly be large enough to warrant a mention at earnings.

That's what the devil's advocate in me said, but then the devil's advocate's devil's advocate said, "Why truck merch?" and "Hitting the store slightly later than ideal for gift-shopping."

 

[RobDickinson]

I’m pretty sure they still don’t have an 8k Ton gigapress installed in Texas. That puts a pretty hard stop on Cybertruck production.

AFIK they dont yet have the larger gigapress but theres fundamentally nothing stopping them from doing what they did with the model Y and splitting it into 2 parts which they bolt together.

 

[Ogre]

AFIK they dont yet have the larger gigapress but theres fundamentally nothing stopping them from doing what they did with the model Y and splitting it into 2 parts which they bolt together.

That would require 3 Gigapresses dedicated to the Cybertruck. Or retooling every couple of days to switch one set of dies for another.

Seems a stretch but maybe.

 

[woodisgood]

Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car

Toyota has reportedly partnered with China’s BYD to build a new affordable electric car to launch next year. The Japanese...

electrek.co

It was once rumored that Tesla and Toyota were working together, and also that Tesla was going to use BYD's blade batteries. These turned out to be false.

 

[MC3OZ]

AFIK they dont yet have the larger gigapress but theres fundamentally nothing stopping them from doing what they did with the model Y and splitting it into 2 parts which they bolt together.

That did occur to me, but we don't know the exact status of all the equipment and parts needed to build Cybertruck.

My best guess is the buildings are essentially complete, a lot of equipment is on site, and in the process of being installed.

For parts, who knows what is happening there?

Low volume test production of Cybertruck very late Q4 2021, or more likely sometime in Q1 2022, is about as far as my optimism will stretch.
In terms of the impact on cells for Model Y, maybe 50-100 fewer Model Ys produced per week, if this happens.

Or more likely Cybertruck starts around mid-2022 and by that time additional 4680 cell production is ramping.

All of this is dependent on what Elon has to say during Q4 earnings, we will have more of an idea of timelines after that update.

 

[MXWing]

That’s not true the leading ev’s GM doing well…..

GM is not an EV company. They might have tried to make some in the past and some half hearted offerings going forward.

I think GM is like some weird treasury bond. Doesn't do much but gets propped up by the US government.

 

[RobDickinson]

That would require 3 Gigapresses dedicated to the Cybertruck. Or retooling every couple of days to switch one set of dies for another.

Seems a stretch but maybe.

yeah a stretch, I dont expect it to happen but its not impossible. Austin will focus on getting that 4680 model Y line up and running then we'll see the CT

 

[SmokyPeat]

Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car

Toyota has reportedly partnered with China’s BYD to build a new affordable electric car to launch next year. The Japanese...

electrek.co

It was once rumored that Tesla and Toyota were working together, and also that Tesla was going to use BYD's blade batteries. These turned out to be

Good for Toyota. That partnership may keep them afloat. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Tesla may yet buy a number of BYD's LFP batteries. It's going to take time to get the 4680 manufacturing fully ramped. Tesla is probably shopping around for any high quality batteries they can get in quantity.

 

[redan]

Now other companies are getting into the act. The world notices what Tesla does (more free press!).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466535164251672581

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla Model Ys Flood Nanjing China DMV, Await Registration

The Nanjing Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) is literally flooded with Tesla Model Ys awaiting registration. Significant growth in the number of electric SUV registrations is associated with the entry into the market of its cheapest variant, the Standard Range, which is extremely popular.

www.tesmanian.com

TL;DR: Shows some pics and a video clip of the line-up of Tesla's at the Nanjing, China DMV awaiting registration.

"Tesla Model Y registrations in China continue to grow, and the situation at Nanjing DMV bears witness to this. The dozens of Tesla SUVs produced by Giga Shanghai, which are visible in the video, are the best confirmation that their number on the roads of the country is steadily growing."

 

[Darkfox021]

That's what the devil's advocate in me said, but then the devil's advocate's devil's advocate said, "Why truck merch?" and "Hitting the store slightly later than ideal for gift-shopping."

Why truck merch? - it's new, other merch is already available.

Hitting stores slightly later than ideal? - It's Tesla.

 

[RobDickinson]

It could be hitting the stores 13-14 months early?

 

[Ogre]

Now other companies are getting into the act. The world notices what Tesla does (more free press!).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466535164251672581

You can tell it’s a low quality knockoff, doesn’t even look like a real stainless steel noodle. Also, what’s with all the curves?

 

[Boomer19]

DBE dramatically reduces the cost, complexity & footprint of battery cell manufacturing - which is reason enough for Tesla to have as much of its own cell manufacturing as possible, in all chemistry variants. (AFAIK Tesla isn’t sharing the DBE tech with other cell manufacturers)

so no 3rd party will produce 4680s for teslas consumption? the ferragu/maurer interview seems to suggest otherwise …or, what am i missing?

our own wiki seems to say that as well;
Thread 'FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions' Wiki - FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions

• 4680 - third battery format introduced at Battery Day - size 46 x 80 mm, tabless design, dry electrode, pilot production at Kato Road/GF0, upcoming GF5 Texas, GF4 Berlin - also Panasonic, LG, and Samsung (sampling as of 7/2021), CATL (planned)
• DBE - Dry Battery Electrode introduced at Battery Day for Tesla new 4680, see above