Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

As we head into earnings, can they break out of this slump? 3 losses in a row and 5 out of last 6. So far this year, the average range of daily high and daily low is about double what it was last year. They have not been above 0.500 since being 1-0 after a blowout opening day win.

Today
Close:	918.40
Margin of W/L:	-11.60
Volume:	28,865,302
High - Low:	48.05
Season
Record:	6-10
Total margin of wins:	240.93
Total margin of losses:	-379.31
YTD gain/loss:	-138.38	-13.1%
Price/52 week high	73.9%
Best Win:	143.00	Jan 3
Worst Loss:	-74.66	Jan 13
Last 10:	4-6
Streak:	L3
Avg margin of victory:	40.16
Avg margin of defeat:	-37.93
Avg Volume:	26,640,546
Avg Volume of Last 10:	28,952,329
Avg High - Low:	64.80
Avg H - L of Last 10:	56.32

 

[Thekiwi]

Interesting Pierre Ferragu tweets. I like where he's heading:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486113844489601035

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486124806378594306

Pierre is great! But what sort of crazy mofo attempts to build a 2030 $10 Trillion valuation model for Tesla without including massive revenue & profits from OPTIMUS (robots).

Just like Henry Ford dreamed of car for every house, gates dreamed of a computer on every desk & Jobs dreamed of a computer in everyones pocket - I truly believe there will one day soon be a humanoid robot in every home, and hundreds of millions in the workforce.

 

[MXWing]

Bingo card is ready for Wednesday. LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[TheTalkingMule]

As we head into earnings, can they break out of this slump? 3 losses in a row and 5 out of last 6. So far this year, the average range of daily high and daily low is about double what it was last year. They have not been above 0.500 since being 1-0 after a blowout opening day win.

Today
Close:	918.40
Margin of W/L:	-11.60
Volume:	28,865,302
High - Low:	48.05
Season
Record:	6-10
Total margin of wins:	240.93
Total margin of losses:	-379.31
YTD gain/loss:	-138.38	-13.1%
Price/52 week high	73.9%
Best Win:	143.00	Jan 3
Worst Loss:	-74.66	Jan 13
Last 10:	4-6
Streak:	L3
Avg margin of victory:	40.16
Avg margin of defeat:	-37.93
Avg Volume:	26,640,546
Avg Volume of Last 10:	28,952,329
Avg High - Low:	64.80
Avg H - L of Last 10:	56.32

The 10 year regular season is over. Playoffs start tomorrow.

 

[Bet TSLA]

We need a good question asked via SAY during earnings that asks Tesla if they are committed to a service center quantity / capacity per unit sold...what that ratio has been historically, what that ratio is today, and what that ratio needs to be in the future. Additionally, they ought to be asked to report the progress against such a metric, periodically in the future....or something like that.

No. No we don't. The proper answer to such a question is zero, because the best service is no service. Tesla will no doubt endeavor to have the right capacity to deal with problems, while doing their best to prevent the problems from ever happening. There is no use explaining this on an earnings call.

 

[ZeApelido]

“You led Mary Jim. You led and it matters”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486095712207216648

 

[kengchang]

We need a good question asked via SAY during earnings that asks Tesla if they are committed to a service center quantity / capacity per unit sold...what that ratio has been historically, what that ratio is today, and what that ratio needs to be in the future. Additionally, they ought to be asked to report the progress against such a metric, periodically in the future....or something like that.

It's been going up every quarter

 

[StealthP3D]

“You led Mary Jim. You led and it matters”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486095712207216648

It's just embarrassing to have some of the largest private American industrialists begging for free money at the federal teat just to make their business financially viable when Tesla is showing them how to do it the old-fashioned way.

Jim Farley tomorrow:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla (TL0) opened at Tradegate in Berlin about 10 min ago:

Trading at around €824.60 → U$931.31 +1.41%

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's just a muddy field he was driving in...

(And yes I said something to Lara on Twitter today as well on that topic)

I don't get it. It was Linette Lopez who made the in famous "muddy-field" face-plant about Giga Shanghai: (Teslap)

Cheers!

 

[samppa]

Interesting what effects incentives can have:

Dealer Offers To Drive a Tesla Model 3 for FREE for Six Months

Imagine driving a Tesla Model 3 free, for six months. A freelance car dealer from the Rhineland made its customers an insane offer in the summer: They can drive a Tesla Model 3 for free for six months and then give it back. Now he starts the action again. However, there are a few conditions to...

www.torquenews.com

 

[cricketman]

Pierre is great! But what sort of crazy mofo attempts to build a 2030 $10 Trillion valuation model for Tesla without including massive revenue & profits from OPTIMUS (robots).

Just like Henry Ford dreamed of car for every house, gates dreamed of a computer on every desk & Jobs dreamed of a computer in everyones pocket - I truly believe there will one day soon be a humanoid robot in every home, and hundreds of millions in the workforce.

Pierre is along the right lines, but his 8 year cash forecast is very conservative imo. And thats still ignoring robo-taxis

Average selling price for Teslas even at 20m per year will not be $25k and especially not in 8 years time. I suspect it will continue to be around $45k-$50k meaning it will come down relative to inflation

And insurance and energy will be 3-5 times higher than Pierre's forecast

So I expect $1.5t revenue and $370bn profit (at 25%). This would make Tesla worth $15t at Pierre's 40x multiple.

 

[Baumisch]

No. No we don't. The proper answer to such a question is zero, because the best service is no service. Tesla will no doubt endeavor to have the right capacity to deal with problems, while doing their best to prevent the problems from ever happening. There is no use explaining this on an earnings call.

Top negative arguments when speaking to german peers on tesla are build quality and service - built quality everyone thinks will be adressed by made in germany this year - but service is still bad, you can watch KnowYouKnow video on details - but from my perspective in Germany there needs to be a corporate commitment on good service.

 

[S3XY]

Not sure if you missed this but @buttershrimp has been a part of this and the "other" thread for a long time and is a sarcastic one for sure and I love him for it.
So I would put a small wager on him just playing around.....

What? No 'Breaking News' banner?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's a snapshot of early trading action in Berlin (TLO) taken just moments before the pre-Market opens on NASDAQ in NYC:

Note: €837.40 eur is about U$945.25 (@10:00am C.E.T.)

Meanwhile, U.S. Tech macros were strongly GREEN just before the pre-Market opened in New York City:

Nasdaq 100 Mar 22 (NQ=F)​

CME** Delayed Price. Currency in USD​

14,307.25 +166.50 (+1.18%)​

As of 03:58AM EST. Market open.​

EDIT: Data is flowing now from NASDAQ in NYC:

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Jan 26, 2022 04:15 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale (delayed 15 min)	$939.98 +21.58 (+2.35%)
Pre-Market Volume	43,036
Pre-Market High	$945.00 (04:14:32 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$936.20 (04:00:10 AM)

Cheers!

P.S. **CME is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which hosts futures trading (and many Options, too)

 

[mars_or_bust]

Excellent Microsoft (up 3.3% premarket currently) results and guidance seem to have perked up the high-tech market. Probably a good setup for a certain quarterly earnings report later today

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Pierre is along the right lines, but his 8 year cash forecast is very conservative imo. And thats still ignoring robo-taxis

Average selling price for Teslas even at 20m per year will not be $25k and especially not in 8 years time. I suspect it will continue to be around $45k-$50k meaning it will come down relative to inflation

And insurance and energy will be 3-5 times higher than Pierre's forecast

So I expect $1.5t revenue and $370bn profit (at 25%). This would make Tesla worth $15t at Pierre's 40x multiple.

Discount Pierre's $10t valuation back to today at 12%/year and it would mean Tesla should have a valuation of $3.1t now.

Pierre seems pretty conservative in his estimates for energy (which is more than just megapacks), FSD (expects a price crash to $1.2k-2.4k), does not try to estimate "Real-world A.I." (which I assume includes robotaxi, bots, etc.) and does not include new lines of business: Dojo as a service, HVAC or the 20 odd "start-ups" that currently only have Tesla as an internal customer.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FSD (expects a price crash to $1.2k-2.4k),

I think its more likely that this "revenue per vehicle" amnt for FSD represents Pierre's assumption of just a 10%-20% take-rate for FSD (w/o further price increases).

Pierre is massively wrong. As long as Tesla remains production constrained, buyers will have to COMPETE for a new Tesla (same way you can 'cut to the front of the line' right now by ordering special paint or high margin wheels).

By the time Model 1/Robotaxi is ready for production (2028?), it will ONLY be possible to buy one with FSD (since there won't be a steering wheel). I estimate target annual production volume for Model 1 to be 10M units/yr. With an FSD price of $35K (and the cost of the hdw being ~$15K), that's a $50K ASP with a gross margin of ~70% on 10 Million units.

That's $350 billion gross profit per year, JUST on Model 1 / Robotaxi. At Pierre's 40x multiple, just that one single product line would add $14 TRILLION dollars to TSLA's Market Cap.

And it only gets better if Tesla operated the robotaxi's themselves (which Pierre poo-poo's), or when Tesla sells FSD as a monthly subscription instead of an outright purchase. Then, Commercial licences for fleets of course will be higher... And did I mention that a Model 1 / Robotaxi purchase may require Tesla Insurance? Yeah, more than $14T just from Robotaxi.

TL;dr Pierre isn't just sandbagging FSD, he's building a vacation home on Sable Island.

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

“You led Mary Jim. You led and it matters”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486095712207216648

"…there's more to be done to help make this plan a reality". THAT'S an understatement is I ever heard one.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Premarket looking juicy. Happy earnings day everyone. Fingers crossed.