Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

It may be possible with the current bleeding edge technology to create a robot, which could fetch materials from a warehouse. But what would that robot cost? My WAG is that at least 100 kUSD. Why would you rather not pay someone $ 10/hour to do that?

That is exactly the question. The real costs are more though, to Amazon that robot replaces a worker with a 10% absentee rate, a high rate of workers injury claim, and probably $22/hour so a real costs of $35 an hour probably. Of course Robots break down and have issues. Lots of people ignore those challenges and sometimes the uptime is far less with robots than good employees. Then you need scale, you want repetitive activity that can be trained but over time the NNs might make the robot more competitive.

Amazon has spent billions automating factories, they continue to look. They just haven't, to date, had someone in a silly suit dancing on stage.

I think having a robot bot would be great for many menial task and for helping monitor elderly and assist elderly with household chores, etc. I don't see a bot as necessarily a great replacement for many tasks. Tactile issues, which are a big deal, are dismissed by many posters that don't understand how hard that is. In this regard, Tesla/EM statements on FSD are coming back to the fore. It's always been next year. Well as far as I know noone has really solved the critical tactile challenges with humanoid robots. It doesn't matter what the NN can instruct if the mechanical bot can't perform. Humanoid bodies are amazing, it's going to be much harder to replace than some here believe.

 

[Matias]

I don't see a bot as necessarily a great replacement for many tasks. Tactile issues, which are a big deal, are dismissed by many posters that don't understand how hard that is. In this regard, Tesla/EM statements on FSD are coming back to the fore. It's always been next year. Well as far as I know noone has really solved the critical tactile challenges with humanoid robots. It doesn't matter what the NN can instruct if the mechanical bot can't perform. Humanoid bodies are amazing, it's going to be much harder to replace than some here believe.

That is why I envisioned warehouse use. If stuff is in shelves coded with barcodes and rigid, it is relatively easy for robots.

On the other hand it is almost impossible for a robot to go to an unfamiliar house and make a cup of coffee.

 

[elasalle]

What a thought! It’s actually possible that a Starship full of TBots could be mining asteroids by mid-decade.

If only Adam Jonas had thought of this and put it out in his space research note

 

[mars_or_bust]

Bottom line, here is why Elon should not be on earnings calls:

The people asking questions are interested in next quarter’s margins, and Musk is interested in multiplanetary civilizations.

However, that is precisely why I WANT him on earnings calls.

 

[Freder Reeve]

an entire civilization can be started on any celestial body with the right raw materials, merely by transporting there two fertile humans and one bot.

just send the building blocks with the bots, they'll be our creators and raise us once they've created our habitat (superman-ish)
we keep finding new reasons we suck at space-life

 

[JRP3]

Right. The thought has probably not escaped Musk that once a bot can make a bot, then an entire civilization can be started on any celestial body with the right raw materials, merely by transporting there two fertile humans and one bot.

Humans not required.

 

[PeterJA]

...Well as far as I know noone has really solved the critical tactile challenges with humanoid robots. It doesn't matter what the NN can instruct if the mechanical bot can't perform. Humanoid bodies are amazing, it's going to be much harder to replace than some here believe.

On what do you base this opinion? Have you studied the field before you tell us about it, "as far as you know"?

I know virtually nothing about it, but I learned a little from watching this video posted by @SarahsDad:

 

[inconel]

Right. The thought has probably not escaped Musk that once a bot can make a bot, then an entire civilization can be started on any celestial body with the right raw materials, merely by transporting there two fertile humans and one bot.

Made me realize that I don't know this: what is the minimum number of humans to start a viable human civilization? I imagine there would be consanguinity issues with just two humans.

 

[nativewolf]

Half (47%) of the flemish car owners delay their purchase of their next car because they don’t know whether to buy ICE, hybrid or BEV: DPG Media Privacy Gate
30% delay because of less car usage due to covid. 6% delay because of long wait times (If that sounds strange, I’m in that case too: I want a new Model S, but can’t even order it. Even if I could order it, I want to wait until it’s clear what I’m buying. I’d rather buy one with 4680 batteries and longer range, like the plaid+ version that was cancelled.)

This survey is making it clear that the ICE vendors have to pass the valley of death (or how was it called by aunt Kathie, or was it uncle Tony?) where lower ICE demand causes lower margins that can not be offset by their EV sales.

Thanks for that tidbit. We also call this an Osborne effect, they are talking about EVs but don't have them to sell so people stop buying ICE and wait. Frankly for most people this is something that can be stretched out 1-3 years before replacement is needed.

I feel Tesla has also OSborne'd itself with the 4680. It's such a better format and the longevity should be so much higher that right now I'd simply wait to buy a Tesla without 4680s. Combined with the advantages of the structural battery pack and dual castings I would definitely not purchase a model y without both. I've canceled the reservation we had for a Y. Waiting for Austin to start producing and for some guarantee that Tesla is not shipping other Ys from freemont to Virginia. We can wait a year.

 

[2daMoon]

Exactly. Imagine how much Tesla's productivity will explode once this ball gets rolling. It will be unprecedented.

Summed up nicely in SMR's shortest video yet... only it is humanity's productivity that explodes.

 

[CaliBear1]

As to bots, Tesla is already on the leading edge of deploying robots in useful ways. It’s already a core competency. And having a robot in a humanoid form, capable of human movement, has already been accomplished. Adding cameras to a bot? Trivial.

But, if you can get the bot to really see, then you’ve unlocked an enormously new use case for them. Not everything Tesla is doing for FSD will be applicable to a humanoid bot’s needs, but most of that expertise should be transferable.

I doubt this will be monitized fast enough to impact the SP over the next few years, but long term, the market for “seeing bots” is massive.

A seeing car is just one subset of seeing bots.

A seeing bot in humanoid form is just another subset of seeing bots.

There will be flying seeing bots, digging seeing bots, exploring seeing bots.

FSD is the tip of the iceberg. Giving sight to mechanical objects is ….big….no, huge…no, godlike.

Since it’s still the weekend.

EM’s pivot to bots and FSD software has me thinking. I love all the altruistic applications for use of Tesla Bots, from fighting fires to handling repetitive dangerous jobs to mining precious metals in the asteroid belt and terraforming Mars. However, we often compare EM to the fictional Tony Stark. And Stark made his money through military tech and hardware. There will soon be a huge hunger in the military for all things electric. As AI improves along with the battery size to efficiency ratio, the military will put in huge orders for all sorts of EVs. And, as manufacturing efficiency increases at scale and cost per unit declines, it’s hard not to imagine deploying “terminator” robots in place of most human troops.

I know EM has expressed concerns about “evil AI,” but I’m not sure where he stands on military applications of Tesla tech. And this reality is almost upon us. I’m sure it makes many here uneasy. It certainly concerns me. I love the idea of keeping young men and women out of harm’s way, but this might also make the political calculation to enter a conflict much too easy. And, while Tesla “Battle Bots” and other Tesla-powered military EVs would bring untold riches to the company and its investors, I’m not sure I want my wealth built upon such applications.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It just dawned on me…bots making bots is the ultimate “machine that builds the machine”. Mind blown.

I'd recommend to all (re)reading the 1947 novelette “With Folded Hands” by sci-fi author Jack Williamson. Remarkable early imagination of the potential implications of humanoid robots and unintentionally misdirected AI.

 

[JRP3]

I’m sure it makes many here uneasy. It certainly concerns me. I love the idea of keeping young men and women out of harm’s way, but this might also make the political calculation to enter a conflict much too easy. And, while Tesla “Battle Bots” and other Tesla-powered military EVs would bring untold riches to the company and its investors, I’m not sure I want my wealth built upon such applications.

It's going to be "We have to do it before they do it". Probably inevitable.

 

[2daMoon]

Since it’s still the weekend.

EM’s pivot to bots and FSD software has me thinking. I love all the altruistic applications for use of Tesla Bots, from fighting fires to handling repetitive dangerous jobs to mining precious metals in the asteroid belt and terraforming Mars. However, we often compare EM to the fictional Tony Stark. And Stark made his money through military tech and hardware. There will soon be a huge hunger in the military for all things electric. As AI improves along with the battery size to efficiency ratio, the military will put in huge orders for all sorts of EVs. And, as manufacturing efficiency increases at scale and cost per unit declines, it’s hard not to imagine deploying “terminator” robots in place of most human troops.

I know EM has expressed concerns about “evil AI,” but I’m not sure where he stands on military applications of Tesla tech. And this reality is almost upon us. I’m sure it makes many here uneasy. It certainly concerns me. I love the idea of keeping young men and women out of harm’s way, but this might also make the political calculation to enter a conflict much too easy. And, while Tesla “Battle Bots” and other Tesla-powered military EVs would bring untold riches to the company and its investors, I’m not sure I want my wealth built upon such applications.

This is a valid concern. However...

The purpose of military is generally about securing power, whether that be energy, money, commerce, labor, resources, etc. the purpose of most military action is defending from those wanting to take these things, or conquering those who have these things.

What will it be like when these things are easily available to all because there are no shortages of sunlight and batteries to provide energy, and there is no shortage of "man"-power (bot labor) to do the work?

What, exactly, will be the purpose of war when everyone already has all they want or need?

The future is so bright that those bots better be making shades for the the rest of the human race to wear as there will be less and less to fight about because the basis of tribal envy has been addressed.

Food for thought.

 

[mongo]

Thanks for that tidbit. We also call this an Osborne effect, they are talking about EVs but don't have them to sell so people stop buying ICE and wait. Frankly for most people this is something that can be stretched out 1-3 years before replacement is needed.

I feel Tesla has also OSborne'd itself with the 4680. It's such a better format and the longevity should be so much higher that right now I'd simply wait to buy a Tesla without 4680s. Combined with the advantages of the structural battery pack and dual castings I would definitely not purchase a model y without both. I've canceled the reservation we had for a Y. Waiting for Austin to start producing and for some guarantee that Tesla is not shipping other Ys from freemont to Virginia. We can wait a year.

You might wait, but not everyone can/ will/ cares.

Next year's/month's/week's Tesla is always better than today's, yet people still buy today's .
Teslas are arguably better than many other cars sold today, yet people are buying those other cars.
Tesla has a 3ish month backlog on everything, demand is not an issue.
Are 4680 structural pack Y's better? Sure.
Outside of a direct A-B drive off, would a purchaser even notice? Doubtful, especially if coming from a non-Tesla. (Range figures excluded)

 

[Lessmog]

This is a valid concern. However...

The purpose of military is generally about securing power, whether that be energy, money, commerce, labor, resources, etc. the purpose of most military action is defending from those wanting to take these things, or conquering those who have these things.

What will it be like when these things are easily available to all because there are no shortages of sunlight and batteries to provide energy, and there is no shortage of "man"-power (bot labor) to do the work?

What, exactly, will be the purpose of war when everyone already has all they want or need?

The future is so bright that those bots better be making shades for the the rest of the human race to wear as there will be less and less to fight about because the basis of tribal envy has been addressed.

Food for thought.

Marx my words?

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes. If that robot lasts two years without any maintenance. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that with 100k you get two years free maintenance and free back up copy during the downtime.

How much does the employer pay for the robot’s health insurance? Zero.

How much for 401k/retirement benefits? Zero.

How many hours does it work per day? Maybe 22?

How many lawsuits does it bring against the company? Zero.

Worker’s comp? Disability? Zero.

Does it require a manager to keep it motivated? No.

Does it require annual reviews? No. Does it have to stop for lunch? No. Pee break? No.

Does it get tired? Get distracted? Take holidays? No, no, no.

I could go on, but a robot provides so many benefits over just comparing an hourly cost to a human worker. Apples to oranges. Cost of a $100k robot easily pays for itself within a couple of years.

 

[NicoV]

I feel Tesla has also OSborne'd itself with the 4680. It's such a better format and the longevity should be so much higher that right now I'd simply wait to buy a Tesla without 4680s.

Luckily for Tesla, there are enough people not willing to wait for 4680. Like everybody getting a company car. And most first time Tesla buyers have barely enough info about driving an EV that they are not aware of the 4680 arrival. And Tesla will definitely make sure that anybody wanting 4680 will pay a premium for it until there is enough 4680 supply. EV’s are expensive enough that demand can be easily steered by pricing.

 

[brantse]

Bottom line, here is why Elon should not be on earnings calls:

The people asking questions are interested in next quarter’s margins, and Musk is interested in multiplanetary civilizations.

I completely agree with this. My vote would be for Elon to not participate in quarterly earnings call and to hold an annual technology roadmap during the annual shareholder meeting.

 

[Todd Burch]

It wouldn't surprise me if half or more of Tesla purchasers have no idea what “4680” or “2170” even mean.

“Is that the number of cylinders or time between oil changes?”