Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BitJam]

Why would the government of Germany, as a matter of course, allow Tesla to come in and destroy 20-25% of the GDP of their country by allowing Tesla to annihilate all of their globally revered brands in short order.

Their only other option was to have this exact same thing be done by a European factory outside of Germany. This is why building the Gigafactory in Germany was brilliant. It will be easier to get Germans to transition to Teslas when they are built in Germany.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

“So, on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call.”
-EM Q4 earnings call

There is a lot going on behind the scenes for future products and it was obvious that Elon wanted the earnings call focus to be on 2022 execution.

I am really looking forward to each and every one of those product launches!

Agreed! I've listened to a number of Elon's one-on-one interviews talking about products or technology. He comes across as a great communicator, very knowledgeable about everything going on in his companies, let alone about a great deal of other issues. And he seems so laid back about it. Wealthiest man in the world and seems like someone you could sit down and have a beer and interesting conversation with. But on these calls, he comes across as a little stiff, nervous, uncomfortable. I don't think he is comfortable in front of, or talking to, large groups. I can relate-hate talking in front of a group!

Concerning Cybertruck, yeah, as an enthusiast it's disappointing that they aren't coming out this year. But, given that only 2 CT protos have been spotted, it's been pretty clear that production wasn't imminent (though I've been in denial). There is a lot of tooling and equipment to be purchased, built and installed and that will take a good bit of time. And that won't happen for a bit, until the design is finalized-which won't be done until more prototypes are built. Financially, frankly, not a big deal given the financial performance of the company. As an enthusiast, it gives us something to look forward to, there will be plenty of new protos to see and discuss, equipment installs to discuss, etc.

217% YoY earnings growth, 30% automotive gross margins. That alone makes the future look very bright. FSD, robotaxi service, humanoid robots? All gravy.

 

[sherwood2016]

long time lurker, first time poster here. I feel this week's drop has more to do with WS coordinated bear raid than an earning call, cybertruck delay or perceived delay of 25K model. After P&D report on 2nd, most retail knew TSLA will have a huge beat from reading TMC and some analysts. so the most likely action is to pile on calls, probably big time, especially those ending this week and maybe next. I certainly did. Option is a zero-sum game, the other side took equally big position on the short side. The advantage WS has is their power can be coordinated, among a few big players. It didn't take much (only average volume on Thursday) to bring down SP by 11%.
Also the price action on Thursday is different from typical post bad earning trading patterns, where the price typically opens way below prev day's close, fluctuates all day. TSLA went continuously down from slightly up pre-market to close at -11%.

 

[Buckminster]

Someone made an observation that is missing Tesla Energy.

All those bots hired out (to get to a $1000T market cap) will be working on energy and every other industrial sector from here to the asteroid belt.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon hasn't said it yet but a big driver for Optimus will be his concerns over depopulation.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I hate to say it but, since the selection of Berlin for a Giagafactory, I have been very skeptical about the reality of the Gigafacotry becoming a producing plant for Tesla. Why would the government of Germany, as a matter of course, allow Tesla to come in and destroy 20-25% of the GDP of their country by allowing Tesla to annihilate all of their globally revered brands in short order. I'd like to be wrong about this, but the bottom line is that Tesla could be popping out 10's of thousands of Y's and 3's at this juncture, but they are not. JMO.

As Shanghai ramps even more, Tesla can still flood the market with model Y’s. In fact, they can intentionally flood the German market with 3/Y’s.

If German officials don’t get their act together soon, I expect Tesla to do just that. Then German officials will have to answer as to why all of these sold Tesla’s in Germany are made in China instead of Germany. Germany has zero leverage

 

[Ogre]

Elon hasn't said it yet but a big driver for Optimus will be his concerns over depopulation.

This checks out.

I’m Elon’s age. If there is nobody to push the economy along behind us the economy is going to be a mess when we are 70.

 

[[email protected]]

I struck up a conversation here in Florida today with someone from Switzerland. His son is about to graduate college there, and I asked him what his son plans to do after graduation. "He wants to work for Elon Musk. But he knows how unlikely that is, because everyone wants to, and it's super competitive to get a job at one of his companies."

I am in agreement with the many posters here that Musk is a poor public speaker, particularly on earnings calls and product launches. He rambles, he digresses, he mumbles.

Yet despite all that (or partly because of it?) the graduating class of 2022 is completely enamored with him. So, before you post another rant about Musk's shortcomings, ask yourself this: How many people in this world want to work for you?

One thing kids might like is that In his spare time, Elon lands rockets back on their pads, two at a time, when he is not busy with other diversions. Forgetting that little magic trick (that happens to disrupt such likeable, friendly corps as Lockheed and Boeing...), Elon has enough for himself, but still dedicates his energy to solving our collective problems. In an age of consuming self-promotion, self-enrichment, and self-interest, people connect strongly with his humility and unique care for the community. Elon has the respect and admiration of my 19 year old...and she loathes Bezos.

 

[ZeApelido]

pics of installed MegaChargers, apparently 7-8 ft tall!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487615646665875458

 

[Artful Dodger]

It didn't take much (only average volume on Thursday) to bring down SP by 11%.

Thursday's volume in TSLA was 49.0M shares (with 2.2M in the bloddy pre-Market). That's well above the TSLA 10 Day Average Volume of 32.6M shares.

In fact, based on YTD volume stats, Thursday's trading was 2.0 Standard Deviations above average. That was more than enough to kick the ball rolling downhill, especially with asymetric market assess for Retail during the pre-Market.

This was a bear raid, pure and simple, conducted by Wall St. thugs who were on the wrong side of the trade, knew that in advance, planned for it, and fleeced naive retail investors in the event (Options, Stop Losses, Margin Calls...) "Thanks for playing. Ready Player 2." Paging @Unpilot

The following 2018 article is from the Warton Business school where Elon attended: (8-min audio podcast included)

'Bear Raid' Stock Manipulation: How and When It Works, and Who Benefits

When Bear Stearns collapsed in March, some insiders argued it was wrong to blame the firm's risky bets on mortgaged-backed securities. They had another culprit: malevolent traders working together in the upside-down world of short sales -- making money by knocking down Bear's stock. There has...

knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu

You also made this comment:

TSLA went continuously down from slightly up pre-market to close at -11%.

TSLA was hardly up in the pre-Market (big players intent was signalled early to all). The brief upswing 15-min before the Market opens is a common way for large investors to get out of the way w/o a loss, but notice the SP tanks well before ANY retail investor who is restricted to trading off-hours could sell. Here's the Realtime Pre-Market chart from NASDAQ

Very good first comment BTW. Welcome to TMC, and looking forward to your contributions in the future!

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla did not reiterate your thoughts during the EC...even when asked.

No, because there was no comment at all about geographical expansion. Given capacity constraints these developments probably will be 2024 Orbison, thus Elon says thrybare not working on a smaller car right now.

 

[Drumheller]

pics of installed MegaChargers, apparently 7-8 ft tall!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487615646665875458

Nice of Tesla to give Frito-Lay a PS5

 

[aubreymcfato]

After a week, let me blow some steam:

• Options: it's gambling. Risky by definition. You win some, you lose some. Either way, don't come here to flex or cry. Your money, your choice, your responsability.
• Stock price: I'm one of the less investment-savvy guys here, but even I understand the power and sleep-inducing features of just hodling. It's free, it's effortless, it's safe. Try it.
• Fundamentals: good. I heard nothing bad in the call. Yes, Elon's gonna Elon. We know that.
• Manufacturing: Elon is at his best in the real-world hardware context. His mental model of the world is incredibly detailed, it is what he does best. His first principle reasoning his the strongest in this context. He said that manufacturing is the most complex thing in the world, I believe him. I remember few years ago being shocked and uneased when he said that he wanted Tesla to be the best manufacturer in the world. I thought he was exaggerating. He proved me and millions people wrong. If he wants Tesla to focus for a year in manufacturing in 4 gigafactories, this is incredibly bullish for me. He wants to focus on the Machine itself. I don't know what's not to like.
• Robot: I don't get it, too futuristic for me. But I have no data at all, my opinion weighs 0. I don't care to have an opinion about this. In these years I learnt that sometimes you just gotta wait to see things to understand them, or have an opinion. So I'll wait.
• FSD: @Discoducky said that "software has no first principles". I kinda agree, it's a more complex world, and Elon's mental model here is more flawed, more error prone. FSD will arrive, eventually, but the politics and communication aspect of it will be difficult. Brutal, even. I'm very happy that things are going well with 60k beta-tester, hopefully things will improve quickly and we'll not see a fatal/severe crash.
• Tesla Energy: Loved that they were laughing at the prospect of growing 4-5x in one year. Tesla Energy is a function of the supply chain. Hopefully that will get sorted this year. I love this industry. IMHO this could buy a lot of good publicity for Tesla. It's less controversial than EVs, it's paired with solar and wind, speaks at the environmentalist side.

 

[NicoV]

Half (47%) of the flemish car owners delay their purchase of their next car because they don’t know whether to buy ICE, hybrid or BEV: DPG Media Privacy Gate
30% delay because of less car usage due to covid. 6% delay because of long wait times (If that sounds strange, I’m in that case too: I want a new Model S, but can’t even order it. Even if I could order it, I want to wait until it’s clear what I’m buying. I’d rather buy one with 4680 batteries and longer range, like the plaid+ version that was cancelled.)

This survey is making it clear that the ICE vendors have to pass the valley of death (or how was it called by aunt Kathie, or was it uncle Tony?) where lower ICE demand causes lower margins that can not be offset by their EV sales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice of Tesla to give Frito-Lay a PS5

To return the favor then, shouldn't Frito-Lay give Tesla some chips?

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

If you ever feel down that the market doesn't get Tesla, I suggest putting this search into Google:

site:https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/ tesla

To see how much Tesla lives rent free in the minds of the market space, search:
site:https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/ tesla adam jonas

Spoiler: And, if you ever need a quote to take out of context, here's a doozy:

"From a consumer perspective, you're going to be judged on and compared with Tesla's Cybertruck, and that means certain requirements around battery size, powertrain efficiency -- they're going to be difficult to compete with. "
...
Mark Reuss -- President GM
"So I don't think there's anything inside GM that's going to compete with that either."

General Motors Co (GM) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
In context isn't much better:

John Murphy -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Thanks. When I think about the extremely high truck returns that you mentioned, I harken back to the beginning of the presentation and the Hummer truck. From a consumer perspective, you're going to be judged on and compared with Tesla's Cybertruck, and that means certain requirements around battery size, powertrain efficiency -- they're going to be difficult to compete with. And then internally you're competing with very high margin -- the truck segment. So how do you balance those two? Do you have to sacrifice one for the other? Or do you think that you can have your cake and eat it too?
Mary T. Barra -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, first of all, I think we can have our cake and eat it too, because I think understanding the truck buyer and understanding those will be initially attracted to the GMC Hummer EV, and we think it's accretive to what Dhivya talked about and I'll let Mark talk about the proof points.
Mark Reuss -- President

I can't answer everything on how that truck -- our competitions are going to actually come to market with that and when. So a little bit hard to tell from what [Indecipherable] inside information on that. But what I do know is that what we're going to deliver hasn't been really shown in its entirety yet. And I think we're here to win. We're not here to compete. So I don't think there's anything inside GM that's going to compete with that either.
It sort of will be a very different application. Time is up, Rocky, I know. But I don't think -- I think we are here to win. So that's all I'm going to say, and I feel really good about it and you haven't seen the interior, you haven't seen the exterior. I think on May 20, and you'll see that. Hopefully, you will feel as good as I feel. I think you will.

 

[Matias]

While I agree with most of your post and I wish to thank you for it, I disagree with one of your conclusions. I believe that algorithms would be quite sufficient to make a robot useful in a limited world such as a warehouse or supermarket. Not only useful but useful this year at a reasonable cost and a profit to the robot manufacturer.

It may be possible with the current bleeding edge technology to create a robot, which could fetch materials from a warehouse. But what would that robot cost? My WAG is that at least 100 kUSD. Why would you rather not pay someone $ 10/hour to do that?

 

[jschwefel]

It just dawned on me…bots making bots is the ultimate “machine that builds the machine”. Mind blown.

 

[Sancho]

long time lurker, first time poster here. I feel this week's drop has more to do with WS coordinated bear raid than an earning call, cybertruck delay or perceived delay of 25K model. After P&D report on 2nd, most retail knew TSLA will have a huge beat from reading TMC and some analysts. so the most likely action is to pile on calls, probably big time, especially those ending this week and maybe next. I certainly did. Option is a zero-sum game, the other side took equally big position on the short side. The advantage WS has is their power can be coordinated, among a few big players. It didn't take much (only average volume on Thursday) to bring down SP by 11%.
Also the price action on Thursday is different from typical post bad earning trading patterns, where the price typically opens way below prev day's close, fluctuates all day. TSLA went continuously down from slightly up pre-market to close at -11%.

Spot on. Those of us buying calls expiring this past week and next (and I’ve been guilty of this in the past) just give the hedgies a nice juicy target to aim at. All they needed was general fear in the market over interest rates and they could drive the SP down, and few people wanted to catch a falling knife.

You think Musk is the problem? No, it’s us!

Stop gambling, people. Don’t feed the monster.

 

[Nolimits]

It just dawned on me…bots making bots is the ultimate “machine that builds the machine”. Mind blown.

Bingo