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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I don't think it is "only" a matter of TSLA speed. The SEC is clearly NOT doing its job, and IMHO keeps old processes and obscure/ complex regulations in place to allow for loopholes letting naked shorts go on without fear of getting caught...
You might find it odd than I agree with most of what you say. Having worked with and around multiple countries financial systems I do agree that the SEC, Federal reserve System and the Controller fo the Currency have been steadily diminished in effectiveness since the Glass-Steagall Act, the McFadden Act and others ahem been repealed. That has been exacerbated when Bernie Madoff became Chairman of Nasdaq and led transition to electronic trading. The SEC lost control and failed even to understand the basic role of the DTC, no surprise because only a handful of typically not-senior people understood it. (I could write a volume on the DTC role in all this, but nobody probably would understand it except people who really would not care).

Despite all that, the problem really are mostly not structural IMHO. They are essentially political but not in terms of D or R or even L or R.

The Tesla situation is directly analogous because all the regulatory systems, specifically in the US have been systematically dismantled. That ends out with incompetence nearly everywhere. Thus Tesla is the poster child of systemic threat. Remember the amount of debt and political clout exists from the combination of NADA, large oil companies and oil-dominated States plus traditional OEMs. Putting those together makes the Tesla success a huge threat to the status quo.

None of that is a problem of regulatory structure. IT is a problem of the Citizens United decision coupled with cancellation of the FCC Fairness Doctrine and growth of Cable vs broadcast. Those changes directly produced the polarization fo the present day together with Tesla opposition. Why?

In short Tesla has direct sales. Tesla has OTA updates and OTA diagnostics. Even that might not create the situation, but Space X has decimated the entire space industry.

When I use the words "Tesla speed" this are shorthand for overcoming all the impediments above. We cannot forecast Tesla success without understanding how consequential the changes will continue to be. Giving other BEV access to Superchargers and promising to license FSD, plus patent openness are all steps to reduce the intensity of attack.

Remember Standard Oil, Edison, AT&T when we see Tesla exponential growth. We may be hopeful that Elon does.
Still, the post 1970's dismantling of government makes the risks higher for TSLA.

I remain long. The preceding should make us all quite cautious.My mitigant is that shareholders in AT&T, Standard Oil and Edison really did quite well anyway.
I am not forecasting a Tesla breakup, yet.
 
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I disagree strongly with a carbon tax, lots of negatives there. First, it creates justified animosity towards EV owners/drivers, if those driving ICE are penalized. Second, it drives up the cost of ICE, which reduces the pressure on EV manufacturers to make better, more desirable and most importantly less costly vehicles, which is what will ultimately increase adoption. As Tesla had demonstrated so well, build a highly desirable car and people will buy it.

Before I go further, I need to ask-is it acceptable to discuss specific legislation or government actions on here that may impact Tesla's business or stock price? How about other companies, either suppliers/potential suppliers or the impact of TSLA on competitors? I looked through the first couple post on the thread and didn't see any discussion of what was acceptable (and if there is one, please supply a link!). Thanks.
The thing is, there is no "perfect" solution. Just human attempts at solving a carbon problem.

Maybe our AI overlords will figure it out.
 
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Yes, this is due to FSD Beta (public release doesn't handle stop signs) doing rolling stops at 4 way intersections. This was added to assertive mode around Oct 20th (and, while more humanish, does likely violate state laws)

Tesla to recall nearly 54,000 vehicles that may disobey stop signs
This will get you a ticket in DC and fairfax county va, fyi. IF they have red light ticketing systems they trigger on rolling stops. Ask me how I know
 
While GF Berlin get's stalled ....


Volkswagen announced the complete transformation of its Zwickau plant from an ICE to EV production factory last week on Thursday, January 27, 2022. The Zwickau plant is officially producing VW’s sixth all-electric vehicle, the ID.5.


+ There are talks/rumors of the environmental groups being funded by people with deep pockets/competition? Truth will likely come out in the end.
Maybe a GFgate just like dieselgate :)

++ Hat tip to Mr Diess on executing internally and appearing to butter up Elon on the outside ;) :)
Not sure how anyone can say Berlin is stalled, they aren't ready to produce.

And looking at Austin and Berlin factory videos, I am really glad that Musk and Co are focusing on getting these open for modelY and batteries before the CT, Semi, and STFU car. [F= FUD, even from the non Q crowd]. Get this production up and running, then move on. Besides, without the better 4680, who wants the semi or CT?
 
I can see where programing the vehicle to break traffic laws is a bad idea. One accident involving a rolling stop would not be good even if that action were not the cause.

On the one hand, I have issues with a robot car being programmed to break the traffic laws. On the other hand I realize this issue has a lot to do with improper signage (so many stop signs should be yield signs), road markings and poor lines of sight. Hard to decide how to deal with this but I’m in favour of following the laws except when doing so is disruptive and/or unpredictable behaviour to fellow motorists.

Four way stops do need to be a hard stop though as when one stops indicates who has the right of way and not stopping is too vague, especially for an autonomous vehicle that can’t signal intent with eye contact or a wave of the hand.
 
The thing is, there is no "perfect" solution. Just human attempts at solving a carbon problem.

Maybe our AI overlords will figure it out.

The solution is making EVs and renewables better/cheaper than ICE and fossil fuels. We’re about 80% there and will probably be 100% there by about 2025. By about 2035 the gap will be enormous and EVs/RE will be grossly superior.
 
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Not sure how anyone can say Berlin is stalled, they aren't ready to produce.

And looking at Austin and Berlin factory videos, I am really glad that Musk and Co are focusing on getting these open for modelY and batteries before the CT, Semi, and STFU car. [F= FUD, even from the non Q crowd]. Get this production up and running, then move on. Besides, without the better 4680, who wants the semi or CT?
Exactly. They clearly were not ready having only filed paperwork in December right before holidays. Some posters on here perpetuate a myth re delays in Germany but it does not help anyone make an investment. Berlin is going to be awesome but this year awesome waits on chips..:(.
 
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's not how it works. Elon only has to pay the Income taxes (53%) once, at the time he excercises. Then when he finally sells the shares, he'll pay 20% Capital Gains tax on the appreciation in the share value.

That's always going to work out to be less total tax (income + capital gains) payable if he excercises at a lower price than he sells. Look at the two extreme cases:
  • Low Tax Rate Scenario: If Exercise Price = SP, then over time the SP goes to infinity, Elon pays a blended tax rate of 20% (all capital gains at sale, income tax portion paid at exercise becomes just a rounding error)
  • High Tax Rate Scenario: If Elon exercises and there is no appreciation in the SP before he sells, he pays exactly a 53% blended tax rate (all tax paid at exercise, wotj 0 Capital Gains at time of sale)
I am not an accountant (the Dean and I did agree on that single point), so I'll simply step aside and ask more experienced members to chime in. Paging @st_lopes ;)

Cheers!

Elon cares about the financial impact to the company. So, regardless of any impact to his personal situation, exercising at a lower price would offer a substantial reduction in employee compensation taxes to Tesla. This impacts the bottom line directly.
 
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Humans break traffic laws when they see fit. So if rolling stops can't be implemented, what's to stop another recall for allowing you to drive 1 mph or more above speed limit while on FSD?

I can guarantee that anytime a company, Tesla or otherwise, actually rolls out a system that self drives (ie a human is not responsible for any part of the DDT during some period- so L3 or higher) it will obey all speed limits and not go even 1 mph over.

In those states that currently allow self driving cars on public roads one rule every single one has in common is such cars must obey all traffic laws.
 
Just to add on to the above, I really, really don’t think most people realize just how cheap solar + LFP storage is going to get.

A utility-scale LFP mega pack at $150/KWh with 10,000+ cycles is a ~1.5c storage cost. That’s less than the fuel+O&M cost of NG(3c) coal(3.5c)and nuclear(2c).

Utility scale solar is already under 3c for total LCOE and dropping, far cheaper than anything else. With the above LFP batteries, solar LCOE + storage costs beat out NG combined cycle LCOE costs(4.5-6c).

Also, with generation and storage both distributed among consumers outages will become an increasing rarity.

Eventually the problem will be what to do with our giant summer energy surplus… which IMHO should be a national “water grid” that pumps and distributes desalinated water all over the country, that can also double as a seasonal battery itself.
 
This will get you a ticket in DC and fairfax county va, fyi. IF they have red light ticketing systems they trigger on rolling stops. Ask me how I know

Virginia is probably the most aggressive state in the country when it comes to traffic/speeding citations/enforcement. I’m not sure any other state comes close.
 
No. Tesla is the 6th most valuable company in the world so it's already doing a pretty good job of reflecting value.

I am against spinning off Tesla's disparate businesses (just as I was in favor of SolarCity merger). On that we agree.

But I fail to see how the fact that Tesla is the 6th most valuable company in the world supports the notion it is fully valued. My question to you would be: What companies do you think should be valued higher than Tesla?

Once you do that exercise, you just may realize that TSLA is perhaps not valued as highly as you originally assumed.
 
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