Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zextraterrestrial]

Not sure if this belongs in investor thread? & missed it in the pages of? If it was posted

-Any one seen or know the January production #’s from Shanghai? Was there some New Years break in there too?
Thanks

 

[Singuy]

Bulls and bears battle at qqq 360

 

[nativewolf]

Just to add on to the above, I really, really don’t think most people realize just how cheap solar + LFP storage is going to get.

A utility-scale LFP mega pack at $150/KWh with 10,000+ cycles is a ~1.5c storage cost. That’s less than the fuel+O&M cost of NG(3c) coal(3.5c)and nuclear(2c).

Utility scale solar is already under 3c for total LCOE and dropping, far cheaper than anything else. With the above LFP batteries, solar LCOE + storage costs beat out NG combined cycle LCOE costs(4.5-6c).

Also, with generation and storage both distributed among consumers outages will become an increasing rarity.

Eventually the problem will be what to do with our giant summer energy surplus… which IMHO should be a national “water grid” that pumps and distributes desalinated water all over the country, that can also double as a seasonal battery itself.

Yes! This year there are supply issues that will constrain both solar and even the power electronics for the LFP solutions plus scaling the LFP. Next year should/could roil the markets.

 

[BornToFly]

Humans can only look in one direction at a time. Rolling stops are dangerous with human drivers because during a quick glance in each direction, they might miss another vehicle or cyclist going through the intersection that has the right-of-way. But a Tesla has 8 cameras and can look everywhere at the same time. Autonomous vehicles that can safely do a rolling stop should be allowed to. This is another example of regulators not understanding the technology. There is a reason Tesla allowed it in the programing.

 

[H Mak]

I am against spinning off Tesla's disparate businesses (just as I was in favor of SolarCity merger). On that we agree.

But I fail to see how the fact that Tesla is the 6th most valuable company in the world supports the notion it is fully valued. My question to you would be: What companies do you think should be valued higher than Tesla?

Once you do that exercise, you just may realize that TSLA is perhaps not valued as highly as you a=originally assumed.

We're in complete agreement. The fact we think it is undervalued is why we are so heavily invested. My point was to question the point the poster was making about splitting into sub-companies and how that would realise its true value. The 6th largest company comment was to emphasise how much it has already grown its market value, not to say it was fully valued.

 

[ggr]

Mod:

Funnily enough, yes, moderators do sleep, as well as managing companies or toddlers or whatever else consumes most of their time beside doing voluntary moderation of this forum.

15 off topic or banned subject posts deleted. I almost certainly didn't get all of them. But discussion of what Elon should/shouldn't/did/didn't tweet and/or COVID and/or politics should cease.

--ggr (or maybe it's grrrr...)

 

[StealthP3D]

This is not a bear raid or any other wack a doodle. It is a sickly market that as someone once said is "guilty until proven innocent".

Brian Shannon, CMT's tweet - "@Norseman1 correct, all below decl 5DMA so bounces should be treat as such, just a bounce for now" - Trendsmap

Detailed Tweet Analytics for Brian Shannon, CMT's tweet -

www.trendsmap.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1232719067095732224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1232720183363559425

It's healthy for the market to question the future of the economy and just how much future value the current price of various stocks should represent. This is a normal function of markets, finding balance.

But I would suggest that this normal market weakness has been unfairly punishing what should be the shining star in uncertain economic conditions and/or market nervousness. Some of that is due to a misunderstanding of Tesla and therefore an under-estimation of what their primary strength is (efficient production). The market should be championing the leader in efficient production, especially in uncertain economic conditions. More efficient production is just what the doctor ordered to counter-act worries about a weaker economy. In difficult times the most efficient manufacturers can gain ground against competing interests The market is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. But invariably there is also the component of bad actors using this opportunity to unfairly punish TSLA further. The fact that this should be expected by anyone with their eyes open does not make it legitimate.

By my estimation, TSLA should be worth ~$2500 in a highly speculative bullish environment and ~$1200-$1500 during a "risk-off" phase of the markets like we have now. But I don't expect the markets to reflect reality accurately when the biggest market participants don't fully understand Tesla and how strong their fundamentals are, and that bad actors are using this opportunity to further punish and discredit TSLA, and profit while doing it.

I know the markets are imperfect in these ways, which is why I don't use market prices to judge the worth of companies. And I recommend investors who want high returns don't either. This kind of thinking is not good for efficient markets either. Markets best serve their underlying purposes when the flaws in the markets are not amplified by people using market prices to impact their own valuations of the components of the market. It's also better for an investor's individual performance to avoid being misled by the misunderstandings of the market as reflected by mispricing's in the market. These are the very irregularities that a good investor capitalizes on in order to realize superior returns! That ability is hampered/negated when the pricing irregularity is afforded credibility. Always value the long-term value of a company independent of the current market price.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Totally agree. He is aligning himself with utter bampots. Sorry, I am a crazy liberal medical professor working on public health epidemiology directly and that is where I stand.

What a well balance message board ! Never seen such balanced likes and dislikes !

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is not a bear raid or any other wack a doodle. It is a sickly market that as someone once said is "guilty until proven innocent".

Brian Shannon, CMT's tweet - "@Norseman1 correct, all below decl 5DMA so bounces should be treat as such, just a bounce for now" - Trendsmap

Detailed Tweet Analytics for Brian Shannon, CMT's tweet -

www.trendsmap.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1232719067095732224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1232720183363559425

Or it's the same MMD we see on like 40% of trading days. It just feels different because everyone is on edge.

 

[elasalle]

Exactly. They clearly were not ready having only filed paperwork in December right before holidays. Some posters on here perpetuate a myth re delays in Germany but it does not help anyone make an investment. Berlin is going to be awesome but this year awesome waits on chips...

GF was supposed to open last year.
They got permission to build and test 200 cars then 2000 cars. These cars are sitting in the parking lot and can't be sold. Still awaiting red-tape and a final OK.

If permissions were granted tesla could have sped up time internally( and run into supply issues etc).

Factory almost built, but zero cars delivered to customer. Let's use delivery as the metric to track. GF Berlin hasn't earned a single penny. cheers!!
(Elon himself was there Octofest time hoping for a better outcome).
Damn the bats, lizards and cardbox trees

 

[Singuy]

Or it's the same MMD we see on like 40% of trading days. It just feels different because everyone is on edge.

So far so good. Today is a good short at resistance, take profit kind of day. However so far we have buyers preventing qqq from tanking. If shorts can't take out 360 then it'll be pretty scary for them going forward as 360 is a very easy resistance to attack. All eyes on today's close.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's healthy for the market to question the future of the economy and just how much future value the current price of various stocks should represent. This is a normal function of markets, finding balance.

But I would suggest that this normal market weakness unfairly punishes what should be the shining star in uncertain economic conditions. Probably mostly due to a misunderstanding of Tesla and therefore an under-estimation of what their primary strength is (efficient production). The market should be championing a leader like Tesla, especially in uncertain economic conditions. The market is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

By my estimation, TSLA should be worth ~$2500 in a highly speculative bullish environment and ~$1200-$1500 during a "risk-off" phase of the markets like we have now. But I don't expect the markets to reflect reality accurately when the biggest market participants don't fully understand Tesla the company and how strong their fundamentals are.

I know the markets are imperfect this way which is why I don't use market prices to judge the worth of companies. And I recommend you don't either. This kind of thinking is not good for efficient markets. Markets best serve their underlying purposes when the flaws in the markets are not amplified by people using market prices to impact their own valuations of the components of the market. It's also better for an investor's individual performance to avoid being misled by the misunderstandings of the market as exemplified by mispricing's in the market. These are the very irregularities that a good investor capitalizes onto realize superior returns! That ability is hampered/negated when the irregularity is afforded credibility.

Was thinking this morning about contingency plans if we tread water here or go up/down into March.

I know @The Accountant is working feverishly to revise 1Q EPS estimates upward in light of the absurd 4Q numbers. I'm starting to think 1Q might be nearly a full 50% beat on earnings from the current "concensus".

We had what....$700M in tax charges that now go away? Seems TMC was also surprised to not see and of the myriad credits taken in 4Q to balance out the tax expense. Isn't there a large chance both those factors reverse in the 1Q numbers?

Do you think banks are well aware of this and have factored it into their internal models? Because as of now 1Q EPS Street estimate is like $2/share. We could land within shouting distance of $3/share if any credits are applied this quarter.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Humans can only look in one direction at a time. Rolling stops are dangerous with human drivers because during a quick glance in each direction, they might miss another vehicle or cyclist going through the intersection that has the right-of-way. But a Tesla has 8 cameras and can look everywhere at the same time. Autonomous vehicles that can safely do a rolling stop should be allowed to. This is another example of regulators not understanding the technology. There is a reason Tesla allowed it in the programing.

Exactly, once the roads are built for autonomous, stop signs will not need to exist.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I can guarantee that anytime a company, Tesla or otherwise, actually rolls out a system that self drives (ie a human is not responsible for any part of the DDT during some period- so L3 or higher) it will obey all speed limits and not go even 1 mph over.

In those states that currently allow self driving cars on public roads one rule every single one has in common is such cars must obey all traffic laws.

Disagree.

You don't think most will offer the option "Cruise 10% over posted limits and accept any tickets that may result"? If they don't enable their system to drive at the same speed as prevailing traffic, it pretty much guarantees their feature will fail IMO.

 

[ZachF]

An old fashioned MMD? How quaint!

 

[ZachF]

Was thinking this morning about contingency plans if we tread water here or go up/down into March.

I know @The Accountant is working feverishly to revise 1Q EPS estimates upward in light of the absurd 4Q numbers. I'm starting to think 1Q might be nearly a full 50% beat on earnings from the current "concensus".

We had what....$700M in tax charges that now go away? Seems TMC was also surprised to not see and of the myriad credits taken in 4Q to balance out the tax expense. Isn't there a large chance both those factors reverse in the 1Q numbers?

Do you think banks are well aware of this and have factored it into their internal models? Because as of now 1Q EPS Street estimate is like $2/share. We could land within shouting distance of $3/share if any credits are applied this quarter.

What’s the current street estimate for 2022 earnings? I could use a good laugh…

 

[Knightshade]

Disagree.

You don't think most will offer the option "Cruise 10% over posted limits and accept any tickets that may result"? If they don't enable their system to drive at the same speed as prevailing traffic, it pretty much guarantees their feature will fail IMO.

Since it would literally be illegal for the car maker to put that system on the road in any state that allows self driving today- no I don't think any will offer that option.

This is pretty cut and dried under current law.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

s

What’s the current street estimate for 2022 earnings? I could use a good laugh…

I believe it's $10.10 EPS for 2022.

If you want a really good laugh, go read the summary of what that analyst that downgraded TSLA put out last night. Borderline Flat-Earther logic going on there

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What’s the current street estimate for 2022 earnings? I could use a good laugh…

Yahoo shows 1Q22 avg street estimate at 2.24 (thought I saw it at like 2.08 for some reason, maybe I did a few days ago).

2022 avg estimate is a whopping $10.1......<---literally lol

Maybe they're trolling us?

 

[StealthP3D]

I can guarantee that anytime a company, Tesla or otherwise, actually rolls out a system that self drives (ie a human is not responsible for any part of the DDT during some period- so L3 or higher) it will obey all speed limits and not go even 1 mph over.

In those states that currently allow self driving cars on public roads one rule every single one has in common is such cars must obey all traffic laws.

Rules are rules and apply to humans and machines alike. But, from a practical perspective, even proficient humans take liberties with the rules, and I suspect machines will also, particularly if they are trained by proficient humans. The fact that the law requires a full stop at a stop sign did not prevent the "California Stop" from becoming a mostly accepted thing.

Years ago I was hitchhiking solo through Mexico and was picked up by two young Mexican refrigeration mechanics on vacation in their VW Gulf. Going through small towns with traffic cops visible, I asked the driver if he wasn't concerned about an expensive traffic ticket as he barely slowed down for many of the stop signs, he only slowed down to 15 mph before accelerating through them. He replied as if I couldn't see the obvious, "The policeman will see there are no cars coming just as well as I can", not a problem." He did get a ticket for accidently going down a narrow one-way street the wrong way even though it wasn't properly marked where we entered it.

The fact that an autonomous car could get a ticket for doing a rolling stop does not necessarily imply that autonomous cars will never do rolling stops. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds in actuality. Autonomous driving will change everything in unknown ways.