Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Yahoo shows 1Q22 avg street estimate at 2.24 (thought I saw it at like 2.08 for some reason, maybe I did a few days ago).

2022 avg estimate is a whopping $10.1......<---literally lol

Maybe they're trolling us?

Remember what Gary said. You want the street to be low enough so Tesla will always beat vs miss. Street have been consistently 15% lower than real results which is a good thing (and it's why GJ lose sleep at night, fraustrated that the street consistently sandbagging "on purpose").

 

[Knightshade]

Rules are rules and apply to humans and machines alike. But, from a practical perspective, even proficient humans take liberties with the rules, and I suspect machines will also, particularly if they are trained by proficient humans. The fact that the law requires a full stop at a stop sign did not prevent the "California Stop" from becoming a mostly accepted thing.

Except tesla just had to issue an OTA recall because it is illegal (and that's just an L2 system it gets far more significant for L3+ under current law)

Again, a car maker can not put an L3+ system on the road in any US state legally unless they certify it will obey all current traffic laws

Including speed limits.

The idea any car maker would ignore the law and release a system in violation of such law, when they (not the driver) would be assuming all liability for it, is simply absurd.


This issue isn't "the car could get a ticket"

The issue is it's illegal to even put that system on the road with that capability under current law.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Remember what Gary said. You want the street to be low enough so Tesla will always beat vs miss. Street have been consistently 15% lower than real results which is a good thing (and it's why GJ lose sleep at night, fraustrated that the street consistently sandbagging "on purpose").

Funny to think of even this ridiculous $10.1 2022 EPS estimate from the street. If SP stays flat, that's a PE of 92. At our conservative EPS estimate around $16.5, that's a PE of 56. Same as Walmart......who is showing a staggering 3% y-o-y growth.

At some point, earnings will matter.

Did I just say that on a Tesla fan forum? Times have changed!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Remember what Gary said. You want the street to be low enough so Tesla will always beat vs miss. Street have been consistently 15% lower than real results which is a good thing (and it's why GJ lose sleep at night, fraustrated that the street consistently sandbagging "on purpose").

GJ purposely pulls a huge number out of his @** and Tesla finds some way to beat it...then he looks like a genius saying "Listen...we knew revenue would come in at $XX...the street sandbags their estimates, not us...but....(insert>>>"essentially......yada yada")

 

[Drumheller]

Since it would literally be illegal for the car maker to put that system on the road in any state that allows self driving today- no I don't think any will offer that option.

This is pretty cut and dried under current law.

Let's be confident that VW will do it, if they survive long enough to develop their own system

 

[Discoducky]

Except tesla just had to issue an OTA recall because it is illegal

To be clear, the human is still in control and is the one who is committing the illegal activity. The setting isn't illegal, the actual not stopping is illegal.

The system needs to have a setting where it *always* comes to a complete stop and that must be default.

Nothing is stopping Tesla from having a setting that does rolling stops, but it must NOT be default.

 

[growler23]

Just to add on to the above, I really, really don’t think most people realize just how cheap solar + LFP storage is going to get.

A utility-scale LFP mega pack at $150/KWh with 10,000+ cycles is a ~1.5c storage cost. That’s less than the fuel+O&M cost of NG(3c) coal(3.5c)and nuclear(2c).

Utility scale solar is already under 3c for total LCOE and dropping, far cheaper than anything else. With the above LFP batteries, solar LCOE + storage costs beat out NG combined cycle LCOE costs(4.5-6c).

Also, with generation and storage both distributed among consumers outages will become an increasing rarity.

Eventually the problem will be what to do with our giant summer energy surplus… which IMHO should be a national “water grid” that pumps and distributes desalinated water all over the country, that can also double as a seasonal battery itself.

Is this price/kWh correct for LFP? I ask because this post, more than anything recently, makes me bullish on the near future of the energy market overall and by extension, Tesla Energy.
Storage cost has been the Achilles heel of renewables, for both good (and FUD-amplified) reasons for decades. Storage is needed to some extent, and storage has been painfully expensive per kWh stored.
For context, I have read a recent story about a local Montana community that passed ordinances to make wind power effectively illegal in their area - to be able to keep their money-losing coal plant open and its jobs around for the foreseeable future. That coal plant must be even more expensive than the NG combined cycle plants that ZachF quotes, given all we know about coal in general. As much as that story depressed me, this information about cheaper storage makes me believe these rearguard, anti-profit, anti-earth actions cannot stand for long. Yes local jobs are an issue, but yes, repurposing coal plants and installing wind power would create new jobs.
At least I hope they cannot stand. Fossil fuel interests are insinuated into local and state governments exceedingly deeply.
This makes me more bullish for Tesla Energy, and for those who follow me, I was already "bullish AF" since Elon listened to me and is going to flood the US market with high-desirability Model Y's* for the next year. Those Model Y's are just large enough to tempt the SUV-addled US customers into coming over to our side. Anyone else remember when this finally happened with the Prius? Eventually enough people knew someone with one that they became mainstream and a possible choice for all the non-engineering geeks.
With another million drivers giving all their friends rides and showing off the car's quiet intelligence, this anti-EV FUD loses more of its sting as its possible audience has real-world experience to fight it. And of course, with the war chest from those sales, Tesla sits even firmer in the catbird seat with new factory options for 2023. And all this is aside from the fact the Elon mentioned Tesla is chip constrained, NOT cell constrained. Fantastic for both cars and energy.

TL;DR: Was bullish for Model Y. Now bullish on Tesla Energy as well. Thank you @ZachF !!!

* I include Model 3's in this as well, but I think the Y has unique cachet for the US market and an even better profit margin. [grammar edit]

 

[mongo]

Except tesla just had to issue an OTA recall because it is illegal (and that's just an L2 system it gets far more significant for L3+ under current law)

Again, a car maker can not put an L3+ system on the road in any US state legally unless they certify it will obey all current traffic laws

Including speed limits.

The idea any car maker would ignore the law and release a system in violation of such law, when they (not the driver) would be assuming all liability for it, is simply absurd.


This issue isn't "the car could get a ticket"

The issue is it's illegal to even put that system on the road with that capability under current law.

Hummm....
Base condition: cars do not stop for stop signs
Standard feature set: cruise control blows through stop signs
Improved feature set: Adaptive cruise (Ford 2018) will blow through stop signs (and potentially rear end cars going under 12 MPH)
So, requiring Tesla to (re)enable a feature that does stop for stop signs is tacit acknowledgement that the feature exists and that it works. Intentional on Tesla's part?

 

[elasalle]

To be clear, the human is still in control and is the one who is committing the illegal activity. The setting isn't illegal, the actual not stopping is illegal.

The system needs to have a setting where it *always* comes to a complete stop and that must be default.

Nothing is stopping Tesla from having a setting that does rolling stops, but it must NOT be default.

With so much scrutinity on FSD, best it don't break any rules.

As FSD get's more acceptance and they can provide data on future features not being a danger to the driver, rules can be revised iteratively ... cheers!!

 

[Pezpunk]

Except tesla just had to issue an OTA recall because it is illegal (and that's just an L2 system it gets far more significant for L3+ under current law)

Again, a car maker can not put an L3+ system on the road in any US state legally unless they certify it will obey all current traffic laws

Including speed limits.

The idea any car maker would ignore the law and release a system in violation of such law, when they (not the driver) would be assuming all liability for it, is simply absurd.


This issue isn't "the car could get a ticket"

The issue is it's illegal to even put that system on the road with that capability under current law.

Speed limits are created with several considerations in mind -- number one, they need to specify a limit that is still reasonably safe even for the lowest common denominator: i.e. the least stable, worst handling, worst braking car on the road that is still street-legal. Speed limits are also created by people who know full well that the flow of traffic will typically be around 10mph faster than the posted limit, at least on highways (or faster depending on location and conditions). This lets it filter down to local law enforcement to enforce the law, ideally in a way that makes sense for specific situations. The bottom line is that the speed limit is extremely flexible in practice, which can lead to unfair and biased enforcement, but ultimately that flexibility is a benefit that society generally appreciates a great deal. There are very, very few people (probably close to none) who wish their cars were limited to the exact speed limit at all times. This system is trailored to and depends on humans judgment at every level though, both driving and enforcement-wise.

That said, Knightshade is correct that no company is going to be allowed to deploy a system that breaks the law, and right now, exceedingly the speed limit is against the law.

A common-sense solution would be to pass executive orders or regulations specifying that automated systems may exceed the posted speed limit by certain percentages given certain environmental factors are met (weather, traffic, time of day, etc). However, these directives would almost certainly have to be LOCAL. Meaning every municipality would have different laws. Sounds like a mess.

So to sum up -- Knightshade is technically correct, and barring some kind of legislative miracle, most likely correct in the eventual implementation as well.

 

[generalenthu]

I am not worried about making autonomous vehicles following speed limit. Once there are enough of them on the roads (especially single lane ones) doing speed limit, I expect there will be some adjustments done.

 

[Knightshade]

Hummm....
Base condition: cars do not stop for stop signs
Standard feature set: cruise control blows through stop signs
Improved feature set: Adaptive cruise (Ford 2018) will blow through stop signs (and potentially rear end cars going under 12 MPH)
So, requiring Tesla to (re)enable a feature that does stop for stop signs is tacit acknowledgement that the feature exists and that it works. Intentional on Tesla's part?

Really not sure what you're saying here.

The car stopping at all for stop signs is already part of wide release FSD, and has been for a couple of years.

And that's not changing at all.

What is changing is Tesla is removing an option to do rolling stops that was only added a few months ago, and that the NHTSA took issue with because such rolls are illegal.


Again none of this changes the entirely different set of conditions that apply to L3+ cars, where the car, not the human, is ultimately responsible for driving- and in all states that allow such cars they require the car, when responsible for driving, to fully obey all traffic laws. Which would include full stops at signs and obeying speed limits.

To be clear, the human is still in control and is the one who is committing the illegal activity. The setting isn't illegal, the actual not stopping is illegal.

The system needs to have a setting where it *always* comes to a complete stop and that must be default.

Nothing is stopping Tesla from having a setting that does rolling stops, but it must NOT be default.

This is clearly incorrect.

That setting is not the default already. It requires actively changing the setting to "aggressive" in the FSDBeta controls.

And yet Tesla is issuing an actual OTA recall to remove the option, after discussion with the NHTSA, to remove it entirely.




That said, this isn't really relevant to the main point since in all those cases the human is ultimately the one responsible for the DDT.



For L3+ vehicles state law in states that allow such systems require following all traffic laws

Nevada, for example, actually requires the car maker to submit a form certifying such systems will obey all traffic laws, under penalty of perjury and a $2500 fine for each time the vehicle breaks such laws.

No car company would submit such a certification for a system that could break the law.

 

[Singuy]

GJ purposely pulls a huge number out of his @** and Tesla finds some way to beat it...then he looks like a genius saying "Listen...we knew revenue would come in at $XX...the street sandbags their estimates, not us...but....(insert>>>"essentially......yada yada")

2019, 2020 on TMC: the streets are sneaking up their eps and deliveries so Tesla can miss. GJ and his BS numbers skewing the street.

2021, 2022 on TMC: the street doesn't get Tesla Financials and are clowning around with forward eps too low.

Still trying to figure out what you guys want the street to do here.

 

[pitabun]

Except tesla just had to issue an OTA recall because it is illegal (and that's just an L2 system it gets far more significant for L3+ under current law)

Again, a car maker can not put an L3+ system on the road in any US state legally unless they certify it will obey all current traffic laws

Including speed limits.

The idea any car maker would ignore the law and release a system in violation of such law, when they (not the driver) would be assuming all liability for it, is simply absurd.


This issue isn't "the car could get a ticket"

The issue is it's illegal to even put that system on the road with that capability under current law.

It's almost like they need to re-assign the HOV lane to slower L4 vehicles, so they can go the speed limit without interrupting the faster human drivers.

 

[ZachF]

Is this price/kWh correct for LFP? I ask because this post, more than anything recently, makes me bullish on the near future of the energy market overall and by extension, Tesla Energy.
Storage cost has been the Achilles heel of renewables, for both good (and FUD-amplified) reasons for decades. Storage is needed to some extent, and storage has been painfully expensive per kWh stored.
For context, I have read a recent story about a local Montana community that passed ordinances to make wind power effectively illegal in their area - to be able to keep their money-losing coal plant open and its jobs around for the foreseeable future. That coal plant must be even more expensive than the NG combined cycle plants that ZachF quotes, given all we know about coal in general. As much as that story depressed me, this information about cheaper storage makes me believe these rearguard, anti-profit, anti-earth actions cannot stand for long. Yes local jobs are an issue, but yes, repurposing coal plants and installing wind power would create new jobs.
At least I hope they cannot stand. Fossil fuel interests are insinuated into local and state governments exceedingly deeply.
This makes me more bullish for Tesla Energy, and for those who follow me, I was already "bullish AF" since Elon listened to me and is going to flood the US market with high-desirability Model Y's* for the next year. Those Model Y's are just large enough to tempt the SUV-addled US customers into coming over to our side. Anyone else remember when this finally happened with the Prius? Eventually enough people knew someone with one that they became mainstream and a possible choice for all the non-engineering geeks.
With another million drivers giving all their friends rides and showing off the car's quiet intelligence, this anti-EV FUD loses more of its sting as its possible audience has real-world experience to fight it. And of course, with the war chest from those sales, Tesla sits even firmer in the catbird seat with new factory options for 2023. And all this is aside from the fact the Elon mentioned Tesla is chip constrained, NOT cell constrained. Fantastic for both cars and energy.

TL;DR: Was bullish for Model Y. Now bullish on Tesla Energy as well. Thank you @ZachF !!!

* I include Model 3's in this as well, but I think the Y has unique cachet for the US market and an even better profit margin. [grammar edit]

IIRC current mega pack prices are $230/Kwh and those don’t use cheaper LFPs.

even if price doesn’t change longer cycle life (like 3x higher) makes LFP a winner in stationary storage. At $230/kwh with 10000 cycles that’s still just ~2.3c storage cost, which is lower than the fuel cost for NG and coal.

Prices should be able to go much lower IMHO. Especially when they’re making hundreds of GWh per year of them in factories. (That would be hundreds of 2MWh mega packs per day)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Funny to think of even this ridiculous $10.1 2022 EPS estimate from the street. If SP stays flat, that's a PE of 92. At our conservative EPS estimate around $16.5, that's a PE of 56. Same as Walmart......who is showing a staggering 3% y-o-y growth.

At some point, earnings will matter.

Did I just say that on a Tesla fan forum? Times have changed!

It's really a bizarre market at the moment. Some very distorted valuations on companies that are barely growing. Walmart only increased revenue 4% and their earnings/net income were DOWN Yoy in Q3 and it still get's a P/E of 56.

Simply unreal.

 

[MABMAB]

Or it's the same MMD we see on like 40% of trading days. It just feels different because everyone is on edge.

But it is not just Tesla, it is broad market. Everyone at TMC needs to broaden that which they view. Take in the big picture of the market, then narrow the focus to sectors or groups, then the individual stocks. The kind of money it takes to manipulate is too much to move the entire market. Even the Russians brought forth as having early earnings reports made <100M

 

[lascavarian]

Nothing is stopping Tesla from having a setting that does rolling stops, but it must NOT be default.

Would this logic not support VW just adding a setting to bypass environmental controls?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

2019, 2020 on TMC: the streets are sneaking up their eps and deliveries so Tesla can miss. GJ and his BS numbers skewing the street.

2021, 2022 on TMC: the street doesn't get Tesla Financials and are clowning around with forward eps too low.

Still trying to figure out what you guys want the street to do here.

2010 - Present: Listen, when there's competition, Tesla crumbles...we see that in EU and China...their market share has significantly declined.....

At least now, some interviewers on TV call out GJ for his ridiculousness...and he starts stuttering cause he can't believe they called him out on his BS.

 

[woodisgood]

But it is not just Tesla, it is broad market. Everyone at TMC needs to broaden that which they view. Take in the big picture of the market, then narrow the focus to sectors or groups, then the individual stocks. The kind of money it takes to manipulate is too much to move the entire market. Even the Russians brought forth as having early earnings reports made <100M

There are some assumptions here…namely, that all trades are “real” money trades. If a large bulk of trades are algorithm-driven, then it can require far less of an intentional “real money” move to manipulate the other money into doing what you want…

There are, unfortunately, some really, really super intelligent people working at hedge funds. They have this stuff down to a science well beyond what you and I can imagine. Shame they do not put their gifts into the betterment of humanity, but again, this is why Elon is such a rare bird.