Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tommy O]

Instead of trying to predict the next downturn, might I suggest members of this forum just do some simple preparation in case the market goes under, regardless of cause?

Take it as far as you want, from 6-12 month cash savings, all the way to doomsday prepping.

This post was prompted by the Ukraine invasion talk, which is growing tedious, and I know just barely enough to know that I know a whole lot more than most of you (minus our Ukrainians here). And I know almost nothing.

The chart of market reactions to previous conflicts just triggered me. Utter nonsense.

I’m sorry.

 

[dl003]

Instead of trying to predict the next downturn, might I suggest members of this forum just do some simple preparation in case the market goes under, regardless of cause?

Take it as far as you want, from 6-12 month cash savings, all the way to doomsday prepping.

This post was prompted by the Ukraine invasion talk, which is growing tedious, and I know just barely enough to know that I know a whole lot more than most of you (minus our Ukrainians here). And I know almost nothing.

The chart of market reactions to previous conflicts just triggered me. Utter nonsense.

I’m sorry.

I feel a bit of anxiety reading this post. Is that an intended consequence?

 

[Tommy O]

I feel a bit of anxiety reading this post. Is that an intended consequence?

Yes. Now built that nuclear bomb proof shelter, soldier!

 

[MC3OZ]

Instead of trying to predict the next downturn, might I suggest members of this forum just do some simple preparation in case the market goes under, regardless of cause?

Take it as far as you want, from 6-12 month cash savings, all the way to doomsday prepping.

This post was prompted by the Ukraine invasion talk, which is growing tedious, and I know just barely enough to know that I know a whole lot more than most of you (minus our Ukrainians here). And I know almost nothing.

The chart of market reactions to previous conflicts just triggered me. Utter nonsense.

I’m sorry.

Well that took me 5 seconds.

What's next?

My funds are retirement money. which I will not need to at least 5 years.

Low debt, and only due by recent house renovation....

I know everyone's circumstance is different, but low debt levels make it very easy to shrug off market movements.
There has never been a stock market crash where the market didn't recover to new highs, 5 years should be enough time for that..

For the record, I think Putin would be very foolish to invade Ukraine, for military and economic reasons.

When it comes to inflation, my long term bias is deflation.

So 5 years makes a lot of difference. IMO probably enough difference - so job done.

I do happen to live in an area that isn't a high value nuclear target, someone bombing us has probably missed their intended target, by a long way.

 

[Tommy O]

Well that took me 5 seconds.

What's next?

My post was partially in jest and weekend fun, though the constant prognostications are annoying. I mostly scroll through, but I don’t have a neuralink to turn off my emotions…yet!

 

[Boomer19]

no offense anyone here, or twitter, or gary black, or anyone else. but we’ve now moved from dividends to buybacks? what is this? proctor and gamble? do your selfish shareholder selves a favor and STOP!!! take a breath. ask yourselves what got us here
(no offense Accountant…and that was a degree of mine), accounting or engineering?
stop with the desperate attempts to “save ” the share price. it can take care of itself. no more helicopter moms please. we’re doing fine.

 

[kbM3]

TeslaDaily announcement in 12 minutes.

 

[Boomer19]

TeslaDaily announcement in 12 minutes.

did he sell everything as well like the lime green-haired kid?

 

[snellenr]

I had an interesting exchange today with the individual that loaded groceries into my car at Walmart pickup. He began with the usual question that we've all probably received dozens of times "how do you like your car", and before I could even finish my response, he adamantly states "I could never buy an electric car, it's against my political affiliation." I proceed to explain that I love the vehicle and never considered that buying it had anything to do with politics.

We continued the exchange as I answered the regular (FUD) talking points, knowing full well that nothing I could say to this man would have any impact on his politically derived opinion. We live in an interesting and some concerning world where political factions are literally permeating through non-political areas of people's lives, and it seems like everyone feels the need to loudly and proudly pick a side and blame the opposite side for everything that they don't like in this world.

Seems like the better argument here "to support the mission" would have been to just explain to him that you're a conservative Republican who works in the oil industry, voted for Trump twice, and bought your Tesla because it's a shiat-hot supercar that also hauls groceries and lumber. What do you care what some Walmart grocery-helping drone thinks of you, anyway?

Take one for the team...

 

[Nolimits]

Exactly. In the 1990's my mortgage was 15% and took up most of my salary. It was tough. 2% is for babies

So I shouldn’t be too concerned? I am having a tough decision to sell 15% of my tsla holdings for closing on a new home. Mortgage rates are high and i was banking on Q1 earnings to sell like a noob. More lessons on timing the market… don’t know when (if) I’ll ever learn.

 

[FrankSG]

much more lucrative than youtube

I can't imagine he's doing it for the money. He's probably making ~$500k off of Patreon each year and presumably has a pretty good chunk of TSLA holdings as well.

Although the main selling point of it sounds like it is the community, and it feels a bit wrong to me to charge people for the value they essentially create themselves.

Maybe there's more to it that we don't currently know, but it kinda sounds like he's Rivian trying to compete with Tesla (TMC)

 

[Tommy O]

I can't imagine he's doing it for the money. He's probably making ~$500k off of Patreon each year and presumably has a pretty good chunk of TSLA holdings as well.

Sorry, for those of us that aren’t able to watch/listen, is this a Dave Maurer thing? Shareloft?

 

[StealthP3D]

All of this makes sense to me - not that I could have described it at 1/5th the level you did. I read this and then I read @StarFoxisDown! ’s posts about P/E compression and wonder if he is correct? Is it possible that no matter the earnings that Tesla has, the FCF they generate, until there is undeniable market evidence that “there is no catching Tesla,” that the SP will stay lower than what would otherwise be logical. I don’t have financial acumen to assess it, but it feels to me that perhaps the market needs to see legacy companies failing and Tesla succeeding, and maybe even a legacy company going out of business or companies merging for the market to finally react in a way that properly values Tesla.

These are two mostly different things. The market will value Tesla higher based upon the way that earnings growth compresses the P/E and other metrics used to value companies. But the principle I was addressing, the likelihood of Tesla's future dominance in the automotive market based upon the greater value Tesla can offer car buyers, has a multiplier effect on how much weight investors give to whatever earnings Tesla may report in the future because it increases their confidence that a flood of new competition won't end that earnings growth prematurely.

So, the more confidence investors have that Tesla will continue growing at similar rates, the higher they should value whatever earnings growth that's presented. I think TSLA is currently under-valued based on already announced earnings because investors don't have a good idea of how secure Tesla's dominance actually is. But, even without that misunderstanding being rectified, higher earnings will still compress metrics like P/E and cause valuations to rise, just not as much as when people become aware of how secure Tesla's dominance really is.

 

[Artful Dodger]

New, human-like behavior seen for the first time in FSD Beta v10.0 (planning, decision making, executing move to extract itself from blocked trafffic )

Whole Mars Catalog on Twitter: "FSD Beta 10.10 reverses slightly to give itself more room after getting stuck behind a stopped car. In previous versions, it would often just get stuck if this happened and require takeover. Super cool! $TSLA @elonmusk https://t.co/w3bhN3fXAQ" / Twitter​

Video included in link. Nicely done, Team FSD!

Cheers!

 

[UCF3]

Maybe there's more to it that we don't currently know, but it kinda sounds like he's Rivian trying to compete with Tesla (TMC)

Maybe he already got FactChecking and Karen to sign up.

 

[2daMoon]

I find saying "Honestly,I just hated going to gas stations....what's gas up to now, almost $3 a gallon?" works really well when gas is actually $5/gal here because they HAVE to correct me! It's imperceivable to them that not everyone knows what a gallon of gas costs...

I believe this word means what you wanted that word to mean...

/jk

 

[Tommy O]

New, human-like behavior seen for the first time in FSD Beta v10.0 (planning, decision making, executing move to extract itself from blocked trafffic )

You buried the lede in the quoted text. The machine backed itself up. That implies it’s using the rear facing camera. Pretty interesting.

What’s more interesting is Karpathy has been tweeting about neural radiance fields and simulation being the dark horse…for FSD. The implications of THAT are enormous, if he’s correct.

 

[lafrisbee]

I can't imagine he's doing it for the money. He's probably making ~$500k off of Patreon each year and presumably has a pretty good chunk of TSLA holdings as well.

Although the main selling point of it sounds like it is the community, and it feels a bit wrong to me to charge people for the value they essentially create themselves.

Maybe there's more to it that we don't currently know, but it kinda sounds like he's Rivian trying to compete with Tesla (TMC)

I'll put my ant sense here:
The issue I see is that too many people talking about too many topics....you might as well be on reddit. I belonged to ONE really good group on the internet (not here. here is just what there is. and is ok). The group was by invitation only. It was our world. 50-100 people is about all you can listen too.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I’ve said it before, this is NOT your FATHERS inflation

I agree, something weird is going on. I'm on my first trip home to Australia since before the rona shut everything down and the thing that surprises me most is that all the people I am catching up with are rich. All my friends that own any sort of asset are just killing it. House prices went up 22% in a year on average but certain areas have doubled in 18 months. some friends that started small businesses (think cafe/butcher/baker) a few years ago are turning over millions a year and making fantastic profits. Even those on a relatively low salary have made decent stacks in stocks/crypto/property.

There's just too much money chasing too few goods. I don't see any other way out of this situation besides high inflation and/or interest rates to reduce, or a massive scale up of production of goods and services to satisfy all this new wealth.

 

[Xepa777]

I can't imagine he's doing it for the money. He's probably making ~$500k off of Patreon each year and presumably has a pretty good chunk of TSLA holdings as well.

Although the main selling point of it sounds like it is the community, and it feels a bit wrong to me to charge people for the value they essentially create themselves.

Maybe there's more to it that we don't currently know, but it kinda sounds like he's Rivian trying to compete with Tesla (TMC)

Yah, building a sustainable paid community is a very different skill set than being a good YouTuber. There’s countless creators that tried to do this. There’s nothing novel about his platform, and there’s a reason YouTube and twitter are such dominant platforms: it’s where people already reside.

And let’s say it does become popular and grow, well now quality gets diluted and it becomes another investor social media platform.

I wish him the best, but it’s a niche platform that won’t provide early as much insight as TMC.