Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

I was in the Poconos last weekend and saw a few Teslas. I stopped at the nearby outlet mall supercharger station and all 8 were occupied (I got a spot that just opened as I arrived). I even saw a Model 3 parked at the administrative offices at the Pocono Racetrack. Here in Northern Virginia they're getting to be common. On my 20 mile commute to work I am now counting 20 or more passing me every time I drive in.

PASSING you? Dude, that’s what “Track Mode” is for!

 

[bkp_duke]

PASSING you? Dude, that’s what “Track Mode” is for!

And this is legit why I can never sign up for Tesla insurance and let them use my driving stats for rates.

I ardently adhere to "THOUGH SHALL NOT PASS ME!!!"

 

[wipster]

To some extent, the German government and the EU are already bailing out the VW Group every day and every year. There are a lot of subsidies, e.g. Kurarbeitergeld and many others flowing, and the state of Lower Saxony, which owns a Tesla state, also supports them. Bonds are bought from the EU to keep the refinancing of VW, which now has a debt of 200 billion, going. Without all these measures, VW would already be bankrupt. If the situation worsens, they will step up efforts, as VW poses a systemic risk to Germany.

VW will be a different company in 2030, but the German government and the EU will keep the money flowing.

How do you say "Too big to fail" in German?

 

[EVMeister]

How do you say "Too big to fail" in German?

Volkswagen.

 

[AudubonB]

How do you say "Too big to fail" in German?

Tufahrvergungingdown.

Edit: Curse you, EVM!

 

[wipster]

Tufahrvergungingdown.

Well farfegnugen to you too... LOL

 

[StealthP3D]

What hit me, was the contrast between the HEPA filtered air in my Model X, and the diesel fumes outside of my kid's school. The frog in boiling water effect.

And I've been meeting people who, since the rising energy prices, have also been questioning their dependency on fossil fuels and energy.

For the last 50 years, since I was 8 years old, I've been appalled at the lack of concern our society/civilization has for breathing toxic exhaust fumes. I used to stare at tailpipes when I was a child (actually I still do) and watch the toxic gases come out and dissipate.

This began about the time I learned that some people commit suicide simply by sitting in their car in the garage with the engine running. I reasoned if one car was so deadly it could be relied upon to kill even a healthy person in a leaky garage, then we must be getting close to that in big cities with hundreds of thousands of cars on a calm day and tall buildings containing the gases in the streets. Carbon monoxide is deadly so quickly because it prevents oxygen from absorbing into the blood but the other toxic by-products cause cancer and other genetic harm. How much damage are city folk doing to the development of their kids by breathing so much of this every day? How could this be allowed?

Years ago I was told the answer was because we didn't have a better solution to transportation, that electric cars are impractical and so we just have to make do. But now, society, in general, hardly even questions the impact of breathing exhaust gases, we just accept it because it's been that way so long. This is especially strange since there is a viable solution now: solar energy and electric cars, trucks and buses!

Given the gravity of the health impacts of breathing exhaust gases, society should be moving as quickly as humanly possible to electrification to save lives and reduce sickness including levying a hospital/health care tax on production of new ICE engines. I prefer this over raising the gas tax because it is less regressive and it will more effectively reduce production of brand-new ICE vehicles which will reduce the amount of time that legacy vehicles continue to pollute as we make the transition to electrics. Lightspeed is called for, but people don't understand what's on the line (and that's ignoring the even bigger problem of AGW). Big money is doing whatever they can think of to slow the transition down (and that includes co-opting the mouthpieces of the media.

Does anyone know of a company that is well positioned to help this transition occur as quickly as possible? Because thousands of people are still dying from tailpipe emissions every year and many more have stunted development. And we wonder why humans are becoming so apathetic!

 

[Usain]

Why, so customer can wait even longer for their car.

I find it silly to advertise to try to offset Elon's antics. If you don't like Elon to the point of refusing to buy the product no amount of advertising will likely counter this.

Brand value and trust is something that is built over many, many years. It's unbelievably valuable over the long term.

My suggestion that Tesla run a few "awareness" ads like Elon discussed is about holding on to that long term brand value and goodwill. It's not something Tesla should just let go into the crapper no matter the current wait time for cars.

Let everyone know about Tesla's vision for the future. It helps with more than just car sales. When the populous buys into Tesla's promise of a better world it will also helps grease the skids of government policies everywhere.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's condescending posts like this that make this forum toxic at times. What about the oft-repeated positive sentiments or the irrational exuberance ? Those should remain but the negative ones shouldn't? What I care about is hearing a reasoned thought, regardless of whether it's positive or negative or whether I agree with it. In fact, I actually want to hear the ones not consistent with my current views because I might learn something new. Pointing out the obvious, there's a real tension on this forum between two camps: those who want to hear only positive comments and those who want back and forth discussion. As is usually the case, though, the camp that wins out is the one that is most vociferous driving away the others and you're left with an echo chamber.

Feel free to not change the context of this ‘back and forth’ discussion. I’ve no more supported irrational exuberance than irrational what’s going on now and you’d know that if you’d been paying attention or cared to know. It’s not reasoned thought, that’s the whole point. Have you even been reading the last week worth of pages?

And tell me, why is it that when someone wants people to stop fighting and being angry at each other, at one man doing more for them than anyone, and at the world, and offers a way for them to not be upset that the ‘this place is an echo chamber’ excuse is tossed around and I’m being condescending?

Not once have I ever argued against reasoned thought whether positive or negative. The issue is that negative thought is rarely reasoned. Instead, it’s full of drama, high emotion, political stance, labels, assumptions of guilt, and illogical broad sweeping made up nonsense. And not just on this forum. It’s pervasive everywhere in the world.

If investors here really wanted to know how the recent harassment settlement might affect Elon’s image and thus maybe a segment of Tesla’s market then they would have pointedly asked the female investors here for their thoughts and insight on the news.

If investors here really wanted to know how Elon proclaiming he’d vote Republican the next time would affect his image and thus maybe a segment of Tesla’s market then they would have pointedly asked Democratic investors here and Republican investors here for their insight on the news.

Instead, we got a bunch of ranting and raving, and Elon’s ruining the brand, and he needs to shut up and have a babysitter, and how could he…

In amongst all of that there were some insightful posts about how the politically affiliations actually weren’t an issue for reasonable folk and why, how the harassment settle amount didn’t make sense from a harassment point of view - but those rational posts and others were drowned out by all the high emotion NEGATIVITY.

I’ve had my say now on the matter until this happens again in a week or month. Take it or leave it, we all know I don’t care if you think I’m condescending or not.

 

[StealthP3D]

In regards to the 9K Ton IDRA press reported by Alex V. Assuming Tesla uses these for all Cyber Trucks, I wonder how they have test vehicles without them installed? I would assume they mocked up the frame to get other things moving, but it would seem much harder without the base casting. I dont think many people had the opportunity to get pictures of the subframe at gigafest to check. If IDRA has them assembled in Italy I bet we start getting things shipped in Q3 to Austin. Based off the nearly daily pictures of Austin I don't remember them mentioning a larger press, only the smaller ones for Model Y.

Tesla makes excellent use of computers to do structural load modelling. That means they can design a part and fabricate it from sheet metal to approximate the stiffness and other properties of an aluminum casting. In fact, they would likely do this anyway to save money on casting iterations. A steel part, used as a proxy for an aluminum one, could provide a lot of useful data by using load and movement sensors, and validating the flex and the way other parts of the exoskeleton transfer loads to the frame subassemblies that are substituting for the front and rear castings before the 9,000 Ton mega-casting press is fully assembled and operational.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's condescending posts like this that make this forum toxic at times. What about the oft-repeated positive sentiments or the irrational exuberance ? Those should remain but the negative ones shouldn't? What I care about is hearing a reasoned thought, regardless of whether it's positive or negative or whether I agree with it. In fact, I actually want to hear the ones not consistent with my current views because I might learn something new. Pointing out the obvious, there's a real tension on this forum between two camps: those who want to hear only positive comments and those who want back and forth discussion. As is usually the case, though, the camp that wins out is the one that is most vociferous driving away the others and you're left with an echo chamber.

I love considering contrasting views when they are well-reasoned and match with how the world actually works. If it's just FUD built on a foundation of sand, it's useless and a waste of time to debate it.

 

[Phrugal Phan]

PASSING you? Dude, that’s what “Track Mode” is for!

LOL. Sorry, I should have said pass me going the opposite direction. But I am pretty chill on my driving so I have been passed a few times already, but I only got my Model Y two weeks ago.

Up in Poconos I was driving a cousin around for the fun of it. I would drive normal around other cars, then when it looked safe I would floor it and leave the other cars behind like they were stuck in the mud, especially going uphill. He was amazed when I told him this was Tesla's slow car.

I may have already made a convert at work. I have taken a coworker out at lunch twice in my car. He has an expensive Camaro and is now considering trading it in for a Tesla. The instant acceleration that pushed him back in his seat caught his attention.

 

[traxila]

For the last 50 years, since I was 8 years old, I've been appalled at the lack of concern our society/civilization has for breathing toxic exhaust fumes. I used to stare at tailpipes when I was a child (actually I still do) and watch the toxic gases come out and dissipate.

This began about the time I learned that some people commit suicide simply by sitting in their car in the garage with the engine running. I reasoned if one car was so deadly it could be relied upon to kill even a healthy person in a leaky garage, then we must be getting close to that in big cities with hundreds of thousands of cars on a calm day and tall buildings containing the gases in the streets. Carbon monoxide is deadly so quickly because it prevents oxygen from absorbing into the blood but the other toxic by-products cause cancer and other genetic harm. How much damage are city folk doing to the development of their kids by breathing so much of this every day? How could this be allowed?

Years ago I was told the answer was because we didn't have a better solution to transportation, that electric cars are impractical and so we just have to make do. But now, society, in general, hardly even questions the impact of breathing exhaust gases, we just accept it because it's been that way so long. This is especially strange since there is a viable solution now: solar energy and electric cars, trucks and buses!

Given the gravity of the health impacts of breathing exhaust gases, society should be moving as quickly as humanly possible to electrification to save lives and reduce sickness including levying a hospital/health care tax on production of new ICE engines. I prefer this over raising the gas tax because it is less regressive and it will more effectively reduce production of brand-new ICE vehicles which will reduce the amount of time that legacy vehicles continue to pollute as we make the transition to electrics. Lightspeed is called for, but people don't understand what's on the line (and that's ignoring the even bigger problem of AGW). Big money is doing whatever they can think of to slow the transition down (and that includes co-opting the mouthpieces of the media.

Does anyone know of a company that is well positioned to help this transition occur as quickly as possible? Because thousands of people are still dying from tailpipe emissions every year and many more have stunted development. And we wonder why humans are becoming so apathetic!

The lead as well. I am in the same boat as you, slightly younger. The entire industrialized world was in an ocean of lead for a few decades. It was everywhere.

Recent solid research shows that anyone born in the 60s or 70s in a major metropolitan area took a guaranteed hit of '7' IQ points.

Least that's the way they chose to quantify.

Makes sense: Made us so stupid that we are OK to sit there and inhale toxins all day long.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla as a company is more than just Elon. It's actually possible to be invested in the company while at the same time being unhappy with occasional behavior of the CEO. I've sold shares to reduce my exposure to the company at various times for various reasons, some directly related to Elon and some not. To me that's a rational investment strategy, it doesn't have to be all or nothing as you seem to imply. It's not a religion for me. You don't seem to care what happens with your investment, great, but most people invest in a company to make money.

Thanks for that.

Let me make one correction about me; I do care about my investment, more than anyone here can even know. That investment just happens to not be simply about the money.

Perhaps one day Elon will irk me by tweeting something awful about cats. He shouldn’t do that.

 

[bkp_duke]

Perhaps one day Elon will irk me by tweeting something awful about cats. He shouldn’t do that.

Feline fanatic!

 

[Paul_SF]

The lead as well. I am in the same boat as you, slightly younger. The entire industrialized world was in an ocean of lead for a few decades. It was everywhere.

Recent solid research shows that anyone born in the 60s or 70s in a major metropolitan area took a guaranteed hit of '7' IQ points.

Least that's the way they chose to quantify.

Makes sense: Made us so stupid that we are OK to sit there and inhale toxins all day long.

Still the weekend and maybe some of you haven’t seen this already:

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla as a company is more than just Elon. It's actually possible to be invested in the company while at the same time being unhappy with occasional behavior of the CEO. I've sold shares to reduce my exposure to the company at various times for various reasons, some directly related to Elon and some not. To me that's a rational investment strategy, it doesn't have to be all or nothing as you seem to imply. It's not a religion for me. You don't seem to care what happens with your investment, great, but most people invest in a company to make money.

I care what happens to my investment and, from what I've seen over the last decade, the company could not be more valuable in general had Elon more closely followed restrictive social and business norms when Tweeting.

In fact, I think Elon's controversial public statements and actions have made the company and the stock more valuable over the years, not less. Not many companies have grown from under $2 billion market cap (Tesla's IPO valuation was $1.7 billion) to its current value of $688 billion in just 12 short years. Do you know of any companies that have done this? Pretty damn rare if ever.

My take-away from this is Elon's Tweets have not damaged shareholder value as you imagine, they have increased it. I can't prove his tweets have helped but I have a hard time imagining TSLA being where it is today without them!

 

[Mengy]

I hope Dave Lee is okay. He hasn’t posted anything in a few days and removed the last podcast.

I believe Dave is on vacation with his family, so he's likely taking a YouTube break for a bit.

 

[madodel]

I was in the Poconos last weekend and saw a few Teslas. I stopped at the nearby outlet mall supercharger station and all 8 were occupied (I got a spot that just opened as I arrived). I even saw a Model 3 parked at the administrative offices at the Pocono Racetrack. Here in Northern Virginia they're getting to be common. On my 20 mile commute to work I am now counting 20 or more passing me every time I drive in.

When I reserved my Sig X 8 years ago there were no Superchargers or service centers in Pennsylvania. Now there are Superchargers throughout including the one you charged at which is about 5 miles from my house and another one only about 2 miles from my house in Bartonsville. Life is good with a Tesla, though a service center in NEPA would be greatly appreciated.

 

[jbcarioca]

I’m happy - really, truly, I am - to have found the most recent dozen or so pages to be far less disheartening to read than most of what showed up here all week. Keep up the good work, every*one!

Re the photo of the IDRA 9000: I didn’t learn whether that was in Austin, Grunheide, Shanghai, Fremont or Alaska. Any evidence for where it is being assembled?

*99.44% +/- 0.56%, says the precision fanatic.

Sure, you can go to the official unveil if you act quickly: