Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

The Trek "no scarcity of anything" thing never fully made sense anyway.... Picard owns a family vineyard on excellent growing land in France. Siskos dad a restaurant in the French Quarter of New Orleans. Only so much of such things exist, no matter how "free" your electricity is.

But wasn't that inside the Trek equivalent of the Metaverse (Holodeck)? That's the land of abundance, except for the food part. And to think we all get to watch this unfold. Hope we can at least figure out warp drive before then.

 

[Singuy]

As of right now, I'm hard-pressed to decide which year was a worse one for TSLA -- 2022 or 2019. If this drags on until August or longer, it doesn't become that hard to decide anymore.

2019 definitely. That was stressful when Elon said bankruptcy possible on HBO and internal emails, closing stores, huge reduction in S/X production, demand cliff from tax credit, close to running out of cash, trash operating margins, and fighting with the SEC.

What's going on today besides Elon F-ing around with BTC impairments and twitter deals? Having to deal with all these forward PE being too low posts? Elon distributing horses to female flight attendants he doesn't even employ?

 

[wipster]

But wasn't that inside the Trek equivalent of the Metaverse (Holodeck)? That's the land of abundance, except for the food part. And to think we all get to watch this unfold. Hope we can at least figure out warp drive before then.

No, that was in the real world, but you have me wondering, how filling is holofood? And how does it taste? And then there's holosex... better stop there.

 

[Cherry Wine]

2019 definitely. That was stressful when Elon said bankruptcy possible on HBO and internal emails, closing stores, huge reduction in S/X production, demand cliff from tax credit, close to running out of cash, trash operating margins, and fighting with the SEC.

What's going on today besides Elon F-ing around with BTC impairments and twitter deals? Distributing horses to female flight attendants he doesn't even employ?

2019 sucked for sure. And you're right -- TSLA-specific, it's not even close -- 2022 is way better.

But the 2022 macro is way worse, and like someone else wrote earlier today (paraphrasing) -- in market crashes, everything gets sold in the panic to find liquidity, even rock star stocks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

2019 sucked for sure. And you're right -- TSLA-specific, it's not even close -- 2022 is way better.

But the 2022 macro is way worse, and like someone else wrote earlier today (paraphrasing) -- in market crashes, everything gets sold in the panic to find liquidity, even rock star stocks.

Even Beyond Meat? lol...
I'm still Hodling TSLA you bast**ds, my only choice and it aint going to zero.
There's no good advice, only opinions, but ya better be in the right "chair" when the music stops.

 

[Singuy]

2019 sucked for sure. And you're right -- TSLA-specific, it's not even close -- 2022 is way better.

But the 2022 macro is way worse, and like someone else wrote earlier today (paraphrasing) -- in market crashes, everything gets sold in the panic to find liquidity, even rock star stocks.

Wasn't there a market crash in 2018 due to the China trade wars?

Anyways, all of this will bounce back when institutional investors decide to hose the short sellers. It's all a game anyways.

 

[2daMoon]

As of right now, I'm hard-pressed to decide which year was a worse one for TSLA -- 2022 or 2019. If this drags on until August or longer, it doesn't become that hard to decide anymore.

My goodness, I do hope it doesn't end like 2019 did...

Oh, wait,

That might be okay

 

[thesmokingman]

Even Beyond Meat? lol...
I'm still Hodling TSLA you bast**ds, my only choice and it aint going to zero.
There's no good advice, only opinions, but ya better be in the right "chair" when the music stops.

Here's my philosophy, on *sugar* days like today, sleep in more.

 

[JRP3]

So 10,000 square miles?

But how much would we need if all available and obvious rooftops, canals, parking lots etc. etc. were paneled as well?

I did some casual calculations once and if I remember correctly about 1/3rd of the space needed could come from covering existing parking lots.

 

[Accident]

Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week

Officials had signaled plans to raise interest rates in half-point increments before recent deterioration in data.

www.wsj.com

The market is starting to price a 75 bps hike by the Fed this week. The 10Y yield jumped to 3.39% for a moment when the WSJ came out.
I wouldn't assume that a 50 bps is bullish anymore after the reaction to the CPI numbers. The market wants to see inflation coming down. The estimates for June CPI jumped from 0.6% to 0.93% MoM last week.

 

[Cherry Wine]

My goodness, I do hope it doesn't end like 2019 did...

Oh, wait,

That might be okay

Haha, true! I guess I was thinking first half.

 

[WADan]

It's going to be a tough week price-wise. I am satisfied buying in at 650. I am lousy at calling the top or bottom.

I am waiting impatiently, but I don’t think I am ready to pull the trigger yet as I expect more pain to come. I usually don’t think about backdoor ROTH conversion this early in a year, but this time my ROTH gun is loaded and ready to go!

 

[woodisgood]

I did some casual calculations once and if I remember correctly about 1/3rd of the space needed could come from covering existing parking lots.

How about gas stations? Since they can't be used for much else without major remediation costs, why not throw some panels on the roofs?

 

[Captkerosene]

The only logical thing you can do at this point is disown him.

True. And instead of looking at the truth, the talking political heads blame the President for high gas prices when it's big oil consciously choosing to boost prices by limiting production. But there will be one last big hurrah of super cheap oil prices specifically designed to encourage those who had been reluctant to adopt EV's to stick with ICE one more time.

Currently, big oil knows every EV made will be quickly sold, even if gas were cheap. So, they will wait until EV production is so high that it starts to approach actual demand. Then the price of oil will magically crash to create hardship for all the growing EV makers and create one last wave of sales of new gas guzzlers to provide support for the dwindling demand of oil for another decade. This will not threaten the biggest and strongest EV only manufacturer except to lower profit margins on EV sales as they reduce selling prices to continue to move their ever-increasing production. This could be the end of many legacy auto companies as they find they cannot move their gas cars in large numbers even in an era of cheap oil without lowering prices unacceptably. EV's and ICE car will be going head-to-head on price to see who can win a majority of the market.

Things are going to get weird by 2026-2028, but good. I think EV's will be unbelievably inexpensive, and Tesla will make more of them than any other manufacturer, even when combining legacy's ICE and EV sales.

No more leases, no more pipelines, stop drilling!!!!! You're destroying the planet!!!!!

The big oil companies are limiting production so they can gouge us!!!!

 

[wipster]

How about gas stations? Since they can't be used for much else without major remediation costs, why not throw some panels on the roofs?

And put roofs and solar panels over Superchargers as well, set a good example.

Speaking of which, haven't checked the Nevada Gigafactory lately. The original plan was to cover the entire roof in solar panels. Last time I checked they were a long way from accomplishing that. Imagine covering the parking lots there well. Whole lotta solar power to be had there.

 

[Ogre]

How about gas stations? Since they can't be used for much else without major remediation costs, why not throw some panels on the roofs?

As the cost of solar comes down more and more, solar covering will be the assumption. Any building which has a 20x20 roof and consumes power, will be covered. Many places which don't consume power will be covered. In India they cover their canals, clever solutions like this will spread. Parking areas are definitely going to be covered. In warm sunny places it saves power to share cars and generates power at the same time.

This is why Tesla's solar roof is so important. Having a covering that doesn't require special frames and integrates well with the home or building is going to be exceedingly important. Currently solar on the roof is seen as virtue signaling and people tolerate a boxy/ industrial roof. As it becomes more and more common, the desire for more aesthetic roofing will return and we'll see (or rather we won't see) more roofs covered in Tesla roofing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Amazon $AMZN was down by a larger percentage than Tesla as of 11:00 Eastern:

View attachment 816101

This is a Market-wide myoclonus, even Exxon $XOM is down -5.87% today.

'This too shall pass'. Relax, and let it happen (you'll live longer!)

Cheers to the Longs!

I’m stealing this

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is what Peak Scarcity looks like. Massive massive massive corporate profits as we squeeze the last juice from the fossil fueled early Industrial Era and move into Sustainable Abundance.

People are underestimating the unavoidably stimulative environment we're moving into(or are already in). We're about to build out 60 years of zero marginal cost energy infrastructure in 12 years. Hot stuff.

Would've been nice to go thru this starting in 1977, but human nature simply wouldn't allow it. We needed to hold onto scarcity a bit longer. I think we can all agree we're nearly completely past that fear. We all know this is doable now, so we're jumping into it.

Should be another nice long run of corporate profits before we move into Star Trek mode and such things are deemphasized.

 

[wipster]

And put roofs and solar panels over Superchargers as well, set a good example.

Speaking of which, haven't checked the Nevada Gigafactory lately. The original plan was to cover the entire roof in solar panels. Last time I checked they were a long way from accomplishing that. Imagine covering the parking lots there well. Whole lotta solar power to be had there.

I take it back, they 've made a lot of progress on the roof down there, at least based upon this photo from 10 months ago:

Now if they can cover the parking lot(s) as well, that would more than double the output. Good on Tesla and Panasonic!

 

[wipster]

The photo comes from this article, which includes a great drone flyby. When completed, it will be the largest rooftop solar installation in the US:

Tesla Gigafactory Nevada's solar panel installation is expanding further

Tesla’s Gigafactories in Texas, Berlin, and Shanghai may command the spotlight for the most part these days, but the company’s first Gigafactory in Nevada is still evolving in its own way. As could be seen in a drone flyover of the site, a new batch of solar panels was recently installed in the...

www.teslarati.com

And look at the other factories/warehouses in the distance, just begging for solar panels!