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The only way energy can actually become close to free is if the entire ecosystem costs almost nothing to operate, right from resource extraction to the actual energy production and delivery infrastructure

Otherwise if energy is so cheap that companies aren't making money, free market dynamics will reduce investment and reduce output until energy prices rise enough for money to be made
 
Okay, a few have alluded to this, and I'd like to present it another way that might be easier to grok.

Energy is the scarcity. Has been forever. Consider how many times the cost of energy is applied to the eventual purchase of any item today.

Take something as simple as bread. Energy is purchased in order to:

Package the seeds to grow the wheat
Transport the seeds
Plant the seeds
Tend the crop
Harvest the crop
Transport the crop
Process the wheat
Transport the wheat
Prepare the flour
Prepare the loaf
Bake the loaf
All the steps in manufacturing the bag the loaf will go into, and the bag closure as well
Package the loaf
Transport the bread to a distribution center
Heat, cool, etc. the distribution center
Transport the bread to a grocer
Heat, cool, etc. the store
Ring it up on the register
Transport it home
Put it in the toaster

And further evaluation could easily reveal many multiples of steps that require energy in order to get the job done.
Every instance of energy purchased will be made a part of the cost of that loaf of bread.

What if energy suddenly became so close to free as to be inconsequential to the cost of the chain of bread production?

Energy is the bottleneck. Whomever controls energy, controls everything.

This carefully orchestrated scarcity is now becoming recognized as being artificial and is on the brink of being eliminated for all of humankind over a very short span of years with widespread application of Solar, Wind, and Batteries being added to the equation for producing and controlling the energy supply.

The people of the world are now presented with the ability to own and operate their own energy production, as are each of the plethora of energy users in the form of businesses, governments, etc. using a method that requires almost zero maintenance and zero fuel.

When compared to the cost of using fossil fuels to produce distributed energy now the consequences are so profound that it is staggeringly difficult to imagine just how drastically the economy will be affected.

To say this may upset the apple cart is an understatement of epic proportions.

I hope this helps better illustrate how the managed scarcity of energy is going out of business. Abundant, renewable energy removes myriad burdens upon society and makes available possibilities to enhance the human condition in ways that were impossible when people like J.P. Morgan reveled in being able to place a meter on the thing that, up till now, has throttled human destiny.

HODL, the ride might get bumpy.
We made the mistake at the advent of nuclear that energy needed to be "free" in order for human civilization to escape scarcity. Even if nuclear had ended up "too cheap to meter", it was still centralized and hoardable.

Elon doesn't even need to get overall costs down from here, it's the decentralizing function that will create freedom since hoarding(the expression of greed) will have been rendered impossible. Energy costs will be about 50% lower under wind/solar+storage, but even running at today's optimal fossil fuel cost basis would be fine. It's the stability of decentralized sustainable abundance that's super valuable to real human life.

Another good way to think of it is we're moving from a penetration-based fossil dynamic, to something much more passive/labile and resilient. Should be a good bit better.
 
The only way energy can actually become close to free is if the entire ecosystem costs almost nothing to operate, right from resource extraction to the actual energy production and delivery infrastructure

Otherwise if energy is so cheap that companies aren't making money, free market dynamics will reduce investment and reduce output until energy prices rise enough for money to be made
The only way Google searches can be free is if the entire ecosystem costs almost nothing to operate... /S
 
The only way energy can actually become close to free is if the entire ecosystem costs almost nothing to operate, right from resource extraction to the actual energy production and delivery infrastructure

Otherwise if energy is so cheap that companies aren't making money, free market dynamics will reduce investment and reduce output until energy prices rise enough for money to be made

How much do you think it costs to extract and deliver sunlight to a point of use solar/battery system?

Next, explain how free market dynamics will affect the cost of sunlight.
(and no smart-alecky "it will be managed in the cloud" 🤣)
 
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We made the mistake at the advent of nuclear that energy needed to be "free" in order for human civilization to escape scarcity. Even if nuclear had ended up "too cheap to meter", it was still centralized and hoardable.

Elon doesn't even need to get overall costs down from here, it's the decentralizing function that will create freedom since hoarding(the expression of greed) will have been rendered impossible. Energy costs will be about 50% lower under wind/solar+storage, but even running at today's optimal fossil fuel cost basis would be fine. It's the stability of decentralized sustainable abundance that's super valuable to real human life.

Another good way to think of it is we're moving from a penetration-based fossil dynamic, to something much more passive/labile and resilient. Should be a good bit better.
I was driving around yesterday thinking about this topic and as I passed a roof, whether business or home, I pointed and said "solar needs to be there." Panels need to be on every single place that has a roof. It's a wasted opportunity if not...
 
How much do you think it costs to extract and deliver sunlight to a point of use solar/battery system?


I think the idea that's gonna be ubiquitous enough to end scarcity by 2025 or any other near date is... optimistic.

Yes it's worth doing most places now long-term, but up front costs remain significant (not to mention the various states/utils fighting or actively passing laws to jack those folks)- not to mention panels and especially good stationary storage remains expensive and in short supply and is expected to continue that way for a while yet. Even Tesla, way ahead of the curve, says they go back to cell constrained on cars alone next year let alone powerwalls that are back ordered worse than the cars.


And anybody who doesn't own won't be doing their own solar/batteries either- it's possible their landlord will and charge em for it though at a profit. Ditto commercial real estate (where last I knew only 10% was owner occupied)
 
Tesla has been down ~2x most of the day. There was a period where Tesla recovered a bit and was ahead of the curve where it was still over ~1x. Beyond that it is been roughly where it is now.
Since 8:30 this morning (pacific time). TSLA stopped following the macros higher and is about to pass a 2X beta. We’ll be lucky if it holds that 2X beta and doesn’t go down farther.
 
We made the mistake at the advent of nuclear that energy needed to be "free" in order for human civilization to escape scarcity. Even if nuclear had ended up "too cheap to meter", it was still centralized and hoardable.

Elon doesn't even need to get overall costs down from here, it's the decentralizing function that will create freedom since hoarding(the expression of greed) will have been rendered impossible. Energy costs will be about 50% lower under wind/solar+storage, but even running at today's optimal fossil fuel cost basis would be fine. It's the stability of decentralized sustainable abundance that's super valuable to real human life.

Another good way to think of it is we're moving from a penetration-based fossil dynamic, to something much more passive/labile and resilient. Should be a good bit better.
This is the key.

Scarcity isn't about how much a thing exists. It's about whether or not a resource can be monopolized and controlled.

If a resource cannot be monopolized, the price of that resource drops to the cost of production plus the cost of materials. In the case of energy, cost of production is equal to the depreciation of localized solar panels and battery cells. The only way grid power survives is if they can produce power for less than that cost.

... or in the USA, we create legislation that bolsters those who have monopolies on power generation.
 
Do we have first cut estimates from @The Accountant or anyone else for Q2. I vaguely remember discussion about some estimates but dont see anything in the quarterly financials thread. I suppose Q2 will be gnarly because of added depreciation from Austin and Berlin. Not sure how the expense for non-production days at Shanghai will counted. Are these workers on hourly + overtime pay? How about those who could not work due to covid restrictions?

Anyways, curious to see if we will do more in EPS than Q2 2021, that will keep the march going towards a lower TTM PE.

2Q21 GAAP was $1.02 EPS, so TTM PE should trend nicely regardless. My 2Q estimates are for GAAP EPS $2.05-$4.05. I literally think we could fall anywhere in there depending one-time stuff and what ends up happening with June deliveries.

Either way, 2022 guidance being maintained will be a monster rocket launch IMO. MM's are lulling the options market to sleep and I think they're about ready to steamroll all these covered call options sitting at an end of July PE <90. There's no other direct to go knowing that at a minimum 3Q and 4Q earnings will be blowout.

Forecast is for more volatility and bad craziness, depending on which thread you're in.

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The only way energy can actually become close to free is if the entire ecosystem costs almost nothing to operate, right from resource extraction to the actual energy production and delivery infrastructure

Otherwise if energy is so cheap that companies aren't making money, free market dynamics will reduce investment and reduce output until energy prices rise enough for money to be made
We're just stuck thinking about the primary cost component being fuel. Fuel is free from here on out, there is no extraction. What's needed is the technology and services key to absorbing, storing and distributing the energy. Find a big company innovating those things and invest!
 
Esp. since India gets only 3% of its crude from Russia ;)

Used to get 3% from Russia.


Edit: Better article....

 
My take away from this discussion of scarcity is that land will be the next thing to be hoarded and which will block dreams of Star Trek-like social utopia.
Please elaborate upon how you come to this conclusion. Do you mean land for installing solar?

IIRC, Tony Seba's calculations are that a 100 mi. sq. solar array will support the existing needs of the continental United States. That could easily be spread around to existing rooftops without purchasing any additional land.
 
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You probably could have waited. TSLA getting weaker and weaker throughout the day compared to the macros. Was only down 1X the Nasdaq for most of the morning, now approaching 2X
It's going to be a tough week price-wise. I am satisfied buying in at 650. I am lousy at calling the top or bottom.
 
Since 8:30 this morning (pacific time). TSLA stopped following the macros higher and is about to pass a 2X beta. We’ll be lucky if it holds that 2X beta and doesn’t go down farther.
At open the beta was 1.35. At 10 it moved to 1.84. At 10:30 it was 1.72. At 11:30 it was 1.30. Right now it is 1.6. Seems it is just moving around.
 
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It's going to be a tough week price-wise. I am satisfied buying in at 650. I am lousy at calling the top or bottom.

Don't worry, no one is particularly good at calling tops and bottoms in advance. If that were possible to do with any reliability, people like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates would never become the richest people in the world or their wealth would be derived from stock trading, not stock ownership.
 
I was driving around yesterday thinking about this topic and as I passed a roof, whether business or home, I pointed and said "solar needs to be there." Panels need to be on every single place that has a roof. It's a wasted opportunity if not...
Agreed. Even places that don't currently have a roof, like open parking, would be great candidates. I see big businesses where the parking lots are huge but uncovered and think these would be perfect spots for solar panels. It would be great for the employees vehicles and provide relatively inexpensive power for the company and perhaps the grid.

Look around, there is a bunch of usable space available, not just roofs (rooves?).