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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If you going to make a career on Youtube, just make sure you have orders of magnitude more success than I.

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Tho I would like to know in your opinion where Tesla is taking this using the FSD software stack? Why are they spending so much time doing all the classical stuff right now? And you mentioned that deep learning also doesn't translate very well into the real world, what can potentially Tesla bring to the table that can make it work?
 
Ultrasonics deletion --> Roughly $600/$60k = 1% extra for vehicle gross margin

I don't think anyone outside the company saw this coming, so naturally all of us rational agents in the efficient stock market have been immediately updating vehicle COGS in our models. Right?

I just shifted my cost per car down by $0.5k starting in Q1 and that added $0.40/share to my 2023 estimates.
@mongo thinks that the savings is actually more like $100-150 in which case this benefit is more like $0.10/share in 2023. That's still a pretty nice savings.

mongo also calculated that the real weight of the hardware is probably 3.5-5 kg, so I was off by 2x or 3x with the 10 kg guess. 4 kg is 0.25% of a Model 3's mass so it's appreciable but not a huge weight advantage. I guess that it maybe adds a kilometer of range for city driving if that's roughly proportional to vehicle weight.

On the other hand mongo also pointed out that the cost savings will probably occur pretty much immediately, not with a lag like I was initially thinking. If so, this will impact Q4 to the extent that Tesla transitions 3Y production to this design over the course of Q4.
 
I’m so tempted to sell my house and travel the world to work on my YouTube channel. In the past year it has gone up 400k. I don’t trust the Calgary housing market or the Canadian one. Prices like this just seems like they are going to crash down pretty hard. It’s already starting to come down in Vancouver and Toronto. Only reason why it hasn’t come down much in Calgary is cause oil prices is still pretty high and people from Vancouver and Toronto are moving here cause it’s way more affordable. Eventually, that will probably slow down cause of rising interest rates. Anyways, I would feel a lot better with that 400k in TSLA. The only dependent I have is my dog who I would take with me. Just wondering what you all think?

Fellow Calgarians here. Calgary housing will be fine. It’s a bargain by Canadian standards. Calgary has the highest average income in Canada and it’s really affordable compared to other cities. Don’t forget we have over 300k immigrants coming into the country ANNUALLY and Calgary is way more affordable to newcomers compared to the insane market in Toronto and Vancouver.

Think Calgary as Las Vegas north. As soon as Californians discover how affordable Vegas is, the entire LS housing market shot up. Yes there is a correction going on now but it’s way above its historical average.

400k in in TSLA can easily be worth 250k or 600k next month. Are you ok with the huge swing? If you travel to a new destination and there was a bad day like yesterday and your net worth drops by $40k in a single day, are you going to make excellent video as always?

What is your YouTube link? Best of luck in your adventure.
 
I’m so tempted to sell my house and travel the world to work on my YouTube channel. In the past year it has gone up 400k. I don’t trust the Calgary housing market or the Canadian one. Prices like this just seems like they are going to crash down pretty hard. It’s already starting to come down in Vancouver and Toronto. Only reason why it hasn’t come down much in Calgary is cause oil prices is still pretty high and people from Vancouver and Toronto are moving here cause it’s way more affordable. Eventually, that will probably slow down cause of rising interest rates. Anyways, I would feel a lot better with that 400k in TSLA. The only dependent I have is my dog who I would take with me. Just wondering what you all think?
The housing market has come down significantly in the Pacific NorthWest in the last 3 months. Houses listed 3 months ago sold in a few days over the list prices, and now similar homes don’t move even after a couple price drops.
You should sell if your market is still good as it will cool off too!
 
Fellow Calgarians here. Calgary housing will be fine. It’s a bargain by Canadian standards. Calgary has the highest average income in Canada and it’s really affordable compared to other cities. Don’t forget we have over 300k immigrants coming into the country ANNUALLY and Calgary is way more affordable to newcomers compared to the insane market in Toronto and Vancouver.

Think Calgary as Las Vegas north. As soon as Californians discover how affordable Vegas is, the entire LS housing market shot up. Yes there is a correction going on now but it’s way above its historical average.

400k in in TSLA can easily be worth 250k or 600k next month. Are you ok with the huge swing? If you travel to a new destination and there was a bad day like yesterday and your net worth drops by $40k in a single day, are you going to make excellent video as always?

What is your YouTube link? Best of luck in your adventure.
Part of the correction might be due to the moratorium on real estate sales to foreigners which currently lasts about another 18 months I believe. Something to maybe consider in your calculations/projections.
 
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Fellow Calgarians here. Calgary housing will be fine. It’s a bargain by Canadian standards. Calgary has the highest average income in Canada and it’s really affordable compared to other cities. Don’t forget we have over 300k immigrants coming into the country ANNUALLY and Calgary is way more affordable to newcomers compared to the insane market in Toronto and Vancouver.

Think Calgary as Las Vegas north. As soon as Californians discover how affordable Vegas is, the entire LS housing market shot up. Yes there is a correction going on now but it’s way above its historical average.

400k in in TSLA can easily be worth 250k or 600k next month. Are you ok with the huge swing? If you travel to a new destination and there was a bad day like yesterday and your net worth drops by $40k in a single day, are you going to make excellent video as always?

What is your YouTube link? Best of luck in your adventure.
Thanks for the insight. It’s definitely a hard thing to judge. One thing I do know is I feel there is a lot greater potential in TSLA over the next couple years than Calgary real estate. I could be wrong though.

My YouTube channel is called Jonesing For Food. I have a fair number of Calgary reviews.

https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCLHdlMu4QbswaRcMNm2gStw
 
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Thanks for the insight. It’s definitely a hard thing to judge. One thing I do know is I feel there is a lot greater potential in TSLA over the next couple years than Calgary real estate. I could be wrong though.

My YouTube channel is called Jonesing For Food. I have a fair number of Calgary reviews.

https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCLHdlMu4QbswaRcMNm2gStw

Couldn't you take a home equity loan against your house and invest that? You seem willing to take a bit of risk.
 
Sounds like Tesla might be considering not reporting P&D numbers and only having the earnings call. I'd vote for that. Put an end to the Wall Street circus.

This change will make more and more sense as Tesla diversifies its business into Energy and Storage Products, AI and Robotics Services, Robotaxi / Tesla Network, Insurance and who knows however many others I've missed. :)
 
Great read on China's EV landscape -
" About a year ago, the number of launched products that could credibly be called direct 3/Y competitors looked roughly like this:

  • Nio ES6/EC6
  • BYD Han
  • BYD Tang
Note that by credible and direct I mean products in roughly the same category, from reputable brands, with a focus on connectivity and semi-premium market positioning — any product that could conceivably take a sale away from the 3/Y.

In the past year, these additions have started production:

  • Xpeng P5
  • Zeekr 001
  • Roewe Marvel R
  • GAC Aion S Plus
  • GAC Aion LX Plus
  • BYD Yuan Plus
  • BYD Song Plus
In the last three months alone, the following products have now launched:

  • BYD Seal
  • Nio ET5
  • Nio ES7
  • Xpeng G9
  • Li L9
  • Li L8
  • Changan Shenlan 03
  • Changan Avatr 011
  • SAIC Rising R7
  • SAIC IM L7
  • Leap Motor C01
  • Hozon Neta S
  • Aito M5 EV"

Read more here at TIC reddit
 
I don't know how removing the ultrasonic sensors will improve AutoPark in situations like in this video.

"I don't know" does not mean "it is impossible", it just means you are not capable of figuring it out.
Start with looking at videos and not still images.
Occupancy network gives the car "3D awareness with memory" i.e. it remembers what the space car currently occupies looked like when it was approaching it.
 
I’m 40 with no kids and single. I would miss my friends but I could always come back. I do love Calgary and think it’s an awesome city too. I’m just thinking this might be the right time to do something like this.

I did my "Year without a Winter" when I was 41 years old. Awesome time cycle touring through Hawaii (the Big Island), New Zealand (both Islands), and Australia (a really big Island). Spent 5 hours per day in the saddle, 6 days a week, got in the best shape of my (post-Army) life, and loved every moment of the experience. Met so many interesting folks while travelling...

Highly recommended. Stay in touch, post some pix... ;)
 
Occupancy network gives the car "3D awareness with memory" i.e. it remembers what the space car currently occupies looked like when it was approaching it.
I understand. Looking at the video, it doesn't seem to me the Tesla cars have a great 3D awareness with memory. AutoPark was introduced a while ago now. The legacy manufacturer cars seem to do a better job parking themselves.