Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Shanghai 3/Y will still have ultrasonics. For how long? Not sure.

Getting 'single-stack' approved for sales in China and other markets like the EU is a potential sticking point.

Clearly, the FSD Beta engine will be at the heart of Tesla Vision. This is great news for all Tesla owners, as I have said here before, 'Safety' features will be standard on all Tesla cars, while 'Convenience' features (like Navigate on City Streets) will be extra cost options.

Best bit for Tesla? All their HDW 3+ fleet will joint the data colection pool.

 

[Buckminster]

X.com chit chat:
X.com Social Media Platform

 

[EVMeister]

I understand. Looking at the video, it doesn't seem to me the Tesla cars have a great 3D awareness with memory. AutoPark was introduced a while ago now. The legacy manufacturer cars seem to do a better job parking themselves.

That's because they aren't using their occupancy network or at least the current version of it used for FSD beta in the video. They're using old code that has largely remained unchanged for years coupled with ultrasonics. The "new way" of doing things, which they feel will replace the need for ultrasonics, is completely different. And you can't gauge how well it will work based on the completely different system being demonstrated there.

 

[printf42]

Great read on China's EV landscape -
" About a year ago, the number of launched products that could credibly be called direct 3/Y competitors looked roughly like this:

• Nio ES6/EC6
• BYD Han
• BYD Tang

Note that by credible and direct I mean products in roughly the same category, from reputable brands, with a focus on connectivity and semi-premium market positioning — any product that could conceivably take a sale away from the 3/Y.

In the past year, these additions have started production:

• Xpeng P5
• Zeekr 001
• Roewe Marvel R
• GAC Aion S Plus
• GAC Aion LX Plus
• BYD Yuan Plus
• BYD Song Plus

In the last three months alone, the following products have now launched:

• BYD Seal
• Nio ET5
• Nio ES7
• Xpeng G9
• Li L9
• Li L8
• Changan Shenlan 03
• Changan Avatr 011
• SAIC Rising R7
• SAIC IM L7
• Leap Motor C01
• Hozon Neta S
• Aito M5 EV"

Read more here at TIC reddit

Any article that claims BYD is directly comparable will be ignored by me instantly, BYD can ship large volume only because it’s cheap, nothing comparable. Some other offerings from NIO/Xiaopeng etc are actually ok, but putting PHEV from Li Auto in the same list is again questionable.

Overall, FUD to me.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla surpasses 10,000 Supercharger stalls in Europe

Tesla’s Supercharger network in Europe has grown significantly over the last several months and there are now over 10,000 Supercharger stalls at nearly 900 stations in 30 countries across the continent. The feat was recently [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Huskyf]

Oh no! I use these extensively whilst manoeuvring into and out of my underground parking spot (closest point of approach for two manoeuvres).

No change on cars they have it only new cars I suspect they add a front camera on bupper

 

[FlamingPIG]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   

1. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.

1. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

 

[lascavarian]

That's because they aren't using their occupancy network or at least the current version of it used for FSD beta in the video. They're using old code that has largely remained unchanged for years coupled with ultrasonics. The "new way" of doing things, which they feel will replace the need for ultrasonics, is completely different. And you can't gauge how well it will work based on the completely different system being demonstrated there.

My understanding is that the NN learning can require a large compute footprint initially. If you can’t expand the footprint with HW then eventually latency is eroded.

With low speed (like parking) latency is far less an issue.

Seems to me the big win with removing ultrasonics will be some gain in freed up compute and a bit of resulting latency. If a large field action (retrofit) to HW 4 can be avoided then that is huge to both staffing and budgets related to delivering FSD.

Memory was that some benefit from ultrasonics related to monitoring the tire condition. This may be a full loss or partial loss for a time. YMMV

 

[ToTheStars]

That's because they aren't using their occupancy network or at least the current version of it used for FSD beta in the video. They're using old code that has largely remained unchanged for years coupled with ultrasonics. The "new way" of doing things, which they feel will replace the need for ultrasonics, is completely different. And you can't gauge how well it will work based on the completely different system being demonstrated there.

Thanks for your explanation. Let's hope this YouTube channel wil review AutoPark again after their cars are upgraded to the occupancy network version of FSD.

 

[NooB_cat]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   
3. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
2. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

Chicken has turned into a greedy Donkey, actually shorting this stock and trying to encourage others to do the same. Many of his arguements for this are complete BS IMHO.
Also, China wait times are back up already and he should have known that at the time of making his video a few days later

Tesla Extends Delivery Wait Times for Most Models in China to 4-8 Weeks - TeslaNorth.com

Tesla has increased delivery wait times for all models except the entry-level Model Y in China to 4-8 weeks — reports CnEVPost. The move is in stark contrast with delivery timeline changes made by Tesla in recent weeks, which cut wait times down significantly. For some models, Tesla managed to...

teslanorth.com

 

[Chenkers]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   
3. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
2. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

Sasha's takedown video exposing Ken/ChickenGenius from a few months ago is as relevant now as ever. Basically exposing him for giving very bad investment advice and making money from selling high risk, get rich quick courses. I used to like Ken/ChickenGenius but lost all respect for him some time ago.

 

[verystandard]

Sasha's takedown video exposing Ken/ChickenGenius from a few months ago is as relevant now as ever. Basically exposing him for giving very bad investment advice and making money from selling high risk, get rich quick courses. I used to like Ken/ChickenGenius but lost all respect for him some time ago.

Do you think Elon and the team will let all factories sits on empty/idle while looking at each other like union workers when new order coming? These people are the most versatile we've ever seen and I could imagine they will start producing cheaper/more affordable Tesla cars in high volume if needed and still got lots of room to wiggle around for profit margin. My wife will definitely be the first one to order a smaller/more economical Tesla car if this ever available.

 

[Kenypowa]

Chicken has turned into a greedy Donkey, actually shorting this stock and trying to encourage others to do the same. Many of his arguements for this are complete BS IMHO.
Also, China wait times are back up already and he should have known that at the time of making his video a few days later

Tesla Extends Delivery Wait Times for Most Models in China to 4-8 Weeks - TeslaNorth.com

Tesla has increased delivery wait times for all models except the entry-level Model Y in China to 4-8 weeks — reports CnEVPost. The move is in stark contrast with delivery timeline changes made by Tesla in recent weeks, which cut wait times down significantly. For some models, Tesla managed to...

teslanorth.com

When TSLA was $620 a few minutes this ago, chicken genius had a synthetic short position (buying puts and selling covered calls). Obviously the stock price didn’t go as he planned and his CC shares were called away.

It sucks for him but he is literally turning into the donkey that he preached against. After all he had price target of $1600 early this year and now it’s just $420 ($533 and $140 post split).

It shows even some smart “investors” like to time the market and it doesn’t always work out.

 

[Atomsla]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

My views:

1 - This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
Cars sales will probably not be all that great in a poor economic situation. However, Tesla sales didn't exactly hurt during covid times. If demand does outpace production, Tesla will reduce prices, ship elsewhere or combine the two.
2 - Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
See answer to point 1.
3 - Market share decreasing
Yes, ICE market share is decreasing. Good news imo.
4 - Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.
Same as point 2.
5 - Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
I dont know what needs explaining. Tesla is doing a great job keeping cost low. Thats something everyone here knows, but I guess 'we' don't.
6 - Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.
Yes it will. It might result in slightly lower profits per car sold, but I'm sure it'll be hard to spot the difference seen globally.

This is really almost all about questioning demand. There is a LOT of room for Tesla to adjust demand swiftly and simply while maintaining a very good profit margin. As of this post, they've done nothing (to my knowledge) besides a ~$1100 insurance incentive in China.
The guys points are weak and unconvincing, as his short position should be.

 

[Artful Dodger]

When TSLA was $620 a few minutes this ago, chicken genius had a synthetic short position (buying puts and selling covered calls). Obviously the stock price didn’t go as he planned and his CC shares were called away.

It sucks for him but he is literally turning into the donkey that he preached against. After all he had price target of $1600 early this year and now it’s just $420 ($533 and $140 post split).

It shows even some smart “investors” like to time the market and it doesn’t always work out.

Sometimes a donkey is just an ass: Ken posted his all-time best video March 23, 2022: (thin skin much?)

I'm quitting youtube, all the best

 

[Featsbeyond50]

"companies don’t miss estimates, analysts miss reality" Gali

This is like blaming the police for a bank robbery.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   
3. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
2. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

Declining viewership on his YT channel = shift in strategy to desperation. If he lucks out and the Tesla share price does collapse, he looks like a real genius and people flock back to his channel.

Edit: Reading the later posts here, I see he has a vested interest in a price decline. Probably a more likely motivation for his price estimate than what I just posed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   
3. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
2. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

His video is saying a lot more on his thoughts on the global economy than it is on Tesla.

IMO he's trying to predict what the peak fear/capitulation price (think March 2009 levels of fear) will be when the China property collapse, euro energy crisis and fed tightening crush demand. It's essentially his short term target in that situation only and not his long term valuation of the company.

Put another way, he thinks the unstoppable force (Tesla) might be slowed down a bit by the immovable object (global macro).

Could that price occur for a few days shouldhis macro belief eventuate? Yep. Would the price stay that low for long? Nope.

A good reason to consider leveraged positions carefully when the world gets choppy.

 

[Kenypowa]

Declining viewership on his YT channel = shift in strategy to desperation. If he lucks out and the Tesla share price does collapse, he looks like a real genius and people flock back to his channel.

Edit: Reading the later posts here, I see he has a vested interest in a price decline. Probably a more likely motivation for his price estimate than what I just posed.

What’s ironic is that he had two portfolios: do not touch and itchy finger. And his “do not touch” account lasted maybe one year before he sold out whereas my do not touch account is 7 years and counting.

Thank god we have Rob Mauer, Dave Lee and SMR who are permabulls and do not easily sell out when macro gets tough.

 

[PeterJA]

...This is really almost all about questioning demand. There is a LOT of room for Tesla to adjust demand swiftly and simply while maintaining a very good profit margin....

The greatest generator of Tesla car demand will be the completion of FSD. When only Tesla cars can drive themselves, who will want any other brand? We are months away from that radical shift in the auto market, judging from the current rate of FSD progress and the new AI tools revealed at AI Day 2 (Dojo hardware and software).

Will a bad economy destroy demand for ALL new cars? That seems unlikely, since hard times strike wealthier people less hard. Luxury ICE car sales will shrink, as they have been doing for years, but the last brand to suffer demand destruction will be Tesla.