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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Here is a post that actually is investment and financial advice, in contrast to the unlikely doom and gloom possibilities about which I have written earlier today.

Do you find yourself with any or perhaps all of the following?
  • Rich, varied, healthy, delicious foods
  • Clean freshwater on tap that is reliable and cheap
  • Modern medical care
  • Computer, smartphone and broadband internet connection almost everywhere you go, and the literacy necessary to take advantage of it
  • Literal metric tons of material possessions
  • Electricity that is reliable and cheap
  • Automatic indoor heating and cooling, and even humidity control if you want it
  • Bed with a mattress and plenty of sheets and blankets
  • Ability to walk outside alone without significant risk of being murdered or mauled by a bear/other predator
  • Refrigerator, stove, oven, dishwasher, salt, herbs, spices, pots, pans and a wide variety of other unnecessary specialized kitchen tools and appliances
  • Motorized transport (car, bus, train, plane, boat, e-bike, etc.)
  • Multiple pairs of shoes and clothes, with fashion as the primary consideration
  • Washing and drying machines
  • Waste removal services for your poop and trash
  • A shower, and multiple options for soap and towels
  • Contraceptives
  • Toothbrush and toothpaste that prevents you from losing teeth and having severe gum disease by age 40
  • Cameras
  • Access to barbell equipment that could make you strong if only you'll use it
  • Access to scientific knowledge that wasn't even known until very recently
  • Access to billions of songs of your choosing and speakers that can play it on demand with nearly perfect fidelity
  • Low likelihood of compulsory military service
  • Low likelihood of you, your partner, or someone you know dying in childbirth or losing an infant to something like typhoid, influenza or yellow fever
  • Low likelihood of your government unjustly seizing all your property, or imprisoning you, or executing you
  • More high-quality entertainment options than you have time for
  • Freedom to say anything you want, within reason
  • Freedom to associate with anyone you want, within reason
  • Freedom to travel almost anywhere on the globe, or even get a spectacular view of the ground from the actual stratosphere while doing this travel
  • Freedom to elect who runs your country
If you have this stuff, or maybe even more additional amazing stuff like it, then I want to congratulate you, because your life is insanely awesome. You are fabulously rich in a way that the majority of humans alive today would love to have, and the majority of humans who have ever lived, even kings and emperors, couldn't even imagine. If you're here on the TMC investor forum, then I bet you're probably even very rich compared to the majority of the population in the country you live in, and they also have all this stuff.

If you have this stuff and still are experiencing fear about finances or anxiety ultimately rooted in worries about economic scarcity, is the problem that you don't have enough already, or the feeling itself? Is an irrationally falling TSLA stock price a good reason to be in a grumpy mood right now?

It's a very natural and understandable human feeling to experience, considering that historically contentment was never optimal for maximizing reproductive success.

But you are a modern rational human. Homo sapiens sapiens. You have that computer, that internet connection, that access to knowledge and ideas, strangers who can encourage you through books or podcasts or YouTube, and the free time (if you made room for it by sacrificing some of this aforementioned abundance) to come up with a new way of thinking about your situation that makes you happier and more joyful. Here's a couple good places to start:


If Mr. Money Mustache is not your cup of tea, how about recent wisdom from our Technoking?
Humans collectively are sort of a superintelligence as well, especially as we improve the data rate between humans. The Internet was like humanity acquiring a nervous system ... Any student of history would agree with this. Books would be incredibly expensive ... Only a small number people even had a book ... [Now] you can learn basically anything for free. It's pretty incredible. I was asked recently "What period of history would I like to be at the most?" and my answer was "Right now. This is the most interesting time in history".
 
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Yeah, this is those big investment banks trying (hard) to get all the money back that they've lost over the years shorting TSLA. I'll just toss out a few names: Bernstein, RBC, JPMorgas, Roth Capital Partners, to name a few.

It's not a coincidence they're appearing daily on CNBC, now pushing Putin FUD (despicable)......................
CNBC with anything that could stick to Putin today......................and on the very front page of MSN yesterday claiming Tesla EVs were exploding all over Florida. While I still haven't seen any exploding Tesla EVs here yet, I do think I might recognize the name of someone who owns an awful lot of MSN that had a short position against TSLA recently...........

1665524211756.png
 
Agree, however given where oil and gas prices are now, I don't forsee any demand problems anytime soon. Because of a combination of high oil prices and heavy refinery regulation in California, we are seeing $7/gal gas now. I've heard from multiple people here that they are accelerating their EV purchasing decisions because even if prices come back down, they don't forsee them staying down. Demand destruction is real.
Yep, when the monthly gasoline bill is the same as an EV monthly payment, then it's a no-brainer.
I talked to a full time Uber driver who rents a Hertz Model 3, he said renting is the same cost as his gas bill driving his old Honda CR-V
 
Here is a post that actually is investment and financial advice, in contrast to the unlikely doom and gloom possibilities about which I have written earlier today.

Do you find yourself with any or perhaps all of the following?
  • Rich, varied, healthy, delicious foods
  • Clean freshwater on tap that is reliable and cheap
  • Modern medical care
  • Computer, smartphone and broadband internet connection almost everywhere you go, and the literacy necessary to take advantage of it
  • Literal metric tons of material possessions
  • Electricity that is reliable and cheap
  • Automatic indoor heating and cooling, and even humidity control if you want it
  • Bed with a mattress and plenty of sheets and blankets
  • Ability to walk outside alone without significant risk of being murdered or mauled by a bear/other predator
  • Refrigerator, stove, oven, dishwasher, salt, herbs, spices, pots, pans and a wide variety of other unnecessary specialized kitchen tools and appliances
  • Motorized transport (car, bus, train, plane, boat, e-bike, etc.)
  • Multiple pairs of shoes and clothes, with fashion as the primary consideration
  • Washing and drying machines
  • Waste removal services
  • A shower, and multiple options for soap and towels
  • Contraceptives
  • Toothbrush and toothpaste that prevents you from losing teeth and having severe gum disease by age 40
  • Cameras
  • Access to barbell equipment that could make you strong if only you'll use it
  • Access to scientific knowledge that wasn't even known until very recently
  • Access to billions of songs of your choosing and speakers that can play it on demand with nearly perfect fidelity
  • Low likelihood of compulsory military service
  • Low likelihood of you, your partner, or someone you know dying in childbirth or losing an infant to something like typhoid, influenza or yellow fever
  • Low likelihood of your government unjustly seizing all your property, or imprisoning you, or executing you
  • More high-quality entertainment options than you have time for
  • Freedom to say anything you want, within reason
  • Freedom to associate with anyone you want, within reason
  • Freedom to travel almost anywhere on the globe, or even get a spectacular view of the ground from the actual stratosphere while doing this travel
  • Freedom to elect who runs your country
If you have this stuff, or maybe even more additional amazing stuff like it, then I want to congratulate you, because your life is insanely awesome. You are fabulously rich in a way that the majority of humans alive today would love to have, and the majority of humans who have ever lived, even kings and emperors, couldn't even imagine. If you're here on the TMC investor forum, then I bet you're probably even very rich compared to the majority of the population in the country you live in, and they also have all this stuff.

If you have this stuff and still are experiencing fear about finances or anxiety ultimately rooted in worries about economic scarcity, is the problem that you don't have enough already, or the feeling itself? Is an irrationally falling TSLA stock price a good reason to be in a grumpy mood right now?

It's a very natural and understandable human feeling to experience, considering that historically contentment was never optimal for maximizing reproductive success.

But you are a modern rational human. Homo sapiens sapiens. You have that computer, that internet connection, that access to knowledge and ideas, strangers who can encourage you through books or podcasts or YouTube, and the free time (if you made room for it by sacrificing some of this aforementioned abundance) to come up with a new way of thinking about your situation that makes you happier and more joyful. Here's a couple good places to start:


If Mr. Money Mustache is not your cup of tea, how about recent wisdom from our Technoking?
Thanks for posting that @Gigapress. I forwarded it to several folks who are feeling pretty anxious, I think it will help.
 
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About stock buy back, I think after Q3 it would become increasingly clear they are raking in more cash than they know what to do with.

They projected 12-18 months of global economy slowdown, so unlikely they would start many new GFs beside the one they were going to announce end of this year.

For the next year or so they will be ramping up Berlin and Austin and raking in even more FCF, and not have much more need for spending.

They need to park those cash somewhere, and TSLA looks like a much better option than Bitcoin at this time.

Depending on how FSD progresses, new factories might be dedicated to RoboTaxi, when they need the money for new factories or their own fleet, it would be after FSD is clearly working and been piloted at smaller scale. Market would be throwing money at Tesla at that point. So even if they need to issue some new stock at that point it would be at a better price, making buy back now a good investment.


Unrelated rants:
On the topic of piloting FSD, one thought struck me today:
They recently added the capability for cars to automatically adjust air suspension on known rough roads. If they expand that to include “known tough turns”, and avoid that in FSD navigation route calculations, they might be able to get from point A to point B pretty well already.
Maybe they don’t want to do that too early so they can collect more data about those difficult cases for training.
But if they want to, they might be able to roll out a pilot program much earlier than people would think, just with that.
 
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I bought my first 10 shares of Tesla back at May 29 2019 and I'm still consistently purchasing a few shares every few days making sure to averaging down.

Below are two hit pieces that is around 2019 and funny it sounds pretty much the same in 2022 as well.

I expect things should turns out the same this time when we looked back 2 years later. Good luck to us all!

screenshot.JPG


fools.JPG


investopedia.JPG
 
Hmm.

I've heard this so many times.

"... off the charts..."

"... going to pop..."

Just a couple weeks ago deliveries were supposed to cause the SP to explode.

Right now I'm expecting nothing but pain. Any good news will likely cause things to be flat at best. We'll drift sideways for some time yet.

Only surprises will be positive.
Normally in a rate rise cycle/recession there's a point where a bunch of companies fail and people are running scared. From what I have seen there has been no major bankruptcies and people at worst think they're a little gassy.
 
Normally in a rate rise cycle/recession there's a point where a bunch of companies fail and people are running scared. From what I have seen there has been no major bankruptcies and people at worst think they're a little gassy.
Don't think anyone is failing. Hell I think Tesla is in great shape.

I just refuse to anticipate the SP will make any major moves in the positive direction soon. SP is stuck in FU mode and I don't expect that will change. Kind of sick of people telling me why in XXX days the stock is going to pop. Been hearing this refrain all damned year long. The stock will eventually right itself. But experience over the past 9 months suggests it's gonna go sideways at best for some time yet regardless of any news.


I would love for this to be the time the boy who cried wolf is finally right. I'm just not investing or holding out hope on any short term turnaround in the SP regardless of news.