Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

The Good

• Development shortcuts enabled Ford to get this out to market faster
• Stuff successfully routed through small crevices to enable giant frunk that's easy to access even for people who are short
• Some differences in frame design vs. ICE F-150 improves effective performance of the shocks
• Sturdy structure
• Some structural cradles in legacy ICE design deleted
• Rims look futuristic
• Much simpler than Rivian R1T chassis

The Bad

My favorite polite understatements:

"That's a lot of lines"

"There's still a lot going on there from a routing perspective"

"From a packaging perspective...there's a lot of room for optimization"

"The thermal management can all be condensed and that would clean this up, but nonetheless they were able to get it all packaged in here"

• Basically a traditional gas F-150 architecture that was retrofitted in a hurry in order to have an electric powertrain
• Horrible system integration; mostly a chaotic hodgepodge of off-the-shelf modules purchased from suppliers
• Coolant hoses and extra wires and fasteners all over
• Ugly mess, which makes installation more difficult and makes defects less visually self-evident
• Traditional body-on-frame construction inherently heavier and less stiff than Cybertruck aerospace-style stressed skin design (4 mm thick stamped parts in many locations to compensate for inferior geometry)
• No castings, frame assembly requires many stamped parts and fastening and welding operations
• Inefficient non-structural monuments that only perform crash safety functions but do not support other loads
• Battery mounts to big, heavy stamped steel subframe
• Simple spring suspension without adaptive height and stiffness

This is the latest generation of America's best-selling truck for the last four decades. Ford appears to have learned no lessons from the Mach-E thermal management disaster, or their design process is so slow and rigid that implementations of the fixes have been postponed until future model years. This is the result of not even bothering to take EVs slightly seriously until 2018 and having a typical 7-year product development timeline.

North American pickup trucks are the most profitable vehicle segment in the whole global auto industry, and Cybertruck's competitive advantage is much stronger than I had estimated before seeing this video.

 

[KMCC]

Was down in Bay area house-sitting for 3 weeks in September. Drove down 19th to 280 one day. At one point sitting at a signal, counted 5 Tesla's in the surrounding pack. Crazy, I had thought Seattle had a lot!

Here in Connecticut sometimes I don't even wave at the other Tesla's there are so many around

I remember back in 2017 we would honk at each other and kids would stop playing soccer and look now Tesla's are everywhere.

 

[wipster]

Money losing RIVN now doing better than TSLA today.

But TSLA is doing a little better than the EV juggernaut Lucid....

(So a strong earnings is not priced in at all yet)

Really?

Rivian up 6.93% or a big 1.99
Tesla up 7.01% or 14.36, higher AH.

 

[insaneoctane]

The Good

• Development shortcuts enabled Ford to get this out to market faster
• Stuff successfully routed through small crevices to enable giant frunk that's easy to access even for people who are short
• Some differences in frame design vs. ICE F-150 improves effective performance of the shocks
• Sturdy structure
• Some structural cradles in legacy ICE design deleted
• Rims look futuristic
• Much simpler than Rivian R1T chassis

The Bad

• Basically a traditional gas F-150 architecture that was retrofitted in a hurry in order to have an electric powertrain
• Horrible system integration; mostly a chaotic hodgepodge of off-the-shelf modules purchased from suppliers
• Coolant hoses and extra wires and fasteners all over
• Ugly mess, which makes installation more difficult and makes defects less visually self-evident
• Traditional body-on-frame construction inherently heavier and less stiff than Cybertruck aerospace-style stressed skin design (4 mm thick stamped parts in many locations to compensate for inferior geometry)
• No castings, frame assembly requires many stamped parts and fastening and welding operations
• Inefficient non-structural monuments that only perform crash safety functions but do not support other loads
• Battery mounts to big, heavy stamped steel subframe
• Simple spring suspension without adaptive height and stiffness

View attachment 864794 View attachment 864795 View attachment 864796 View attachment 864801 View attachment 864802 View attachment 864804 View attachment 864806 View attachment 864811 View attachment 864812

This is the latest generation of America's best-selling truck for the last four decades. Ford appears to have learned no lessons from the Mach-E thermal management disaster, or their design process is so slow and rigid that implementations of the fixes have been postponed until future model years. North American pickup trucks are the most profitable vehicle segment in the whole global auto industry, and Cybertruck's competitive advantage is much stronger than I had estimated before seeing this video.

Missed a "Pro":

• Lots of extra stuff for unionized labor to assemble

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The Good

• Development shortcuts enabled Ford to get this out to market faster
• Stuff successfully routed through small crevices to enable giant frunk that's easy to access even for people who are short
• Some differences in frame design vs. ICE F-150 improves effective performance of the shocks
• Sturdy structure
• Some structural cradles in legacy ICE design deleted
• Rims look futuristic
• Much simpler than Rivian R1T chassis

The Bad

• Basically a traditional gas F-150 architecture that was retrofitted in a hurry in order to have an electric powertrain
• Horrible system integration; mostly a chaotic hodgepodge of off-the-shelf modules purchased from suppliers
• Coolant hoses and extra wires and fasteners all over
• Ugly mess, which makes installation more difficult and makes defects less visually self-evident
• Traditional body-on-frame construction inherently heavier and less stiff than Cybertruck aerospace-style stressed skin design (4 mm thick stamped parts in many locations to compensate for inferior geometry)
• No castings, frame assembly requires many stamped parts and fastening and welding operations
• Inefficient non-structural monuments that only perform crash safety functions but do not support other loads
• Battery mounts to big, heavy stamped steel subframe
• Simple spring suspension without adaptive height and stiffness

<pictures>
This is the latest generation of America's best-selling truck for the last four decades. Ford appears to have learned no lessons from the Mach-E thermal management disaster, or their design process is so slow and rigid that implementations of the fixes have been postponed until future model years. North American pickup trucks are the most profitable vehicle segment in the whole global auto industry, and Cybertruck's competitive advantage is much stronger than I had estimated before seeing this video.

Ford is already working on the next generation pick-up.
This helps fulfill a number of compliance requirements, averts any shorter-term competitive threats by showing movement, and proves to the money that EV is a good move.

 

[Gigapress]

Ford is already working on the next generation pick-up.
This helps fulfill a number of compliance requirements, averts any shorter-term competitive threats, and proves to the money that EV is a good move.

The fact that this is what they're shipping in 2022 is not a good sign. This is where they should've been in 2012. I would not want to be one of the manufacturing technicians trying to assemble and inspect the monstrosity that I just witnessed.

Everyone in the general public was waiting for the F-150 Lightning to be the affordable, practical truck for average middle-class buyers but this thing is not anywhere close to suitable for that with all its manufacturing operations, weight, complexity, and part count. Now we can see exactly what a pipe dream that idea was, unless Ford is on pace to dramatically improve from future generations. Either that or Ford is going to accept roughly 0% margin for the entry-level version. However, the rate of (almost nonzero) progress from the Mach-E, which went into production last year, is not indicative that such rapid future progress is likely.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The fact that this is what they're shipping in 2022 is not a good sign. This is where they should've been in 2012. I would not want to be one of the manufacturing technicians trying to assemble and inspect the monstrosity that I just witnessed.

I see it as neutral to positive They hit their target. If somebody wants an electric pick-up they have the product, which will get a workout, they get 4 ZEV credits, a fleet fuel economy boost and they can move onto the next generation with confidence in the future demand.

 

[wipster]

I do believe that we may see something like that. End of year results mean more than QoQ. Still what I believe ending the wave mostly means is they wont go through heroic efforts to get the last week of the month production delivered.

Like to agree with you, but you can bet dollars to donuts that if they're 10,000 or so cars below the 50% mark with a couple weeks left in the quarter, Tesla will be pulling out every weapon to get them delivered before years end. And in this case I hope they do!

 

[thx1139]

Like to agree with you, but you can bet dollars to donuts that if they're 10,000 or so cars below the 50% mark with a couple weeks left in the quarter, Tesla will be pulling out every weapon to get them delivered before years end. And in this case I hope they do!

Fair. I agree with you if 10,000 with a couple weeks left. What about a couple days? If Tesla is close to 500K per quarter production that is 40K per week. So 10K is roughly the last 2 days of year.

 

[wipster]

Fair. I agree with you if 10,000 with a couple weeks left. What about a couple days? If Tesla is close to 500K per quarter production that is 40K per week. So 10K is roughly the last 2 days of year.

It was a guess, shoot me.

 

[thx1139]

It was a guess, shoot me.

Was just asking your thoughts if it comes down to the last few days. In the past they would do all they could to clear out that last week of production.

 

[wipster]

Was just asking your thoughts if it comes down to the last few days. In the past they would do all they could to clear out that last week of production.

And I hope they do here if they need to. Granted it appears that Zach was talking about production and I think that can be pretty easily achieved barring any force majeure, but based on the FUD that came out regarding missed analyst's estimates regarding deliveries in the 3rd qtr, I think that getting the vehicles in the hands of paying customers in the 4th quarter is even more important.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Really?

Rivian up 6.93% or a big 1.99
Tesla up 7.01% or 14.36, higher AH.

Share price for comparison is meaningless without market cap consideration.

Rivian is up $750,000,000
Tesla is up $45,000,000,000 (or 60X greater increase than Rivian)(and TSLA is climbing AH while RIVN is falling AH, but whoz look'n)

 

[Artful Dodger]

...just riding everything out as there was likely to be a blowback from a 15-20x increase in 1.5-2 years.

So the current ~$650B Market Cap valuation of TSLA was set by the Tesla Board of Directors back in April 2018. How so, people may ask? Well, that's the Mkt Cap trigger required to complete Elon's 2018 CEO compensation plan.

Pink-faced "egregious buoy" Craig Irwin and his ilk of TSLA bears and haters were bound and determined to plunge TSLA back to that valuation on the day (this Wednesday) when Elon earns his 12th and final tranche of that plan (10Q is the formality).

Big, oily money don't care about no stinkin' PeeEee rations, no Deemand, no nothin'. It's only about getting their money back. Always has been.

Paging @Krugerrand for the color.



Rose Kabuki Fragrance: the floral fragrance, powdery and musky rose | DIOR CA

P.S. #predict "Burnt Hair" will smell like $325 "Rose Kabuki" fragrance. Coming Q1 2023.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Ha ha. Yahoo Finance just dropped Consensus EPS by another penny. Hey, let's get'er down to 99 pennies on the wall.
What a bunch of Wahooz.

 

[Gigapress]

I see it as neutral to positive They hit their target. If somebody wants an electric pick-up they have the product, which will get a workout, they get 4 ZEV credits, a fleet fuel economy boost and they can move onto the next generation with confidence in the future demand.

Ford makes a large portion of their income on the F-series. The Ford F-150 is an American icon and Ford's flagship product. Many people have fiercely loyal devotion to Ford pickup trucks. For example, this actually happened, in one of the most tragically but quintessentially 'Murican moments of all time:

https://fordauthority.com/2019/05/ford-vs-chevy-argument-escalates-to-shooting/

Ford's public posture this whole time has been framing their core competency as being their profound understanding of what pickup truck buyers want based in a 75-year history of selling F-series pickups. If that is the case, then why would Ford, or their shareholders, need any more proof that electric trucks will sell well as long as you solve range limitations? If they're truck experts, shouldn't they already know that? Are they totally misunderstanding where the market is headed? Could they not see the obvious utility advantages of electric trucks years ago? If nothing else, the million+ reservations for the Cybertruck three years ago should've been their first clue.

Also, Ford's Q2 earnings press release says "According to Motor Intelligence, through the second quarter, Ford E-Transit accounted for 95% of full-size electric vans sold in the U.S. In Europe, the company already has more than 8,000 orders for its two-tonne E-Transit, with a one-tonne version scheduled for introduction next year." Clearly they have market data from their own customers indicating a desire for electric Ford utility vehicles.

Ford's entire future solvency is pretty much solely dependent on their degree of success in selling electric trucks. This effort is not a good sign at all and it's disappointing because I had had higher hopes that they'd figure it out. Sure, for now this product is helping them get ZEV credits and meet CAFE standards, but this truck is not scalable with good margins and it's not going to actually teach them much of anything useful about how to do the job properly, like starting out a mission to reach the Moon by building a tall tower.

The F-150 Lightning as we're seeing it today on Munro Live is a crude alpha prototype that for some reason is being shipped to paying customers even though it's 2022. In particular that thermal system is appalling and Tesla already showed a much better way three years ago with the Model 3 Superbottle. Ford would be better off not wasting time on this mess of a truck and spending more time in R&D to make a design that's actually ready for prime time.

 

[Curt Renz]

Fox Business - TSLA - pre-opening:

 

[mongo]

So the current ~$650B Market Cap valuation of TSLA was set by the Tesla Board of Directors back in April 2018. How so people may ask? Well, that's the Mkt Cap trigger required to complete Elon's 2018 CEO compensation plan.

Pink-faced "egregious buoy" Craig Irwin and his ilk of TSLA bears were bound and determined to plunge TSLA back to that valuation on the day (this Wednesday) when Elon earns his 12th and final tranche of that plan.

Big, oily money don't care about no stinkin' PeeEee rations, no Deemand, no nothin'. It's only about getting the money back. Always has been.

Paging @Krugerrand for the color.



Rose Kabuki Fragrance: the floral fragrance, powdery and musky rose | DIOR CA

P.S. #predict "Burnt Hair" will smell like "Rose Kabuki" fragrance. Coming Q1 2023.

Silly shortys... don't you know the plan is written such that when a goal is achieved it remains achieved? And that Q3 (and the three preceeding quarters) is already in the books, Wednesday is just release day?

"Subject to any applicable clawback provisions, policies or other forfeiture terms, once a milestone is achieved, it is forever deemed achieved for determining the vesting of a tranche."

"To meet all 12 Market Capitalization Milestones, Tesla will have to add approximately $600 billion to its current market capitalization. The Board considers the Market Capitalization Milestones to be challenging hurdles."

Sadly though...
"Meeting more than 12 of the 16 Operational Milestones will not result in any additional vesting or other compensation to Mr. Musk under the CEO Performance Award."

 

[Stretch2727]

And I hope they do here if they need to. Granted it appears that Zach was talking about production and I think that can be pretty easily achieved barring any force majeure, but based on the FUD that came out regarding missed analyst's estimates regarding deliveries in the 3rd qtr, I think that getting the vehicles in the hands of paying customers in the 4th quarter is even more important.

Elon has been saying for a few years they were going to unwind the wave but it never really happened as deliveries numbers stayed pretty close to production numbers. I think they surprised the market doing it now as with more factories it should actually be easier to have deliveries match production as the average transit time is lower. Keep in mind "average" does not mean all the cars have lower transit times. There are a few countries/cases where the deliveries will always be in waves due to distance and lack of a local factory.

In the end it is about cost. If they have to spend a few percent of the cars value expediting just to deliver by quarter end it makes no sense even if it is the 4th quarter. Let it go into next quarter and take the savings. In the end, if they let the finished inventory build to a comfortable level that avoids expediting, delivery will again match production. If they are really serious about doing this it will take a few quarters of building the inventory to accomplish this. Keep in mind we should see further margin improvement as it happens.

If they reverse course this quarter and deliveries are way higher than production and they pull the inventory level down, then I really don't trust the reason they gave for the 3rd qtr delivery shortfall.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ha ha. Yahoo Finance just dropped Consensus EPS by anohter penny. Hey, let's get'er down to 99 pennies on the wall.
What a bunch a Wahooz.

View attachment 864829

It will probably 'magically adjust' to $1.11 in the next day or 2.