RobDickinson
Active Member
Eh its not good for his credibility (and income based on) to be wrong so I doubt he is doing it on purpose this is just how he sees it
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
There seems to be a lot of hate on Troy recently, but the problem is his Q1 and Q2 were on point and his Q3 was too high. His track record speaks for itself.
I really do hope his wrong, but his not an idiot. Also his numbers change a lot from now until the end of December. Check in with him in December and then we can go from there. The fact is TSLA bulls got Q3 wrong. Troy did too, but the bulls were also crapping on Troy back in Q3 as well. I don't see any apologies to Troy for that. Just more piling on in Q4.
He has to downgrade because he missed out on Tesla's run and may even sold at a loss when the price was 16 bucks.
Go back into 2021.....all of 2021......and all of his updates on each quarter. Not just his end of quarter number. For example, he was over 10% off in Q4 with one of his estimates that was just 2 weeks before we got Q4 numbers.
Troy is great at forecasting when there's clear set factors. He's not good at all on his predictions when Tesla is going through a production growth spurt. That's why he was consistently way more off than many, including me, were for all of 2021. He also is not good at making predictions when it comes to demand.
And guess what? Tesla has 3 factories in a heavy growth spurt.
As I've said a couple times now, the overwhelming narrative is Tesla has dried up demand for the production levels that they're at and Troy has been a huge part of creating that narrative. Q4 is going to settle the debate.
Absolutely. But when people get hurt badly, they look for scapegoats.
Gray Man
∇x E = -∂B(t)/∂t
The difference between investing and gambling....
Anyone happen to know what Fremont churned out in Q4 of 2020 and 2021?
RobDickinson
Active Member
I believe he is doing this on purpose , being very bearish in the first 2 months and helping the mischief makers in pushing the stock down for their gains.
Finally, he raises the estimates in the last month of the quarter and hopes to land close to the actual number . His patreons don’t remember the bearish projections of the first 2 months and only
Pay attention the final month’s projections. This way he is trying to play both sides of the coin .
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
How many times does this nonsense about Troys bias need to be debunked with, ya know, actual facts?
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
I think that is not the main fear. It is more like a cascade of defaulting companies if this one is busted. Think 2008-Housing in the US. Many chinese are WAY overleveraged. But i think the state will step in & not let this happen. But fear makes the markets volatile and volatility opens up...
teslamotorsclub.com
That's my last debunking, from Sept 20, 2021 when Artfull Dodger kept telling this SAME untrue narrative about how Troy was always bearish early, then bullish late.... it is factually untrue as I point out:
ME said:
AH you say, what about even MORE recently?
Q3 2022 his initial delivery estimate was 365k... his final estimate was lower, at 363k
ACTUAL deliveries? 343,830. He was high BOTH times, but higher early. Exact opposite of what you accuse him of.
Q2 2022 his initial delivery estimate was 273k...final estimate was lower, at 254k.
ACTUAL deliveries? 254,695. So he was high initially, then LOWER at end of Q, but nearly dead on accurate. Exact opposite of what you accuse him of.
Q1 2022 his initial delivery estimate was 329k... end of Q was lower, 309k
ACTUAL deliveries was 310k, So he was high initially, then LOWER at end of Q, but nearly dead on accurate. Exact opposite of what you accuse him of.
To sum up-- he's HIGHER at the start of a quarter in nearly EVERY quarter going back at least 3+ years, then LOWER at the end of the quarter. Exact opposite of what you accuse him of.
Perhaps most frustrating about people continually repeating this lie about Troys estimates is I don't even LIKE a lot about his methods and way of thinking on this stuff, yet the fact I prefer facts compels me to defend him anyway.
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No just deleted by Mod because of trademark violation? Copyright actually...
Mod: I did indeed say copyright. --ggr
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According to my Indonesian girlfriend, the $3200 price is only the downpayment, the car is more like $15-20k. Still a decent price. Cannot confirm, my bahasa Indonesia is sedikit...
Fwiw here in Canggu, traffic is so bad. And there is no way to fix it, they have built the entire village with too small roads and there are lots of rivers etc. Up in Ubud there really is no good way to fix it either. During the pandemic without the tourists it was acceptable, but now with all the Russians and Australians here it's getting crazy busy. Down where the G20 meeting is, the roads are so much better and there are some public charging stations.
There are very few electric cars in Bali, but their ride sharing apps have started having some electric bikes. Charging infrastructure is limited and worse, many houses have pretty bad electric systems. Even having an electric stove is considered a luxury, as most home don't have good enough power for it. Power outages are frequent, so some batteries could be useful, but they are also considered a luxury.
Then again, as they have such bad infrastructure, they could maybe make a leapfrog as they have less sunken costs.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
May be they are fund raising but not valued at $150B
And this is yet one more example of why the media has so little credibility these days.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I don't know if Neroden made a rash decision, if he did, the under-lying reasons were long-simmering and the result of Neroden not understanding what was driving demand for Tesla cars and how it would play out. He was convinced that Tesla's less than perfect service would crush demand (when in reality, Tesla was simply transitioning their service from that of a "kiss your butt" luxury brand to a better than typical mass-market service experience). This was a necessary and rational change to make the transition to high-volume, mass-market sales.
In short, he was a terrible analyst. Just plain wrong. I could never figure out why he had so many followers as he had a way of making wrong-headed thinking sound almost reasonable if you didn't look at it too hard. Apparently, he was selling TSLA and complaining about Tesla's execution right about the time I was finally ready to take a huge position without a concern of losing it. I had been waiting eight years for the risk/reward ratio to become that favorable. He saw it as a disaster waiting to happen (and he had convinced a lot of people he was right).
No fair, you changed it... I was looking right at your alert when I wrote the above, otherwise I wouldn't have pointed it out
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Does anyone know if the Model 3 RWD will be getting the IRA clean energy subsidy in the US next year? I know it has LFP cells but aren't those coming from China?
S,X and 3 P are all too expensive to qualify, and Y should qualify for it with the LR and P versions currently for sale, but I'm not sure about the 3 RWD.
S,X and 3 P are all too expensive to qualify, and Y should qualify for it with the LR and P versions currently for sale, but I'm not sure about the 3 RWD.
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