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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Iā€™ve said it before, everyone can have their say and Iā€™ve got no problem with that. None. What I do have a problem with is the incessant, repetitive, pile on of Elon is crazy, unhinged, he needs to be removed, BoD is sleeping at the wheel, etcā€¦

The very moment those people (and they know who they, but yes, Iā€™ll name them if needs be) stop behaving in a manner as atrocious that theyā€™re accusing Elon of is the moment Iā€™ll stop being critical of their behavior.

Those people are passing their opinions off as facts. Elon is ruining the brand. Everyone says this, says that. Itā€™s all poop. But even worse, they are quite literally saying it HUNDREDS of times. There is no need to repeat oneself day after day after day for weeks on end. Itā€™s as though they want to incite discourse.

We get it. Theyā€™re not happy and they donā€™t want to do anything about it but shout down at the rest of us who are focussed on the COMPANY and our investment in said COMPANY.

Additionally, Iā€™m the most sarcastic person on the planet. Read my posts as such and then you donā€™t have to misconstrue anything as a ā€˜threatā€™.
You forgot /s at the end of your post :)
 
Many people don't know the Tesla is the best product.
Every automakers chooses its marketing channels to find customers, often ads. Tesla did not, relying heavily, among other things, on Elon himself and his Twitter account.
In the last few weeks, Elon has polarized his own image politically.
Your second sentence is why this is a problem - or at least many of us perceive it is.

PS: before anyone ask me if I sold, I bought new shares yesterday, gambling on the fact that Tesla still will manage to solve these issues and continue to do what they do best.
Thatā€™s not true and a complete rewrite of history.

Tesla had to rely on solely the PRODUCT to sell itself because

A) only an EV that was compelling in EVERY aspect; range, refueling, CTO, performance, looks/appeal, etcā€¦ would sell against the status quo and a preconceived image that EVs were only glorified golf carts

B) there was no money for advertising for many, many, many years

And because the Roadster was a good proof of concept, but more importantly because Model S was off the charts compelling THAT caused Teslaā€™s customers to become the companyā€™s greatest advertising asset for the ensuing years.

Elon didnā€™t even have much presence on Twitter when this all started. In fact, Teslaā€™s FB account had more presence first. Indeed, every single executive and upper management person had to get on the phone in early 2013 and convince reservationists that they should finish the deal and buy the Model S.

Sure, Elon has a natural flare for promotion that he and everyone else discovered along the way; Roadster to Mars, Not-A-Flamethrower, Teslaquila, short-shorts et al, but if there was no incredible passion for humankind, no blow your mind product, no breathtaking sonic boom and video of boosters landing on a floating barge, Elon and Tesla would have gone the way of Nick and Faraday (and probably Battle soon enough), Trevor and Nikola, the way that Peter and Lucid are headed.

Elon has always had a polarized political image. Youā€™re just noticing it now because itā€™s no longer as firmly in line with yours.

And thatā€™s the truth.
 
Following Tesla these days means being dragged into US domestic politics, which at best are uninteresting for me, at worst outright depressing in both sides' constant vilification of each other. Judging from Twitter, Americans these days are either liberal left wokeists or gun loving right wing revolutionaries who want to destroy democracy. If there are any moderate voices out there, I struggle to hear them.

It is sad that Elon Musk has made people base their image of the Tesla brand on their political standing.
I am the first to agree that reality is more important than perception, i.e. that what a company actually does in terms of product quality etc. is most important for its long term brand, but the opposite is also possible. You can build a brand so well that people will believe the products are better than they really are but you can ruin a brand to such an extent that product quality no longer matters. I do not think we are there yet, but Elon Musk has definitely not been a positive force for the Tesla brand lately.
 
They are shooting for 5*2 weekday + 2*3 weekend shifts = 10 + 6 = 16 shifts. Their goal is 300 cars per shift, so 16*300 = 4800 cars per week, or 9600 cars for 2 weeks.

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The third paragraph; OMG can nobody on this planet resist the urge to interject their dickishness? Make do rather than spills the beans and then manage to suggest quite strongly that Tesla has balance sheet/sales/financial/company issues.
 
Let's put down the facts we know which are clear signs of demand problems with Tesla vehicles:

1. Tesla is expanding the Shanghai factory. This is always done when there are demand concerns.

2. Record November deliveries in China. Clearly this happens when demand drops.

3. Tesla is adding a 3rd shift at Giga Berlin on Dec 16. My schooling teaches me that when demand for a product drops, the best reaction is to add shifts and produce more of those vehicles that are not in demand.


OR we can listen to a guy named Troy make prognostications as if he is Nostradamus himself and everything that comes out of his Tweets is fact.
 
And this my friends is how you build an EKG pattern.

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Let's put down the facts we know which are clear signs of demand problems with Tesla vehicles:

1. Tesla is expanding the Shanghai factory. This is always done when there are demand concerns.

2. Record November deliveries in China. Clearly this happens when demand drops.

3. Tesla is adding a 3rd shift at Giga Berlin on Dec 16. My schooling teaches me that when demand for a product drops, the best reaction is to add shifts and produce more of those vehicles that are not in demand.


OR we can listen to a guy named Troy make prognostications as if he is Nostradamus himself and everything that comes out of his Tweets is fact.
Pin this post please!
All signals are pointing to an expansion of production. Do we really think Tesla wants bigger inventory?
 
Leo assumed Elon was selling the 2 last days because the stock price dropped hard while yesterday the rest of the market closed green. He said the board had fiduciary response to do whatā€™s best for investors so they should have arranged a stock buyback of Elon shares to prevent these unorganic share drops. He bought million of shares in the 400/350/300. He must be down -50% on billions. I am impressed a good night sleep can turn a portfolio around ;) Leo is now the greatest single diamond hand shareholder on the planet.
Yes--that adds to my concerns. What if Leo suddenly decides to cash in his chips? He's been a pretty...mercurial investor. And then there's the time machine thingy...
 
GS analcyst ā€˜23/24 earnings expectations.
Any idea how one can come up with $4.90 for ā€˜23 and $5.60 for ā€˜24 EPS?
Seems like a steaming lieā€¦ā€™22 will be over $4.90 I believe and Texas and Berlin are just beginning to be efficient/ profitable at scale.
When these numbers are slaughtered will it be a good thing? Surely no one will remember the garbage from now and bad actors
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On another note my ā€˜12 P85 hit 10 years a couple of weeks ago, just 103k since Iā€™ve been driving and racing my 3P- mostly for 3 years(hill climbs šŸ˜³šŸ„³) Almost 7 years of auto x in the S(canā€™t believe I was racing that monster!) still a great car and less than 10% loss in range and charge speed. Just about matches some of the new offerings in range and charge speeds šŸ¤£
 
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Coming up on the 155 that a couple months ago I kinda thought we would hit by Christmas. I got lots of laughs on that one and quotes of PE numbers etc. šŸ˜Š

But changing our mind on buying now. Might be a mistake but weā€™ll stick with the few long term shares we have and look at it again if it gets into the 70ā€™s.

At the time I said 155 nobody knew how off the rails Elon was and how ghosted the board was. Iā€™m sure when it gets under a hundred someone will send a board member an email and say ā€œdude, have you seen the stock price latelyā€. šŸ˜Š. Maybe theyā€™ll wake upā€¦but I doubt it. šŸ˜Š

You canā€™t go on a ride like this at Disney. šŸ˜”. If it hits 140 or maybe even 150 then hang on. šŸ˜±
 
Coming up on the 155 that a couple months ago I kinda thought we would hit by Christmas. I got lots of laughs on that one and quotes of PE numbers etc. šŸ˜Š

But changing our mind on buying now. Might be a mistake but weā€™ll stick with the few long term shares we have and look at it again if it gets into the 70ā€™s.

At the time I said 155 nobody knew how off the rails Elon was and how ghosted the board was. Iā€™m sure when it gets under a hundred someone will send a board member an email and say ā€œdude, have you seen the stock price latelyā€. šŸ˜Š. Maybe theyā€™ll wake upā€¦but I doubt it. šŸ˜Š

You canā€™t go on a ride like this at Disney. šŸ˜”. If it hits 140 or maybe even 150 then hang on. šŸ˜±
It takes a special kind of *ss to gloat when some people on this board are either stressed over the net worth they've lost and/or facing a margin call.

Love that you're repeating your PT of 70. Care to do the math behind that PT of 70? Oh wait, I already did it...and guess what? You don't know what you're talking about šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø

Edit: And please.....you can stop with the Nostradamus thing. There were others here, including myself, that have said 150 is a possibility for a couple quarters now because TSLA has been unable to get out of the falling trend line that it set all the way a year ago. The stock needed a big catalyst to be able to break out of that downtrend. We haven't gotten it and instead of have gotten increased FUD and Elon antics. So of course it's going to keep following the downtrend.
 
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Coming up on the 155 that a couple months ago I kinda thought we would hit by Christmas. I got lots of laughs on that one and quotes of PE numbers etc. šŸ˜Š

But changing our mind on buying now. Might be a mistake but weā€™ll stick with the few long term shares we have and look at it again if it gets into the 70ā€™s.

At the time I said 155 nobody knew how off the rails Elon was and how ghosted the board was. Iā€™m sure when it gets under a hundred someone will send a board member an email and say ā€œdude, have you seen the stock price latelyā€. šŸ˜Š. Maybe theyā€™ll wake upā€¦but I doubt it. šŸ˜Š

You canā€™t go on a ride like this at Disney. šŸ˜”. If it hits 140 or maybe even 150 then hang on. šŸ˜±
I'm glad you're being a bit more realistic, but why aim so high? 70 seems a bit rich to me - my buy target is at a more healthy $10.
Your warning for the impending freefall is also very welcome, I cant thank you enough. Please come back here any time you have more valuable insights to add. :rolleyes:
 
I thought I was clear but to erase any doubt, if it was happening, (which means I don't know for sure that it is), expecting immediate reflection of it in sales considering the existing backlog does not seem reasonable. I don't know what Elon will do on a daily basis so I can't predict how his unknown future behavior might influence demand at some point in the future. All we do know is some non zero number of customers have been turned off to the brand because of his actions, I don't know if it's enough to show up in sales at some point.
Ok, so no time frame. Weā€™re just going to let it blow in the wind for all time until you think thereā€™s enough evidence in 1, 5, 10, years to say, I told you what he said on that platform was going to cause a demand issue.

This is what Iā€™m going to do; another demand share for the non-zero comment and then a second demand share added to the tally in expectation of your future claim, whenever.