Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

Damn the Macro's continue to pick on TSLA

 

[aubreymcfato]

That’s not true and a complete rewrite of history.

Tesla had to rely on solely the PRODUCT to sell itself because

A) only an EV that was compelling in EVERY aspect; range, refueling, CTO, performance, looks/appeal, etc… would sell against the status quo and a preconceived image that EVs were only glorified golf carts

B) there was no money for advertising for many, many, many years

And because the Roadster was a good proof of concept, but more importantly because Model S was off the charts compelling THAT caused Tesla’s customers to become the company’s greatest advertising asset for the ensuing years.

Elon didn’t even have much presence on Twitter when this all started. In fact, Tesla’s FB account had more presence first. Indeed, every single executive and upper management person had to get on the phone in early 2013 and convince reservationists that they should finish the deal and buy the Model S.

Sure, Elon has a natural flare for promotion that he and everyone else discovered along the way; Roadster to Mars, Not-A-Flamethrower, Teslaquila, short-shorts et al, but if there was no incredible passion for humankind, no blow your mind product, no breathtaking sonic boom and video of boosters landing on a floating barge, Elon and Tesla would have gone the way of Nick and Faraday (and probably Battle soon enough), Trevor and Nikola, the way that Peter and Lucid are headed.

Elon has always had a polarized political image. You’re just noticing it now because it’s no longer as firmly in line with yours.

And that’s the truth.

My post was incomplete, I apologize.
I agree with point A and B. Tesla had to rely mainly on the product.
And people able to look at the product now and tomorrow will evaluate Tesla cars based on that, which is good, as Tesla is still a superior product.

But here's the thing: the product "is spoken" about. Yes, there is direct word-of-mouth (many of you showed your Tesla to thousands of people, collectively), but there is also indirect word-of-mouth, namely... media. Official media like car magazines, unofficial media like Youtubers or social media influencers. In this second phase of Tesla - 2016-now, Elon social media and media presence has been enormous. Not always positive (pedotweet, ecc.) but mainly so, at least up until 2020.
Yes, media FUD started years ago, and created a settled narrative in many people about Elon as the worst billionaire alive.

My humble opinion, which you probably don't share, is that this was a tiny minority narrative, but it's increasing day by day now. Internationally.
I don't agree that Elon was really polarized politically, because living in Europe we don't have the same definition to left and right. He was a controversial billionaire with some liberal opinions and some conservative ones. We could find tweets for both in the past.
Above all, he was a maverick billionaire with a huge Twitter following, expressing his own opinion (which I personally often didn't agree with, and many of us were vocal at the time too).

Right now, he is the OWNER of Twitter, at the center of The Current Thing itself, waging war to the global "Woke" and all the Media all by himself, touching a thousand delicate subjects all at once with the grace of a enraged elephant: Trump deplatforming, COVID, Ukraine war (allegedly Twitter disconnected users from Ukraine yesterday, nobody knows if is a mistake or something else).
If you can't see the difference in accountability and responsibility, and how hated he is now compared to before, I don't know what to say.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I look forward to the day that Curt cues up the polka band.
At about the same time TT07 calls us all losers and leaves the board for a few more years.
I am not going to feed the trolls. My silence is not in agreement.
I will wait, although...

 

[Prunesquallor]

A

replying to self : and the rest of the HODLers on TMC:
another key difference between now and 2017-2020 FUD is there are many You tubers who are creating FUD... possibly unwittingly ...

• questioning Elons every move
• speculating about demand
• speculating about buybacks
• speculating about succession plan
• ignoring facts for the most part
• perpetuating the Twitter FUD

in 2017-2020 I only had to refute the MSM FUD, now we have so called TSLA Investors very vocally on You Tube spreading the FUD also

Many of these You tubers were a light in the darkness a few years ago , however ; many have become the full on FUDsters themselves

If any go patreon, I look on them with great suspicion. They have opened a portal for their content to be influenced.

 

[replicant]

I look forward to the day that Curt cues up the polka band.
At about the same time TT07 calls us all losers and leaves the board for a few more years.
I am not going to feed the trolls. My silence is not in agreement.
I will wait, although...
View attachment 884923

Once Elon finally saves our civilization by having people remove pronouns from their bios, we'll have about 17823 days of polka music to listen to. That should be enough market closings to see TSLA reach its early-2022 price.

 

[unk45]

Every single major tech stock save for Apple and IBM and every automotive stock is at a two year low. TSLA has been tightly coupled to the macros since Q4 2020 up until about six weeks ago.

Are we certain that was solely due to one person? What about other factors? The apparent onslaught of short and distort nonsense that seems to have initiated after the Q3 P&D came out? The trolls and bots showing up all over TSLA online retail investment communities? The “disappointing” Q3 earnings report? China demand and COVID fears? Naked short selling, spoofing, capping and other hedge fund and market maker shenanigans? Elon selling finally having a measurable impact that lasted longer than a couple trading days? The declining overall global sales of cars and trucks in Q3? Continued Fed hawkishness?

What about the aggressive AMZN drop since Nov 1st that preceded the TSLA drop by a few trading days and almost exactly correlates (after normalizing variability being higher for TSLA than AMZN) with the TSLA movement in Nov and Dec? These two have been tightly correlated all year and have by far the most derivatives trading activity in the history of the stock market, which means any suspicions of market maker manipulation and retail investor manipulation is especially heightened when both have such similar activity.

What analysis has anyone done to actually tease out these various factors and estimate the relative importance? For all the complaining and fear I have seen no one putting out rigorous breakdowns. I’m pretty sure ascribing causes to short term stock moves is nearly impossible, as evidenced most strongly by the notable dearth of options trading billionaires exploiting this ability to rapidly gain wealth.

Precisely. A former colleague of mine had a saying "you have a keenly developed sense of the obvious" when he gave compliments. The AMZN v TSLA comparison qualifies. Thank you very much!

 

[elasalle]

got me 19 shares with some left over change ( ~ 3K) in IRA

piggy bank shares to leaps .. cut # of stocks to half - if I convert back to shares.
All jan 24 CC's sold at 70-80% profit already - but can't do any good shuffelling to close.

Personal account, I need SP to stay above 150 ... or I'll need to start throwing babies with the bath water

 

[Tachyon]

My prediction for today
JPow does a .50 increase and says he will do everything possible to bring inflation down and more pain is ahead
Market gets elated then confused followed by spooked
Shoots itself in the foot and TSLA drops hard to 145
And the longs keep getting water boarded .
/s

 

[larmor]

Market 'sentiment' and algorithmic trading can only be sustained for so long-- it is a business which does not make a product. Tesla is a business making cars, batteries and solar. Questions to be asked to the board is what is the status of the Buffalo GF? Tesla will need multiple sites for battery production to meet their goals.
What is happening with solar roof and OEM install by builders?
What is the status of Semi production?
Are there any results from actual use of the Semi?
What is the status of FSD beta roll out?

Elon can be Elon, but there are alot of people working at Tesla who are doing these things and one man is not solely responsible for producing each car, battery, solar tile, FSD line of code, and Semi tractor trailer (! imagine 10 years ago if there was even one on the drawing board/powerpoint deck).

 

[thx1139]

Yes, media FUD started years ago, and created a settled narrative in many people about Elon as the worst billionaire alive.

Have to disagree with this. Trump, Koch Brothers, Bezos and other were considered worse. Not sure about that any more.

 

[elasalle]

technoking is like kingTslaQ now
if I was tslaQ, I would be in love with Elon by now the gift that keeps on giving

+not selling, but venting

 

[SOULPEDL]

New Semi video - short clips.

Tesla posts video of Semi electric truck’s durability testing

Tesla has started the electric Semi truck deliveries, with the first batch going to PepsiCo. However, before getting to that stage, the company vigorously tested the truck. It has released a video where the Semi was [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

"CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Twitter that the Semi has an efficiency of 1.7 kWh, putting the battery pack at roughly 900 kWh capacity."

This is the part where we ask, so how big is the battery pack? Elusive still on 4680s. It's like those problems with 5 equations but has 10 unknowns. Can't wait for the actual reveal on this tech.

 

[Discoducky]

Looks like all three major indexes are heading up...so ya know...we should as well?

I'm watching SPY after FOMC today it should head up and attempt to break out of bear territory around >$409.

I think the bears know this and are hiding in TSLA as their last bastion.

 

[geometro]

I fully expect to see a Form 4 (or two) this evening..... I won't be happy to see them, but that is my expectation.

 

[Prunesquallor]

JB seems to be doing well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603058880925552641

 

[StealthP3D]

Something that took me a long time to understand is this:
The current stock price is NOT the value of the stock. Its the mid point of buyers and sellers who are happy to buy/sell TODAY. That may be a very,m very small sliver of the total stock holding. Teslas daily volume, as a percentage of total stock, is not massive.
I think my Tesla shares are worth $300-400 each. If you want to buy mine, its going to cost you that, at least.
The fact that some people (with weak conviction) will sell some today at $150, to other who will buy at $150 does not change my view. There are a LOT of people like me (and people like ellison & ron baron etc who have even higher goals I'm sure).

That is absolutely how the share price moves and it's baffling how that flies over the head of what I'm going to estimate is more than 50% of retail investors. Share prices are very ethereal and can turn on a dime with no fundamental movement in the value of the company. This is what makes a market and putting significant credibility into the share price is what ruins investors performance. Because it holds the analyses of other investors above your own and that's not going to end well for people who come under that spell.

Attacks on share price, as are happening right now with TSLA, are designed to shake the confidence of investors and lower the share price enough that stop losses and margin limits are hit, creating a cascade of selling that continues to reinforce the negative narrative. Manipulators know how to manipulate following time proven rules. I've always said the share price of a strong company can go both higher than your wildest dreams and lower than you ever thought was possible. This is just how it works and the mechanism for that is described well by combining Cliff's accurate observation above about what the share price actually represents with a loss of confidence instilled by false narratives.

This is possible because investors are irrationally fearful to their own detriment (just as they are irrationally bullish during good times). Fear causes investors to focus on things that don't matter, instead of things that do, like the company's positioning in their core business, the trends of volumes and margins, production capacity and future catalysts. All of these things are positive and yet I see very little discussion of them. Somehow the manipulators have convinced TSLA investors to talk only of things that are not real, things like demand problems, Elon losing his mind and the value of the company cratering.

It's truly sad how easily even many of the so called "smart" people right here are guided right down these rabbit holes. It would blow my mind if I hadn't seen it a hundred times before. I want people to save these unwise posts for when times are good. You will find the very vocal people who are all doom and gloom now will be nowhere to be found when we are hitting new all-time highs.

 

[StealthP3D]

Something that took me a long time to understand is this:
The current stock price is NOT the value of the stock. Its the mid point of buyers and sellers who are happy to buy/sell TODAY. That may be a very,m very small sliver of the total stock holding. Teslas daily volume, as a percentage of total stock, is not massive.
I think my Tesla shares are worth $300-400 each. If you want to buy mine, its going to cost you that, at least.
The fact that some people (with weak conviction) will sell some today at $150, to other who will buy at $150 does not change my view. There are a LOT of people like me (and people like ellison & ron baron etc who have even higher goals I'm sure).

That is absolutely how the share price moves and it's baffling how that flies over the head of what I'm going to estimate is more than 50% of retail investors. Share prices are very ethereal and can turn on a dime with no fundamental movement in the value of the company. This is what makes a market and putting significant credibility into the share price is what ruins investors performance. Because it holds the analyses of other investors above your own and that's not going to end well for people who come under that spell.

Attacks on share price, as are happening right now with TSLA, are designed to shake the confidence of investors and lower the share price enough that stop losses and margin limits are hit, creating a cascade of selling that continues to reinforce the negative narrative. Manipulators know how to manipulate following time proven rules. I've always said the share price of a strong company can go both higher than your wildest dreams and lower than you ever thought was possible. This is just how it works and the mechanism for that is described well by combining Cliff's accurate observation above about what the share price actually represents with a loss of confidence instilled by false narratives.

This is possible because investors are irrationally fearful to their own detriment (just as they are irrationally bullish during good times). Fear causes investors to focus on things that don't matter, instead of things that do, like the company's positioning in their core business, the trends of volumes and margins, production capacity and future catalysts. All of these things are positive and yet I see very little discussion of them. Somehow the manipulators have convinced TSLA investors to talk only of things that are not real, things like demand problems, Elon losing his mind and the value of the company cratering.

It's truly sad how easily even many of the so called "smart" people right here are guided right down these rabbit holes. It would blow my mind if I hadn't seen it a hundred times before. I want people to save these unwise posts for when times are good. You will find the very vocal people who are all doom and gloom now will be nowhere to be found when we are hitting new all-time highs.

 

[thx1139]

Every single major tech stock save for Apple and IBM and every automotive stock is at a two year low. TSLA has been tightly coupled to the macros since Q4 2020 up until about six weeks ago.

Are we certain that was solely due to one person? What about other factors? The apparent onslaught of short and distort nonsense that seems to have initiated after the Q3 P&D came out? The trolls and bots showing up all over TSLA online retail investment communities? The “disappointing” Q3 earnings report? China demand and COVID fears? Naked short selling, spoofing, capping and other hedge fund and market maker shenanigans? Elon selling finally having a measurable impact that lasted longer than a couple trading days? The declining overall global sales of cars and trucks in Q3? Continued Fed hawkishness?

What about the aggressive AMZN drop since Nov 1st that preceded the TSLA drop by a few trading days and almost exactly correlates (after normalizing variability being higher for TSLA than AMZN) with the TSLA movement in Nov and Dec? These two have been tightly correlated all year and have by far the most derivatives trading activity in the history of the stock market, which means any suspicions of market maker manipulation and retail investor manipulation is especially heightened when both have such similar activity.

What analysis has anyone done to actually tease out these various factors and estimate the relative importance? For all the complaining and fear I have seen no one putting out rigorous breakdowns. I’m pretty sure ascribing causes to short term stock moves is nearly impossible, as evidenced most strongly by the notable dearth of options trading billionaires exploiting this ability to rapidly gain wealth.

Dont act like that one person is just some guy who works for Tesla and is out on Twitter saying nonsense.

Elon has not only alienated just progressives he has alienated a lot of Tesla supporters that used to be out in places like Twitter countering FUD. Lots of them myself included are on Twitter pushing back at Elon and his new best friends. You also see a lot of them embarrassing themselves praising every move Elon makes with Twitter as the best thing since sliced bread. You have people in podcasts dedicated to Tesla avoiding doing anything but apologizing for Elon antics and say that recent polls of 1000s of people that show sentiment towards Tesla has dropped massively are poor polls.

I am now taking a timeout from Twitter by the way because of Elon.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Picked up a few more shared today. Not much dry powder.

 

[Usain]

He's gaining 100,000 followers every day!

Is that true? If so, how long does it last?

He currently sits at 121,200,000 followers. It is indeed a huge advertising advantage to be able to tell that many people about the latest on Tesla.

Incidentally, the number two "most-followed" on Twitter is still Obama at 133,500,000 followers. If Elon keeps gaining 100,000 per day, he would become the most-followed in only 123 days. Any other company would kill to have a megaphone like that.

Also incidentally, I just picked up a few more chairs at $157.