Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

I think there's a concerted campaign ongoing to destroy retail TSLA

This.

Applies to the whole of the market to some degree. People's pensions etc. - untold destruction and pain for 100s of millions of people across the globe caused by the crooks of wall street. Led by high interest rates - thinking that If the rich have less than the the poor will somehow have more...

 

[mach-edriver]

This.

Applies to the whole of the market to some degree. People's pensions etc. - untold destruction and pain for 100s of millions of people across the globe caused by the crooks of wall street. Led by high interest rates - thinking that If the rich have less than the the poor will somehow have more...

This?? This kind of populist conspiracy-spinning must mark some kind of a bottom.

OK… I’m in! Sold Jan 27 100$ puts at $4.5, 110$ p @$6.8.

Merry Xmas!

 

[Ogre]

If 25 units per day is correct, we would be at 1500 units for the Q when counting 60 working days.
1500 units at 3 MWh (Twitter guy said 4?) is 4.5 for the Q. 10 could maybe be possible for this year. 20 isn’t like you said.

This sounds much more reasonable. That means we’d be a little under 50% of rated capacity after the first year of operations which is much more typical I think. I know it’s not the same, but look at Giga Texas for example.

Musk often shoots for the moon, misses the timeline but exceeds the target in the end.

 

[Paracelsus]

If mid-120’s level of support on the 5-year chart is the bottom - which we hit yesterday - then we would either need to end the week trading at that point so that it is preserved on the longer charts (the longer charts only use the close of trading on Friday), or we would need to retest it again later if we had a share price spike today simply because of last night’s interview, etc.. Personally I find it encouraging that this level of support is holding and that it could be in our rear view mirror sooner as a result. Let’s close here and then we can coil the spring tighter for a faster ride back up to 200 and above

 

[SebastienBonny]

Anyone thinks some Giga news will hit after hours?
There was a rumour in the beginning of this week.

 

[SebastienBonny]

This sounds much more reasonable. That means we’d be a little under 50% of rated capacity after the first year of operations which is much more typical I think. I know it’s not the same, but look at Giga Texas for example.

Musk often shoots for the moon, misses the timeline but exceeds the target in the end.

I would sign for that scenario. 20GWh (- 30 GWh) should be easy for 23 to be at full capacity in 24.

 

[Buckminster]

Anyone thinks some Giga news will hit after hours?
There was a rumour in the beginning of this week.

I prefer my own conspiracy theory timeline:

I'm glad you asked. My optimist version.

Radar coming mid Jan I think is the rumour?
Add cameras and new FSD chip to make H/W 4.0?
Could this get announced at Giga Mexico unveil?
Could they also reveal $25k car to be built in Mexico?

 

[TrendTrader007]

we are at or close to an inflection point and as far as i am concerned, TSLA deserves to be held for at least another full year or so before considering any sale of stock to realize full potential to upside. one could still trade rallies but bigger risk in my mind is acting on recency and trying to sell on any rally, which, while initially successful, could fail in spectacular fashion once a serious rally unfolds
bottom line: i have never been more bullish on TSLA

 

[ZsoZso]

TSLA is also getting very close to be eligible for inclusion into the Dow Jones index

 

[TrendTrader007]

Chicken Genius who correctly predicted $150 is now calling for $60 TSLA
this guy has a far better record than me (although i still am far wealthier despite TSLA flash crash of 14 months) so i will not bet against him
but i really have a hard time seeing that -85% drop off $414
i guess it could happen
i have been wrong numerous times before
i am taking my chances, doing nothing, staying super long TSLA despite all doomsday warnings
if Chicken is right, at least it will be fun to see all my hard earned profits disappear into nothingness

 

[Ogre]

Yes, but what "poor performance" has Tesla demonstrated to justify the drop to $12X? Tesla's execution seems completely disconnected from SP, so why does a great quarter reconnect them? Feels like even if Q4 is a great quarter, afterwards the stock likely gets walked down again, just like this week? Not trying to be overly negative, rather understand if it's possible to take control away from the shortz in this macro environment? At this point it feels they are beyond sensible and are purposely punishing TSLA out of spite like a schoolyard bully...

We haven’t had a great quarter in 2022. Lots of good stuff in the background, several decent quarters, a disappointing shutdown, some demand issues which Musk acknowledged. That plus an increasingly bad macro environment, Tesla’s just been slightly off all year. Add in the Twitter weirdness and in the Musk sales which beat the stock down a bit more and we’re just in a weird place.

We need a great quarter or two to remind people of what Tesla is about. Not a good quarter. Not “Tesla is executing well but…”. Not “Tesla is fine, interest rates are screwing everyone up…” We need a great quarter.

Alternatively, some time to breath, just a few good quarters in a row with no fire drills. (No COVID stoppages, no fed hikes, no new wars, no Musk sales…)

 

[Quesder]

Look at the NIO SP $10.9 and TSLA $124
Now we can say 124 is more than 10 times better than 10.9

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'd love to see that, but I have a suspicion it will go more like this:

We get a huge Q4 beat on deliveries and Megapack sales resulting in earnings way above expected, BUT the stock drops down to $80 because Elon gives a hint of possible hard times in 2023 due to recession on the earnings call. Because hey, we are TSLA and that's just our lot in life.

I don't think it can be stated enough how historic the landslide in TSLA stock has been. Yes other stocks have had big drops in the past, even companies that went on to be giants (Amazon/Apple), I've never seen an instance where a megacap stock went down 60% in the same time span that the macro's were down 4-6%....based on no real data. The biggest drops we've seen in recent history were all associated with abrupt earnings/guidance changes or huge misses on earnings/guidance. Tesla has had neither.

Apple during it's massive drop in 2008-2009 followed the macros. Same with Amazon. This however, it not one of those cases. It's a stock being specifically targeted with massive puts positions naked shorting.

If Tesla's P/D and Earnings come in meh then yeah, I can see another leg down. But there's so much built up selling pressure at this point that a huge surprise could lead to a massive rally. If Tesla comes out with something like 470k deliveries and follows that up with EPS of 1.8 (without including deferred FSD revenue), stable margins, improving operating margins, and gives bullish guidance...I could honestly see the stock at $220-250 by end of Jan.

Now I think that rally would be sold off as the macro's continue their slide into bottoming in Q1, but I think the bottom would be in for TSLA, regardless of what the macro's do at that point.

 

[ShareLofty]

If that 100k China December number is correct, what number should we expect from the last two weekly insurance registration reports of the year?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If that 100k China December number is correct, what number should we expect from the last two weekly insurance registration reports of the year?

This upcoming one would have to be something like 20+ and then for the following week it wouldn't matter, we'd already have the P/D numbers. But likely something like 25-30k

Btw, that 100k number can't possibly be just local deliveries, there's gotta be some exports in there. But I think it would be rather low, like 20-25k. So still 80k+ deliveries.

 

[Thekiwi]

WUWAs latest update:

“23 Dec 2022
At the end of the year, it seemed that the production of Tesla's Shanghai factory was all put into export. On December 22, I saw trucks carrying Tesla passing by on the road near the factory. I noticed that AU was written on the sign posted on the window. It was obviously Tesla destined for Australia. It seems that the factory site is not as busy as last week, which may be the performance of the production reduction. A friend asked why we saw the continuous gathering of terminals for export to Tesla since the production reduction was 30%. In fact, we can understand as long as we put the production reduction on the local production capacity in China. In short, the local production in China has almost stopped. Recently, China's sudden opening up and zero clearing policy has had a serious impact on all walks of life in China. We will not extend it here.”

 

[30seconds]

Shockingly, Musk promising to do nothing does not prompt a big run in the stock.

In spite of the perception many have, Musk’s sales don’t have a long term effect on the stock price.

Musk’s sales can be brutal short term, but long term they are just noise. Institutional investors know this. It’s a huge non-event.

Or no one believes him based on his previous words and actions

 

[carterm2]

Close at $123.45?

 

[geometro]

I’ve been looking for silver linings, and I can only come up with the following:

1) best cars on the road (despite the advent of EVs from other mfrs, I question their long term commitment)
2) vertical integration is still a beautiful thing (Ie, I hate dealerships)
3) the collective knowledge of tesla employees on hardware / software integration is unique and a competitive advantage
4) Elon does best under pressure… maybe this situation will lead to more focus.

Glad I kept my day job… retirement and travels will have to wait longer.

 

[Max Plaid]

Model 3 & Y inventory falling fast in the US... (X & Y inventory rose a bit):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606386994216636424