Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FSDtester#1]

While the current stock price and price action seems abysmal, just remember a few years ago prior to the 2 stock splits, when TSLA was trading around 300 and seemed stuck there, the current price would be ~1,845!

How things have changed eh?

Look at the freaking volume again today... I thought the interns were in charge this week. Geesh!

 

[Xd85]

125M shares today on pace for >200M daily volume. "retail" Margin call? is it witching? Theories?

 

[insaneoctane]

So yesterday after-hours had a spike up on Elon's promise not to sell any more shares during the next year or two.
However, it did not survive the main trading day and we dipped even lower than yesterday.
Seems like his statements regarding stock sales are treated by the market like the boy who cried wolf one too many times...

Positive statements ignored...but do you think that a negative statement would go unnoticed?

 

[Max Plaid]

So yesterday after-hours had a spike up on Elon's promise not to sell any more shares during the next year or two.
However, it did not survive the main trading day and we dipped even lower than yesterday.
Seems like his statements regarding stock sales are treated by the market like the boy who cried wolf one too many times...

Lots of forced share-selling from early-signed DITM puts and margin calls is driving much of this daily, we need a few up/flat days to stem the bleeding

TSLA was the retail favourite recent years, many of those folks got rich quick, tried to get richer quicker, used maximum margins, lots of leverage. The sudden and spectacular drop since October mean most couldn't exit their put-spreads, their LEAPS all went to zero, and now the wolves are hunting them

Even I got early-assigned -p180's this week, fortunately I don't use margin, so although it's annoying, it's no big deal. I've never been early-assigned before, regardless of the strike or expiry, I think there's a concerted campaign ongoing to destroy retail TSLA

 

[Ogre]

So yesterday after-hours had a spike up on Elon's promise not to sell any more shares during the next year or two.
However, it did not survive the main trading day and we dipped even lower than yesterday.
Seems like his statements regarding stock sales are treated by the market like the boy who cried wolf one too many times...

Shockingly, Musk promising to do nothing does not prompt a big run in the stock.

In spite of the perception many have, Musk’s sales don’t have a long term effect on the stock price.

Musk’s sales can be brutal short term, but long term they are just noise. Institutional investors know this. It’s a huge non-event.

 

[insaneoctane]

I think a truly spectacular delivery number followed up a huge earnings beat would force the issue and cause a strong, but brief rally. Maybe up to like 160 and then the stock drifts back to the 130’s/140’s while the rest of the market bottoms.

It’s not about the incoming data causing some huge rally and it’s upwards and onwards, more like will cause a big relief rally good for a 20-30% move and then fade, but that it would set 120 as the bottom

I wouldn't dare try to time such movements, even though there is certainly money to be made here. I would worry that I would mis-time the eventual launch back to reality and find myself on the side lines. But, if I was orchestrating the whole thing, I can't imagine how much money they will make before the overall macro recovers enough and they finally lose control of this lucrative game.

 

[Stormy24]

125M shares today on pace for >200M daily volume. "retail" Margin call? is it witching? Theories?

AI was not turned off after Xmas party?

 

[Curt Renz]

125M shares today on pace for >200M daily volume. "retail" Margin call? is it witching? Theories?

Indeed, margin calls remain likely culprits, And it is a weekly options expiration day (Triple Witching was last week). Expiring TSLA put and call options both show large interest and trading volume at the $125 strike, so big option writers may want the share price to close near there.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Indeed, margin calls remain likely culprits, And it is a weekly options expiration day (Triple Witching was last week). Expiring TSLA put and call options both show large interest at the $125 strike, so big option writers may want the share price to close near there.

Just once, could you lie to all of us and say it will likely close at $214.63?

/s

 

[WarpedOne]

So, where exactly is the line in the sand?
Cash on hand divided by total float (minus elon&co. or not)
Are shorts dumb enough to force elon to go private?
Yes.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606350686735798277

 

[JRP3]

Look at the freaking volume again today... I thought the interns were in charge this week. Geesh!

125M shares today on pace for >200M daily volume. "retail" Margin call? is it witching? Theories?

As the price keeps dropping the number of shares traded should go up to some degree. It's a 2 for 1 sale compared to a few months ago.

 

[SebastienBonny]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606350686735798277

If I’m correct we’re at 4 for Q1, Q2 and Q3.
Would mean 16 in Q4. Is that possible? Q3 was 2.1.

 

[GrandEnigma]

As the price keeps dropping the number of shares traded should go up to some degree. It's a 2 for 1 sale compared to a few months ago.

This, my monthly 401k contribution went from a fractional share of TSLA to a bit over a dozen shares currently.

 

[Ogre]

I’m not going to predict a good 4th quarter. I’ve learned better.

I am getting very anxious to see what Tesla Energy looks like this quarter though. Feels like if we do have a really good 4th Q, Tesla Energy will be a significant part of that. If not this quarter, then the following.

And Tesla Energy is nearly recession proof. We knew Tesla Energy had the potential to overtake auto, but perhaps it’s coming quicker than we imagined? They sort of meet in the middle as auto struggles a bit and Energy surges.

(Not a prediction, just… speculation)

 

[Buckminster]

Can Tesla reduce costs almost in-line with prices? Berlin and Austin will make more cost effective vehicles. "Highland" M3s will be also.

Temporary $7500 reduction, 1000 miles free supercharging, IRA, 30 days free autopilot all having an affect.

For end of year, Tesla are practically telling buyers to turn up with a wedge of cash and take it away. Minimizing sales people's time / sale is crucial.

10,000 miles supercharging... I placed this in a new thread entitled Tesla Demand. Mod closed thread and moved it here as we should be talking about demand here - fair enough. See following:

$7,500 incentive offered by Tesla 2 days ago generates immediate drop in available inventory.
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credit of $7,500 arrives Jan 1st.
Is this a signal on the demand the IRA will bring?

View attachment 888204

I think that the majority of us can agree we don't have a demand problem. We have a situation where Tesla will at some point most likely need to reduce prices further (in addition to IRA) in the light of increasing production. Offsetting margin reductions will come from reduced costs. @The Accountant and others will be modelling this in detail.

Should prices come down 2% per quarter and costs come down 1% per quarter (for next 2 years)? Is it worth a poll?

Highland costs will improve by ~5% and initially increase price by ~5% if Tesla chooses to.

 

[EQC_]

If I’m correct we’re at 4 for Q1, Q2 and Q3.
Would mean 16 in Q4. Is that possible? Q3 was 2.1.

20GWh is probably the annual run-rate target by the end of Q4 2022.

So, if that run rate was achieved at the beginning of Q4, and continued throughout, we'd be looking at 5GWh for the quarter. If they achieve the 20GWh annual run rate by the end of the quarter, then there would be ramping up during the quarter, so the true Q4 total would be somewhere between the Q3 value (2.1GWh) and the 5GWh ending run rate.

Based on your numbers, the ramp seems to be pretty quick -- Q3 equaled Q1+Q2 combined. Q3's rate continued for 12 months would already be 8.4GWh per year...well on their way to the initial 20GWh annual run rate target, and the later 40GWh annual target for the Lathrop megapack factory.

 

[MABMAB]

Someone should start a public spreadsheet.
date
rumor
source here
source other
date of proof
valid

my guess is much more invalid.

 

[Ogre]

If I’m correct we’re at 4 for Q1, Q2 and Q3.
Would mean 16 in Q4. Is that possible? Q3 was 2.1.

Seems unlikely they would deliver 16 GWH in Q4 when capacity is supposed to be 40 GWh/ year. So “full capacity” is 10GWh, 8GWh would be a huge win and anything better would suggest huge things for 2023. Coming into 2023 running at 80% of rated capacity after just one year would be fantastic.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Seems unlikely they would deliver 16 GWH in Q4 when capacity is supposed to be 40 GWh/ year. So “full capacity” is 10GWh, 8GWh would be a huge win and anything better would suggest huge things for 2023. Coming into 2023 running at 80% of rated capacity after just one year would be fantastic.

If 25 units per day is correct, we would be at 1500 units for the Q when counting 60 working days.
1500 units at 3 MWh (Twitter guy said 4?) is 4.5 for the Q. 10 could maybe be possible for this year. 20 isn’t like you said.