Not sure when I’d expect to see large numbers of <$80k Cybertrucks when a Model Y LR is $66k.
Maybe <$80k is doable with single motor variants, but even then it feels like a stretch considering pricing across the lineup. People seem to expect the tri and quad motors to run $100k+.
Tesla knows it's not in the business of selling pickups costing in excess of six figures so the people who expect that are simply not good at parsing basic information. They are wrong.
What we don't know is how the production costs of the stainless steel exoskeleton will compare to that of traditional painted steel and aluminum cars that require zinc dunk tanks and multi-coat painting. All indications are that the unique construction of the Cybertruck represents some real cost savings, enough to offset the higher cost of stainless steel vs. carbon steel chassis.
Here's my seat of the pants analysis for the manufacturing costs of Cybertruck relative to a truck with the same capabilities but made using traditional automotive manufacturing/construction technology:
60% chance it's significantly less (with a 20% chance it's dramatically less)
30% chance it's similar
10% chance it's significantly more
note: This is not a comparison of actual release prices vs. reveal prices, it's about whether the stainless steel exoskelton will save significant money over carbon steel and paint. Savings from front and rear gigacastings would be in addition to any savings of the stainless steel body that doesn't need to be painted and can have less complicated welding lines since it's built using fewer parts. This means that even if the stainless construction has no cost savings, the trucks could still be very cost-competitive due to other efficiencies we already expect. The economics of Cybertruck would be favorable even in the scenario of no significant cost savings because the stainless steel makes the truck more desirable due to it being more durable in that it's resistant to dents and corrosion and has no paint to scratch.
By this point in time Tesla has a very good idea how the cost to manufacture is shaping up so I've been looking for clues from them but they have been pretty mum lately. The last time we had a good clue was during the height of raw materials price increases when Elon took the opportunity to lower expectations on sticking strictly to the announced release pricing. This is the primary reason I only gave a 20% chance of prices being dramatically lower vs. traditional construction. We really don't know whether Elon lowered price expectations solely due to skyrocketing raw materials costs or if it was also due to newly discovered production challenges and general increases in things like labor.
My sense is that with recent reductions in raw material costs, Tesla pricing on the Cybertruck will not be as dramatically higher as all the naysayers propose. I do think the entry-level single motor variant will not exist, at least not for many years. That would make the entry level variant a dual motor version which was announced at only $49K but which will likely be somewhere between $55K-$60K. But it will have significantly more functionality than originally announced due to Elon's inability to resist making it more awesome than it already was.
I think the pricing of the top of the line, quad motor, 500-mile version will stay under $100K and, even if it were $90K-$95K, it would have mind-blowing demand for such a high price point. The "Tesla stretch" would be on full display as people emptied their savings for the chance to own such a modern marvel. And not just Tesla fan boys, but regular truck owners in the 30-60 year old range.
My point with all this is not to under-estimate how much demand there will be for Cybertruck, even if/when Tesla announces new pricing. The biggest unknown is whether gross margins will be normal automotive-type margins around 5%-15%, normal Tesla-like margins around 25% or, potentially, margins as high as 35%. It mostly depends upon how quickly and easily Tesla can manufacture them. Whether the cost efficiencies Tesla and Munro originally envisioned actually pan out in actual production. Tesla has been impressively tight-lipped about any real details, from pricing to manufacturing challenges and breakthroughs, so much so that I don't think there is anyone outside of Tesla that has a solid idea on how good margins will be. If the margins are there, and suitable batteries are available in sufficient numbers, the one thing I have no doubt on is that demand will be through the roof.
