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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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'Everybody gangsta until they get punched in the mouth.' - Mike Tyson


Lee was trying to beat the market, buying LEAPS with leverage, without hedges, during a bear market ('cuz he smart).

No wonder he got wiped out with margerine calls. Now he's bitter, broke, and has a patreon... What could go wrong next, I wonder?
You're misquoting the sage wisdom of Iron Mike. It's "Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth."

Another good one is- "Real freedom is having nothing. I was freer when I didn't have a cent."
 
Without the discounting, who'd have bought a car in December?
Anyone? Is
I don’t put much credence in overseas stock price action for companies listed in the USA, but one has to admit that TSLA finishing up 5.5 % on the day may signal that investors expected much worse, which would be the main reason for that nasty relentless sell off we witnessed. Maybe anything over 400K was not expected.

We will find out soon. Hopefully the macros are neutral at least.

Or “maybe» it closed 30 mins before the numbers where released?

It dropped to 122$ in a extremely tiny after marked.
 
Ahh… a little more digging and the truth comes out.

The Model Y is considered too safe to be classified as an SUV. ;)



Very very cool that these folks were safe.

That is incredible. I'd assume every airbag in the vehicle must have deployed at the perfect time. Unreal. Top notch chopper piloting there too.
 
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Still on Track for 20 million deliveries in 2030. From JPR007 - Twitter
 
Yes, but they are unwinding the wave which is not just one quarter at a time but for the entire rest of Tesla's delivery existence. Before they build up inventory Q1, Q2, and then draw down inventory Q3 and Q4. That's a wave in itself. Now they are dealing with millions of cars
Agree with unwinding the wave is necessary. But it's not credible at the P&D report to use unwinding the wave as the reason for missing the delivery number. Tesla/Zach specifically guided at Q3 earnings that the delivery number would be very close to the production. To be credible on unwinding the wave, Tesla needs to guide a large gap between production and delivery at the prior quarterly earnings.

Why did Tesla guide aggressively, even though Elon had repeatedly warned about things are getting tough? Oh, was that Elon planning to sell after the earnings report, so Tesla needs to keep stock price high? Why didn't Tesla update the guidance when they knew, maybe around early December, that it's tough to make the number? Updating the guidance will be better than letting TSLA hammer again and again by Reuters reports on the demand issue, and then again when the number is now actually released. Oh, was that a risk putting Elon's stock sales as an insider trade?
 
Anyone else nervous that Elon might decide to take on the bullies here and not make any changes to MY? Prospective customers can make quite a noise. There are some great options to make changes. Discussion best here pls:
EV and Battery Credits
If you move to the other threads, others will follow. I can't be the only premature retiree struggling to keep up with the main thread...

Another brand new thread:
Tesla Investor Day Discussion

Also:
Next Tesla CEO/COO
Following more Tom Zhu promotions.
 
Anyone else nervous that Elon might decide to take on the bullies here and not make any changes to MY? Prospective customers can make quite a noise. There are some great options to make changes. Discussion best here pls:
EV and Battery Credits
If you move to the other threads, others will follow. I can't be the only premature retiree struggling to keep up with the main thread...

Another brand new thread:
Tesla Investor Day Discussion

Also:
Next Tesla CEO/COO
Following more Tom Zhu promotions.
What bullies? I'd prefer the incentives were more focused on vehicle efficiency, but I don't see Tesla as being picked on here. Objectively, if somebody had asked me a year ago if I considered the Model Y to be a SUV, I'd have said heck no. A crossover sure, but not a SUV.
 
Agree with unwinding the wave is necessary. But it's not credible at the P&D report to use unwinding the wave as the reason for missing the delivery number. Tesla/Zach specifically guided at Q3 earnings that the delivery number would be very close to the production. To be credible on unwinding the wave, Tesla needs to guide a large gap between production and delivery at the prior quarterly earnings.

Why did Tesla guide aggressively, even though Elon had repeatedly warned about things are getting tough? Oh, was that Elon planning to sell after the earnings report, so Tesla needs to keep stock price high? Why didn't Tesla update the guidance when they knew, maybe around early December, that it's tough to make the number? Updating the guidance will be better than letting TSLA hammer again and again by Reuters reports on the demand issue, and then again when the number is now actually released. Oh, was that a risk putting Elon's stock sales as an insider trade?
Unfortunately, these are legitimate questions that the CEO and the board must answer.

I was hoping that Tesla would pull a rabbit out of the hat for q4, but that didnt materialize.
 
Not sure I understand all the fuz about delivery vs production(besides it happening in the current environments).

Tesla inventory is now at about 71k units. With a quarterly production of 439 071 that’s about 14,4 days’ worth of production. In other word, from a car is completed to its delivered the average is two weeks.

With only a tiny production in Europe, and with only factories in US and China it actually sounds quite impressing🤔
 
Here are a couple I posted about in that other thread. There are many more. These are just exemplars.
Elon lies about Ukraine aid.
Elon lies about Fauci.
I haven't seen any lies about Tesla or his other businesses, although you'll see many people claim he's been lying about FSD since day one. Personally, I believe he's just overoptimistic on that topic.

If you want to include Elon's constant amplification of lies where he just says "Wow!" or "!!" or memes for 100% and on target, well then there are hundreds.

If you can't see this, well, you should have your vision checked. And if Elon believes that his credibility regarding Tesla isn't affected by his constant lying about political topics, he's incredibly naive.
I agree with everything.

Cars delivered Q1 2023: My bet is 380 000. A bit lower than Q4, but Q1 is a quarter with lower sales. Some subsidies increase the demand, some the opposite. Norway introduced taxes for the first time ever on EVs yesterday. That had many order last year, and just like Model 3s second year I think this year we`ll have 5-6k less deliveries, in Norway.
Anyway, I think if Tesla delivers 400k more cars this year then thats a really good result. As all ICE makers will probably have a considerable decrease in deliveries.
So my bet is 1 750 000. Its my bull case.
If they should grow 50%, then they would have to discover a new market on Mars or something.

I think 50% growth this year is a dream. 40 is excellent, 30 is really good too. Even 20 is good. Its not a race against anyone, with prices to win. Tesla is highly profitable @todays runrate of 1 600 000.

Just trying to keep expectations within the real world here, so it doesnt become a black market for Prozac, or other fine feelgood products in here.
 
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The amount of people panicking, or feeling bad about these numbers is truly baffling to me. Although given some are people who emerge from the shadows only to raise 'demand concerns' at strategic moments it should not surprise us...
ChatGPT has shown AI to now be so good, that I just assume >50% of all online comments are by bots, employed to sway opinions of all kinds...

The production is an all time record AGAIN. All cars that are produced will be delivered, and AFAIK every car this company can make is already pre-sold with a fat margin and zero marketing budget, and more ongoing revenue streams than any other car company on the planet.

Plus none of us have any idea how well Tesla energy is doing.

The company is in great shape, with tons of cash, 2 factories ramping, fat profit margins, new products coming, and the best positioned company on the planet to go into the transition to EVs and renewable energy.

Anybody selling today is nuts. Just buy and HOLD Don't play the market makers game with options, they will screw you. I bought $100k of extra shares last week and very glad I did.
 
I agree with everything.

Cars delivered Q1 2023: My bet is 380 000. A bit lower than Q4, but Q1 is a quarter with lower sales. Some subsidies increase the demand, some the opposite. Norway introduced taxes for the first time ever on EVs yesterday. That had many order last year, and just like Model 3s second year I think this year we`ll have 5-6k less deliveries, in Norway.
Anyway, I think if Tesla delivers 400k more cars this year then thats a really good result. As all ICE makers will probably have a considerable decrease in deliveries.
So my bet is 1 750 000. Its my bull case.
If they should grow 50%, then they would have to discover a new market on Mars or something.

I think 50% growth this year is a dream. 40 is excellent, 30 is really good too. Even 20 is good. Its not a race against anyone, with prices to win. Tesla is highly profitable @todays runrate of 1 600 000.

Just trying to keep expectations within the real world here, so it doesnt become a black market for Prozac, or other feelgood products in here.

Another lever besides tapping onto new market such as Thailand:

For Canada, if Model 3 SR+ can lowered it's price back below $55000 or less (Tesla raised it's price to $59990) once again, there will be surge of demand as it will qualify for $5000 federal incentive. Imagine this combines with new highland revised Model 3, or even better the new $30k USD new model comes, the demand would go over the roof.


"The Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) has increased to $55,000 for base model passenger cars with higher trims of up to $65,000. The MSRP has increased to $60,000 for base models of station wagons, pickup trucks (light trucks), sport utility vehicles (SUVs), minivans, vans, and special purpose vehicles with higher trims up to $70,000."

model 3.JPG
 
So the mega-trend of electrification, with exponentially growing EV sales is gone from one day to the other?

Where I live, that mega trend is only starting. ICE vehicle are now penalized so much in the company car market (>50% of new car sales) that ICE sales will practically disappear by the end of the year. This is based on comments of car importers and lease companies in newspaper articles, and this corresponds to what I hear about company car options from my friends.
 
So the mega-trend of electrification, with exponentially growing EV sales is gone from one day to the other?

Where I live, that mega trend is only starting. ICE vehicle are now penalized so much in the company car market (>50% of new car sales) that ICE sales will practically disappear by the end of the year. This is based on comments of car importers and lease companies in newspaper articles, and this corresponds to what I hear about company car options from my friends.
Exactly. I don't even know if his statement is true. A lot of cars are in transit and sold.