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Maybe or maybe not. But the other problem that the "Model 2" would face is that it's biggest markets would be outside of the United States. There, the Chinese competition is fierce and would drive down margins. I think the market is misreading/misinterpreting the Model 2 as some sort of...

In this whole discussion about Model 2 vs Robotaxi....I think what gets missed is that model 2 (even if produced) is not necessarily a market success in the United States. It may be a compelling value outside of the US where small cars are more prevalent. However, statements by Elon indicate...

from the proxy: "While the Company believes that the Ratification should be upheld by a Delaware court, the Special Committee noted that even a favorable vote by our stockholders to ratify the 2018 CEO Performance Award may not fully resolve the matter. " This line probably not getting enough...

It looks like Sawyer indicated that the price reduction was for ordering 1 Megapack at a time. Before the cut, there was already lower cost/megapack when ordering multiple megapacks at a time. Do we know if the price cut affected that too or was this limited to orders at lower quantity...

Joe Tegtmeyer reporting on Twitter that Giga Texas is likely going to pause for retooling. Ultimately increasing model y output after the retooling. My speculation: Tesla is going to move model Y production from Fremont to Texas. Would coincide with reports of them demolishing the ga4 line...

please share!

good point. i acknowledge my mistake. that isn't correct and capex isn't even part of net income. the original claim that was that earnings per share would be at $AAPL levels if capex went down. i don't see how that claim is valid.

I see. I'd argue then that it is not fair to say that EPS are substantially depressed due to capex and expansion plans. Seems like the bull case now rests much more heavily on FSD and energy than it did before. This is a significant change from early 2022 where we could have a $1T+...

How are your calculations getting you to EPS to AAPL levels? Here are some back of the envelope calculations: Based on the latest 10Q, looks like Tesla had $2B in capex for Q1 2023. They are guiding for 7-9B in capex for 2023,2024, and 2025. What would be a more 'normal' capex for Tesla if...

Teslas are incredible vehicles and easily the best cars on the planet. On top of that, the vehicles are pretty close to price parity with their ICE counterparts. Further still, the model Y and model 3 are also pretty close to the average sale vehicle sale price among all vehicles in the United...

Where do you think energy deployment (in terms of GWh) and gross margins need to be on the report to show signs that it is on the S-curve?

How do the IRA manufacturer credits show up on the financials? Are they considered regulatory credits? I have sense of dread for tomorrow and the Q1 report. But I suppose it’s possible that operating margin and EPS might turn out better than consensus if those credits are being under...

Doing it right after the call would be even worse optics, so as much as I’d like to agree, I am not convinced by this argument.

Ha! totally misread that word. Incredible what the mind does. I'd correct my post, but it's too late now. Thanks. Based on the comments after my initial post, I have to believe that Tesla didn't do it because it doesn't meet all of their specs for an ideal battery.

CATL just announced that their new Sodium ion batteries will first go into Chevy EV's. Announcement here: https://twitter.com/catl_official I'm curious as to why not Tesla? Possible reasons (complete speculation): 1. Chevy willing to pay premium for the initial contract. 2) Doesn't meet...

JB nominated to be on the BOD. Excellent news.

I don't think it is cybertruck. in elon's tweet he said: "EV-1 -> Tzero -> Roadster -> S3XY -> Semi -> Cybertruck …" So I'm guessing it's not Cybertruck that comes after the "..." Also, he also mentioned on the latest earnings call that meaningful production of cybertruck happens later, so...

Maybe it’s a part of a Megapack XL?

I think this answers the question about why the market just spiked:

Yeah, on the main vehicle (for S,3,X,&Y) ordering page, there is a new link for "See Early Delivery Options for <zipcode>"

Matt Jung's inventory chart shows a spike up in US model Y's available, so seems plausible.

MODS: If there is a better thread for this discussion, please feel free to move. I have been following the Tesla energy/megapack XL story and it sounds incredible. One of @Zerosumgame33 (the main proponent of this thesis on Twitter), has been saying that switching to LFP chemistry for...

They are ramping their factories significantly, so there could be a big drag. Presumably, they aren't as capital efficient as Tesla.

In other words, marginal cost is close to zero, like for most software. Probably a little more than zero, since there may be some additional insurance expense and other things we don't realize.

It's possible that they did do that, but didn't tell us. However, when the news of the purchase broke, Elon threw a little cold water on the story. This is what he said: "You’re welcome! If any of this is based on Hertz, I’d like to emphasize that no contract has been signed yet. Tesla has...

It's not new news. However, it is absolutely a relevant question for investors. When a CEO sells a significant stake in his company's shares while possibly in possession of adverse material non public information, that should raise questions. He needs to answer them as he is accountable to...

The Ariya base battery pack offers a range of 216 miles. Also, because it is assembled in Japan, it doesn’t get the $7500 tax credit.

Can never be sure without looking underneath the hood of the survey, but he should be motivated by trying to get the most accurate data and not push a specific bull/bear narrative. He also usually makes reasoned comments about TSLA, so I take this as a positive.

There are also very few 7-seater model Y's available which would also be evidence that the tax credit is helping drive sales. I did a little spot check on the inventory at major markets in the United States. The numbers on Matt Jung's website appear directionally correct and plausible to me...

Is there a way to look at the Tesla China website from outside of China without having your own VPN?

And regardless, Tesla expects that other competitors may adopt/copy its technologies. But with what time lag? In the end, as Elon has said, it's the pace of innovation and iteration that matters.

I'm editing my original post because I don't think it adds much to the conversation here. But it's not healthy dialogue on this board when posters with legitimate concerns are impugned.

This is giving me heartburn. The absolute numbers may not be accurate, but the trendlines and relative numbers are important. It looks like inventory numbers are higher than they were in December when discounting happened.

If autos are a structurally bad business to be in, why is Apple wanting to get in it? Apple would not purposely add a massive business only for it to be a perpetual drag on what is otherwise a highly profitable business. They see it as an important path, albeit a difficult one, to pursue.

we What happened to the huge order that Hertz placed for Teslas? https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38052601/hertz-buying-100000-tesla-rental-evs/ Do we have confirmation that Tesla delivered all of them? Just wondering in the context of higher inventory lately.

Yeah. Similar psychology at play for me over the last year. Learned the "Don't let the tax tail wave the investment dog" lesson for the future. Although, as I mentioned in another thread, I am pretty sure I would have bought back in after selling, because "there is no way TSLA can go down...

I so want to believe this. I wish Tesla China didn’t trash their credibility at the end of 2022. Makes it harder to believe frankly.

I guess with these price cuts we can assume no refresh is coming in the very near future? Unless the project highland is something that is all behind behind the scenes and helping reduce manufacturing costs that would enable these price cuts?

Looks like big price reductions for 3 and Y in China.

Wait…the buck stops with everyone except Elon? Who besides Elon would be responsible? Elon sold stock during a time where they should have revised guidance downward, so not understanding why he gets a pass on this.

yeah. why isn't the website updated to reflect this? what reason is there for not doing that?

That claim by Gene was bizarre. I don’t think Tesla operates that way. They have limited variations and end up matching up vehicles with orders after the fact. I could be wrong of course….

Yeah. For the wave, once it is unwound completely, there shouldn’t be a significant gap in P and D going forward. The only gap (measured in vehicles) should be for production increases, but that shouldn’t change the amount of inventory if measured in days of production or days of sales. If...

Unfortunately, these are legitimate questions that the CEO and the board must answer. I was hoping that Tesla would pull a rabbit out of the hat for q4, but that didnt materialize.

Even yesterday, one of the right wing accounts he regularly amplifies (catturd), mocked electric vehicles and implied that they could not be environmentally friendly. Elon managed a very feeble “Hey!!” Response to that. That is crap. As Tesla CEO, he needs to denounce nonsense like that...

Even Elon suggested there was a demand issue. He ascribed it to macro environment/fed.

It’s fine if Tesla wants to unwind the wave intentionally. However, it sure looked like they tried to wind up the wave at the of the quarter by having discounts in North America and suspending some production in China in December. There need to be some tough questions asked on the earnings call.

Agree. I don’t have a problem that he owns twitter. I have a problem of saying really stupid things and turning off customers.

Doesn’t matter. Long form or short form. What the ceo communicates is hugely important.

Words can be powerful.