Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

My hope was to get a short presentation about each of the "subsidiaries." Insurance, Bot, Semi, RNA micro factory, factory build outs, RT platform progress, 4680 challenges and successes, lithium refining, MP, CT progress, scale and possible pricing and margins etc. These are the kinds of details investors need to properly value a business.

Instead, it seems like we'll be getting the often repeated 2030 goals for cars and batteries. We all understand that. Master Plan part Tres has already been fully leaked as far as I can tell. I was hoping to get an invite but now I don't think I even want to go.

I am the opposite. This is entirely WHY I am a long term TSLA holder. Companies like GM, Ford, VW are all about the next quarters financial results. This is why those companies churn out ridiculous 'concept cars' and pay for superbowl adverts. They want the headline tomorrow, or this month, to boost their compensation plans before they quit and jump ship to another company, often another sector. They have zero short term thinking.

Elon is a big fan of the sci-fi writer Iain M Banks. One of his best books has the story of a starship(sleeper service) which overnight transforms itself into the fastest ship ever built, containing the largest warfleet of ships ever conceived, all built in incredible time...because the ship had spent the last 30 years or so doing nothing but *planning* how to do it.

This is a philosophy I think Elon admires and enjoys. he does not give a damn about whether the stock pops after investors day 2023. He is planning for 2030 and beyond, maybe even to 2050.

Huge advances cannot be made with just short term thinking. Tesla is planning how to totally dominate transport, energy and robotics/AI in 2030+. I would happily watch the share price stay flat for 7 years if thats what it takes for them to achieve their 2030 goal.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wow, better than a company press release, what’s up with Phil, is his an independent viewpoint or is this CNBS hedging?

CNBS pays Phil's salary so....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

TA is exactly like an EKG. No more and no less. To an uninformed eye, EKG is nothing more than bunch of squiggly lines not worth the paper it’s printed on. To Cardiologist, EKG is incredibly useful tool.
Those who believe that TA is rubbish are exactly right- for them TA holds zero value.
For someone like me who has spent every single day of my life for last 25 years reading stock charts, it’s an entirely different experience
Whatever works. Singular goal is to make money in stock market which is a zero sum game. If astrology works, I’d become astrologer in a heart beat

Cha math by the way is not the most reliable fellow - informed buyer beware

(I’ll beat that guy in due course of time at this game)

Chamath = The only billionaire with liquidity issues.

 

[JRP3]

Wow, better than a company press release, what’s up with Phil, is his an independent viewpoint or is this CNBS hedging?

While far from perfect Phil has been one of the few main stream talking heads with mostly reasonable takes on Tesla over the years.

 

[juanmedina]

Woz said that Elon defrauded him and his family:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623655340993662978

 

[Singuy]

Chamath = The only billionaire with liquidity issues.

You can put Musk on that list too. Everytime Musk taps into his liquidity, he gets a whirlwind of hate.

 

[StealthP3D]

To get to $2000 a share the company will be worth $6 trillion. To be worth that much money you need people to actually put in that much money. Where exactly does this 6 trillion come from if we can't even find enough people with 4 billion right now?

And no we haven't actually recovered from Elons selling under $200 yet. The Nasdaq is 5% Higher than December 1 and TSLA is 3% higher than December 1. I'm just saying be realistic, TSLA will not be worth 6 trillion in 2-3 years. That is a fairy tale.

Sigh...It looks like people still don't understand the most basic mechanics of share valuations. For a company to have a market cap of $6 trillion, it is not necessary for people to "actually put in that much money".

Let's say you have a company with a market cap of $100,000 and they have 10,000 shares trading at $10 each. But the company has finally perfected their super-duper genetically modified goose that lays golden eggs and 1 out of ten eggs is not a golden egg, but a real one that turns into another goose that lays golden eggs. Forgetting that, with enough of these geese laying golden eggs, the price of gold will eventually crash, investors start bidding up the shares of the company. But none of the 10,000 shareholders want to sell. Eventually, other investors want in so badly the bid price reaches $1 million per share and a weak hand decides to sell his/her one share to the million-dollar bidder. Now the shares are officially "worth" a million dollars each, and the company market cap is 10 billion dollars. But only one share and $1 million dollars has traded hands as the market cap has gone up by nearly $10,000,000,000.

The share price and the derived market cap are artificial constructs based on the price of the last share traded. I'm shocked that so many people still don't understand what share price and derived market cap actually means after all the good explanations that have given here in the not-so-distant past.

edit: And to be clear, even if exchanges have special rules that prevent the sale of one share from moving the price that much, the principle is still the same, the market cap is a derived metric that has nothing to do with that much money having traded hands.

 

[unk45]

TA is exactly like an EKG. No more and no less. To an uninformed eye, EKG is nothing more than bunch of squiggly lines not worth the paper it’s printed on. To Cardiologist, EKG is incredibly useful tool.
Those who believe that TA is rubbish are exactly right- for them TA holds zero value.
For someone like me who has spent every single day of my life for last 25 years reading stock charts, it’s an entirely different experience
Whatever works. Singular goal is to make money in stock market which is a zero sum game. If astrology works, I’d become astrologer in a heart beat

Cha math by the way is not the most reliable fellow - informed buyer beware

(I’ll beat that guy in due course of time at this game)

There is a crucial difference:
an EKG measures an observed physical action that is a direct measurement of a physical event that directly reports that event, a heartbeat. That significance does provide the needed information to judge further actions.

TA does nothing like that. No existing TA can measure even actual securities trading volume because much of that volume is not subject to direct reporting. All TA, at their best are inferences about past events, records of information that is public, and various forms of stochastic models, that may or may not reflect causal relationships.

To suggest TA and an EKG are somehow equal is to confuse accuracy with precision.
It really makes no difference how many years one looks at charts.

 

[Big Time]

Slowly but surely we are approaching 50 Day MA. Would be great to blast thru, next resistance? 290-300?

 

[Singuy]

Slowly but surely we are approaching 50 Day MA. Would be great to blast thru, next resistance? 290-300?

We should all thank The Tesla Economist for his sacrifice. The market needed a solid indicator for capitulation and he was the man of the hour we needed.

 

[wipster]

Pop goes the TSLA!!!

 

[bkp_duke]

Woz said that Elon defrauded him and his family:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623655340993662978

Woz appears to still be bitter . . .

 

[GOVA]

Frankly, I am shocked to see all of those positive article pieces from many anti-Tesla sources. Are they affraid now? 'Hey Elon, look we are good now' kind of situation.

 

[UncaNed]

Birkshire selling almost 140 million $ of BYD: Berkshire Hathaway sells $138.9 million of shares in China's BYD
Could it be?

Yes. Perhaps Birkshire is but not Bekshire??

 

[Nocturnal]

We should all thank The Tesla Economist for his sacrifice. The market needed a solid indicator for capitulation and he was the man of the hour we needed.

I think we can thank our old friend for calling the bottom.

 

[StealthP3D]

Slowly but surely we are approaching 50 Day MA. Would be great to blast thru, next resistance? 290-300?

I don't give a FF when TSLA blasts through 'resistance' at $290-$300, I just want to see the company continue to grow and become more efficient at making ever-better products. The end result will be the same, a company that offers the world so much value that no one can touch them will naturally be worth a lot more money.

In other words, I want to see the company actually become increasingly more valuable rather than just the shares. Because one adds true value to my portfolio while the other just makes the value listed in my portfolio less certain.

 

[wtlloyd]

I give up.
This year's ROTH contribution has been sitting waiting for a month, don't ask me what for. Gone.
Oh, and added 250 shares in the Investment account as well.
I got quite a few shares at $106 but niggling doubts (damn YouTubers!) kept me from going all in, just in case.

 

[WattsHappening]

Slowly but surely we are approaching 50 Day MA. Would be great to blast thru, next resistance? 290-300?

Do you mean the 200 day MA? We blew through the 50 day a while ago.

 

[AndrewZ]

I give up.
This year's ROTH contribution has been sitting waiting for a month, don't ask me what for. Gone.
Oh, and added 250 shares in the Investment account as well.
I got quite a few shares at $106 but niggling doubts (damn YouTubers!) kept me from going all in, just in case.

Hard FOMO, we're 40 days through the year

 

[Ogre]

As he does regularly... Drew too...
View attachment 905011

Just a reminder, Zach just bought a 13,500 shares just a few weeks ago by exercising options.

Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn exercises options and buys 13.5k TSLA shares

As per a recent Form-4 filing with the SEC, Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn had exercised options to buy 13,500 TSLA shares.

www.teslarati.com

Very shrewd move on his part. Literally doubling is paycheck in 6 weeks. Pocketed an extra million dollars for that little insight right there. At the time we knew it was a bullish move, but don’t think many expected it would pay off so well or so quickly.