Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

Order is being restored to the universe....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623709313171615746

 

[Ogre]

Woz said that Elon defrauded him and his family:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623655340993662978

I don’t know why Woz gets so much attention at this point. He was a good engineer 40 years ago. Hasn’t shown a whole lot of talent since.

He clearly doesn’t even get why Apple got as big as it did and knows even less about Tesla.

 

[FastCompany]

Tesla Form SC 13G/A filing.

States that Vanguard Group now owns 6.9% of TSLA

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla Form SC 13G/A filing.

States that Vanguard Group now owns 6.9% of TSLA

6.9%, very apt.

 

[M3Edm]

I give up.
This year's ROTH contribution has been sitting waiting for a month, don't ask me what for. Gone.
Oh, and added 250 shares in the Investment account as well.
I got quite a few shares at $106 but niggling doubts (damn YouTubers!) kept me from going all in, just in case.

The positive you can take away is the last 3 months really show people's true skill/value. When the stock just goes up, everyone looks like a genius. It's when it drops 70%, is when you know who the good Youtubers with true conviction are.

 

[Usain]

I don’t know why Woz gets so much attention at this point. He was a good engineer 40 years ago. Hasn’t shown a whole lot of talent since.

He clearly doesn’t even get why Apple got as big as it did and knows even less about Tesla.

He's just mad about Elon promising FSD way back when. He feels like he was taken. I don't share that anger, but I understand why some do.

 

[Chenkers]

What’s the date on BH announcing new share purchases, again?

Last year they filed their Q421 13F-HR return on the 14th of February (generally 14-16th). So only a few days until we find out. If they have new holdings (eg TSLA) they may file a form 13F-HR/A.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc 13F Filings

 

[Unpilot]

This is why those companies churn out ridiculous 'concept cars' and pay for superbowl adverts. They want the headline tomorrow, or this month, to boost their compensation plans before they quit and jump ship to another company, often another sector. They have zero short term thinking.

Actually that is all they have.....pretty sure you meant to say "zero long term thinking"

 

[Unpilot]

I think we can thank our old friend for calling the bottom.

This guy has as much credibility as a goldfish.

At least he is not asked on any of the talking head shows anymore.....right?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I give up.
This year's ROTH contribution has been sitting waiting for a month, don't ask me what for. Gone.
Oh, and added 250 shares in the Investment account as well.
I got quite a few shares at $106 but niggling doubts (damn YouTubers!) kept me from going all in, just in case.

Human psychological emotions are really fascinating to study I agree though, when it was in a free fall, i stopped for about 5 seconds to see if there was any other stock that had the potential to return 10X by 2030, i could not find any, so i bought more $TSLA.
Buys at $104, $110, $120, $143, $160.....the list is endless

 

[AndrewZ]

He's just mad about Elon promising FSD way back when. He feels like he was taken. I don't share that anger, but I understand why some do.

Reality setting in around HW3 not being upgraded and those vehicles never achieving anything resembling Robotaxi functionality will generate more anger than it already has. I think Tesla's butt is pretty covered there, but the public perception has been different in many cases and it will likely make people more upset.

I always expected further hardware and software iterations but assumed upgrades would be done regardless of how onerous. At this point, I consider HW3 all but done and dusted.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lucid... drops price by $7,500 but still too expensive.
"...the company has been seeing the number of outstanding reservations drop faster than by how many cars they are delivering."

So when that finally evens out, it's still goes to zero as they do financial gymnastics.

That "Investor" that I rented from on Turo (Model X with "LUCID 2" plates on it) - he swore "Lucid would have healthy margins because they also are vertically integrated". Well ya, at $130K+ they better have some margin, but so much for Wrights law kicking in.

Lucid offers another $7,500 discount on Air Grand Touring and Touring sedans in the US

Lucid Group announced on Thursday that customers in the US can take $7,500 off the purchase price of the Air Grand Touring and Air Touring luxury electric sedans, in another attempt to keep up with […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[scaesare]

He's just mad about Elon promising FSD way back when. He feels like he was taken. I don't share that anger, but I understand why some do.

I think that's the problem Woz, and many, have... they read "promise" when Elon talks about things that are clearly works in-progress and estimates.

Has Elon said things like "X months maybe, 6 months definitely"? Yes. If you are paying attention to things like context, is it obvious that he's not promising things? Also yes.

I find it unfortunate, because folks who then complain then increase that chance that the "open book" philosophy of sharing the development progress and details will end up being closed because it's just not worth the amount of complaining it engenders....

 

[Big Time]

Do you mean the 200 day MA? We blew through the 50 day a while ago.

Yes that is my bad, was much to zoomed in and looked at wrong color.
200 Day! Soon
225 looks like where it rests

 

[Ogre]

Lucid... drops price by $7,500 but still too expensive.
"...the company has been seeing the number of outstanding reservations drop faster than by how many cars they are delivering."

So when that finally evens out, it's still goes to zero as they do financial gymnastics.

That "Investor" that I rented from on Turo (Model X with "LUCID 2" plates on it) - he swore "Lucid would have healthy margins because they also are vertically integrated". Well ya, at $130K+ they better have some margin, but so much for Wrights law kicking in.

Lucid offers another $7,500 discount on Air Grand Touring and Touring sedans in the US

Lucid Group announced on Thursday that customers in the US can take $7,500 off the purchase price of the Air Grand Touring and Air Touring luxury electric sedans, in another attempt to keep up with […]

driveteslacanada.ca

But Rawlinson’s accent adds at least $30k-50k worth of brand value to each car. He’s like the anti-Musk. Not great at running a tight ship, but he spreads brand value around like it’s butter. Maybe Ross Gerber and him should go to the Tesla Board Meeting together, Ross for the BOD and Rawlinson for CEO. It’ll go over quite well with Tesla trading at $300+ per share in May. They just need to figure out a way to get all the people who panic sold at $100/ share to vote.


(Too much sarcasm this time @UncaNed ?)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My wife today..."I have not heard much about Elon in the news lately. Is everything ok?"
Me: "No news is good news"
Wife: "We are still ok to retire by 2030 right?"
Me:
Wife: "Right?"

 

[Captkerosene]

I am the opposite. This is entirely WHY I am a long term TSLA holder. Companies like GM, Ford, VW are all about the next quarters financial results. This is why those companies churn out ridiculous 'concept cars' and pay for superbowl adverts. They want the headline tomorrow, or this month, to boost their compensation plans before they quit and jump ship to another company, often another sector. They have zero short term thinking.

Elon is a big fan of the sci-fi writer Iain M Banks. One of his best books has the story of a starship(sleeper service) which overnight transforms itself into the fastest ship ever built, containing the largest warfleet of ships ever conceived, all built in incredible time...because the ship had spent the last 30 years or so doing nothing but *planning* how to do it.

This is a philosophy I think Elon admires and enjoys. he does not give a damn about whether the stock pops after investors day 2023. He is planning for 2030 and beyond, maybe even to 2050.

Huge advances cannot be made with just short term thinking. Tesla is planning how to totally dominate transport, energy and robotics/AI in 2030+. I would happily watch the share price stay flat for 7 years if thats what it takes for them to achieve their 2030 goal.

My issue with investor day is that it seems that it will lack the granularity necessary to be of any use to investors already familiar with the company.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

But Rawlinson’s accent adds at least $30k-50k worth of brand value to each car. He’s like the anti-Musk. Not great at running a tight ship, but he spreads brand value around like it’s butter. Maybe Ross Gerber and him should go to the Tesla Board Meeting together, Ross for the BOD and Rawlinson for CEO. It’ll go over quite well with Tesla trading at $300+ per share in May. They just need to figure out a way to get all the people who panic sold at $100/ share to vote.


(Too much sarcasm this time @UncaNed ?)

Even with the $30-$50k brand value, those cars are still overpriced.

 

[wipster]

Sigh...It looks like people still don't understand the most basic mechanics of share valuations. For a company to have a market cap of $6 trillion, it is not necessary for people to "actually put in that much money".

Let's say you have a company with a market cap of $100,000 and they have 10,000 shares trading at $10 each. But the company has finally perfected their super-duper genetically modified goose that lays golden eggs and 1 out of ten eggs is not a golden egg, but a real one that turns into another goose that lays golden eggs. Forgetting that, with enough of these geese laying golden eggs, the price of gold will eventually crash, investors start bidding up the shares of the company. But none of the 10,000 shareholders want to sell. Eventually, other investors want in so badly the bid price reaches $1 million per share and a weak hand decides to sell his/her one share to the million-dollar bidder. Now the shares are officially "worth" a million dollars each, and the company market cap is 10 billion dollars. But only one share and $1 million dollars has traded hands as the market cap has gone up by nearly $10,000,000,000.

The share price and the derived market cap are artificial constructs based on the price of the last share traded. I'm shocked that so many people still don't understand what share price and derived market cap actually means after all the good explanations that have given here in the not-so-distant past.

edit: And to be clear, even if exchanges have special rules that prevent the sale of one share from moving the price that much, the principle is still the same, the market cap is a derived metric that has nothing to do with that much money having traded hands.

Nice post, but @mongo posted that earlier in a single sentence.

Just sayin' ;-)

 

[Singuy]

Hmm, Lucid might be in lots of trouble. Recent drone fly over increased the amount of cars parked in logistic lot to now over 2k+. This is a quarter worth of cars sitting on the lot with very minimal activities from car carriers. They did say on the Q4 call they have logistical issues, but we are talking about moving dozens of cars a day...how much logistical issues can you possibility have?