Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Well, regular steel would probably need painting, yes. A wrap as a factory option might make sense for something made from aluminum or stainless steel- though I think wraps might be too labor intensive. Maybe that could be automated. I guess I missed the part in the presentation suggesting no paint? I've only watched the first hour (half alert) and when Elon came back out for the Optimus demo so far.

The presentation on the Gen3 platform mentioned painting the parts that need to be psinted.

In a conversation at the event or soon after Tom Zhu cryptically stated that "paint is expensive".

I am not sure automated wrapping of parts is possible or that wraps would last long enough. It just seems like it would be easier to do for individual parts.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The message of the Optimus segment of the presentation clearly was to show progress updates on some of the things the bot can do now (at least once but presumably not reliably or they would’ve done a live demo).

Then the CEO said “the progress is quite significant” while the clip was rolling and also later said the robot is going to be worth vastly more than the rest of the enterprise combined.

If there’s computer-generated graphics for elements like the background or something just to make the appearance snazzier then that isn’t important. However, if the bot can’t actually unplug a wire bundle, pick up a leg, walk around while carrying it, operate a handheld rotary tool, pick up a little screw and insert it into a hole, and grasp a piece of fabric, then yes that’s deceitful and fraudulent. No better than Trevor Milton getting on stage in front of a Nikola One prototype and saying it’s a “This is a real truck, not a pusher” and showing a video of it on the highway but neglecting to mention that it was coasting downhill.

Ok. Seems like you're backing away from the no CGI position.

 

[JRP3]

I'm not a gamer either, but I suggest you take a look at some of the new photorealistic games like Red Dead redemption 2 and Ghost of Tsushima. Those games are orders of magnitude more difficult to program than a few minutes of non interactive Optimus action in poor lighting.

I just watched trailers for both games, immediately obvious that they are CGI.

 

[Knightshade]

If the capabilities demonstrated in the video were faked with CGI, then this was tantamount to lying. A pretend animation is not an update.

Maybe it is fake but that’s an extraordinary claim that should require extraordinary evidence. That would mean that Tesla decided to defraud investors for some reason and spent time making this video instead of doing actual work towards the mission. That seems implausible in my opinion.

What are your thoughts on the 2016 FSD video that Ashok himself has told us was basically fake- and specifically requested by Elon ? (>500 miles of repeated almost constant intervention filming plus at least one property accident--even after them having pre-3D-mapped the entire route- then all video edited into one seemingly seamless FSD drive that Elon at the time claimed required "no human input at all”)

Given the only thing Elon really said about Optimus while the video was playing was that it wasn't even walking at the last demo- this video- real or not- seems to have a lot LESS specific claims attached to it capabilities wise than that did.

 

[Gigapress]

Ok. Seems like you're backing away from the no CGI position.

No I’m clarifying what I said, which was “If the capabilities demonstrated in the video were faked with CGI, then this was tantamount to lying.”

They could’ve shown Optimi working in an empty room with white walls and that wouldn’t make a difference.

 

[SmokyPeat]

No I’m clarifying what I said, which was “If the capabilities demonstrated in the video were faked with CGI, then this was tantamount to lying.”

They could’ve shown Optimi working in an empty room with white walls and that wouldn’t make a difference.

Ok. It makes you wonder why they would add a fake background though. Who knows- maybe it's all the real deal and just looks super fake in some areas to some of us.

 

[Thekiwi]

Ok. It makes you wonder why they would add a fake background though. Who knows- maybe it's all the real deal and just looks super fake in some areas to some of us.

Can you post a screenshot of the part of the video that looks “super fake” to you?

 

[ZeApelido]

These are the opinions of Swedes.

Swedes.

Let that sink in.

Greetings from Norway.



















...full disclosure - I'm part Swedish

Keep sipping on that glogg and snapps, Swedes.

 

[electracity]

Somehow you miss the point. You're quite confident despite being a bit clueless.
As a former owner of a Bahamian island, a resident of more countries than you may have visited as a tourist and a citizen more than one I have firm opinions.

One such opinion is that generalizations built on general data do not ever provide useful decision support. You will see in five years time or so, just what effect Tesla can bring to these 'benighted shores'.

You are a very special internet person.

Now explain how a continent that buys four million new cars a year at an average ASP under $25K can absorb the output of the new factory.

A super duper man of the world should be able to spot a deception designed to avoid Osborning 3/Y sales in the U.S.

And BTW, Elon's "only ten models" statement is designed for the same effect.

 

[aronth5]

It’s a poor analogy.

Robotaxi is either working or not. It is a binary. One day Robotaxi does not exist, the next it does. If they are 5 lines of code short of releasing final FSD, it just trundles along in this weird half finished state we see now.

Ramping production is a progression. If Tesla is 5 cars short of 20m vehicles per year, every step between here and there generates huge profits.

Robotaxi also has an amorphous objective. Nobody really quite knows what the final version of Robotaxi looks like. Does it require Dojo running? Maybe something beyond Dojo event? what about onboard hardware? Is Hardware 3 enough for Robotaxi or just FSD? Without knowing the full scope it’s impossible to know how close to the finish line you are.

Shipping 20m cars is by definition a much more knowable problem. It’s easy to measure progress and see when they are on track. They’ve even given us a benchmark for it.

It’ll be a challenge, but there will never be this big void of time where we’re in the dark about progress. Obviously we won’t know what their full plan and progress is, but we know where we are on the curve at any given moment.

You are right the anology was off but the point that Tesla sets unrealistic goals still pertains. People just need to temper their enthusiasm.

 

[MC3OZ]

No, I'm saying I wasn't that impressed by the conversation Dr. Know it all had with his robotics friend on YouTube. I found what I believe to be at least partially computer generated images of Optimus fairly impressive. The short bit in the video where the "shoulder" is drawn together by tightening the nut does look real to my eye. Why was the lighting so poor? Clearly a very large percentage of people think it's real. And it can't all be confirmation bias, because quite a decent percentage of Tesla haters think it's real too. It's all very interesting to me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Not gonna cry over it.

What about the lega l point Dr Know It All made?

Trevor Milton got into serious legal trouble for claiming that a fake presentation was real.

Investor Day wasn't a stock pumping event, It was an information sharing event. No need to risk legal jeapody with a fake presentation.

 

[GOVA]

People have no clue what's coming with EDIT: REAL WORLD AI, Optimus and all based on AI really.


The fact that the discussion even exists whether it was a real Optimus vs CGI is quite telling. This also shows how nothing people know of AI and Auto Pilot.

Swedish forum thinks? Really? This is what is going to establish Elon's and Tesla's credibility?

Elon during Optimus(es) fragment "... worth bearing in mind that wehen we did the AI day this version of bot just did not walk at all, so the rate of improvement here is quite significant..."
Does anybody really think Elon would have commented this for a CGI flick?

Some people are hopless.

 

[electracity]

People are missing the likelihood that Monterrey GF will also be used to manufacture low cost parts for the rest of Tesla. Remember the 5,000 unique suppliers to manufacture a car? Tesla will knock that number way down by having a lot of those parts made in Mexico. Not all, of course, but many.

That's a good point. And another reason that the Mexico City location was refused. Austin will continue to expand vehicle production. The more manpower intensive parts manufacturer can be done at Monterey.

Musk probably wanted to follow that path in China too. Limiting expansion is probably the primary reason China gave Tesla a minimal size site.

 

[Gigapress]

What are your thoughts on the 2016 FSD video that Ashok himself has told us was basically fake- and specifically requested by Elon ? (>500 miles of repeated almost constant intervention filming plus at least one property accident--even after them having pre-3D-mapped the entire route- then all video edited into one seemingly seamless FSD drive that Elon at the time claimed required "no human input at all”)

Given the only thing Elon really said about Optimus while the video was playing was that it wasn't even walking at the last demo- this video- real or not- seems to have a lot LESS specific claims attached to it capabilities wise than that did.

I think that cherry picking was deceitful and it was bad form to leave out that context when they published the 2016 FSD demo. However that was still real footage of FSD operating. The reliability was low, but the car was in fact driving itself without human input.

I don’t think anyone should reasonably believe that Optimus has the ability to consistently do what it showed in the video. If so, a live demo like on 2022 AI Day would’ve been doable. It’s a whole different level to claim Tesla simply fabricated video of even the single instances of the bot performing these tasks.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Can you post a screenshot of the part of the video that looks “super fake” to you?

There's too much really. The background looks fake. The shadows look fake. The cord unplug and drill dismount look fake. The part that looks most real to me is the second or three where the shoulder joint is being fastened. I will say that all of my viewing is on a smartphone- so that's my excuse if I'm wrong.

 

[JRP3]

I will say that all of my viewing is on a smartphone- so that's my excuse if I'm wrong.

That sort of explains everything.

 

[Thekiwi]

There's too much really. The background looks fake. The shadows look fake. The cord unplug and drill dismount look fake. The part that looks most real to me is the second or three where the shoulder joint is being fastened. I will say that all of my viewing is on a smartphone- so that's my excuse if I'm wrong.

Just show us one frame you think is fake please.

 

[Gigapress]

Now explain how a continent that buys four million new cars a year at an average ASP under $25K can absorb the output of the new factory.

This much is true. I appreciate @unk45 ’s reminders for those of us in the USA to look beyond our national borders but this is the economic reality.

All of Latin America combined, including Mexico itself, buys a bit less than 6 million new light-duty vehicles per year.

For comparison, the USA and Canada combined for 15 million last year, and that’s in a down year for sales volume. Mexico buys as many new cars as Canada despite having more than triple the population.

Latin America mostly imports used vehicles from wealthier markets. The continued economic growth in Latin America and the improved overall affordability of low-cost Teslas will open up new opportunities for buyers to purchase new cars, but the market still isn’t very large relative to the scale of Tesla’s ambitions for Giga Mexico.

The focus on markets in USA/Canada, Western Europe, China, Japan, and Australia/NZ is justified because this is where the vast majority of new cars are sold.

 

[scaesare]

The X is bigger on the inside with more rear storage right?

I guess my assumption is that if you needed seating for 5, limiting yourself to the 7-seater Y that has a 3rd row of seats that take up storage space, even if folded away , seems at odds with your needs...

 

[MC3OZ]

This much is true. I appreciate @unk45 ’s reminders for those of us in the USA to look beyond our national borders but this is the economic reality.

All of Latin America combined, including Mexico itself, buys a bit less than 6 million new light duty vehicles per year.

For comparison, the USA and Canada combined for 15 million last year, and that’s in a down year for sales volume.

Latin America mostly imports used vehicles from wealthier markets.

Shanghai makes cars for the Chinese market and export.

The initial price of Gen3 can be slowly walked down over time.

We don't know how the future will play out.

Fuel savings are a factor especially with lower priced EVs, most people understand TCO.