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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Continuing the slow return to my thread, after a nice respite and a critically-needed focusing on family matters -

There have been, understandably, a lot of suggestions as to why this recent spectacular rise of TSLA began. I agree with a good fraction of those - that is, I think there has been a concatenation of reasons - but out of courtesy to each I am not going to enumerate the ones which I feel bear more weight than others.

Rather, I am going to return to the one which mirrored best my own beliefs and which also was the proximal cause for my resuming posting. That is the post of Papafox’s that described an unnamed individual investor suggesting that his having been contacted by BlackRock was a five-alarm BUY! signal - that at least one arm of that inconceivably immense (between 9 and 11 trillion dollars under management) organization was about to or had started accumulating TSLA.

That occurred on 24 May, when TSLA was at $184.29. Eleven trading days, $62.40 and 33.9% ago. Helluva start to a good run. And can you imagine how horrible that investor would now be feeling had he taken the bait of the premium to those covered calls at that time?
I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to think that Blackrock already had information about the Ford and GM deals at the time they were trying to get others to write calls for them
 
As a follow-up:


In the East Coast of USA, they have been dealing with wildfire smoke for a few days now all due to a 40 degree+ change towards the hotter side on the top part of Canada (which sparked the aforementioned wildfires):
The last time another Orange Day happened in SF Bay Area: Orange Skies Day - Wikipedia

TSLA ran up +$100 / share from ~$135 -> ~$235 between 9/9/2020 -> 12/31/2020 (starting mostly 2 months after on 11/14/2020)

I'm beginning to wonder and, probably will look into, the analysis of share price change and climate change disasters around major economic areas.
Blame Canada.
 
Here’s a little real story:
So I’m on vacation in Europe with zero intentions of trading TSLA. No computer just my iPhone. Plus I’m super bullish
Then the unthinkable happens: TSLA goes up 9 days straight in a row as of last night (10 today)
Plus it had a black candle yesterday. So i sold all my TSLA last night and bought NVDA afterhours : was up till 2 AM local time buying NVDA which all my buying pushed up afterhours price: all this on my cell phone
Woke up this morning and US market does not open till 3.30 PM local time. I was in a restaurant on my cellphone when I sold all my NVDA at market open and went 100% cash expecting TSLA to drop so I could buy it back cheaper. Within 30 minutes I realized that I was wrong. I had sold all my TSLA yesterday at $223.25 and this morning it was flirting with $230. As soon as TSLA hit $231 I knew it was now or never. My 3 options were:
#1 buy back all my TSLA about 4% higher
#2 go Way DITM December 2025 like $25 strikes
#3 go all in TSLL
I chose option #3 but was not sure if daily trading volume could handle all my buying without pushing up the price way too high on myself. Well there was only one way to find out
So for next 2 hours straight there I was walking behind my wife on the streets of Budapest with no idea where I was going frantically placing buy orders for TSLL for a very large position overall. All this on my iPhone!
I completed all my buying just in time before stock shot up
Moral of story: If I’m wrong I immediately change my mind and do what it takes to make money rather than despairing over 4 to 5% here or there
There are folks who cannot handle buying back a stock much higher than what they sold it at
Not me
Not trading or investing or financial advice
You, my friend, are a psychopath. A very rich one ;-)
 
I don't know if it's helpful, but let me channel my inner @StealthP3D for those "younger", post-2020 investors.
I bought Tesla in the late 2015. I didn't know anything about the market, options, etc, and I still don't.
I bought the story that Tesla was selling: a company leading the energetic transition in front of climate change. One single company leading multiple fronts of this transition. This forum helped me all these years, as it does to all of us.

Every time I tried to be smart with trading, I lost. Few shares, but still lost. Even if I sold well, I didn't re-buy well.
But, moreover, every time Tesla rallied, it was at a really, really unpredictable moment. It seems like random.
We expected many rallies along the years, we assumed there were many catalysts, and dozens, maybe hundreds failed. Then, out of the blue, in a pandemic, Tesla rallied 11x.
Don't know about this time, but nobody saw this rally coming. We "saw" a lot of others coming, but didn't happen.

Long story short: just hodl, ffs. TSLA is extremely unpredictable, especially on the upside. We saw that multiple times.
Don't go 100% in if you want other money to play with with other more reliable stocks. If you play with Tesla, just know it's likely you will have regrets. Maybe some wins, but also some losses. I personally prefer to be an average investor but get that one big win.
 
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I don't know if it's helpful, but let me channel my inner @StealthP3D for those "younger", post-2020 investors.
I bought Tesla in the late 2015. I didn't know anything about the market, options, etc, and I still don't.
I bought the story that Tesla was selling: a company leading the energetic transition in front of climate change. One single company leading multiple fronts of this transition. This forum helped me all these years, as it does to all of us.

Every time I tried to be smart with trading, I lost. Few shares, but still lost. Even if I sold well, I didn't re-buy well.
But, moreover, every time Tesla rallied, it was at a really, really unpredictable moment. It seems like random.
We expected many rallies along the years, we assumed there were many catalysts, and dozens, maybe hundreds failed. Then, out of the blue, in a pandemic, Tesla rallied 11x.
Don't know about this time, but nobody saw this rally coming. We "saw" a lot of others coming, but didn't happen.

Long story short: just hodl, ffs. TSLA is extremely unpredictable, especially on the upside. We saw that multiple times.
Don't go 100% in if you want other money to play with with other more reliable stocks. If you play with Tesla, just know it's likely you will have regrets. Maybe some wins, but also some losses. I personally prefer to be an average investor but get that one big win.
Well this sounds familiar. Got into TSLA in 2016 / 2017 through my dad's account because I was just 14 at the time. Lmao.

Made a huge mistake and sold when factories shut down because of COVID but got back in shortly after. It cost me a large amount of shares but I never stopped believing in the long term mission.

Tried to do day trading or short-term gambling with options and never won. Had some profits but lost them shortly after. After losing 3-4k on the options market, I cashed out what was left in my gambling account and bought more stock.

As a car enthusiast with a passion for renewables and modern tech, my plan is to hold until at least 2030, buying new shares every now and then.
 
The Eurozone is now officialy in a recession, Eurostat announced yesterday. But it’s a light one so far: 0.1% contraction in Q4 and 0.1% contraction in Q1 (revised downward). Inflation is not really letting up, fueled by huge wage increases (up to 10–15%) and the delayed effects of higher food and energy prices. The ECB is expected to keep raising interest rates. So Europe is doing worse than the US.

How does that affect Tesla? Sales so far this year are tracking much higher than last year. I’m not seeing discounts on Model 3 (which is remarkable, with Highland coming up). For Model Y I’m seeing only small discounts of a few hundreds euros, but most cars are not discounted.

Model S and X is a different story. After the €5k price drop at the beginning of Q2 there’s now an extra €8k discount on almost every S and X in inventory. There’s hundreds of them. Model S Plaid has come down from €139k to €125k and I’m seriously contemplating buying one. But Tesla’s trade-in offer of just €25k for my 5 year old Model S P100D is still holding me back, along with some other things.
 
Here’s a little real story:
So I’m on vacation in Europe with zero intentions of trading TSLA. No computer just my iPhone. Plus I’m super bullish
Then the unthinkable happens: TSLA goes up 9 days straight in a row as of last night (10 today)
Plus it had a black candle yesterday. So i sold all my TSLA last night and bought NVDA afterhours : was up till 2 AM local time buying NVDA which all my buying pushed up afterhours price: all this on my cell phone
Woke up this morning and US market does not open till 3.30 PM local time. I was in a restaurant on my cellphone when I sold all my NVDA at market open and went 100% cash expecting TSLA to drop so I could buy it back cheaper. Within 30 minutes I realized that I was wrong. I had sold all my TSLA yesterday at $223.25 and this morning it was flirting with $230. As soon as TSLA hit $231 I knew it was now or never. My 3 options were:
#1 buy back all my TSLA about 4% higher
#2 go Way DITM December 2025 like $25 strikes
#3 go all in TSLL
I chose option #3 but was not sure if daily trading volume could handle all my buying without pushing up the price way too high on myself. Well there was only one way to find out
So for next 2 hours straight there I was walking behind my wife on the streets of Budapest with no idea where I was going frantically placing buy orders for TSLL for a very large position overall. All this on my iPhone!
I completed all my buying just in time before stock shot up
Moral of story: If I’m wrong I immediately change my mind and do what it takes to make money rather than despairing over 4 to 5% here or there
There are folks who cannot handle buying back a stock much higher than what they sold it at
Not me
Not trading or investing or financial advice
I would have thought the moral of the story would be to never ruin a vacation by watching the markets and trading stocks. ;)
 
As I was checking (just curious) my tax lots today after trading stopped, I was surprised and happy to see my original Tesla purchases from 2013 are now up 7,330% !!! Capital gains last year were a bitch, but thank dog they were long-term.

Damn glad to be a HODLer!
This made me look at my first TSLA purchase in 2013 purchase also, but ‘only’ 3,000% increase!

IMG_4977.jpeg


Which brings up an important point - the SP had already more than doubled that year, yet it wasn’t “too late” to invest. A decade later both investments look pretty darn good.

IMG_4976.jpeg



So don’t worry so much about waiting on the sidelines for the next ‘dip’. If history is any guide, a decade from now it’ll have been worth it to get it early and HODL!
 
I’m just picking your post to respond to, though several before yours are focused on the same core thing: how much money Tesla gunna get!?

People. It’s not about the money. Never has been, never will be. So stop trying to make it about money. (You rightly acknowledged Elon’s sense of fairness)

Tesla’s goal is about saving us from ourselves, not lining their pockets with green. Yes, Tesla needs money to fulfill the mission, but it’s not what drives the mission. Cooperation. Helping. Kindness. Doing what’s right and proper.

It’s no surprise that EVERYONE will get to charge for the same amount. That’s part of the mission.

But I assure you all, whether it looks like Tesla makes money on the surface of the deal or not, Tesla WILL be rewarded monetarily for the willingness to partner and lend a helping hand.
I think this is actually the number one reason why I am all in on Tesla
It's not about the money, but

When it's not about the money and you make lots of money that's even better
 
I think this is actually the number one reason why I am all in on Tesla
It's not about the money, but

When it's not about the money and you make lots of money that's even better
Same thing here.

Stock goes up and down every day. Stock drops by a huuuuge amount and everone panics. I keep calm.

If you do the right thing and something good for the world, success will come automatically. It might just take time.

We are investing our money not just in a profitable company, but in a sustainable future for upcoming generations.
 
Definitely losing a moat.

Hopefully they can take any money from this and make their service not suck.
I don't think Tesla is losing its moat I think they are trapping Ford and GM inside their Tesla moat.

Read the board yesterday and today and you'll see many of the reasons. Here's a couple.

Human nature will make the drivers of vehicles other than Tesla's feel a little funny when they pull into a Tesla charging station. And they may question their decision to have not bought a Tesla.
If you pull into a Burger King to have lunch and all around you is information on why McDonald's is better what are you going to think

The amount of information Tesla will harvest from these other EVS will have huge advantages.Tesla will be harvesting information from other manufacturers but other manufacturers will not be harvesting information from Tesla's. This is a one-way Street (isn't that a moat?)
So many other reasons things are looking really good.

Tesla isn't losing its moat it's trapping everybody else inside, understand this and you won't be tempted to sell your shares. Elon never fails to surprise.. what's next