Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

The GM Ultium thing keeps getting worse. The crazy thing is they were going to conquer the Tesla with 30 models which was a poor strategy when the real challenge is just getting batteries to get a few models to volume.

GM Shuts Down CAMI EV Plant Amid Ultium Battery Shortage

The unexpected decision is reportedly due to a "raw material bottleneck" that is preventing GM from building as many Ultium batteries as it needs.

insideevs.com

Although this sounds highly probable, I still don't fully believe GM that this battery shortage is the reason they closed. Sounded like they were running that factory half mast already and at some point that's a financial drag from capital and floor space for starters.

So for Union sake, (Union question actually), is it possible that GMs closure due to a shortage of materials is not as much an issue with the union as a closure because poor margins? Call me skeptic, but I also didn't believe that entire part shortage era 50% of the time (yes, there was a time, but...).

I see GM and Ford taking very different approaches and only one of them is trying while the other is possibly waiting for better tech solutions to emerge so they can break out in another direction. IDK, maybe they were that stupid to miss on battery supply chain and just could never catch up... really? There's just no trusting GM anymore. Others aren't far behind IMO but I do root for Jim, and I used to be a Chevy person. Blazers were my favorite, not the Bronco. I even forgave Jim et al for the automatic wiper back in the day. It's time to move on now.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681311031505879040

BREAKING:
@Tesla
has secured two contracts worth ~$413 million to install 218 Megapacks in two energy storage facilities in Massachusetts.The two facilities will have a combined capacity of 400 MW/800 MWh.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Although this sounds highly probable, I still don't fully believe GM that this battery shortage is the reason they closed. Sounded like they were running that factory half mast already and at some point that's a financial drag from capital and floor space for starters.

So for Union sake, (Union question actually), is it possible that GMs closure due to a shortage of materials is not as much an issue with the union as a closure because poor margins? Call me skeptic, but I also didn't believe that entire part shortage era 50% of the time (yes, there was a time, but...).

I see GM and Ford taking very different approaches and only one of them is trying while the other is possibly waiting for better tech solutions to emerge so they can break out in another direction. IDK, maybe they were that stupid to miss on battery supply chain and just could never catch up... really? There's just no trusting GM anymore. Others aren't far behind IMO but I do root for Jim, and I used to be a Chevy person. Blazers were my favorite, not the Bronco. I even forgave Jim et al for the automatic wiper back in the day. It's time to move on now.

I believe the Ultium story.

"Part shortage" has become a cliche post-COVID but here it's being used for "unable to make enough Ultium batteries". There's more than enough evidence from the Lyriq.

I think GM is prioritizing based on the least worst PR impact and the least worst thing is to make some Blazers and Equinoxes.

My prediction is that in the fall, they'll announce that production of the Bolt will continue into early next year.

GM is probably wishing they signed the Samsung deal earlier.

 

[unk45]

Autobahn has everything on the 130 toll road.

Drivers on the Autobahn get the F out of the left lane. TX drivers typically do not.

At least the D, NL, A and F ones do, not so much the PL and SK ones on autobahn. None are as oblivious as anywhere in the US. These days there is so much non-traditional-German-style driver training that the historical behavior has changed. Of course I'm sure there are different opinions on that issue.
FWIW, my most expensive speeding citation ever was just after I left Sunday early morning Germany for the Netherlands and forgot to diminish my velocity quickly enough. at 220kph it was EXPENSIVE.

Driving a Model X100 in such conditions I still have had decent range because traffic usually reduces speeds except for short bursts where and when I usually drive. OTOH, with limited access highway speed limits typically 130kph over most of the EU the range diminishes quickly.

Without question Tesla and other BEV makers need to have very long range options for such areas, including much of the western half of the US where speeds tend to be comparable to those of much of Europe.

Drivers tend to ignore the short range of ICE vehicles under such conditions because petrol is readily available. As high power BEV charging proliferates this issue will probably diminish too, but not yet!

 

[Fred42]

The GM Ultium thing keeps getting worse. The crazy thing is they were going to conquer the Tesla with 30 models which was a poor strategy when the real challenge is just getting batteries to get a few models to volume.

GM Shuts Down CAMI EV Plant Amid Ultium Battery Shortage

The unexpected decision is reportedly due to a "raw material bottleneck" that is preventing GM from building as many Ultium batteries as it needs.

insideevs.com

I believe the problem is with Ultium manufacture, but I don't think we know that the problem is raw material availability vs. a problem with design or manufacturing method. They have made so few that I suspect the latter.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I believe the Ultium story.

"Part shortage" has become a cliche post-COVID but here it's being used for "unable to make enough Ultium batteries". There's more than enough evidence from the Lyriq.

I think GM is prioritizing based on the least worst PR impact and the least worst thing is to make some Blazers and Equinoxes.

My prediction is that in the fall, they'll announce that production of the Bolt will continue into early next year.

GM is probably wishing they signed the Samsung deal earlier.

But GM's been talking about Ultium Batteries for a long enough time to have prepared a supply chain if intentions were candid. What may have happened is they planned for lower volume (for the look to shareholders) and underestimated forecasts.

I changed my mind... @Fred42 sold me with a process issue which is way more likely.

It's still a "parts shortage". IDK, maybe SAP doesn't work well for EVs.

 

[unk45]

Sorry, but that Lavender Mist Model S <--- is serial number 29, and it's a P85.

I stand corrected!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

At least the D, NL, A and F ones do, not so much the PL and SK ones on autobahn. None are as oblivious as anywhere in the US. These days there is so much non-traditional-German-style driver training that the historical behavior has changed. Of course I'm sure there are different opinions on that issue.
FWIW, my most expensive speeding citation ever was just after I left Sunday early morning Germany for the Netherlands and forgot to diminish my velocity quickly enough. at 220kph it was EXPENSIVE.

Driving a Model X100 in such conditions I still have had decent range because traffic usually reduces speeds except for short bursts where and when I usually drive. OTOH, with limited access highway speed limits typically 130kph over most of the EU the range diminishes quickly.

Without question Tesla and other BEV makers need to have very long range options for such areas, including much of the western half of the US where speeds tend to be comparable to those of much of Europe.

Drivers tend to ignore the short range of ICE vehicles under such conditions because petrol is readily available. As high power BEV charging proliferates this issue will probably diminish too, but not yet!

Agreed. A solid 600 kilometre range model Y would probably find a market. We would jump on it.

As it stands tesla continues to reduce the range of all it’s EV’s sold in Canada. Weird.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Agreed. A solid 600 kilometre range model Y would probably find a market. We would jump on it.

As it stands tesla continues to reduce the range of all it’s EV’s sold in Canada. Weird.

Not weird at all if it's selling Chinese cars with LFP batteries to Canada so it has more US production to sell to the USA.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Most EVs suffer incredibly at 120km, Tesla is probably one of the best regarding range at higher velocity (i.e. aerodinamics).

The Porsche Taycan is the best that I know of at beating the stated range at high speed. They have a 2 speed gearbox which definitely helps and I would assume they are under-reporting range.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

But GM's been talking about Ultium Batteries for a long enough time to have prepared a supply chain if intentions were candid. What may have happened is they planned for lower volume (for the look to shareholders) and underestimated forecasts.

It's still a "parts shortage". IDK, maybe SAP doesn't work well for EVs.

Model Year/ZEV credit %age/%BEV at max 4/
2023/17%/4.25%
2024/19.5%/4.875%
2025+/22%/5.5%

GM 2022 US sales 2022 2.27M
Overall ZEV markets, 36.56% of sales in 2022.
2.27M x 36.56%
2023: x 4.25% ~= 35275
2024: x 4.875% ~= 40462
2025: x 5.5% ~= 45650

Bear in mind that he 2022 market was very weak and ICEV sales are expected to be higher.

And that's just sales in ZEV states. If they want to sell outside of the ZEV states they need more than that.

Ultium delays seem to be the problem. They have a deal signed with Samsung for production beginning 2025/2026 .
I think they, and others, have lost confidence in LG Chem. The new deals seem to be Samsung, SK and CATL.

 

[Christine69420]

Looks like Tesla is planning to build Berlin Phase 2 and Phase 3 as one large new building:

The large one with the green outline were originally shown as two buildings.

The text talks about new production capacity of 500,000 cars. And a further battery capacity of 50 GWH per year.

Source is Tobias Lindh on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681307074276511745

In addition to the map Tobias writes:

The new production building in the north will be 700x700 meters.It is not known yet what vehicles will be produced there.There will be 3 partial permits. The first includes changes of the current production, a warehouse and battery recycling.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The Porsche Taycan is the best that I know of at beating the stated range at high speed. They have a 2 speed gearbox which definitely helps and I would assume they are under-reporting range.

Range is calculated by running the regular tests until empty and it does horribly on the regular tests, which have a lot of speed variation and are at much lower speeds.

 

[2daMoon]

Ultium delays seem to be the problem. They have a deal signed with Samsung for production beginning 2025/2026 .
I think they, and others, have lost confidence in LG Chem. The new deals seem to be Samsung, SK and CATL.

This is rather surprising for GM, considering how they have always shown such keen acumen in selection of compelling business partners to grow their market share, like they have done with Nikola, and with Lordstown Motors.

It is difficult to imagine how they could have now made a poor choice in battery suppliers. What, with such a sterling history of analysis of partner companies and being able to determine a partner's ability to deliver on their promises prior to commitment.

After all, GM (and Mary) have led the way into the EV transition, and it matters.

/S

 

[Rashomon]

120km/h is ~ 75mph and around here in Texas that's a pretty common highway speed, whether it be due to 99% of vehicles speeding or the actual speed limit (sometimes the posted limit is even higher!). So I would say that range at 120km/h / 75mph is a reasonable target to evaluate range on (vs say, ~100/~60 as is probably the typical max for EPA testing).

Anyone who seriously considers "Autobahn performance" to be the most compelling metric (vs more reasonable ones) is too niche to matter, and there's no reason to design for them unless your brand depends on this niche. (*cough* Porsche *cough*)

Porsche is pursuing an interesting path of manufacturing their own highly energy dense cells, probably at costs higher than open-market automotive cells. They're really going to push for longer range and/or lighter weight for their vehicles compared to mass market car companies, thus justifying their pricing.

 

[petit_bateau]

Looks like Tesla is planning to build Berlin Phase 2 and Phase 3 as one large new building:

The large one with the green outline were originally shown as two buildings.

The text talks about new production capacity of 500,000 cars. And a further battery capacity of 50 GWH per year.

View attachment 957364

View attachment 957365

Source is Tobias Lindh on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681307074276511745

In addition to the map Tobias writes:

The new production building in the north will be 700x700 meters.It is not known yet what vehicles will be produced there.There will be 3 partial permits. The first includes changes of the current production, a warehouse and battery recycling.

That's interesting.

On the cars side that would be Phase 1 of 500,000 and Phase 2 + 3 of 500,000 to go to 1,000,000/year total.

However there has always been considerable ambiguity about the intended Phase 1 in-house battery manufacturing capacity, which so far is making nothing as the 4680 machinery apparently was sent to Austin instead.

The Phase 2+3 battery capacity of 50 GWh/yr would be consistent with 500k/yr vehicles at 100 kWh cells/vehicle. Tesla norms are about 80 kWh/vehicle so either they will be doing lots of bigger vehicles (vans ?); or the Phase2+3 cells will be backfilling Phase1 vehicles; or some cells will go into stationary storage.

Nevetheless there is still ambiguity about the Phase 1 battery capacity, and I think Phase 1 was originally intended to do 100GWh which was always oversized if it was just going to feed a 500k/yr vehicle line.

Tesla opens its €5 billion Berlin Gigafactory, first in Europe

Tesla, Inc has put open its much-awaited sixth 'gigafactory' near Berlin in Germany, after a delay of over eight months. This is the first-ever giga-scale EV and battery manufacturing facility of the company in Europe, making it a significant milestone in terms of its expansion plans to dominate...

etn.news

"On the battery manufacturing front, the plant is said to have an annual capacity of up to 100 GWh to start with"

Tesla's first full battery cell factory will produce up to 250 GWh — roughly the current world capacity

Tesla’s first full-scale battery cell factory, which is located at Tesla Gigafactory Berlin, will produce up to 250 GWh, according...

electrek.co

or

Tesla's Berlin gigafactory will accelerate shift to electric cars

www.cleanenergywire.org

"I think it will possibly be the largest battery cell plant in the world. I think it will be the largest. It will be capable of over 100 GWh per year and possibly over time, it will be going over 200 to 250 GWh. I’m pretty confident that at that point, it will be the largest battery cell plant in the world."

Looking at the footprint/scale of the proposed A107+A108+A120 phase 2 +3 cell plants they seem about the same overall size as the phase 1 cell footprint.

The enlish translation text suggests that the newbuild is A120. If so then that for 50GWh suggests a huge as-yet-unused existing footprint for cell capacity. That is if they genuinely can now cram 50GWh/yr cell mfg into that footprint. Or is it just for pack assembly and with cell manufacturing elsewhere ? But that makes no sense as we know Tesla views the pack assembly stage as being a low value add stage by comparison with the cell mfg stage.

And the vehicle assembly lines are rather spacious. Either these vehicle production lines are going to have a lot of space around them, or the real future vehicle capacity is going to be a lot bigger.

All very curious.

To illustrate that here is a scale comparison of Austin main building with the proposed phase 2 + 3 building in Berlin - the dark green square that is 700m x 700m in the top left. I've cut/pasted everything to about the same scale.

Don't kid me that it can only do 500k/yr vehicles. Even if it is only 2-3 floors tall vs the 4 floors tall at Austin.

 

[AudubonB]

I am quite intrigued at that un-numbered corridor running the E-W breadth of the building. It brings again to mind (ref. Austin Gigafactory) the possibility of in-structure off- and on-loading of equipment and vehicles.

 

[Fred42]

Looks like Tesla is planning to build Berlin Phase 2 and Phase 3 as one large new building:

The large one with the green outline were originally shown as two buildings.

The text talks about new production capacity of 500,000 cars. And a further battery capacity of 50 GWH per year.

View attachment 957364

View attachment 957365

Source is Tobias Lindh on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681307074276511745

In addition to the map Tobias writes:

The new production building in the north will be 700x700 meters.It is not known yet what vehicles will be produced there.There will be 3 partial permits. The first includes changes of the current production, a warehouse and battery recycling.

One reason factory sites had multiple buildings was to limit potential fire damage. Is fire suppression today such that this thinking is obsolete?

 

[UkNorthampton]

New markets include Turkey* & Malaysia - I expect big deliveries for both (comparatively). Indonesia might be soon. Malaysia & Indonesia Right-Hand Drive as are nearby/connected existing Tesla markets of Thailand & Singapore - so supplied from China, might drain other Right-Hand Drive countries of supply.

*Left-Hand Drive/Made in Germany Model Ys for Turkey, I don't think you can buy any other models of Tesla. Y dominance until 3 refresh?

Daren Yoong @darenyoong
BREAKING: Congratulations to @Tesla Malaysia team for securing 10,000 Model Y orders within 4 days of launch!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681170580610088960

 

[EQC_]

The Porsche Taycan is the best that I know of at beating the stated range at high speed. They have a 2 speed gearbox which definitely helps and I would assume they are under-reporting range.

I believe you're right that Porsche under-reports the range on the Taycan.

Also worth noting is the differences in efficiency of the Model S vs. the Taycan, and of each one's City vs. Highway rating.

Check FuelEconomy.gov, and you'll note:

• Model S, in all its various trims is much more efficient than the Taycan, and the Model S gets better MPGe in the "City" test versus the "Highway" test. Since city and highway ratings are averaged to get the "combined" rating, I believe using 55% city and 45% highway, it makes sense that the Model S would seem to "underperform" its rating with all higher-speed driving, since the combined rating is "pulled up" by the city test.
• The Taycan (I only checked a few trims) is way less efficient than the Model S...but most Taycan trims are rated less efficient in the city test, and more efficient in the highway test. So, the "combined" rating is pulled down by the city test, and it would make sense that in purely highway driving the Porsche would outperform its combined rating.

Also: big YIKES on those Porsche efficiency numbers. Even the 2016 Model X was notablly more efficient than the 2023 Taycan: