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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Seriously, why did the mood change on Gali? He used to be seen in high esteem around here.

Lol, when? That time when Gali's mom came into the room while he was recording a Youtube video? Or when he rankled the ire of Jack Rickard enough to compare him to a 'Mexican Jumping Bean'? :p

Gali's 15-min of fame peaked when Elon said "Let's go to Youtube" on a Tesla Conference Call, then fielded 6 straight questions from Gali. That did result in the rise of Say.com and retail investors questions placed first during the Q&A session. But that says more about Elon's opinion on Wall St. Analysts than any esteem for Gali.
 
Big piece in Time by Walter Isaacson previewing the coming biography. There is an interview video contained within the article.

Great article. This one, about Socrates and referenced in the article is quite informative as well:
 
Tesla’s new manufacturing process will be a big change, and that brings risks. They don’t want a repeat of the Model 3 ramp when over-automation caused a very slow and painful ramp of production. Maybe they decided they needed more time to do simulations and small scale tests of the process before they are ready to build the full production line.

GSP
Perhaps it is more simple. Batteries lead the way. Constrained supply through mid 24 or so could dampen scaling briefly. CT is going to use a LOT of batteries IMO.
 
For me it was a year or two ago when he posted a video where, in my eyes, it was pretty clear he yanked the wheel while driving in FSD, and pretended to save the day by yanking it back. Exclaiming "what was that?".
I think it's a fair post given the macro back drop and Tesla's recent execution post chip shortage/car shortage hysteria.

Show us more of a positive trend and it will get more. Like I said, until Tesla breaks the downtrend on margins, it will be priced lower and lower as the market is extrapolating using such data. The opposite is also true when margins start creeping up.
 
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Yeah, Texas sure hates renewables. :rolleyes:

Oh, wait, they lead the nation 🤔...






As for me, I am embarrassed for those people who keep posting their personal opinions as if they are fact. 🤷‍♂️
Certainly hope your optimism for the future of renewables in Texas is correct and how it plays out...however...

Politics (and many other things we generally do not discuss in this forum) shares an important aspect with investing in Tesla (which we generally should discuss in this forum) --- it is FAR more important to look at how things are changing and where things are heading than it is to look at where things are now or what has recently happened. Being able to see inflection points as they are happening, instead of only after they have happened, is extremely valuable. I can only assume you are well-read on Texas HB 1500 (previously see SB 642), and can contemplate the impact of the law both A) providing severe restrictions on future renewable deployments (even to the extent of subsidizing non-renewables), and B) applying this *retroactively* to existing renewable deployments (including the authority to retroactively remove the permitting and shut down already-built facilities). If not, please consider this link as only a starting point for your research...

 
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Tesla’s new manufacturing process will be a big change, and that brings risks. They don’t want a repeat of the Model 3 ramp when over-automation caused a very slow and painful ramp of production. Maybe they decided they needed more time to do simulations and small scale tests of the process before they are ready to build the full production line.

Yeah, that's not the 'fail-fast' philosophy which has made Tesla the EV champion. They learn by doing; standing around head'n'butt scratching is not the Tesla way.

In particular, problems with the Model 3 ramp were all to do with over-reliance on 3rd-party tool suppliers. The most critical shortcoming was in the early battery module making machines. The original version was made by an American company and were completely unsuitable for purpose. Tesla employees were building packs by hand in Aug 2017, and that's why they only delivered 200 Model 3 cars that month.

It wasn't until Sep 2017 that Tesla Grohmann Engineering division in Germany undertook the task of providing new pack-making tooling that improvements began. There were 4 steps to building the pack, and each in turn had to be replaced by new tooling from Grohman. It took until June 2018 until Tesla finally entered mass production (over 5K per week). Then AJ from MorganStanley said they wouldn't maintain the 5K/wk production rate.

I did notice that Jonas didn't get to ask any questions on the last Confernce Call... :p

Cheers!
 
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Certainly hope the sentiment of your post is correct...however...

Politics (and many other things we generally do not discuss in this forum) shares an important aspect with investing in Tesla (which we generally should discuss in this forum) --- it is FAR more important to look at how things are changing and where things are heading than it is to look at where things are now or what has recently happened. Being able to see inflection points as they are happening, instead of only after they have happened, is extremely valuable. I can only assume you are well-read on Texas HB 1500 (previously see SB 642), and can contemplate the impact of the law both A) providing severe restrictions on future renewable deployments (even to the extent of subsidizing non-renewables), and B) applying this *retroactively* to existing renewable deployments (including the authority to retroactively remove the permitting and shut down already-built facilities). If not, please consider this link as only a starting point for your research...


When it comes to politics all we can do is hope enough reason exists among lawmakers to bring about legislation that fosters growth and opportunity and embraces the transition.

For now, a bill is not a law until a majority vote makes it so.

Personally, I don't trust any of them further than I can throw them. Maybe not even that far. They have earned my distrust.

Over time market forces will overcome the resistance to change as more and more people vote with their wallets and cut the profits from those who have enjoyed uncontested power for a very long time. As their income is reduced, so will be their power. The harder they fight, the more obvious it will become that they're not the right person for the job and they will be replaced.

To anyone watching closely, this all will take a seemingly infinite amount of time to transpire if no outside force (strong public awareness and push-back) affects the course of events in a positive way.

All I can say for certain is that I won't spend a lot of time fretting over something outside my realm of immediate influence. I'm retired, a HODLer, and I own lovely chairs from TSLA.
 
When it comes to politics all we can do is hope enough reason exists among lawmakers to bring about legislation that fosters growth and opportunity and embraces the transition.

For now, a bill is not a law until a majority vote makes it so.

Personally, I don't trust any of them further than I can throw them. Maybe not even that far. They have earned my distrust.

Over time market forces will overcome the resistance to change as more and more people vote with their wallets and cut the profits from those who have enjoyed uncontested power for a very long time. As their income is reduced, so will be their power. The harder they fight, the more obvious it will become that they're not the right person for the job and they will be replaced.

To anyone watching closely, this all will take a seemingly infinite amount of time to transpire if no outside force (strong public awareness and push-back) affects the course of events in a positive way.

All I can say for certain is that I won't spend a lot of time fretting over something outside my realm of immediate influence. I'm retired, a HODLer, and I own lovely chairs from TSLA.
100% agree with that hope. :)

Only part to respond to - for your second sentence...it is a law. Passed OVERWHELMINGLY and signed by the governor on June 9, 2023.

2023-05-28 - Senate - Senate adopts conference committee report (Y: 31 N: 0 NV: 0 Abs: 0) [PASS]
2023-05-28 - House - House adopts conference committee report RV#2213 (Y: 140 N: 1 NV: 2 Abs: 6) [PASS]
 
100% agree with that hope. :)

Only part to respond to - for your second sentence...it is a law. Passed OVERWHELMINGLY and signed by the governor on June 9, 2023.

2023-05-28 - Senate - Senate adopts conference committee report (Y: 31 N: 0 NV: 0 Abs: 0) [PASS]
2023-05-28 - House - House adopts conference committee report RV#2213 (Y: 140 N: 1 NV: 2 Abs: 6) [PASS]

It'll all come out in the wash. ;)

Be sure to use plenty of soap and run the heavy duty cycle.

Once done, you may want to consider running the load back through the sterilization cycle too, just in case there are any lingering nasties left.
 
Wonder if just Hilton branded hotels or all Hotels owned by Hilton. We often stay at Hampton Inns which Hilton owns.
Sorry if this has already been answered (I am a little slow)
"Through this expanded agreement with Tesla, we are significantly changing the landscape of universal EV chargers in North America in an incredibly short amount of time," Matt Schuyler, Hilton's chief brand officer, said in a statement. "Across Hilton's family of award-winning brands, this network of EV chargers will offer our guests even more value with the convenience of much-needed overnight charging access in more locations."

According to a search on Hilton's
 
California charges $150/year, and many other states are doing similar. Does stink if you have an EV that doesn't get driven much - if at all. (Thinking about the 1916 Detroit Electric that is on display at a nearby museum. It only occasionally gets driven around the museum grounds - so might not be registered at all.)
Could add an approximate fuel surcharge by taxing tires. Folks getting 80K out of a set of tires are generally not as hard on the roads as those heavy ones getting 15K per set....just saying if you want to replace the fuel tax in a similar "per mile" fashion, electricity isn't ideal because it gets used on a LOT of non-vehicle applications. Tires, do roughly translate to per mile costs. Plus we could then collect taxes from ICEVs at the pump AND with tires 😉
 
Heatwave in UK, my energy level is low, luckily Tesla have more energy...



According to this timestamped part of Randy Kirk/Brian White video, CATL have dropped battery prices by 19%. Explains the Megapack pricing being reduced.

I hadn't noticed this news, sorry if it's a repeat. Detail in the spoiler.



1:56
um I just saw a reporting this morning
1:58
uh actually this morning this is
2:00
actually probably Thursday but so that
2:02
would have been Tuesday morning when
2:03
we're recording this I saw a reporting
2:06
today as we're recording this that said
2:09
that catl dropped the price of the
2:11
batteries by 19 plus percent

2:16
Now remind me what's the biggest expense
2:19
in any electric vehicle
2:23
batteries maybe oh oh is it because I
2:25
thought in the case of lucid it was
2:27
Peter rawlinson's compensation package
2:29
and yeah talk about oh God a third of a
2:34
TR of a billion dollars how does he
2:36
sleep at night I guess on a really good
2:38
bed on a big pile of cash
2:45
all right so if the catl if this is a
2:49
good reporting and the reporting was the
2:51
kind of reporting where the specificity
2:53
made you believe it which made me why we
2:56
shouldn't believe it but it makes sense
2:58
the cost of lithium has just nosedive
3:01
and lithium was a big part of the deal
3:04
um so and and catl and it's clear that
3:07
CA till has way that all of the battery
3:10
manufacturers right now have more than
3:12
enough capacity for the market so that
3:15
would be another reason to drop price


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China's power batter production growth slowed in July as most manufacturers had already finished stockpiling around mid-June. Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated following the demand side dynamics, which subsequently influenced the power battery production scheduling.

 
Could add an approximate fuel surcharge by taxing tires. Folks getting 80K out of a set of tires are generally not as hard on the roads as those heavy ones getting 15K per set....just saying if you want to replace the fuel tax in a similar "per mile" fashion, electricity isn't ideal because it gets used on a LOT of non-vehicle applications. Tires, do roughly translate to per mile costs. Plus we could then collect taxes from ICEVs at the pump AND with tires 😉
This is good idea, we should propose this to respective statewide lawmakers!!
 
This was a non-sense post. Gali starts by using 12-trailing-months earnings for a GROWTH company (PEG ratio is the appropriate metric when you're investing capital for future growth).

He then piles on by talking smak on 'yields' as if TSLA was a divident-paying instrument like a bond (but fails to mention TSLA YTD increase of 100%).

Gali is not this dumb (he has a business degree); this post is deliberately misleading. He's either accumulating, or swing trading, IMO.

Yes, one of the most misguided assumptions is that EPS (the e of p/e) and total earnings will grow at the same rate. Even with Gali's projected 2040 net income of $500B (which roughly tracks FCF), this will accumulate to about $3.2 trillion in cumulative FCF by 2040. If we assume that Tesla can deploy 70% of this FCF for stock buybacks, they would be able to retire 2/3 of the shares outstanding, at an average market cap of ~$3 trillion between now and 2040.

With a $500 billion income (or equivalent FCF) in 2040, and using Gali's 20 P/E ratio, the market cap would be a staggering $30 Trillion. With a 20% IRR, it translates to ~$1.4 trillion in present value.

We don't know Gali's 2030 earnings assumptions, but we can apply the same math to 2030 scenario too.

Screenshot 2023-09-07 at 1.30.43 PM.jpg
 
Lol, when? That time when Gali's mom came into the room while he was recording a Youtube video? Or when he rankled the ire of Jack Rickard enough to compare him to a 'Mexican Jumping Bean'? :p

Gali's 15-min of fame peaked when Elon said "Let's go to Youtube" on a Tesla Conference Call, then fielded 6 straight questions from Gali. That did result in the rise of Say.com and retail investors questions placed first during the Q&A session. But that says more about Elon's opinion on Wall St. Analysts than any esteem for Gali.
I think the best was when he went on CNBC and debated against Toilet boy. They asked Gali how many shares he owned and he said something like >100. 🤣
 
Schwab completed the absorption of my TD Ameritrade account this past weekend. Now if I review my portfolio, I get a glaring "F" rating on my TSLA investment. I never asked them what they thought.
So while we're on the subject of unsolicited advice, Schwab and JP Morgan get negative ratings from me for their F'n advice.

The arrogance and mendacity of Wall Street is breathtaking...

*edited for accuracy
 
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Could add an approximate fuel surcharge by taxing tires. Folks getting 80K out of a set of tires are generally not as hard on the roads as those heavy ones getting 15K per set....just saying if you want to replace the fuel tax in a similar "per mile" fashion, electricity isn't ideal because it gets used on a LOT of non-vehicle applications. Tires, do roughly translate to per mile costs. Plus we could then collect taxes from ICEVs at the pump AND with tires 😉
It's not actually the weight on the tires. Semi tires get up to 350,000 miles and carry a lot more load than any passenger tire. It's the marketing effort over the years to have lower and lower aspect ratio tires that has killed tire life.