Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

What would be the best strategy to crush wall street BS?

One strategy might be to deliver a steam of good “news”, but not anything to necessarily move wall street (financial perspective). Then release sales or margins or something $$$ and POOF!

As most believe they might come up short on Q3 deliveries, now IDK. Could you imagine how freaking good Burnt Hair would smell?

Risk is losing some of their workforce as Teslanaires, but with UAW posting $45 Tesla wages every hour, they’re gonna want something. Most deserving!

 

[Drumheller]

Maybe. I get an impression that Elon doesnt like to mix investor stuff with product stuff. He often refuses to answer questions on earnings calls that are related to new product announcements.
Also he LOVES the cybertruck. I think he wants to announce it to the world, not wall st. Looks like it isn't going to be today, but it HAS to be soon. We have seen too many of these things on the road, with different wraps, in different locations, hauling, towing, coming back from crash tests... and we have seen paperwork at service centers that indicates they are ready for the CT.
I REALLY think its this week

I still think Oct 1st, which is Sunday, the first day of next week.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see another stock price fake out this week. The price rises during the week and then sharply falls on Friday into close. What does max pain point to for options? The tail continues to wag the dog.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706336242562936889

1 week to find out!

 

[Drumheller]

What would be the best strategy to crush wall street BS?

One strategy might be to deliver a steam of good “news”, but not anything to necessarily move wall street (financial perspective). Then release sales or margins or something $$$ and POOF!

As most believe they might come up short on Q3 deliveries, now IDK. Could you imagine how freaking good Burnt Hair would smell?

Risk is losing some of their workforce as Teslanaires, but with UAW posting $45 Tesla wages every hour, they’re gonna want something. Most deserving!

Same strategy to peacefully change govt

Step 1. Become a trillionaire
Step 2. Buy all of the politicians and wall street movers
Step 3. Use their corruption to make them behave in a way you see as emulating an honest system.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT, check out the high tide in Florida today (Airbnb). I bet they all say this is normal. (Wasn't this way in the 70’s that I recall… maybe it’s some supertide?) Looks like blocks were added for another 8”. Love this area, (New Port Richey) I just wouldn't buy and don’t want stilts either. Sad.

Edit… but I did see about 3 Teslas IN TOTAL (besides at the chargers) while here for the whole week. There is hope! /s

Edit again as People defend the Tampa area, Im further North, at a SC for the past 30 min (100%) and only 1 other Tesla pulled in. Been the only one charging most of this time. I was also informed that Tampa and south have different political views which may explain the pocket that Im in.

… Meanwhile I showed this pic to a local. At first they said this was normal and they don’t have a deck like their neighbor. When I said it wasn't this way in the 70’s… the reason was the hurricanes (on a Sunny day). Go figure.

 

[Big Time]

Here's Troys guess, Im looking at Berlin. Is this seriously what they are expected to output? Same as last 2 quarters?

 

[GOVA]

Can somebody enlighten me and provide some sort of reasoning why so many folks spend days trying to forecast car unit production numbers with such high accuracy?

Why is this so much compute time especially now when Tesla has reached over 400,000 units in last 3 quarters?

 

[cliff harris]

View attachment 976969

Here's Troys guess, Im looking at Berlin. Is this seriously what they are expected to output? Same as last 2 quarters?

This is nuts. Whats the explanation for such a dip in Texas model Y? unaffected by highland, and they can pivot to make whatever version uses the batteries they have in supply. Same with Berlin model Y.
Looking forward to seeing the semi added to that table. Does anyone have a good estimate for when that proper semi production line will be complete?

 

[Mengy]

This is nuts. Whats the explanation for such a dip in Texas model Y? unaffected by highland, and they can pivot to make whatever version uses the batteries they have in supply. Same with Berlin model Y.
Looking forward to seeing the semi added to that table. Does anyone have a good estimate for when that proper semi production line will be complete?

Maybe it's due to them discontinuing the 4680 MY? Not sure.

I think Berlin's stagnation in Troy's numbers are due to the workforce issues Berlin has had, holding production back.

 

[2daMoon]

This is nuts. Whats the explanation for such a dip in Texas model Y? unaffected by highland, and they can pivot to make whatever version uses the batteries they have in supply. Same with Berlin model Y.

Um, all lines shut down for upgrades for a couple of weeks may be a factor to consider.

Edited for clarity

 

[betstarship]

Um, all lines shut down for upgrades for a couple of weeks may be a contributor to the answer?

The cooler question will bw how much do the line upgrades enable for growth in Q4?

 

[MountainRatMat]

This is nuts. Whats the explanation for such a dip in Texas model Y? unaffected by highland, and they can pivot to make whatever version uses the batteries they have in supply. Same with Berlin model Y.
Looking forward to seeing the semi added to that table. Does anyone have a good estimate for when that proper semi production line will be complete?

Cybertruck and No

 

[MountainRatMat]

Can somebody enlighten me and provide some sort of reasoning why so many folks spend days trying to forecast car unit production numbers with such high accuracy?

Why is this so much compute time especially now when Tesla has reached over 400,000 units in last 3 quarters?

Because it can have a huge impact on stock price when P&D numbers are released and a massive part of the earnings report.

Arguably one of the most important aspects of Tesla's business today, it's how they make money.

 

[cliff harris]

Um, all lines shut down for upgrades for a couple of weeks may be a factor to consider.

Edited for clarity

Christ I didnt think they were down for that long. I do think troy is pessimistic. There is no way they have line shutdowns, for so long, without it making a major difference to the production rate in the future.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looking forward to seeing the semi added to that table. Does anyone have a good estimate for when that proper semi production line will be complete?

About a year away. Theres a new Nevada drone operator tracking expansion progress in Giga Nevada, and a week ago, they were just starting early stuff like building out a further away parking lot. Not much actual construction is occurring yet.

Heres his latest video:

 

[larmor]

Can somebody enlighten me and provide some sort of reasoning why so many folks spend days trying to forecast car unit production numbers with such high accuracy?

Why is this so much compute time especially now when Tesla has reached over 400,000 units in last 3 quarters?

Time is spent on p&d since TSLA remains highly volatile to any news or information, fluctuating wildly to the down side on 5% change up or down on the delivery/production side. This fascination with numbers on small variations of p&d can be analagous to 'Clu' who just wants another game piece to play with .

But ongoing progress, new product lines, and r&d leading to major pivot shift, such as FSD, optimus, SC network adoption by nearly entire industry remains the core of Tesla, as well as most made in America for local vehicles esp with market makers and legislators purporting an America first narrative.

 

[-=buzz=-]

This is nuts. Whats the explanation for such a dip in Texas model Y? unaffected by highland, and they can pivot to make whatever version uses the batteries they have in supply. Same with Berlin model Y.
Looking forward to seeing the semi added to that table. Does anyone have a good estimate for when that proper semi production line will be complete?

Well, Austin was just shut down for almost 2 (?) weeks. Rumors are to rearrange the whole line (and maybe even add an additional line for MY...)
Then troy might add some time to ramp back up again in Q4..
Berlin was claimed to move from 3 shifts/7 days to 2 shifts/5 days only. So if that is true and they kept the output stable, it would be an achievement (and good for margins)

 

[GOVA]

Because it can have a huge impact on stock price when P&D numbers are released and a massive part of the earnings report.

Arguably one of the most important aspects of Tesla's business today, it's how they make money.

Thanks for your take, which I hate - respectfully.

If Tesla delivers, let's say, 387,000 vs 400,000 'expected' this this calls for "huge impact on stock price"?

This is WS talk. We all know there is much more to Tesla than 'WS - miss' of 13K deliveries. Especially now.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Thanks for your take, which I hate - respectfully.

If Tesla delivers, let's say, 387,000 vs 400,000 'expected' this this calls for "huge impact on stock price"?

This is WS talk. We all know there is much more to Tesla than 'WS - miss' of 13K deliveries. Especially now.

Rage on brother. While virtually everyone on this board probably agrees with you, he is correct that it is reality. If you're actively trading or tracking short term movements, it matters. It's all about time frame and investing approach.

 

[Buckminster]

Oh dear:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706384110216941734