Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

So 85 Kg of Lithium Carbonate per 100 KWH battery or about 187 pounds, sounds a little light considering a model Y battery pack weighs around 1,700 pounds or so, I’m wondering what’s the other 1,513 pounds made of?

I wonder what’s the ratio of that to, say, Iron Phosphate?

Bellow is a generic chart, but it doesn't change much between regular Lithium chemistries, what changes is the volumetric and gravimetric energy densities of the cathode and anode

The Limiting Factor had some really nice charts showing exactly LFP vs NCA, but I don't remember which video

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/public...ket_development_and_lifecycle_emissions_STUDY

 

[SunnylandY]

I'm wondering what today's events spell for oil price and supply stability. I've always thought all it would take is some gas lines and shortages to convert a significant percentage of the "I can refill in three minutes" crowd.

 

[GhostSkater]

Bellow is a generic chart, but it doesn't change much between regular Lithium chemistries, what changes is the volumetric and gravimetric energy densities of the cathode and anode

The Limiting Factor had some really nice charts showing exactly LFP vs NCA, but I don't remember which video

View attachment 980462

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/public...ket_development_and_lifecycle_emissions_STUDY

Too late to edit, but most cell aren't aluminum on the housing, they are usually some form of steel

 

[GOVA]

Too late to edit, but most cell aren't aluminum on the housing, they are usually some form of steel

Galvanized stamped steel?

 

[Knightshade]

I'm wondering what today's events spell for oil price and supply stability. I've always thought all it would take is some gas lines and shortages to convert a significant percentage of the "I can refill in three minutes" crowd.

Do you mean Hamas and Israel?

Neither export any significant amount of oil at all AFAIK.

In 2022 at least the US was a net exporter of oil... and of the stuff we DO import like 2/3rds comes from the Americans (mostly Canada, followed by Mexico and a bit from Columbia). Only 12% of imports come from the middle east (mostly Saudi Arabia followed by Iraq).

 

[SunnylandY]

Do you mean Hamas and Israel?

Neither export any significant amount of oil at all AFAIK.

In 2022 at least the US was a net exporter of oil... and of the stuff we DO import like 2/3rds comes from the Americans (mostly Canada, followed by Mexico and a bit from Columbia). Only 12% of imports come from the middle east (mostly Saudi Arabia followed by Iraq).

Historically oil markets don't like unrest in the ME. Will big exporting Arab countries side with Israel if the West gets involved?

 

[Knightshade]

Historically oil markets don't like unrest in the ME.

Sure... I could see it increasing the PRICE of oil futures some.... but that wouldn't change supply and thus no lines to fill up with gas or anything of the sort... just potentially higher pump prices.

Which is good for EVs, but not to the degree implied.

Will big exporting Arab countries side with Israel if the West gets involved?

No... but they're not going to take up arms either way so again not sure how it'd matter to supply?

 

[TSLA Pilot]

You sure must honk your horn a lot.

Nope. Very, very rarely actually, as a result of prudent driving.

HOWEVER, when one DOES need to use the horn, having it in EXACTLY the same location every friggin' time would do wonders to help make it actually useable . . . but our own self-taught rocket scientist CEO somehow failed to grasp that basic Human Factors Engineering principle.

As it stands now, the new MS/MX horn is only functional in a few conditions when it should be functional in ALL conditions, a surprising and consistently exasperating safety issue.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The Cybertruck that is up for auction is currently at $200k.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710808907537334348

 

[EQC_]

Nope. Very, very rarely actually, as a result of prudent driving.

HOWEVER, when one DOES need to use the horn, having it in EXACTLY the same location every friggin' time would do wonders to help make it actually useable . . . but our own self-taught rocket scientist CEO somehow failed to grasp that basic Human Factors Engineering principle.

As it stands now, the new MS/MX horn is only functional in a few conditions when it should be functional in ALL conditions, a surprising and consistently exasperating safety issue.

I thought somebody mentioned it here...but maybe I read it elsewhere.

Basically:
People often honk the horn when they sense a potential front-end accident happening. And, in the industry-standard design, the airbag explodes out of the horn region of the steering wheel. If hands are there mashing the horn, and an airbag-deploying crash occurs, severe arm and hand injuries are just about guaranteed.

So, while Tesla's alternate design on the S/X may not be perfect, it may have been intended, and succeeded, in improving this problem.

Your statement of Tesla's solution creating a new problem is valid...and perhaps they will eventually find a solution that fixes both problems.

At this point in time, the current design should be viewed as shifting the balance between "risk of hands and arms being badly broken" and "risk of driver can't always honk the horn on the first try." I have exactly zero statistics related to how often a horn honk prevents an accident...but that figure would help to define the relative magnitudes of those two risks and therefore the value of Tesla's S/X design.

 

[betstarship]

Well, after a whirlwind year+ since this post:

If my opinion counts for anything, I think we're all personally in a race condition:

human progress vs. fighting against the limits of our environment

Context: Since the start of the industrial revolution, we've seen a remarkable amount of progress in human productivity and wellness. People are living much longer, population is growing quite a bit (until recently...), wealth is more freely available and not just available for a very small percentage of the population. All since the start of the industrial revolution.

https://www.theactuary.com/general-features/2012/08/2012/08/20/planet-under-pressure

World population, comparison of different historical sources

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.

ourworldindata.org

Human history, in one chart

Almost all the gains in human well-being in history happened since the Industrial Revolution.

www.vox.com

A meaningful life is becoming more and more easily reachable for any newborn. Unfortunately, this progress is coming up against the limits of the environment, Earth, our species is in. Here's a timeline of tracking climate change. I think Elon Musk knows and read into this and is pushing humanity than letting it falter and fall apart. Maybe many people know this. Hence, BUILD. Keep on building. Get off the planet; meanwhile, make it SUSTAINABLE.

I was all-in on Tesla as a result. I've grown to be all-in on Musk too. He's our best applied engineer.

We seriously just need to get to Mars...and continue to build out of this. Any one else have a difficult time realizing that we have an Elon Musk around at the same time we need an Elon Musk around? Dude provides hope.

 

[betstarship]

As a follow-on:

Three wild speculations from amateur quantitative macrohistory

lukemuehlhauser.com

How big a deal was the Industrial Revolution?

lukemuehlhauser.com

Both are worth reading under the guise of all the manufacturing innovation going on thanks to Tesla. It might be rough right now, but think of how awesome this is going to continue to feel as we approach past the next 2-3 years?

Hopefully, its not all just hubris on our parts to out innovate our environment.

 

[Nrkl]

Well, after a whirlwind year+ since this post:



We seriously just need to get to Mars...and continue to build out of this. Any one else have a difficult time realizing that we have an Elon Musk around at the same time we need an Elon Musk around? Dude provides hope.

You do understand that in Mars we are starting off from a much more hostile environment than we could ever get the earth into being

 

[2daMoon]

You do understand that in Mars we are starting off from a much more hostile environment than we could ever get the earth into being

How bad can it be?

They don't have Mainstream Media FUD or the SEC on Mars, right?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The Cybertruck that is up for auction is currently at $200k.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710808907537334348

sold for $400k

 

[insaneoctane]

The Cybertruck that is up for auction is currently at $200k.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710808907537334348

It's just like buying a car from a dealer....

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nah. There’s a vendetta and a whole bunch of other things.

I’m privy to some new information about stuff I suspected (and others here have suspected), now entirely confirmed. Sorry, can not share details at this time. Let’s just say that the size of your account opens doors and gives access to people and resources otherwise not available to us plebes. They accidentally let a plebe enter and showed their hand. I may have told them to stuff it.

Is it time yet?

 

[Maarten]

Good development in The Netherlands.
The government is definitively allocating 416.6 million euros for the installation of batteries at large solar parks and solar roofs.

Tl;dr: (translated from Dutch):
There will be a subsidy per kilowatt hour of delayed solar energy. According to Minister Rob Jetten for Climate and Energy, the use of batteries at large solar parks on land and roofs makes it possible to 'postpone the delivery' of solar energy, so that it can be used better.
Research agency CE Delft expects that the 416.6 million euro subsidy is expected to result in the installation of 160 to 330 megawatts of battery power.
Minister Jetten emphasizes that batteries can play 3 roles in the energy system.
'Firstly, batteries can contribute to security of supply by providing occasionally adjustable power to maintain a balance of supply and demand on the grid.
Secondly, private parties can use batteries for commercial reasons to make use of the difference in price for electricity at different times.
Finally, batteries can play a role in preventing or solving grid congestion.'

Now my hope is that the Dutch government will finally show insight that their plans with hydrogen are going nowhere. But the lobby by old oil is strong...

Added personal note: it has already been calculated that for this 232 megapacks for a price of $368M could be bought in California. For that 447.1MW of power and 894MWh of batteries per Q4 2024 would be obtained, installation costs included. Unknown, however, what the price for that would be in The Netherlands.

 

[Skryll]

sold for $400k

So what's the resulting yearly registration fee at the DMV going to be , $6400?

 

[betstarship]

You do understand that in Mars we are starting off from a much more hostile environment than we could ever get the earth into being

Well, I was saying that because of all the technologies the Apollo space program brought into the world:

https://www.npr.org/2019/07/20/742379987/space-spinoffs-the-technology-to-reach-the-moon-was-put-to-use-back-on-earth

Home | NASA Spinoff

spinoff.nasa.gov

Think what Mars is already doing so far thanks to Elon Musk and teams? ...and what it'll no doubt do in the future, if we continue to try to get to Mars and succeed in it!