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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I heard it's the banks but would like better info... this was from an actual bank lender in retail solar loans. This may have changed in the past couple years, and installation is also messy since it's case by case.

Home Solar Costs: (Still?)
1/3 Product​
1/3 Bank​
1/3 Install​
Since solar energy is free once the capital costs are accounted for, its like printing money. So may be that's why they banks get involved, just saying.
 
EVs have been politicized for a looong time. Atleast since the GM EV1 days. Heavily politicized since 2010 ...
Agreed. And it seems instructive to me that the current big worldwide political/war disruptions that are flaring up are in Russia ("gas station with rockets"), the Middle East (gas station with repressive governments?) and the USA (a massive oil/gas producer since fracking came around, sorry, "no comment" on the gov't here). All this, right around the time global EV sales cross 10%, a widely recognized tipping point of inevitability in technology S-curves. Some major oxen have been gored, and it seems clear to many major incumbent forces that the goring cannot be stopped, but must be stopped.

This transition to renewables is not only being fought in the marketplace, IMHO. It is being fought also right now in the halls of the US Congress and elsewhere on literal battlefields, even if somewhat indirectly. Hoping everyone here does whatever they can to stay the course and push through to the orders-of-magnitude more sustainable, less expensive, less centralized/top-down-controllable future that EVs, solar, wind, and batteries have started to coalesce in our collective psyche.
 
Alternatively to home solar... there's SRP solar farms. :oops:


Pay an extra 1/2 cent per kWh and somehow, magically, it won't be using peaker plants? Doubtful, since they are still expanding peaker plants in Coolidge Az. No trust here with any Utility company (monopoly).

(Edit: The grid ain't gonna be able to handle remote solar farms, not designed for it. Need rooftop solar to ease the grid load!)
 
FWIW (and, yes, some will find positive worth and some will find negative worth, but perhaps there is value in this data point regardless), Ford's executive chair Bill Ford Jr quite openly acknowledges that EVs are politicized in his interview with NYT. Article is behind a paywall, unfortunately, but the part r.e. politicization is in the answers to these two questions:

"Let’s talk about electric vehicles. About 18 months ago, you launched the F-150 Lightning pickup. It seemed like electric vehicle sales were going to take off. But now Ford is slowing production of that truck. What happened?

E.V. sales are still up 50 percent this year, so sales are growing very fast. But we’ve also seen a politicization of E.V.s. Blue states say E.V.s are great and we need to adopt them as soon as possible for climate reasons. Some of the red states say this is just like the vaccine, and it’s being shoved down our throat by the government, and we don’t want it. I never thought I would see the day when our products were so heavily politicized, but they are.

The other is prices. Electric vehicles are expensive. We know prices will come down, and as that happens, we will have a bigger ramp-up of E.V.s. Keep this in mind: The most valuable company that our industry has ever seen is Tesla, and it’s growing. That’s a very instructive point when people say E.V.s are not desired.

Are you concerned about some of Donald Trump’s comments? He just came into Michigan and said that the transition to electric vehicles is going to result in almost all auto production moving to China.

I don’t want to personalize this, because, frankly, we have to pick a path forward and our lead times are longer than political lead times. So we can’t overreact to one bit of rhetoric or another. We have to deal with the most likely scenario, and how we can create the most value for our company, so we are pushing ahead with E.V.s because we do believe they have great application for a lot of people. And once people drive E.V.s, they will see that it’s a great experience."

 
I was trying to understand why US GDP in Q3 was the highest since 2014. What does the US actually make here besides pills and ICE vehicles?
So I looked it up - #1 is oil and gas exports. This does nothing to curb inflation. Are we simply a natural gas rich economy. Something tells me this won't end well.

Oil and gas isn’t even 5% of US GDP. Foreign Trade and manufacturing are not big parts of the US economy either.
 
This is interesting - I thought that Tesla was limited by production of superchargers, but I guess that is not so hard to ramp up.. Yet another revenue stream! Looking at the numbers for how expensive other charging hardware appears to be (from recent bids for US charging infrastructure discussed here), should be possible to get a good margin and still be cheaper. On the other hand, number of chargers will stay quite small compared to cars produced and quite cheap in comparison to utility storage, so not a major contribution to revenue.


EDIT: The Limiting Factor has has a slide on charger cost compared to competition from the Investor Day:
 
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This is interesting - I thought that Tesla was limited by production of superchargers, but I guess that is not so hard to ramp up.. Yet another revenue stream! Looking at the numbers for how expensive other charging hardware appears to be (from recent bids for US charging infrastructure discussed here), should be possible to get a good margin and still be cheaper. On the other hand, number of chargers will stay quite small compared to cars produced and quite cheap in comparison to utility storage, so not a major contribution to revenue.

I have always assumed the biggest obstacle is location selection and permitting. A deal with someone like BP solves for one of the two... would also assume permitting is easier to an established property like a gas station.
 
Interest rates are squarely causing the stock market to go down, says Cerity's Jim Lebenthal | CNBC Television (4:47)


Some selected pearls of wisdom:
  • it's not wars in the middle East or Ukraine (wars are likely to be temporary and do not cause the Market to go down),
  • it's not the circus in the House of Representatives,
  • it's not Tech CEOs being cautious on Earnings Calls,
  • it's The FED and interest rates, and how long they will be high,
  • it's also about the labor market,
  • that's why tomorrow's Jobs numbers matter
Cheers to the Longs!
 
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Oil and gas isn’t even 5% of US GDP. Foreign Trade and manufacturing are not big parts of the US economy either.
Exports, as I said. We make and sell oil. That's fueling the boom. Bad news IMO.

"Trade In July 2023, the top exports of United States were Refined Petroleum ($9.44B), Aircraft Parts ($8.81B), Crude Petroleum ($8.8B), Cars ($5.51B), and Commodities not elsewhere specified ($5.45B)."

Source is AI from my browser. 🤷‍♂️
 
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We gonna see TSLA under 190 this year?
I’m itching to buy another couple hundred shares…. Been buying since 2013 and missed some chances taking HUGE profit…but looking at long range predictions I’m still liking where things are 👍
I think so. Technically, we've lost the support of the recent trend line. Could retest previous low. I'm not calling that, I'm just saying it could happen. I am calling 160-170.
 
BP purchases $100 million of Tesla Superchargers.

This news was mentioned above but I wanted to make sure people see it. Here's an article. This is a first that another charging network is going to be using superchargers.

 
Surveys show Tesla shoppers are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans.

I think that's been true so far. I just worry that this will change because of the political rhetoric in the presidential campaign.

Maybe the Cybertruck will be the car that everyone agrees is awesome. Then all of us from sea to shining sea can hop in the bed of a CT and sing Kumbaya.
 
I actually think this political chart would be the same if we replaced the X axis with income. Tell me I'm wrong.

I just need some numbers to prove this, but check this out - the order is nearly identical. This discussion is not political, it is class and income based. The relationship to politics is an indication of another symptom.

This is also intuitive because EVs are less affordable initially, which is why Tesla lowers prices AND did their part to control Supercharger costs.

1698345685883.png

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