I think you are missing the spirit of Gigapress's message. The car loan might be marginally lower due to dramatic cut in Telsa pricing, but overall the purchasing power of the consumer for luxury or premium items has come down due to inflation (and interest rates) and people are more cautious now.
This seems goalpost movey? His
literal message was Elon claimed the monthly payment on the Y was about the same after the price cuts due to higher loan rates... and he quotes Elon saying
exactly that thing.
That message is factually untrue, and I'd hardly call an ~18% cheaper payment "marginally lower"
See below for discussion on the "broader economy" perspective- which I largely agree with.
Elon might've been referring to this from Sam Korus, I suspect Sam used 2019 prices when MY configurator opened up
See, THAT is a much better explanation.
Mind you, using 2019 #s makes little sense when trying to discuss the idea you had to lower prices to maintain and increase sales, given 2021 and 2022 sales, with HIGHER monthly payments, were all much higher than 2019 sales at the prices nearer todays- but at least it lets us explain Elons claim as simply copying someone elses flawed homework and not understanding how a 5% increase in interest doesn't equal a 25% price cut in terms of the payment.
Overly simplistic analysis.
It's a simplistic claim, it doesn't need complex analysis to disprove.
This depends on the precise time period of comparison, which Tesla did not specify when making those comments.
His words were "remained constant"-- it hasn't though. It went up a fair bit in late 21 and especially 22... then it dropped a bunch throughout 23. That's not constant at all. So over the entire time period it was up and down. As to what time period is relevant my thoughts below:
Comparing the peak price to the current price is the most extreme possible point of comparison.
Sure. But the context was to suggest the car, to a consumer, had never actually gotten cheaper over time. That due to loan rates the big recent price cuts weren't really "cuts" to the customer. The narrative being given was trying to explain the huge price cuts this year as just keeping the net cost to customers in line.
But as the simple analysis shows, that's not so. The monthly is ~18% lower today than it was at the start of this year.
. On an inflation-adjusted basis that means it's cheaper now, but also the supply is higher and we know there's always going to be a long-term trend of increasing affordability as years pass from original early deliveries.
To be fair- SOME of us knew that.
LOTS of others kept insisting Tesla would magically maintain the crazy high margins of past years forever, with EPS projections going up 50-100% a year for the rest of the decade.
The details are obscure regarding exactly how and why Tesla had been managing their pricing strategy, but the price chart does not perfectly correlate with credit market changes over the same time period, which demonstrates that there have been other factors at play.
It doesn't remotely correlate with credit markets. As others noted here the Tesla price on these is quite close today, with expensive credit, as it was in 2019 with cheap credit.
So this again seems to be as someone else suggested Elon saw a tweet claiming net price of the loan was the same today and just repeated it on the call without checking any numbers.
The relative absence of the gas price effect this year may explain part of the remaining decline in demand that can't be explained by tight credit conditions. As
@cliff harris stated, the sustained high cost of gas (and I would add diesel, petrochemicals, food and everything else that inflates with higher oil prices) is reducing the amount of loan payment people can afford in the first place.
I agree there's perfectly reasonable macro reasons you might need to adjust price such that your monthly to your custom is significantly lower than it was a year ago-- but that wasn't the argument Elon was making.
Due to vertical integration, Tesla owns their entire global sales and distribution network, along with all of the juicy data that comes with that. Also, the CEO owns one of the largest social media/advertising/consumer sentiment platforms in existence, along with all of the juicy data that comes with that. Tesla employs full-time analysts whose job is understand demand and make forecasts based on this data. They should have the right answers to this question, and I am inclined to believe that company leadership is correct in saying that affordability is the main problem at this point, and it has been severely exacerbated by the credit market and general inflation.
See above, I think that's a TOTALLY reasonable and likely argument. It's just not the one that was given on the call and the one with which I took issue because it ain't factually true.[/QUOTE]