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Talk between Sam Altman and board collapsed, he won't return as CEO of OpenAI: https://x.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1726477811953922079

And Microsoft is trying very hard to avoid being dragged down by the OpenAI debacle: https://x.com/realMeetKevin/status/1726475100512489519

With all these upheaval in the tech world, don't you find it fortunate that you invested in a tech company without all these drama?
"“Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,” the letter says. About 667 people have signed the letter. OpenAI has about 770 employees."

Early this morning, the count was ~500 who signed. Now it's 667.

I suspect things will keep developing today or over the next few days.
 
For some unfathomable reason many people have unquestioned faith in the accuracy and methodology of brand ratings, and even more when viewing metrics such as 'intention to buy'. Along with the vaunted 'unaided recall' core metric these all have several major problems.
-first, selection bias. During the last two decades every polling category from political voting intentions to favorability ratings and intentions has suffered large declines in correlation to actual observed behavior. More and more people decline to respond to surveys and those who do are increasingly likely to represent outliers.
-second, survey design flaws. As more surveys are conducted by people who have no background or qualifications in survey design and control, sampling errors grow even more than they already have due to selection bias because there is so little effort to design surveys to limit the errors.

Favorability ratings are immensely popular for the same reasons that political polls are so popular. Quoting some poll always is tittilating. Often they really have minimal value.

In our present TMC investor dilemmas many of us are compelled to evaluate personal behavior of a given CEO because if we listen to neighbors and ask if they've changed their view due to an obnoxious post somewhere, surprise!, they've often say they have done that. Such events are the third bane of survey research, Confirmation Bias. Here on TMC the purveyors of confirmation bias often become banished to ply their rumors elsewhere.

I decided to post this three part description because we are at great risk in this thread of losing sight of actual facts. In the present day ephemeral 24 hour news cycle we seek stimulation continuously. After the 24 hour continuous steaming news was invited by Ted Turner the world has devolved towards continuous exacerbation of controversy. We have, in this thread, fallen victim to that habit. Otherwise intelligent people are preoccupied with the latest tweet, even those that have a half-life of a few minutes.

If we are to be useful to each other we need to work hard to 'sort the wheat from the chaff'. We need to learn what data is real, what is imaginary and what is real but irrelevant. Gratuitous political commentary, personal revulsion or admiration of a given CEO is really not very helpful.

Actual business decisions and actual facts are always helpful. Actual buyer and driver performance is also relevant, as is everything financially demonstrated.

History is plentifully supplied with highly accomplished people who were deeply flawed. After all, as people become more and more successful their flaws become more visible. In my own life I have been lucky enough to meet and deal with a large number of highly accomplished people. I have tried to recall one such person who displayed conventionally conforming behavior. I cannot find one. We all here are involved deeply with one such individual.

Please stop trying to find relevance in odd behavior that is not directly tied to performance of our investments in TSLA. Please stop quoting ill-designed surveys, polls and anecdotes all of which exacerbate perceived risks.

We have many real risks, real opportunities and factual issues. Those are hard work to find, understand and explain. For me personally, I benefit enormously when someone corrects me when I make a factual error. Several people regularly do that; I owe them a debt of gratitude because that helps me learn. I hope we can enhance the exchange of solid information exchange, from which we can learn. That is why I've been here since 2014.
More specific to Tesla brand damage is the longitudinal Bloomberg Businessweek survey
of 7000+ Model 3 owners. I was one who participated; by nature it was self-selective.

Of particular note is the Sankey flow diagram mapping "Would buy another Tesla again"
vs. "Opinion of Elon Musk", from this summary article:


The full writeup is enlightening, but requires registration:

 
You can't make this stuff up. Nearly spit up my coffee because I laughed so hard!

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois said:

Canceling Cybertruck Would Be A 'Positive' For Tesla Stock, Analyst Says​



Are you sure his name isn't Philippe Douchois?
 
Meanwhile, GM decided against running a Superbowl ad for their EV lineup, after having done so for 4 years staright:

And the obligatory Orwellian spin from the CEO: Barra says GM is in the middle of “strengthening” its EV business, and then it will accelerate further. And also moderating the pace of our EV acceleration in 2024 and 2025.

You Go Girl !

RT
 
Franky, I am getting sick of range bullsugar. No ICE shows its range because of many reasons.

Now, range is affected by everything and they should just stop. If they say 300 units, Gordo will complain he got 294, etc.

True, but range is something people specially cite when considering EVs, so it makes sense to highlight that number.

Personally, I wish they would highlight MPGe more. I don't think people realize how efficient EVs are.
 
Hey guys, I didn't post that chart. Nor did I respond to it directly. Maybe the results mean nothing, but I'm just pointing out that rationalizing the results of that chart to be "good" for Tesla is absurd.
I understood that. The problem is that when quoting something clearly and obviously made up to represent a negative outlook, you repeat that this must somehow be:
"...rationalizing the results of that chart to be "good" for Tesla
...when the entire set of points is intended to make it crystal clear that the 'survey' itself is based inadequately. Of course, as always, FUD reigns regardless of facts. Bluntly, this silly 'survey' has no actual factual results that could not have been written without claiming to have surveyed anyone. Indeed, that may damage Tesla in some way, primarily by repeating nonsense.

Just so you and others who regularly post such things there are a few basic tenets of competent survey results:
1. The sample size and respondent sourcing are included;
2. The questionnaire and/or interview guide is included;
3. Response rate, response methodology and respondent verification process is shown;

Just so you and others know, the sort of survey and opinions we do here is not ever qualified as valid. It is done mostly to entertain ourselves and give ourselves more robust confirmation bias. That is why most of us, including me, find them to be fun. Who does not like to be told that his or her opinions are also held by others we admire? There is some value in that, emotional value.

In this case you @Zaddy Daddy are suggesting that bad and useless 'research' might not be good news to TSLA. Technically you're correct FUD hurts. However, repeating FUD does NOT change the facts.

Let su be clear: Now more than ever, ever more sophisticated and well-constructed false information and data is being posted. Mods are becoming overwhelmed with sorting ridiculously irrelevant things from relevant ones. They cannot be expected to evaluate the credibility of every random unverified quotation.

In short we need some integrity. Integrity, by definition, cannot be superficial. When any of us quote something we need to make sure we know what we are quoting and verify its relevancy. That is work.
That also requires learning how to know what we post before posting it. That is often boring.
The end result will be for us all to have greater confidence in each other and have us all learn more.

As I have said a few times. One major benefit of our group si that among us are people who really know quite a lot about many subjects. Just within the last week I've been clearly and succinctly corrected when I expressed a view on a topic I thought I knew but obviously did not. The corrections I quickly received taught me valuable new information about Tesla technology that I had been unknowingly ignorant about. Now I am happy to know more than I did.

If we are to have more value here we need to be much better and faster to help each other to learn. That process was once easy here but as we have grown we've become a bit complacent.

Now we blather about share volatility, most of us who do probably aren't reading @Papafox who devotes inordinate effort to ensure that we can understand the sources and consequences of daily volatility. We'd have fewer garbage post were his work be more carefully viewed.

Many of us blather about advertising when most of us who do have never studied the subject, much less Marketing and ignore obvious sources to understand what might or might now be relevant.

Then, too, many of us conduct our own version of 'mother-in-law-research' on Tesla adoption rates, impediments to growth and a wide variety of other issues. Those, like the advertising ones, are often titillating but almost never relevant.

Finally there are the complaints I class as 'panel gap' stories. Somehow we've been overloaded with complaints about Tesla vehicles (not so much other products) that either are misplaced or are incorrect. of course Teslas can and do have faults. We really should do better than to take our cues from short seller narratives. Perhaps I am naive just because my three Tesla's have had fewer problems than any others of my 50-odd new cars during my life. Perhaps, but the owner persistency at Tesla has ranked above nearly any other OEM, and that data comes from biased sources like Automotive News and JD Power, both of which depend on auto dealers for much of their revenue.

There are many other areas in which we can do better work to moderate ourselves and reduce the incessant frustration we are causing the people who are trying to help us be more responsible. Please, everyone, help us be better. If we do not we run a great risk of self-destructing. Valuable people have left. More will do so if we do not quickly act to manage ourselves better.
 
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True, but range is something people specially cite when considering EVs, so it makes sense to highlight that number.

Personally, I wish they would highlight MPGe more. I don't think people realize how efficient EVs are.
Range is the biggest question mark for EVs. It's what half the board discusses on a regular basis. It was price as well, but that's been reduced thanks to Tesla.

MPGe is not what people are searching for when buying EVs, most care about how long they can drive before needing to charge and then how long that charge will take. This is more important when towing and the range is reduced by 50% or more. The fact is that most EVs just have smaller "tanks" compared to gas/diesel vehicles and will need to "fill up" more often which takes longer. In my F150 Diesel truck, I could tow my 6,000lb boat 400+ miles before refueling. No one will deliver that in an EV, but 500, which will reduce to 200-250 at interstate speeds when towing was seen as a great compromise.

Adding to the fact that most chargers will require someone to unhook their tow, it adds additional complexities. The 500 miles and the price were the two most googled features on the CT. The lower the range will be, the lower the price will need to be to create demand outside of the normal Tesla crowd.

Edit: The worst thing Elon could do on Nov 30th is to pull what he did on the Plaid + when he said no one needs that much range. He said it recently on JRE, which already made some CT pre-order holders nervous. If they can't deliver 500 mile now due to battery supply or density...just say they are open for it in the future. The range is relevant and why many truck owners opt for the larger fuel tank. Everyone saw the horror stories where the F150L could only tow a boat about 100 miles at highway speeds. The comments that they shouldn't be towing a boat that fast don't help the case.
 
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Government can set taxes however it wants, and there's no broader implication.

A significant reason that these private colleges are a target of some politicians are that they are _non-profits_ but have have very high tuition fees. I don't think it's the endowments themselves that are the issue.

The three major private universities in Maine had the following endowment values at the end of 2022:
Bates College end 2021-2022 FY: $419 million (down from $466 million)
Bowdoin College: end 2022-2023 FY: $2.4 billion
Colby College: end 2022 FY: $1,115,645,000 down 11%
Small fry, though.

Harvard's endowment was $50.9 billion at the end of FY 2022.
That’s not the real reason. Here’s what that endowment does:
"But the school reports that about 70% of Harvard students receive some form of financial aid, and claims that students whose parents make less than $65,000 are not expected to contribute any funds, and that “90% of American families would pay the same or less to send their children to Harvard as they would a state school.”

I can assure you that’s accurate. My kid didn’t go there but did go somewhere with similar policies and even for an upper middle class household, our actual costs were well under the major state university a mile from my house.

The actual reason is a dogmatic dislike of those sorts of universities, what they represent etc. That’s all it is
 
New Tesla ad on Youtube with a response from Elon.

yes, if there are going to be ads these are key points to hit. FUD aside, my friends all think I’m rich because I’ve got a .... Model Y. Lots of folks out there had the Tesla brand imprinted on them when the S was the only car, and just think in terms of @$100,000 pricing.
Reeducation on that is def a good thing, and educating on how large, convenient and easy-to-use the Supercharger network is ditto.
 
True, but range is something people specially cite when considering EVs, so it makes sense to highlight that number.

Personally, I wish they would highlight MPGe more. I don't think people realize how efficient EVs are.
Folks I give my show and tell to don’t care if my long range TM3 holds the energy equivalent of eight litres of gasoline.

But when I tell them my cost for energy per km over the life of the vehicle (so far 5.5 years) is 3.5 cents a km, they suddenly get it.

Perhaps highlight how far a Tesla would travel for the cost of one gallon of gasoline (use average cost of gasoline and hydro, etc etc)
 
I see no problem and no stall. Stock up today.

MSFT surfed the tide this morning, up over 2% on the OpenAI 'aqua-hire'. NVDA caught the outgoing tide this afternoon as Traders realized what this meant for their AI chip business. Meanwhile, TSLA was able to tread water today, but couldn't catch the wave. ;)

S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap

#CompanySymbolPortfolio% PriceChg% Chg
1Microsoft CorpMSFT7.38% 377.267.41(+2.00%)
2Apple Inc.AAPL7.36% 191.481.79(+0.95%)
3Amazon.com IncAMZN3.42% 146.170.99(+0.68%)
4Nvidia CorpNVDA3.23% 504.1711.19(+2.27%)
5Alphabet Inc. Class AGOOGL2.14% 136.230.92(+0.68%)
6Meta Platforms, Inc. Class AMETA1.96% 339.874.83(+1.44%)
7Alphabet Inc. Class CGOOG1.85% 138.021.08(+0.79%)
8Berkshire Hathaway Class BBRK.B1.73% 361.142.21(+0.62%)
9Tesla, Inc.TSLA1.70% 235.601.30(+0.56%)
10Unitedhealth Group IncorporatedUNH1.32% 533.49-2.80(-0.52%)
 
MPGe is not what people are searching for when buying EVs,
That's true, but I think @Chunky Jr. has a pretty good idea. A lot of buyers do want to know if they will be saving (or losing) money on fuel when switching to an EV. So introduce them to MPGe and what it means.

Tesla could start advertising "Government tests say the Tesla Model 3 gets the equivalent of 131 Miles Per Gallon. That means an average fuel savings of about $1000 per year. All for a starting price of $31,490 after federal tax credit."

That makes for a pretty compelling 8 second ad.
 
By now, everybody knows that Tesla has won. Many still have no idea how much Tesla will crush everybody else.

It's been fascinating to observe many go through stages of dying that Kubler-Ross described years ago. Fascinating because what has been applicable to humans worked also for EV/Tesla deniers in all forms of existence.

In any case, FUD generation is easy nowadays so they will continue doing it. Based on the turnaround which I see at one of our Tesla stores everybody else is doomed.

And this is only when we are talking EVs.
@GOVA,
Your avatar is in need of an update.
Screen Shot 2023-11-20 at 4.49.25 PM.png


You may use this one, or similar.
Screen Shot 2023-11-18 at 4.26.08 PM.png


Many thanks in advance. Best regards.
 
More specific to Tesla brand damage is the longitudinal Bloomberg Businessweek survey
of 7000+ Model 3 owners. I was one who participated; by nature it was self-selective.

Of particular note is the Sankey flow diagram mapping "Would buy another Tesla again"
vs. "Opinion of Elon Musk", from this summary article:


The full writeup is enlightening, but requires registration:

That is a really good case, in my opinion.

Bloomberg has had a very long history of such surveys, as had Business Week prior to the Bloomberg era. Of course, as you say, they're self selected, but also Business Week reader responses in BW-covered topic areas tend to select among well-qualified respondents and over-select for those who ahem strong opinions. By virtue of the subscriber base the respondents include people who are nearly all very well informed on both Tesla products and Elon Musk. That group, even though self-selecting, is also composed predominately of social influencers on commercial topics.

In numerous cases for a long time, pre and post Bloomberg with BW, I have used Bloomberg dat for some purposes and Business Week for others. The former, coming for essentially Terminal users (i.e. securities industry) while the latter does a pretty good job of finding middle and higher management people (I skip acronyms here). In every case in which I'ev used such data it was to help to form hypotheses which then could be tested with direct techniques.

Among well qualified people there is no doubt that the general view is that, at a minimum, Elon Musk has continued to widen his deep interests and has become a higher risk to the companies he leads than he appeared to be pre-Twitter. The question of causality and the political polarization so often discussed is rather more difficult to assess, not least because it has become very much more difficult to distinguish fact from fiction; Elon vs some AI-generated FUD. Right now it is becoming difficult to make those distinctions even in subscriber-response limited surveys.

One major reason why I am posting so much on this general topic right now is because distinguishing fact from fiction is becoming so dangerously difficult that credibility of former unquestioned sources is being challenged. if we at TMC do not use all our power to reduce the risk of such errors we do run a high risk of losing relevance.

Anyone who imagines I am being alarmist without reason should carefully examine the state of present day public discourse on any given subject. My concerns are that we are now at risk of declining in the same way. As some fo us know, there are a good number of highly competent and informative posters who have gone elsewhere. Does it not benefit us all to discipline ourselves better so that these people can be induced to return to our Forum?
 
True, but range is something people specially cite when considering EVs, so it makes sense to highlight that number.

Personally, I wish they would highlight MPGe more. I don't think people realize how efficient EVs are.

Absolutely. Especially in colder climates. And because of that we know a bunch of fellow Canuck’s who are holding off on buying a replacement for their Y until Tesla gets the range at least back up to what it was on models a couple years ago. Our two year old AWD model Y even after a little degradation has more range than a new AWD model Y. Not to mention a lot more features that are no longer available. (That’s another story)

JMHO (although I have talked to a bunch of others who feel the same way) but it’s not worth downgrading to a new model with less range and features. The whole thing is kinda weird. Usually newer models are improvements of previous models. Our Y serves us well but although we typically trade up every 3 or 4 years there is no point in doing that with a Y in Canada.
 
That’s not the real reason. Here’s what that endowment does:
"But the school reports that about 70% of Harvard students receive some form of financial aid, and claims that students whose parents make less than $65,000 are not expected to contribute any funds, and that “90% of American families would pay the same or less to send their children to Harvard as they would a state school.”

I can assure you that’s accurate. My kid didn’t go there but did go somewhere with similar policies and even for an upper middle class household, our actual costs were well under the major state university a mile from my house.

The actual reason is a dogmatic dislike of those sorts of universities, what they represent etc. That’s all it is
Thank goodness I went to university 35 odd years ago (after working for 15 years), the world was calmer then...