Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Order now, delivery in 2024...
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If that's true, then Tesla has a huge ramp planned, or their backlog is a lot smaller than we thought. OR they are being twits. So, which is it?

 

[Usain]

And who ever thought the saving grace of a Tesla vehicle would be... "in time it might improve to the point that it is useful." Right now it is exactly what I never would agree with before the reveal. Many people (evidently) smarter than me said it would be a symbol of snobbery. I argued with them that it would be many things to many people. I mean come on Elon had a big canvas. I didn't know he would ignore the huge "trunk". And that is what it is. It is a trunk with a silly accordion door on it.

That silly accordion door provides both engineering advantage (better aerodynamics) and practical advantage (huge lockable, and truly secure, dry storage). Plus, if you get enough snow you can use it for sledding!

Design is always about tradeoffs.

 

[GrandEnigma]

If that's true, then Tesla has a huge ramp planned, or their backlog is a lot smaller than we thought. OR they are being twits. So, which is it?

Had assumed that means deliveries begin then. But fund that wording odd too.

 

[Drumheller]

If that's true, then Tesla has a huge ramp planned, or their backlog is a lot smaller than we thought. OR they are being twits. So, which is it?

I think Tesla has a huge ramp planned, is expecting many reservations to not complete due to the higher prices, and doesn't want to scare people off with a later estimate.

Estimate can change.

 

[Singuy]

I think Tesla has a huge ramp planned, is expecting many reservations to not complete due to the higher prices, and doesn't want to scare people off with a later estimate.

Estimate can change.

The original estimate was "delivery in 2021". We all know how that went.

 

[2daMoon]

I think Tesla has a huge ramp planned, is expecting many reservations to not complete due to the higher prices, and doesn't want to scare people off with a later estimate.

Estimate can change.

I think they are saying that "there will be deliveries in 2024" only they aren't mentioning it won't be delivered to someone ordering now.

 

[SunCatcher]

If that's true, then Tesla has a huge ramp planned, or their backlog is a lot smaller than we thought. OR they are being twits. So, which is it?

I don't know, but I was told it'll be 2 weeks for ours... /s

I'm sure that many of us have come to be pretty skeptical regarding Tesla delivery times... That being said, I think it would be prudent to be ready to act when the invitation to place an actual order is received. By that I mean, you know, funding secured.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Order now, delivery in 2024...
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I don't understand how someone could order now and get one in 2024 when there is a huge reservation list. Are they ignoring the reservations and it is now first come, first served for those who make a real order?

 

[Todd Burch]

My guess is Tesla’s currently at a rate of 130 Cybers per week.

Will be at 245/wk by end of year.

Source: my bumhole.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you order now, you will not get it in 2025 regardless of the model. I ordered a Tri and a Dual about a month after the unveil and I think '25 is the earliest I might get one. Probably '26.

That's not what happened with the Model 3 ramp. Tesla exclusively sold high-priced variants while people with early reservation positions waited, and customers willing to pony up the bucks got theirs early. Eventually, there was no wait if your bought a top-of-the-line 3, and the waiting list faded into obscurity.

Based on history (and good management practices), Tesla will sell all they can to whoever will pay the full asking-price. When they've delivered to those customers and the take rate slackens, they'll lower the price to increase the size of the pool. This is how micro-economics is supposed to work in a capitalist society: "pay the price now, or wait until your price comes up".

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

Assume there's no brake-by-wire... have seen no mention of it.

Given that Brembo was testing their Sensify system on a Model 3 there was some speculation they were working with Tesla and it might show up on the CT...

It's steer by wire, break by wire, throttle by wire, everything by wire. Clearly discussed in the Hagerty video but I think it's been covered elsewhere as well.

Literally everything on the cybertruck from the breaks to the speakers is on the same CAN network running at GB speeds.

 

[2daMoon]

That being said, I think it would be prudent to be ready to act when the invitation to place an actual order is received. By that I mean, you know, funding secured.

Yeah, I fret over securing CT funding every day as I patiently await the next big move up.

All I want to see is a little bitty doubling or maybe a tripling of the SP to get me into the warm and fuzzy zone.

Is it wrong of me to be so focused upon such trifles as this?

HODL Tink Tink
HODL Tink Tink Tink

(not poetry)

 

[dhanson865]

Someone posted this graphic from MKBHD review. Interesting MKBHD says that Road noise is higher than other Teslas, whereas Musk said it will be most quietest Tesla due to the armored glass. I trust MKBHD.

View attachment 995472

MKBHD's review was of a pre-production Cybertruck Beast trim (3 motor), not of a actual production AWD Dual Motor trim. So there are differences between his preview model and the ones delivered to customers.

 

[Usain]

Why? The rear view is up all the time on the screen (maybe only when tonneau is closed?) and local to what you’re looking at onscreen already. Why would showing the rear view way up at the top of the windshield be cool?

Cybertruck’s approach seems different, not worse. It’s certainly cheaper and means less to go wrong.

My 2017 Bolt EV has a rear view mirror screen. It turns out that it's kind of useless because what you are shown looks a lot different from what you see in ordinary mirror mode. It's sort of "squeezed" and hard to make out what the image is showing. It's just the wrong form factor for viewing a camera image.

With rear view on the big screen, Cybertruck can show a clear, crisp image that is properly sized and is actually helpful.

 

[dhanson865]

I could not find a post but any word if AWS is an option on the dual motor? If standard the price is very attractive now in addition to grid tie. Saves on a power wall and you can take it to another home.

The rear steering is a standard feature across all trims.

 

[Usain]

If that's true, then Tesla has a huge ramp planned, or their backlog is a lot smaller than we thought. OR they are being twits. So, which is it?

Nobody has any idea how many will cancel their orders. And Tesla has only a rough idea of how fast the ramp will be.

I don't think the backlog is small and I don't think Tesla are being twits. They are just guessing like everyone else.

 

[WolfHero]

OT from the Cybertruck thread this has become, here is Taiwan's November sales figure

Total sales: 43,566
1. Toyota Corolla Cross: 3621
2. Toyota RAV4: 2102
3. Honda CR-V: 2014
4. Toyota Yaris Cross: 1661
5. Toyota Altis: 1339
6. Mercedes-Benz GLC: 1220
7. MG HS: 1157
8. Lexus NX: 894
9. Tesla Model Y: 793
10. Nissan Kicks 755

Source:
Toyota 奪國產、進口雙冠軍、Yaris Cross 後勢看漲！台灣 11 月銷售戰報出爐 - 自由電子報汽車頻道

 

[dhanson865]

Is Larse suggesting Highland is at full speed?

If you watch the video where he says that he says it like it's past tense as in old news. Like the tone of voice was that it was not only a finished transition but it finished a while ago.

 

[dhanson865]

I was concerned about the CT ramp before the delivery event, now I'm even more concerned. Did you all notice deliveries start in '24? Not now, or December, but 2024? I'm afraid production still might not even start for months. As usual with my pessimism, I hope I'm wrong, but the ramp could be even uglier than what I feared in my previous bear case.

One of the reviewers was told by Tesla that California and Texas deliveries were from the event forward and the other 48 states start deliveries in 2024.

It's only 4 weeks difference for the other sates (+ Christmas and New Years). Not some huge delay.

Maybe you haven't heard but those are locations of existing factories and two of the largest states by multiple metrics. It makes sense to start there.

 

[Drumheller]

One of the reviewers was told by Tesla that California and Texas deliveries were from the event forward and the other 48 states start deliveries in 2024.

It's only 4 weeks difference for the other sates (+ Christmas and New Years). Not some huge delay.

Maybe you haven't heard but those are locations of existing factories and two of the largest states by multiple metrics. It makes sense to start there.

Why Claifornia? The factory is in Texas.