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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Very well said! I am prone to give Too Much Information according to many. You have accurately simplified the reality. Make People Trade!Around about the same time as that, I worked for a UK company called datastream/ICV. Our competitors were reuters and bloomberg. AFAIK at the time, reuters were basically a financial data services company, even back then. In other words they were very *in* with people working on trading floors.
A few years of that, and extensive research since has taught me that there is a HUGE industry that is deciated to one goal:
Make
People
Trade
Big companies make billions from getting people to buy, then to sell, then buy, then sell. Trade baby! Trade! They make money on the orders regardless which direction it goes. To enable this ludicrously profitable setup you need agitprop clickbait (business insider, cnbc, seeking alpha), a complicit mainstream media (cnn, wall st journal), a host of brokers that offer discounts for frequent trading, and 'live news feed' style services like reuters who will give you second-by-second updates that you should trade on RIGHT NOW, before you even finish the headline.
If Tesla were struggling financially, these same people would run enthusiastic clickbait to drive them up, like they do with Lucid, Rivian, so people would buy stock. They pimp the losers and trash the winners, all part of the constant cycle to get dumb money to keep paying those trading fees...
Yes I am cynical, but also I speak from experience. Buy and HOLD. Consider making a trade every six months at most. Its working well for meYMMV
That has been the rule since trading began. It still is.
Haven't fixed the crummy auto wipers then...
Yikes!
I'm ~45 days away per this rate (give or take a few States and favors) with 112796xxx. I'm also surprised Az is involved already. I don't live too far from @SunCatcher in Az who already got an invite. I assume I waited a bit to order (maybe only minutes) which could be ideal here on something so new.Likely the algo isn't 4K/day, but then again here we are. Pressure to accept is also huge with such a long line at the Cybertruck order window, still growing I hear. Would prefer a pop in TSLA before deciding this.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Here's a report on Tesla Energy growth from Gali...
Lots of charts and graphs
and pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one, explaining what each one was, to be used as evidence against us...
You can get anything you want at Elon's Restaurant.
Lots of charts and graphs
and pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one, explaining what each one was, to be used as evidence against us...
You can get anything you want at Elon's Restaurant.
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SunCatcher
Member
Oh come on SOULPEDL, you can do it! Imagine how popular you'd be here in AZ giving all us other TMC members a ride in your new Founder's Edition CT! I'll even let Bandit sit on my lap! PLEASE!!!Yikes!
Likely the algo isn't 4K/day, but then again here we are. Pressure to accept is also huge with such a long line at the Cybertruck order window, still growing I hear. Would prefer a pop in TSLA before deciding this.
Seriously, I can't wait to ride in/drive a CT, but will def wait for prices to come down, and quirks to get worked out. "You first!". "No, YOU first!"
Edit: I see a difference between being an early adopter and a guinea pig.
Seems noteworthy how many here are passing on the opportunity to place a firm order for a CyberTruck. The overall reservation-to-order conversion rate among members of this thread is presumably a far higher rate than the general public (greater knowledge both at reservation time and now, stronger brand affiliation, financial ability to purchase, etc). Only minor anecdotal evidence, to be sure, and my own biases are almost certainly a factor, but it does seem to lend credence to the conjecture that the overall 7-digit backlog will likely be slow to convert to actual orders. Tesla can, of course, somewhat control the conversion rate by adjusting the order pricing, so it will be interesting to see how long they can keep the current pricing and how it adjusts throughout 2024.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
There appears to be a long line at the Wall Street Carnival's Whack-a-Mole booth this morning.
@Papafox says they want to keep the SP below 260 this week and selling has been +60% short selling day after day.
Which downward pressure has been battling against those at the leading edge of therush Green Tidal Wave of buyers wanting to get into the TSLA action for 2024 at 2023 sale prices.
HODL
@Papafox says they want to keep the SP below 260 this week and selling has been +60% short selling day after day.
Which downward pressure has been battling against those at the leading edge of the
HODL
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
You do realize they are only turning down the option to buy the Founder's Edition, not giving up their reservation for their original order, right?
This reference for takers of the more expensive edition is inconsequential to the overall order queue.
As a career early adopter I do not see any difference other than that the guinea pigs never volunteered.Oh come on SOULPEDL, you can do it! Imagine how popular you'd be here in AZ giving all us other TMC members a ride in your new Founder's Edition CT! I'll even let Bandit sit on my lap! PLEASE!!!
Seriously, I can't wait to ride in/drive a CT, but will def wait for prices to come down, and quirks to get worked out. "You first!". "No, YOU first!"
Edit: I see a difference between being an early adopter and a guinea pig.
With Tesla P85D, P3D and Plaid S were early of the specific model but not the cars themselves. I never had much to complain about with Tesla, except collision repair on the P3D when my former friend nearly totaled it four days after i bought it. Even that P3D was impeccable afterwards and did not even need alignment after a major collision.
As general end-of-year comment I suspect nearly all the Tesla complaints are in the First World Problem category with most of the others related to breaking the mould of traditional solutions with teething problems (think wipers, FSD, yokes, etc). The others are usually related to Noise Vibration and Harshness (NVH) which are popular complaints for many types of cars, especially higher performance ones.
The fundamental issue is whether that category of problem is materially harming broader market acceptance. The evidence suggests they really gain adherents and complaints at a rapid rate but tend towards a net positive. FWIW, Model 3 revisions have proven Tesla can attack those issues successfully. Next up Model Y, probably very soon. With Cybertruck we'll soon see if reinvention is really a strong positive.
After all the known new positives are Tesla Energy and Optimus. only third is the automotive side.
...I might be wrong, but I'm comfortable with that view.
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Yes, I fully understand that they are retaining their reservation, but not ordering the Founder's Edition. As I've stated before, I doubt few (if any) will cancel their reservation, as there is *no* real benefit to anyone to cause them to cancel it (the $100 deposit being returned seems trivial). Most will simply delay their order until such time as the {available offering, available price, their financials, and their need/desire for the vehicle} all line up to make them place the order, whether it be in 2024, 2025, 2026, or beyond. It is the reservation-deferring rate, not the (virtually 0) reservation cancellation rate, which makes me certain that Tesla's estimated delivery dates on their order page are actual estimated delivery dates for newly placed reservations (assuming the new reserver takes Tesla up on their first offer to configure/order).
Hence my interest in how long they can maintain Founder's Edition, and how they alter the actual order price after that. Obviously, for whatever value <X> one assumes for CyberTruck *production* in 2024, if Tesla were to sell all <X> at Founder's Edition pricing / packaging, that is a quite bullish sign for actual demand. Conversely, if Tesla loops through the entire reservation backlog offering the Founder's Edition and gets so few takers that they loop back around with original-reservation-pricing, that would be a quite bearish sign for actual demand. Reality will almost certainly be somewhere in between these two extremes, of course...but where between them is currently unknown. Will the first round of non-Founder's-Edition be current pricing but ala-carte instead of only with all the options in the Founder's Edition? Will there be a price cut in 2024 to increase the reservation-to-order conversion rate, and if so, when and by how much? These are the unknowns now, but as they become known, this real-world-example will almost certainly become an exercise in price discovery that will likely be the source of many an MBA case study down the road.
Not so sure about "many" passing it up, but a few yes, and especially if we don't need a Founder's series. Part of my hesitation relates to time-value. I read pages of folks here who did the math on how much they would have been worth if they had invested in TSLA instead.
There are plenty more folks with stronger financial positions than I, so don't be fooled into believing demand is at risk AT ALL. CyberTruck is a new class of vehicle and today there is only one practical choice where value and performance is concerned.
That seems like a stretch. This version is lacking a little battery maturity IMHO. So those skipping the Founders to defer purchase for newer is smart if you can wait a bit. It's the wealthy one-marshmallow type who will dish out $120K on first units. Meanwhile, our Model Y told us that Tesla's are not necessarily an investment that holds value.
Founders only comes with white interior!
That’s enough to make a lot of people wait, right? White in a truck, wtf
I think that is how they are tempering these foundation orders a bit
That’s enough to make a lot of people wait, right? White in a truck, wtf
I think that is how they are tempering these foundation orders a bit
No way they loop reservations on Foundation edition. They have already cancelled the rare cases of people who were able to order two.
They may have changed the total number upward due to demand though (potential reason for the waves of invites that re-enabled certain reservations).
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Terminology is crucial for describing the process. There are reservations, and then there are invitations to configure (orders). The estimated delivery dates are for invitees who have configured their Cybertruck and placed an order.
Every indication is that Tesla are working through the existing reservation list sorting by location and by chronology. It seems unlikely that anyone reserving today will have any possibility of receiving an invite to configure their CT and take delivery within those published dates.
Only those invited, who have configured and ordered, will be seeing their CT in that time frame. Though I could see how Tesla may cherry pick and choose among a few influencers to receive theirs from a direct offer by Tesla. Not necessarily from a new reservation. But, that ship has probably already sailed considering the volume of CT news growing like a wildfire on Social Media.
Agreed. This is a bullish sign.
It is unclear why this would be bearish. First of all, it would take a couple of years to quickly "loop through" the current reservation list offering invites to buy a Founder's Edition. It seems unlikely they will extend the Founder's Edition offer beyond their ramping to some target output. Say, a 150K annual run rate. At which time they would begin inviting from the reservation list and tapering off (or stopping) the Founder's invitations.
Past history for other models indicates pricing will always be dictated by whatever price it takes to keep production balanced with delivery. There doesn't seem to be much more thought to apply to the pricing strategy as this serves the mission best.
Whatever the market will bear without increasing inventory appears to be a good baseline to follow. The goal will always be "more vehicles sold" taking precedence over "more profit made," which is the usual goal for other car makers via dealerships.
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More like the 'camera wipers' ; especially the rear camera with much needed lens hood!
It's wise to remember that low depreciation in nearly any vehicle is a scarce event. Early BMW 3-series, Honda Accord, some Ferrari models (only some, people rarely talk about the ones that lose value), early Tesla. Those do happen but they don't last long and people often lose faith when they stop. I have anecdotes on both sides, in aircraft and cars. The only realistic assumption is for high depreciation.... Meanwhile, our Model Y told us that Tesla's are not necessarily an investment that holds value.
Those who quote statistics keep forgetting that the published histories almost always use the origination base MSRP as reference, but sale prices include taxes, markups and options. The semi-famous Ferrari and Porsche fantastic results stem largely from that fact. So, too, has been the Tesla history.
NO NEW Vehicle is a good consumer financial investment. NONE! Transaction costs alone assure that.
Tesla, alone among OEMs makes direct disclosure of pricing changes to all consumers. All the rest hide behind dealer incentives, salesperson incentives (AKA spiffs), subvened interest rates and, also, frequent publicly disclosed promotion. Then, when making a trade at a typical auto dealer they'll inflate the nominal trade in value and increase the other prices, typically ending with a monthly payment as the only clear disclosure.
So, when we complain about Tesla price reductions we are only displaying how little we appreciate actually knowing the facts. Do we feel bad when our model has a big price reduction soon after we've bought? Only if we did not understand reality when we bought.
Note: All three of my Tesla's had the same conditions, price reductions for equivalent models within a year or so of my purchase. I expected something like that, and as a shareholder I am pleased and very happy. As a customer I am pleased that I had no deceptive practice from Tesla.
Mostly agree, but a slight clarification is needed on the last point. Nearly all large OEM's don't sell each vehicle with "more profit made" as the goal. Most have base models that often are sold below total cost, but if they contribute more than marginal costs, they help allow more profit to be made on higher specification models. Tesla is obviously making much more profit per vehicle on Performance models and models with options for color, FSD and wheels (to name three). BMW and Mercedes Benz are masters of that process, often invisible to customers because the base models are often sold into poorer countries and fleet/commercial use, while not even sold in richer countries. The base models help because they sell all above marginal cost.
Auto dealers rarely cooperate with those efforts without some incentives of their own. They do generally make far more profit on the base madeol because they seem mostly to people who don't understand the F&I (finance and insurance) business.
I do not want to be pedantic, but regularly think it wise for us to understand all the consequences of the Tesla business model, one of which is full disclosure. That does not ever happen with other OEM business models for consumers. NOT EVER! It's even not always clear with fleet sales, but not exactly rare.
I’m seeing a few videos from the electric Viking and others suggesting that the model Y juniper will see as much as 20 percent longer range because of a new CATL battery pack.
So I’m assuming that if this is true it will probably be available in Canada but not the US as US built Y’s don’t use CATL batteries. Did I get that right or is there some sort of technology cross over into US made batteries. I’m not up on developing battery tech so be gentle on me.
Anyway. A 20 percent increase in range would get an immediate deposit from us as we tow almost all the time on long trips.
Happy and safe pre-new year everybody.
So I’m assuming that if this is true it will probably be available in Canada but not the US as US built Y’s don’t use CATL batteries. Did I get that right or is there some sort of technology cross over into US made batteries. I’m not up on developing battery tech so be gentle on me.
Anyway. A 20 percent increase in range would get an immediate deposit from us as we tow almost all the time on long trips.
Happy and safe pre-new year everybody.
From a financial standpoint, Tesla needs to sell as many "Foundation Series" as possible. For customers who have the money, Tesla wants to give them something special. But they don't want to be seen as fleecing customers who just can't wait to be the first on their block to get one.
So "Foundation" needs to mean something. It needs to be something you can brag about. Something you can take pride in.
It could be the case that anyone who placed a reservation before the delivery event is considered a "Founder". And also throw in that they will only allow one Foundation Series Cybertruck per Founder.
Then customers can say to their friends, "I placed an early reservation, so Tesla offered to build me a Foundation edition. And I got all this extra stuff with it."
Customers who can afford the higher price get their new toy faster. And Tesla gets to go through the entire 2 million pre-order list to find everyone willing to pay extra.
Just wild speculation, of course. But that might be how this is playing out.
So "Foundation" needs to mean something. It needs to be something you can brag about. Something you can take pride in.
It could be the case that anyone who placed a reservation before the delivery event is considered a "Founder". And also throw in that they will only allow one Foundation Series Cybertruck per Founder.
Then customers can say to their friends, "I placed an early reservation, so Tesla offered to build me a Foundation edition. And I got all this extra stuff with it."
Customers who can afford the higher price get their new toy faster. And Tesla gets to go through the entire 2 million pre-order list to find everyone willing to pay extra.
Just wild speculation, of course. But that might be how this is playing out.
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