Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

i have a slightly different take at this point in time ...at least with my interactions

I had a friend (car guy) ask me about Chicago SC cold weather event last night ... he knows i have owned a Tesla since early 2017 and I never complained once about cold weather charging ... I think many folks are starting to question these media reports when they have friends/acquaintances that have owned Tesla for many years not reporting these concerns ... folks are starting to wake up the the fake news about Tesla ... i feel capitulation is imminent

I do agree it is taking way tooo long ... the FUD works for a long time and then it doesn't.

As Tony says, it's like gravity. Autocalypse is coming and nobody can stop it.

If you think it's taking too long, look at China. About 1 in 4 new cars is a BEV there. And there is no sign of slowing down. It's taking a little longer in the US, but the growth rate is still very high. This is happening.

 

[ZeApelido]

The following is absolutely not directed toward any one poster, not even the creator of the above. Over the years in this thread I have read many similar words, and doubtless they will continue to flourish. It was the combination of such a prognostication with The Great Gretzky's maxim that forced my hand here.

Rather, then, this is a plea. Do not skate to where the puck is going - rather, skate to where it is going to be going. A second derivative of an action's consequence, as it were.
That 200,000 number presumably includes McDonalds and Wendy's and Burger King and KFC and......===> ∞. What do you think another outfit's...all the other outfits'... response will be when a competitor demonstrates 50% margins? How long do you think it will take until 50% become 40%...30...10...market clearing margin? A: As quickly as a cockroach goes Pop! in the oil vat.

The industry never is going to see that $5bn of excess profits. Never. BUT: the consuming public will see it. The societal problem to address is whether that $5bn boost is greater or less than the societal loss from the diminished units of labor no longer employed flipping the burgers. And scooping out the roaches.

Microeconomics count.

Tesla could absolutely see an excess of 5 Billion in profits from the Bot per year. You are right that as competition comes, there will be price and margin compression. This is simply 1 example of many, many tasks that could be automated. But each year that goes by, the capabilities of the Bot will grow non-linearly and can be sold into new markets.

If the AI scales in that way, the market will truly be supply limited for a long while. Given their hardware / software competency, I fully expect a Tesla Bot factory in whichever market to be COGs competitive. Gross margins will certainly not stay at 50%, but even downward pressure alongside massive growth in revenues can ultimately lead to tens of billions in annual profts while only reaching 10-20% bot market share.

 

[heltok]

You just described a category of AI techniques called ‘Reinforcement learning’.
See Reinforcement learning - Wikipedia

More than a year ago I decided to enroll in a local AI course for experienced software developers, with as main motivation the desire to be able to make more sense of all the AI hype of the moment, and in particular to be able to better assess the capabilities of Tesla in the AI field.
As it happens, this weekend I have an exam for my just completed semester on ‘Reinforcement Learning’.
So far my main conclusion about AI is: ‘It’s all easier said than done’.

Imo Tesla will use a combination of all the techniques.
1. Supervised learning: human showing a sequence and bot is trying to copy/extrapolate to new situation
2. Unsupervised learning: training the model to predict the input, ie the future
3. Reinforcement Learning(RL): where possible a score function is set up(stand up/dont fall, manipulate rubik's cube to right position etc) and trained in simulation/real world
4. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback(RLHF): the thing that makes ChatGPT/midjourney/etc good. Humans score the output, ie was the folding good or bad.

Eventually the robot will outperform these guys:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Beige Book - January 2024​

The Fed - Monetary Policy: Beige Book (Branch)

 

[wipster]

I no longer forecast earnings but I can offer some thoughts on Q4 vs Q3:

Potential Downsides:
- Auto pricing (price cuts continued on certain vehicles in certain markets).
- Regulatory credits for Q4 may not be able to match the robust number in Q3 ($554m)

Potential Upsides:
- Product mix (more S&X as % of sales and more MY vs M3 bring better margins)
- Lower COGS as the record production number spreads fixed costs over more cars
- Lower COGS as certain metal costs are declining.
- Lower leasing (2% Q4 vs 4% Q3). Cash/loan sales bringer higher margin dollars
- Lower Stock Based Compensation as Tesla reduced stock/option grants in Q4
- Energy Segment - Higher sales and margins vs Q3

Neutral Items:
- FX should have small impact (Q4 vs Q3)
- Cybertruck should not have much impact as pre-production costs in R&D now move to COGS

Wild card item:
- Tesla may have sold its remaining Bitcoin in Q4 for a $300m gain. This is a hunch based on an accounting nuance with a new accounting rule coming into effect.

Thanks for your knowledgeable thoughts, much appreciated!

 

[Big Time]

Hoping for Gen3 update and teaser sooner than later. Hoping Elon can somehow schedules his talk prior to the Q4 earnings report. Give it a cool name..... Cybertruck & updated 3/Y launch should make the Gen3 production seem like childs play for these guys. I don't doubt the challenges and don't doubt Tesla will go above and beyond to give the vehicle as much tech as the price can allow. Obviously good news or blowout deliveries or blowout earnings won't move the stock...... so perhaps a shiny object dangled?

 

[Phrugal Phan]

Not investment advice, but I did my yearly Roth rollover today. Hoping I am near the TSLA bottom to maximize the effectiveness of the rollover. Also bought one more share with cash already sitting in my account. I was hoping to buy more in the past year but retiring last summer along with still paying off my Model Y has put a major crimp in my cash flow.

 

[AudubonB]

Tesla could absolutely see an excess of 5 Billion in profits from the Bot per year. You are right that as competition comes, there will be price and margin compression. This is simply 1 example of many, many tasks that could be automated. But each year that goes by, the capabilities of the Bot will grow non-linearly and can be sold into new markets.

If the AI scales in that way, the market will truly be supply limited for a long while. Given their hardware / software competency, I fully expect a Tesla Bot factory in whichever market to be COGs competitive. Gross margins will certainly not stay at 50%, but even downward pressure alongside massive growth in revenues can ultimately lead to tens of billions in annual profts while only reaching 10-20% bot market share.

If I misapplied the $5bn number you posited by assigning it not to Tesla but to the fast food industry, then you have my apology. Nevertheless, that $5bn honeypot - or, more precisely, some 50% margin one - quickly will draw many flies: other robotic manufacturers.
I agree Tesla can - may - probably will have the First Out of the Gate time advantage, but that, too, will recede as competition works its inexorable profit erosion.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hoping for Gen3 update and teaser sooner than later. Hoping Elon can somehow schedules his talk prior to the Q4 earnings report.

Your hope lasts longer than your reading retention. In fairness to you, this was like so 10 days ago...

Elon Will Give a Tesla Talk After the 10K, Probably First Week of February

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Bounced of $212 like yesterday...next week should yield some fireworks, could go up or could go down significantly....

 

[aronth5]

Totally agree. Which is why I think for the next few years Optimus will be limited to doing tasks within Tesla (or other Elon companies) while they prove it out and figure out how to get Optimus to handle multiple tasks. This means Tesla will likely see little direct revenue from Optimus (maybe only from other Elon companies) for the next few years, although we could *possibly* see margins start climbing as Tesla hires less and less people for factory work and bots start working the factory floor.

This perspective is consistent with my take on Optimus. The factory is where Optimus will shine initially. When people get excited, and you see this a lot, is using Optimus in the home and health care. That will take a lot longer than most expect. And don't get started on Optimus caring for the elderly at home even in a limited fashion.

Will be interesting to see how Tesla develops the UI between Optimus and the "owner" to let Optimus know what task is expected and where. I haven't seen any videos talk about this to any significant degree.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747727831990214972

 

[Carl Raymond]

https://x.com/KevinGShang/status/1747263466392711580?s=20

Big if true. These sort of prices were forecast for 2030.
Takes EV below parity price, killer blow for ICE.
Makes it clearer that RE + storage is the way.
Has to be a good time to be in EVs and megapacks, even if it takes a little gloss off 4680s.

 

[GhostSkater]

https://x.com/KevinGShang/status/1747263466392711580?s=20

Big if true. These sort of prices were forecast for 2030.
Takes EV below parity price, killer blow for ICE.
Makes it clearer that RE + storage is the way.
Has to be a good time to be in EVs and megapacks, even if it takes a little gloss off 4680s.

View attachment 1009837

Those prices in the US would mean the battery pack is free, any lower and you make money by increasing pack size, maybe Mary knew all along and this is why the Hummer has such a big pack

Yeah, I know, will take longer to reach those prices there

 

[Webeevdrivers]

As Tony says, it's like gravity. Autocalypse is coming and nobody can stop it.

If you think it's taking too long, look at China. About 1 in 4 new cars is a BEV there. And there is no sign of slowing down. It's taking a little longer in the US, but the growth rate is still very high. This is happening.

We are at 1 in 4 new car sales here in BC as well.

 

[AudubonB]

This perspective is consistent with my take on Optimus. The factory is where Optimus will shine initially. When people get excited, and you see this a lot, is using Optimus in the home and health care. That will take a lot longer than most expect. And don't get started on Optimus caring for the elderly at home even in a limited fashion.
...

Obasuteoptimus

 

[LuckyManX]

Yep. We were brought up that way. We have a whole kit in the car including a half dozen candies and a tin to put them in. A couple candles will bring the temp up in a cold car to the point where you won’t freeze to death.

Serious question - Are you concerned about low oxygen / carbon monoxide issues?

 

[Mengy]

As Tony says, it's like gravity. Autocalypse is coming and nobody can stop it.

If you think it's taking too long, look at China. About 1 in 4 new cars is a BEV there. And there is no sign of slowing down. It's taking a little longer in the US, but the growth rate is still very high. This is happening.

It will certainly be interesting to watch it play out. The ICE industry relies on supplier economies of scale, once sales volumes start sizably decreasing those economies of scale will flounder. The suppliers will feel it first, and that will ripple across the entire ICE industry like a pebble in a pond. And just like a Jenga tower, once it starts falling apart it will collapse very noticeably and with great impact.

The writing is already on the wall, it will happen, the only question is WHEN. Tony has an incredible track record with calling stuff like this, so if he is saying the collapse is nigh then we might want to get the popcorn ready...

 

[2daMoon]

It will certainly be interesting to watch it play out. The ICE industry relies on supplier economies of scale, once sales volumes start sizably decreasing those economies of scale will flounder. The suppliers will feel it first, and that will ripple across the entire ICE industry like a pebble in a pond. And just like a Jenga tower, once it starts falling apart it will collapse very noticeably and with great impact.

The writing is already on the wall, it will happen, the only question is WHEN. Tony has an incredible track record with calling stuff like this, so if he is saying the collapse is nigh then we might want to get the popcorn ready...

An event of this magnitude may call for S'mores as we'll be watching an industry burn. So we should be able to toast Marshmallows.

​

 

[growler23]

It will certainly be interesting to watch it play out. The ICE industry relies on supplier economies of scale, once sales volumes start sizably decreasing those economies of scale will flounder. The suppliers will feel it first, and that will ripple across the entire ICE industry like a pebble in a pond. And just like a Jenga tower, once it starts falling apart it will collapse very noticeably and with great impact.

The writing is already on the wall, it will happen, the only question is WHEN. Tony has an incredible track record with calling stuff like this, so if he is saying the collapse is nigh then we might want to get the popcorn ready...

Turn down the volume so I can hear the Jenga tower collapse into the pond, forming popcorn.

Got it!


Indeed hoping we have mortally wounded the ICE beast already... we shall see.