Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

If it "only" sells 250k a year that could add another ~$15-$20 billion in revenue, it's better to have multiple products even if some aren't home runs like 3/Y.

Indeed, also keep in mind that selling a single Cybertruck (88 MPGe) is like selling 2 or 3 full-size gas trucks (eg: F150 EPA 21 mpg).

And the CT box don't rust out after 4 winters... I expect we'll see 10 yr-old CTs getting new packs, and working to age 50

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's more likely that future trucks from everyone will mimic the Cybertruck.

Haha, its more likely sales of conventional trucks goes down 10% they become unprofitable and the Detroit 3 go bankrupt. It's their last profitable vehicle line, and it's gonna get kicked to the curb...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Although I love SS on the CT, I think coiled SS rolls will be lifted to orbit as a material

Wnknd OT: Sol 8,793

Starship IS rolls of stainless steel, lifted to leo, then Mars xfer orbit. Elon already stated the first generation of Starships will never leave the surface of Mars, instead they'll be cut up and used for construction materials. CT is a possiible later product, but it would require too much infrastructure to be an early build item item on Mars. Habs will be priorities, propellant tanks sabatier reactors, solar farms, batteries...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Please, do dig up a reference to support your claim.

If it is more definitive than being some off-hand comment said in jest, I'd be surprised.

Surprise!

Musk suggests Tesla would build 'normal truck' if Cybertruck flops | autonews.com (Aug 02, 2020)​

But this is all just hand-waving. Cybertruck is clearly NOT a flop, and Tesla is already taking about increasing production to 250K/yr from the present nominal capacity of 125K/yr (Joe T. says 2nd shift starts in April).

The background story from 2019 is that Elon needed a Mars Rover (that's why there will be a pressurized CT). Now with the market hit of the Foundation series, CT will be the "Midwest Rover" too. And soon enough, Cyberbeast (w.865+hp) will be "Master of the mud bogs"...

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

That's more bullish than 4 of the 5 most recent 12 month forecasts but less bullish than the Stephenson Indicator trend line (which would be over 600 by end of 2024).

View attachment 969666

and less bullish than the 20 most bullish old stale predictions. If it breaks $800 before the end of 2024 I'll apologize to SMR for saying he is overly bullish.

View attachment 969670

a lot of the price targets got revised down, a few of the lower targets got revised up.

 

[carterm2]

Wondering if there is a planned announcement regarding the $25k Model 2 in the next week or so?

 

[dhanson865]

Wondering if there is a planned announcement regarding the $25k Model 2 in the next week or so?

That'd be a big fat No.

You'll hear rumors about it all year long, announcements are a long way from now.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Wondering if there is a planned announcement regarding the $25k Model 2 in the next week or so?

I hope not. While it may be ego-stroking to Elon to have hundreds of fans yelling like it's a Taylor Swift concert. It's much more gratifying to debut a product that is ready for sale and released shortly after than wait three or four years and the hype forgotten.

 

[Artful Dodger]

CGI IRL, w. a side of OMG...

Let's end with a bit of fun -- Cyberstyle!

CT VIN 680 delivered. Owner: "If they told me give it back or play double, I'd pay double". And yeah, it's his 4th Tesla.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[2daMoon]

Re: Dojo

In the end Dojo may end up in a similar state to the Solar Roof, which management previously hyped as a major product that would ramp to 1000+ installs per week, but instead has ended up a low volume premium product that no one would even notice if Tesla stopped offering it. In that light if Dojo ends up as one of teslas multiple FSD training resources alongside NVIDIA data centres etc, it was still worth an attempt.

This last paragraph points to the key. Elon, and Tesla, will never waste time doing something someone else is doing well enough to achieve the mission.

If all the other existing Solar providers step up to get the job done Tesla won't be as motivated to storm that castle. If Tesla can offer a turn-key energy generation and storage system for a profit without increasing volume, that helps the mission too.

If Nvidia and AMD can scale their products fast enough, and their products meet Tesla's spec to solve AI, there is no need for Tesla to continue developing compute devices of their own. They can use what they have created, and supplement that with the others.

If, instead, the Tesla compute product has some advantage in AI development, they will continue to grow those resources AND still buy everything they can from the other manufacturers. Much as they do with batteries.

The mission is the focus.

 

[Ellec]

Wondering if there is a planned announcement regarding the $25k Model 2 in the next week or so?

Given it's slated to start production late 2025 I doubt it, however Tesla has revealed product years in advance of actual production before, so it wouldn't be without precedent. However this time it may lead to an Osbourne effect impact on current sales, depending on how similar it is to the current range of products. This all leads me to think Tesla will reveal it closer to production. I think late this year perhaps or early next. Regardless on when it is, it's something I am looking forward to myself.

 

[Thekiwi]

Seeing Tesla touring the CyberTrucks in China currently makes me wonder.

What are people thoughts here about Tesla treating the CyberTruck like the S&X through the end of 2025? As in, instead of introducing the rear wheel drive $60k model in 2025, they instead keep making AWD ($80k) & Trimotor version ($100k) and sending tens of thousands of them to China and other international markets alongside the North American orders.

What are the disadvantages of keeping ASPs higher by sending them overseas?

 

[Ellec]

Seeing Tesla touring the CyberTrucks in China currently makes me wonder.

What are people thoughts here about Tesla treating the CyberTruck like the S&X through the end of 2025? As in, instead of introducing the rear wheel drive $60k model in 2025, they instead keep making AWD ($80k) & Trimotor version ($100k) and sending tens of thousands of them to China and other international markets alongside the North American orders.

What are the disadvantages of keeping ASPs higher by sending them overseas?

I think they can do both, they will evaluate demand as they ramp and work out the best route to the highest profits. That may mean using your suggestion but I think they will also roll out the cheaper model in the US during 2025 while they are still ramping higher Spec to Asia/Europe.

 

[WarpedOne]

What are the disadvantages of keeping ASPs higher by sending them overseas?

Peoples crying teslas are only for the rich ...

 

[hobbes]

Elon Musk: Tesla would sell 'normal' pickup if CyberTruck doesn't sell

Musk says Tesla has a backup plan for its CyberTruck. "If nobody wants to buy a weird-looking truck, we'll build a normal truck, no problem."

www.google.com

Thanks for digging this up - however the link doesn´t work for me. If anyone else has the problem:

Elon Musk says Tesla will create a normal pickup truck if the Cybertruck doesn't sell, as a 'fallback strategy'

Musk says Tesla has a backup plan for its CyberTruck. "If nobody wants to buy a weird-looking truck, we'll build a normal truck, no problem."

www.businessinsider.com

 

[hobbes]

Hm Redwood, heard that somewhere else recently....

Redwood Materials breaks ground on $3.5B South Carolina battery plant

Redwood Materials has broken ground on an upcoming $3.5 billion battery materials plant in South Carolina.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Buckminster]

10k out:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024002390/tsla-20231231.htm

 

[jerry33]

Haha, its more likely sales of conventional trucks goes down 10% they become unprofitable and the Detroit 3 go bankrupt. It's their last profitable vehicle line, and it's gonna get kicked to the curb...

I wasn't only thinking of legacy auto. (e.g. Chinese and Korean)

 

[Buckminster]

No change to TSLA premarket so I assume nothing in the 10K of note.

Next up:
Elon state of the nation this week?

 

[The Accountant]

All cars not solely EVs:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751915367134286176