If you ever have friends and family send you articles about Tesla fires or Tesla running into a building, here is a video of an ICE car fire causing another ICE car to run into a wall...lol. Also someone needs to contact rueters, CNN, and fox News about this
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
... and of whatever steps in to take advantage of the void their demise creates. (besides Tesla)
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Krugerrand
Meow
The problem is longer shipping routes (due to Red Sea issues) which are now compensated for.
Not sure where the reply to this went, but in that story I found this inflation chart since 2000.
Assuming this is accurate, any young couple (with a new home and kids) is in economic shock. This is where the hospital trip can knock them out of house and home. OTOH, if you're house is paid off, kids are on their way, and you're healthy... no change really. So it's quite different depending on each situation.
)
When the problem is over, production will be 2X... (just kidding, the problem won't end).
AnbaricBike
Member
Joke is on them, MV underground cable is mostly aluminum!This and some of the responses are useful but are really missing the enormity of the issues that are present now. In part those issues are reflected in some commodity prices, but need a long term view to really know what has happened already:
One example, Copper:
copper-prices-historical-chart-data-2024-01-28-macrotrends.png
Another example:
Still another example, from yesterday:
Increasing Power Outages Don't Hit Everyone Equally
Some of the most vulnerable communities in the U.S. live in places that are particularly prone to frequent, prolonged power outageswww.scientificamerican.com
In Portuguese from O Globo this morning ( translation):
"At least 15 thousand homes and businesses in the Copacabana neighborhood were without electricity for almost 12 hours yesterday. The situation was not normalized until 19: 45. According to Light, the problem was caused by theft of cables from the company's underground network, which ended up causing, according to the concessionaire, overload in the system, especially in points on Santa Clara, Figueiredo de Magalhães and Siqueira Campos streets, in addition to Avenida Nossa Senhora de Copacabana and stretches of Barata Ribeiro Street and Peixoto neighborhood. Internet connections were also disrupted and traffic signals stopped working.
"The overload caused by the theft of cables caused the burning of cables and extensive damage to the electrical network. Because it is an underground network, the defects are not apparent and the company needs to carry out several tests to correct the failures”.
In a condominium on Santa Clara Street, residents reported that transformers in the building exploded around 8 a.m., as a result of the breakdown in the neighborhood. After that, fire officials cordoned off the building. Videos also showed heavy smoke billowing from a manhole at the corner of Figueiredo de Magalhães and Tonelero streets. Light reported that even after repairs to restore power in this part of the neighborhood, the building would still remain without power because the theft caused a short circuit and the burning of a transformer..."
As all of us know there are vastly increasing power outages in the entire world brought about by demand fluctuations caused by climate change which combine with aging infrastructure, including old technology grids.
There are also the periodic infrastructure failures due to voltage transformer failures and the already evident voltage transformer shortages.
Here, for reference is the generic power grid as described in a US-centric view:
ElecPwr_HSW.html
"...In order to cope with the power transmission challenges, China’s government put forward its “Power Transmission from the West to the East” plan in 2005, which stipulated the development of a new 1000 kV UHVAC and ±800 kV UHVDC transmission system. These were expected to increase the power transfer capacity through three important transmission corridors, i.e., the north, mid, and south. With the ascent of renewable energy, this challenge has further increased as – unlike coal – hydro, wind or solar power needs to be transported through long-distance transmission lines from source to end consumer. To this end, China has been installing ultra-high voltage power lines in recent years. These lines transmit energy at 800,000 volts and above, double the voltage of conventional high-voltage lines, allowing them to transmit up to five times more electricity at minimal energy loss. The first UHV line came into operation in 2009 and the system has been expanded to a current network of 31 lines and another 7 lines in the planning over the next 5 years."
Those approaches show the enormous efficiency brought by higher transmission voltages, which also have serious technical and operating challenges.
China's Power Grid Systems - Climate Scorecard
The State Grid Corporation and the China Southern Power Grid Corporation China today operates on two wide area synchronous grids: the State Grid in the North and China Southern Power Grid in the South. The grids are operated by two respectively named grid operating companies. China’s electric...www.climatescorecard.org
All of that is part of Elon's "voltage transformer" statement with massive shift in automotive and industrial switch to higher transmission voltages and better technologies.
Bizarrely, perhaps, all that ties quite directly to the long term copper price rises and, perhaps equally serious, supply imbalances. Global grid instability and rapid adoption of wind and solar generates enormous demand for more robust solutions, all fo them increasing demand for energy storage to intermediate supply, demand and distribution imbalances.
Elon knows all this intimately, perhaps more viscerally than anyone other than J B Straubel, who has preached diligently on these subjects since ~2008, and probably before he acquired the TSLA megaphone.
Every part of that is critical to Elon's outlook and Tesla's mission. Every part of that is essential.
FWIW, the Chinese State Grid is pursuing these goals too, and is doing so in obscurity. In the beginning of this post there was yesterday's theft-fomented Copacabana power outage. Just think about that, and weather related outages nearly global in scope, plus repeated energy distribution and generation disasters.
"My prediction is we will go from an extreme silicon shortage today, to probably a voltage transformer shortage in a year, and then an electricity shortage in a year into two years".
This time Elon predicted the past. he's good at that even when nearly all of the world misses the point.
The best way to predict the future is to invent it
as Mark Twain, a Danish proverb and several more said: "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future". The corollary "The best way to predict the future is to invent it" is credited to Alan Kay when he was at PARC (look him up, we owe him much of our thanks).
That then establishes Elon's core values. As we consider all this in the context of shareholder value we should be cognizant that only by what Elon calls "Fist Principles" thinking can a sound future be realized.
For those who believe all this, HODL is necessary to realize our own need for a "dear life" to happen at all.
I'm old, for me the Alan Kay era was part of my daily euphoria working with SRI (aka: Stanford research Institute. I learned there that the unimaginable was a limitation of imagination, not reality.
Elon has many seemingly 'throwaway lines' that actually summarize profound realities. This was one such.
It's time for me to allocate some more money to TSLA.
I've been thinking Tesla should be manufacturing MV transformers for a few years now.
Attachments
A bit more detail on Tesla releasing their valuation allowance.
I may need @The Accountant to jump in here but I believe it's likely they can now carry forward their NOLs to future years, if I'm reading it correctly.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Unlikely with Tesla.
Two weeks is an established standard measurement employed for all matters.
/s
An interesting one in there is college textbooks. In the early 2010s academics were so fed up that the free textbook movement started. Prices have plateaued. Hmm...Not sure where the reply to this went, but in that story I found this inflation chart since 2000.
Assuming this is accurate, any young couple (with a new home and kids) is in economic shock. This is where the hospital trip can knock them out of house and home. OTOH, if you're house is paid off, kids are on their way, and you're healthy... no change really. So it's quite different depending on each situation.
SeniorsAdults hooked on meds are gonna (try to) vote accordingly - not that medical expenses will ever change. 63% of all adults in the USA use prescription drugs. (I prefer non-prescription personally, at least I know what I'm getting!
View attachment 1013202
I also wonder about housing. How do they calculate that? Is that national average? What has generally mattered is the cost of housing where the jobs are. I do wonder which way remote working will take the housing prices: it could ease pressure, or just spread the increase to the nice places with weak local job markets.
PS Non-prescription drugs are the same as prescription drugs but with too low a dose to be really useful.
Krugerrand
Meow
Clearly there was a computer input problem. Nothing more, nothing less. The people present at the locale didn’t have the authority to rectify the situation. I suspect that the main person he spoke with may have been responsible for the initial computer input mistake and was afraid of losing his job and as a result was trying to cover his butt. His behavior otherwise doesn’t make sense.
None of that makes this a ‘Tesla/Elon’ problem. It makes it an individual person problem and if I’m in charge of that locale, Travis’s a$$ is grass. Not because he may have made the initial mistake, or didn’t know what to do in the moment, but because he clearly lied later on. Travis’s superior only knows what Travis tells him/her so can be entirely unaware.
Additionally, this guy doesn’t help himself, even a little bit. He was told beforehand, before he drove 5 1/2hrs that there was an issue, but went anyway and paid the rest of the money before seeing the car to determine it matched or not!?
He clearly lacks the skills and abilities to get things done he wants and needs. Then before he even gets his deposits and such back, he asks to be compensated with SuperCharger credits.
I seriously need to open a school to teach adults how to navigate through the customer service experience. How to get to a person who actually has the authority to help. How not to shoot yourself in the foot in the first place. How to communicate effectively.
You sit for THREE hours waiting and then leave to eat!? That’s like waiting on hold and then hanging up to go pee so you can start the three hour queue again. Since he’d chosen to sit as his way to get his resolution, he should have wholeheartedly committed until the Tesla employees had to call the cops. Then he’d have been on the local evening news. Voila! Resolution.
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Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
From the 10K, page 34, CAPEX rising 20% this year:
Krugerrand
Meow
What if there’s a pandemic? What if there’s a sympathy strike in Sweden?
Come on, man! Does it need to be spelled out? Tesla already said it’s making logistic changes to prevent something like this beyond their control happening again. Tesla already is taking the opportunity of this forced shutdown to do their yearly maintenance. Tesla has already proven they are agile, creative, tenacious, and innovative. Tesla already said the shutdown won’t affect their 2024 plans.
What if people stop worrying about what ifs and just deal with what’s currently in front of their faces?
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But at least....
Tesla Expects Capital Expenditures to Decline After Fiscal 2024
Tesla targeted $10 billion in capital expenditures in the current fiscal year, but projected spending of $8 billion to $10 billion in fiscal 2025 and 2026.
Krugerrand
Meow
Strange, but I recall myself and my generation facing the same issues.Not sure where the reply to this went, but in that story I found this inflation chart since 2000.
Assuming this is accurate, any young couple (with a new home and kids) is in economic shock. This is where the hospital trip can knock them out of house and home. OTOH, if you're house is paid off, kids are on their way, and you're healthy... no change really. So it's quite different depending on each situation.
SeniorsAdults hooked on meds are gonna (try to) vote accordingly - not that medical expenses will ever change. 63% of all adults in the USA use prescription drugs. (I prefer non-prescription personally, at least I know what I'm getting!
View attachment 1013202
And so did Elon.
Krugerrand
Meow
Hear that WS? Absolutely, nothing to see here. No preparations being made for shhhhh future growth.
Actually not the ones they are stealing, at least mostly. Light (the company serving the area) has only switched to using aluminum recently. The older underground cables, such as those in Copacabana, were installed decades back. The thieves are using whichever they seal but nearly all that they steal are the older copper ones.
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
Maybe TESLA surprises us: The new stamping area of Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg - I guess they simply doubled the Schuller Presses - should be finished by now. That would be the perfect time to ship the first Model 3 from Grünheide. I wouldn't mind when we see the same for Texas soon
That would be something for the 'after 10K release' announced by Elon.
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