Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Just to clarify: The Belgian company car situation is NOT a temporary incentive, it is permanent. The current law is such that newly bought ICE (or hybrid) cars are not tax deductible. They used to be tax deductible for a certain percentage depending on emissions (between about 50% and 90%, with most cars probably around 65% to 70%), but not anymore.
The 100% deductibility for EV’s is valid for cars bought until 2026 and remains valid for 5 years from the purchase date on (so valid for the typical lease duration).
From 2027 on the deductibility does down each year until it reaches 67.5% in 2031 (again, you lock in the deductibility rate of the purchase year for 5 years).
So in 2036 we get the terminal situation that only EV’s are deducible, and only at a 67% rate.
That situation is basically the same tax rate as for ICE cars from before the law change.

Overall there’s probably little revenue loss (wrt company taxes) for the government as the temporary increased deductibility for EVs is compensated by the loss of deductibility of ICE cars. That means that there is no budgetary reason to change this law.

There may budgetary effects caused by fuel tax revenue going down. Sooner or later we’ll get a km-tax to compensate for that, and again, most likely ICE cars will pay more than EVs.

If you talk to the people in the Belgian streets about politics there’s only 1 thing most people agree on: it will take a very long time to form a new government after our elections in june. We’ll probably break our own world record of 541 days without government. The chance that the current law is modified (after we get new government) is IMO close to zero.

Which means that the current pro-EV situation will stay the same for quite a few years.
Tesla had 3.91% market share in januari and 3.36% overal in 2023. The januari market share is lower than the december 2023 market share of 5.38% because the sales of the top 3 (BMW, Audi and Mercedes) seem to peak in the begin of the year.

Yeah, my bad, imprecise wording from me. UK also - company cars favoured - not sure how permanent that is, hopefully permanently permanent

 

[Singuy]

Stock price commentary

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754544318319063430

Well also NVDA had a 800 price target from Goldman today while Tsla had a 295->225 downgrade from Piper Sandler.

 

[Krugerrand]

YOU... might actually be doing the smartest thing right now.

I require you not to encourage that dufus. Thanks. Soon he’ll be thinking he has enough for an invasion. I don’t want my mountain littered with the remains of his weak sauce army.

 

[Singuy]

Another 100 shares transferred from IRA to Roth Account.

I thought this creates a taxable event.

 

[Unpilot]

I thought this creates a taxable event.

It does....but my crystal ball says it will be much less than the growth in the shares converted.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm certainly not mad. I think you are the only one who has directly challenged my thesis. And I'll point out that I've gotten a lot of likes as well.

I do want to test my thesis, which depends on a soonish rollout of robotaxi. So sure, I'll meet you at

FSD V12 (end to end AI)​

I don't have time to post there right now, but I will soon.

I'm with you here. I think there are several folks wanting to discredit any new approach, not just @Knightshade. 1% of me thinks the narrative is intentional. (see disclaimer below).

I have recently been posting in the FSD V12 thread mentioned, sharing some quirks etc. But to keep it high level in this thread, I'm pretty tech savy, use GPTs daily, and have been through every FSD rev since public. As a result, I also think geo-fenced and/or limited use cases are possible very soon (25% confident in this quarter, 50% in this year). But I was thinking in a few weeks is also possible for 10%.

What I don't know is if this will help Tesla achieve it's goals - such as to get more data to approach 10x safety ASAP. This move would not be for inducing value into the stock, unless Burnt Hair is still the plan AND there was no added risk in exchange for any benefits from system or social adaptation. I've also concluded the reason I don't have V12 yet is due to hyper awareness in the media.

(Disclaimer, I watched Lupin - The Art of the Disguise feels similar here. Who is in this room?)

 

[Stretch2727]

Another 100 shares transferred from IRA to Roth Account.

Have already done 200 shares this year and have plans for more....probably soon. I learned Ameritrade uses the prior day close to price the transfer. I like this as there is no uncertainty in the price/taxes I will pay. For some reason I thought it was the day of the transfer closing price.
So maybe tomorrow for another 100!

 

[SunCatcher]

Musical Tesla Coils celebrate Tesla (TSLA +1.3%) again attaining all-time intraday and closing highs.

2 years and 3 months ago, we were at our ATH. Remember? Yes, I thought so. We will see that SP again, and more dear people.

Q: How far has Tesla the company come in that time?
A: Very FAR!

I don't have time right now to elaborate, but then again, I don't think that's really necessary. Do you?

HODL, and cheer up for Chripe's sake.

 

[mongo]

It does....but my crystal ball says it will be much less than the growth in the shares converted.

The real question is the tax bracket the money goes into now verses what it would be later.
20% tax before 2x gain yields the same net income as as 20% tax after 2x gain, even though the tax in dollars is different.
(assuming tax payments can give the same returns)

 

[Singuy]

I'm with you here. I think there are several folks wanting to discredit any new approach, not just @Knightshade. 1% of me thinks the narrative is intentional. (see disclaimer below).

I have recently been posting in the FSD V12 thread mentioned, sharing some quirks etc. But to keep it high level in this thread, I'm pretty tech savy, use GPTs daily, and have been through every FSD rev since public. As a result, I also think geo-fenced and/or limited use cases are possible very soon (25% confident in this quarter, 50% in this year). But I was thinking in a few weeks is also possible for 10%.

What I don't know is if this will help Tesla achieve it's goals - such as to get more data to approach 10x safety ASAP. This move would not be for inducing value into the stock, unless Burnt Hair is still the plan AND there was no added risk in exchange for any benefits from system or social adaptation. I've also concluded the reason I don't have V12 yet is due to hyper awareness in the media.

(Disclaimer, I watched Lupin - The Art of the Disguise feels similar here. Who is in this room?)

I am in the camp who believes it's not much of a challenge to do geo fencing robotaxies, however it's impossible that Telsa would because a ride hailing service is a cash furnace (cash furnace^2 when it's done by robotaxies). Elon being the high level business man that he is fully understands this.

 

[Paul_SF]

We are not at peak FUD and disgruntled long time shareholders bailing on Elon and TSLA, yet.

Looking forward to the next 6-12 months to get there...The new long term shareholders will rotate from all the hot stocks to TSLA and will hold for the next +10X, like the disgruntled leaving now did. It's all part of the process....

The ones leaving us should just be courteous enough to put a small post about getting out and stop posting after that. They clog this already bloated with BS forum that used to be full of people spreading knowledge.

Everyone that is claiming they sold it's going on my Ignore list, as their feelings don't matter and they have no skin in the game. They just want to feel good for the decision they made. GTFO!

 

[mongo]

I am in the camp who believes it's not much of a challenge to do geo fencing robotaxies, however it's impossible that Telsa would because a ride hailing service is a cash furnace (cash furnace^2 when it's done by robotaxies). Elon being the high level business man that he is fully understands this.

I like my Robotaxis geofenced. And by geo, I mean the dirt around the tunnel.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think the all time high (ATH) was an EV bubble. Note that when TSLA hit its ATH, RIVN, LCID, and NIO were all at their ATH as well. The bubble quickly burst not long after that, and the market is still trying to figure out the correct valuation. Also note TSLA doing much better than the other stocks I just mentioned.

 

[Snerruc]

Did I miss something or is bringing up Elon's tweets and politics fair game now? I understand the mods are volunteers and can't be here all the time but we have some repeat offenders that could use a time out...

I gave you a thumbs up, but a certain amount of discussion on this subject should be allowed. Whether or not we agree, there definitely is a level of influence on the stock price caused by Mr Musk’s actions outside Tesla. Personally, I think at least as much good as bad. I don’t envy the moderators job, and I think over all they do a great job. Perhaps this is why they let this subject run on for a while before they axe it. Just my doofus opinion.

 

[dedicatedtek]

I think the all time high (ATH) was an EV bubble. Note that when TSLA hit its ATH, RIVN, LCID, and NIO were all at their ATH as well. The bubble quickly burst not long after that and the market is still trying to figure out the correct valuation. Also note TSLA doing much better than the other stocks I just mentioned

I don't agree that it was "an EV bubble" - compare to other stocks at the same time (i.e. AMZN, GOOG....)
TSLA hasn't rebounded/recovered as much, but the drop was similar across non-EV stocks.

 

[Rarity]

Regarding Texas incorporation, I have always vaguely understood the state to be a haven for the plaintiff's bar. My educated guess is that while this still might be true, because many of his operations are in Texas and Nevada, Musk is learning the Texas and Nevada legal contexts and how to navigate them. He is doing so for non-profit, for-profit, and public benefit companies. Both on the state and federal sides. He might not know the contexts perfectly now, but will come up to speed in the next few months.

Delaware is apparently changing, and the question is whether Musk wants to learn that new context. He was steeped in how things worked in Delaware, but it appears that his knowledge was not current. Maybe Delaware is just becoming unpredictable and so it's worthless to learn that context. As Musk says, context switching is the mind-killer!

 

[2daMoon]

Whether or not we agree, there definitely is a level of influence on the stock price caused by Mr Musk’s actions outside Tesla.

Agreed, there is a "level of influence" resulting, but whether or not that level is significant cannot be determined with any accuracy. There are a lot of variables, and humans are tuned to detect patterns, even when they are actually chaotic and only appear as if they aren't.

Likewise, is it "caused by Mr. Musk's actions," or, more by the actions of those sensationalizing upon his actions to a greater degree than is seen for anyone else?

The level of direct influence could as easily be minuscule, yet tracks coincidentally with the SP moves as a result of the timing of when it is published in the press and social media. Further perpetuating the illusion that cause and effect exist when there may be no direct relationship at all, without a little help.

This action by the various flavors of media generates outrage and this results in clicks which funds further FUD based upon Mr. Musk's actions which are maintained under a microscope at all times because it is profitable to do so.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I don't agree that it was "an EV bubble" - compare to other stocks at the same time (i.e. AMZN, GOOG....)
TSLA hasn't rebounded/recovered as much, but the drop was similar across non-EV stocks.
View attachment 1015611

hmmm. over past 5 years, you don't see the giant peak that TSLA had in late 2021 in AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG. Even with the bubble pop, TSLA is outperforming those over last 5 years

 

[Spacep0d]

Just realized I can still contribute to my 2023 Roth IRA until April 15th, 2024 (I'm 55) so I'm in for 11 more $TSLA this morning.

The FUD is strong right now but I'm HODLing and buying the dip! I really want to soundproof the music studio for vocal tracking (will cost 8-10k if done professionally) but these TSLA blue-light specials keep coming...

 

[GhostSkater]

Define "good".

If the charging curve is not what is expected/wanted, how do we know Tesla is not starting conservatively, as they have with other new designs?

Good would be a charging curve that doesn’t take 40+ minutes from 10-80%

That might as well be the case, but it will be quite a while until we know, other Tesla packs that started with limited charging speed took many months for a update to improve it

On the other side, we had the Model S/X refresh which debuted with an awesome curve from the get go, first time this happened with Tesla afaik