Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

Nvidia must think Tesla is on a winning strategy with Dojo.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755936560636211501

I think this is also evidence that there are dual motivations for Dojo. I've seen this happen in the video games industry, including famously when valve made a big loud noise about supporting linux as the future because of how microsoft was trying to lock down windows. Its a 'shot across the bows to show we are serious' strategy, to show a business partner you are willing to, and capable of walking away.

Tesla may well be happy to train FSD on nvidia chips built by TSMC. Chip design and fabs are staggeringly difficult and expensive, nobody WANTS to get into that business...
But by loudly working on dojo, and making sure everyone knows its a thing, they can ensure TSMC/nvidia etc treat them well, supply them with chips, listen to their requirements etc. Nobody wants to give a very well-funded and technologically ambitious customer a reason to flip the table and go build their own capacity. Methinks the likes of GM/Toyota/Ford/VW will just be laughed at if they made similar threats. So back of the queue for them.

 

[Knightshade]

I think this is also evidence that there are dual motivations for Dojo. I've seen this happen in the video games industry, including famously when valve made a big loud noise about supporting linux as the future because of how microsoft was trying to lock down windows. Its a 'shot across the bows to show we are serious' strategy, to show a business partner you are willing to, and capable of walking away.

Tesla may well be happy to train FSD on nvidia chips built by TSMC. Chip design and fabs are staggeringly difficult and expensive, nobody WANTS to get into that business...
But by loudly working on dojo, and making sure everyone knows its a thing, they can ensure TSMC/nvidia etc treat them well, supply them with chips, listen to their requirements etc. Nobody wants to give a very well-funded and technologically ambitious customer a reason to flip the table and go build their own capacity. Methinks the likes of GM/Toyota/Ford/VW will just be laughed at if they made similar threats. So back of the queue for them.

Dojo is ALSO made by TSMC.

Tesla reportedly ramps up partnership with TSMC for Dojo supercomputer chip

Tesla is reportedly ramping up its partnership with chip giant TSMC to produce the Dojo supercomputer chip. Dojo is Tesla’s...

electrek.co

Tesla is not going to build a fab. Anytime someone floats this idea it's clear they have no idea what goes into one.

The kind they'd need for the chips they need (which are on different processes while we're at it so they'd need multiple different facilities or lines) is insanely expensive and would require vastly more volume than Tesla themselves use. If it was "only" for one line (Dojo for example) that complication increases tremendously volume-wise.

For example TSMCs dual new plant investment in AZ is going to be about a 40 billion-with-a-b dollar investment, and output about 600,000 wafers a year.

Teslas 2024 Dojo order is only 10,000 chips.



Again, companies like AMD, Nvidia and Apple use way way more chips than Tesla does (and Apple at least has vastly more cash on hand too), and they also don't build their own fab because it makes no economic sense at all. (Heck AMD -used to- own fabs and got out of the business!)

 

[Tony73]

We really shouldn't though.

SAE already covers this in J3016.

If a human is required to drive, it's not autonomy at all because the human is still the driver- it's driver assistance-(one of 3 possible levels, L0, L1, or L2 depending on the level of assistance it gives the human driver)

if a human is not required to drive, it's autonomy- an autonomous driving system- ADS- (one of 3 possible levels, L3, L4, or L5 depending on other things)

Also the discussion either way really belongs here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Fair enough. Supervised product and autonomous product. Tesla obviously is trying to get the supervised product to a point where it will on highways and city streets with few enough interventions that meaningful amounts of the fleet will pay a recurring fee of over $100 a month for it.
Such a product does not exist today anywhere

 

[Tony73]

I think this is also evidence that there are dual motivations for Dojo. I've seen this happen in the video games industry, including famously when valve made a big loud noise about supporting linux as the future because of how microsoft was trying to lock down windows. Its a 'shot across the bows to show we are serious' strategy, to show a business partner you are willing to, and capable of walking away.

Tesla may well be happy to train FSD on nvidia chips built by TSMC. Chip design and fabs are staggeringly difficult and expensive, nobody WANTS to get into that business...
But by loudly working on dojo, and making sure everyone knows its a thing, they can ensure TSMC/nvidia etc treat them well, supply them with chips, listen to their requirements etc. Nobody wants to give a very well-funded and technologically ambitious customer a reason to flip the table and go build their own capacity. Methinks the likes of GM/Toyota/Ford/VW will just be laughed at if they made similar threats. So back of the queue for them.

We should be more precise with terminology. Technically Dojo is Tesla’s in house supercomputer built around the Tesla designed and TSMC made D1 training chip. D1 might be made by Samsung-not sure. I think SS makes the inference chip

 

[Singuy]

Dojo is ALSO made by TSMC.

Tesla reportedly ramps up partnership with TSMC for Dojo supercomputer chip

Tesla is reportedly ramping up its partnership with chip giant TSMC to produce the Dojo supercomputer chip. Dojo is Tesla’s...

electrek.co

Tesla is not going to build a fab. Anytime someone floats this idea it's clear they have no idea what goes into one.

The kind they'd need for the chips they need (which are on different processes while we're at it so they'd need multiple different facilities or lines) is insanely expensive and would require vastly more volume than Tesla themselves use. If it was "only" for one line (Dojo for example) that complication increases tremendously volume-wise.

For example TSMCs dual new plant investment in AZ is going to be about a 40 billion-with-a-b dollar investment, and output about 600,000 wafers a year.

Teslas 2024 Dojo order is only 10,000 chips.



Again, companies like AMD, Nvidia and Apple use way way more chips than Tesla does (and Apple at least has vastly more cash on hand too), and they also don't build their own fab because it makes no economic sense at all. (Heck AMD -used to- own fabs and got out of the business!)

To add to this, Intel has their own fab and the operating expense on the thing are insane! Their operating income was 93M on 54B of revenue for 2023. AMD which is fabless had a operating income of 401M on 50% of Intel's revenue.

The first thing to avoid bk when AMD was in trouble was to cut off their fab.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755985948469256325

I'm changing my $375T market cap forecast to be just about Dojo. Bots & robotaxis are there to exclusively service Dojoaliendreadnoughtfactorythatbuildsfactories intra floor (floors 2 through 69) logistics.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Mars needs everything, eventually. Has to be capable to survive without imports. So minimum is to be capable to produce chips if Earth is destroyed by falling sperm whales or bowls of petunias ("oh no, not again"). However improbability this drive is.

 

[Tony73]

But by loudly working on dojo, and making sure everyone knows its a thing, they can ensure TSMC/nvidia etc treat them well, supply them with chips, listen to their requirements etc. Nobody wants to give a very well-funded and technologically ambitious customer a reason to flip the table and go build their own capacity.

NVDAs bread and butter is the hyper scale cloud providers and FB all of whom have or are working on their own silicon. If NVDA is worried about internal teams at customers, Tesla would be far down on the list.

 

[Singuy]

We should be more precise with terminology. Technically Dojo is Tesla’s in house supercomputer built around the Tesla designed and TSMC made D1 training chip. D1 might be made by Samsung-not sure. I think SS makes the inference chip

People seems to think Dojo just means training computer and that they have a Nvidia Dojo and a D1 chip Dojo.

This is incorrect.

Dojo is a complete inhouse designed supercomputer. They designed the VRM, cooling, and all interconnects all the way to the cabinet-cabinet level. The D1 chip is also inhouse designed much like everything from Nvidia/AMD, fabricated on TSMC's fan out wafer process which allows for multiple chips(25) to be interconnected onto a single wafer. Typically Nvidia/AMD have TSMC fab multiple chips onto a wafer and then separate them for PCB packaging.

Currently no other AI silicon manufacture designed a super computer from end to end. They usually design the cpu/GPU and interconnect between multiples. The rest will be using off the shelf motherboards, cooling, switches, network cablets, etc etc. Tesla is I believe the first to do the entire thing.

 

[Drumheller]

So, close at 189.99 or 189.49?

 

[Tony73]

So, close at 189.99 or 189.49?

In the grand scheme of things, what difference does it make ?

 

[elasalle]

I think this is also evidence that there are dual motivations for Dojo. I've seen this happen in the video games industry, including famously when valve made a big loud noise about supporting linux as the future because of how microsoft was trying to lock down windows. Its a 'shot across the bows to show we are serious' strategy, to show a business partner you are willing to, and capable of walking away.

Tesla may well be happy to train FSD on nvidia chips built by TSMC. Chip design and fabs are staggeringly difficult and expensive, nobody WANTS to get into that business...
But by loudly working on dojo, and making sure everyone knows its a thing, they can ensure TSMC/nvidia etc treat them well, supply them with chips, listen to their requirements etc. Nobody wants to give a very well-funded and technologically ambitious customer a reason to flip the table and go build their own capacity. Methinks the likes of GM/Toyota/Ford/VW will just be laughed at if they made similar threats. So back of the queue for them.

Or Sam Altman wants to start his own AI chip and I think he was getting some funding approved ... (wasn't that reason they terminated him from OpenAI for a few days ...)

 

[SOULPEDL]

So, close at 189.99 or 189.49?

$192.49 (M.P. moved up a bit)

 

[Drumheller]

In the grand scheme of things, what difference does it make ?

Why would it change? Many posts saying day to day doesn't matter because it corrects over years but here we are years have gone by with this behavior. What ensures it will change?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Next week, Calls gathering at 200. Feels like a steady climb so far.

 

[Snerruc]

Still on the subject of demand limited or not….am I the only one getting weekly texts/ emails from Tesla trying to get me to trade my S? First just want to trade? The trade and keep your free charging. Then trade and keep FSD. Then trade and keep both. Now today buy ANY Tesla and keep both. It’s beginning to sound desperate to me. If anyone with Tesla is following this thread, I’ll bite, if you include bright trim and wheels. You know that’s why I haven’t traded yet.

 

[Knightshade]

Still on the subject of demand limited or not….am I the only one getting weekly texts/ emails from Tesla trying to get me to trade my S? First just want to trade? The trade and keep your free charging. Then trade and keep FSD. Then trade and keep both. Now today buy ANY Tesla and keep both. It’s beginning to sound desperate to me. If anyone with Tesla is following this thread, I’ll bite, if you include bright trim and wheels. You know that’s why I haven’t traded yet.

I've gotten several in the last 2 weeks now that you mention it... todays was a text message to my phone reminding be FSD can be transferred if I take delivery by the end of March... I do like the highland changes, but I don't like em $30,000 worth which about what trading in would cost (more after I get PPF on the new car to match the old one)

At least it's an improvement over the emails they keep sending about solar despite not offering solar where I live (and it's not like they don't have my address)

 

[Singuy]

I think Troy out of all people should take a few things into consideration when he writes stuff about how price cuts didn't double demand and that if Elon stops tweeting, demand would go up by a random number he generated(35%).

1. Chip shortages cause a lack of inventory for all cars which increased demand.
2. EV and ICE competition were pricing their cars with market adjustment markups
3. Gas prices were insane
4. Some people were buying just to resell(not just with Teslas but with all cars).
5. Interest rates were lower when people ordered their cars before the insane mark ups.
6. Tesla didn't meaningfully increased their orders while the price of their cars were near peak and when interest rates went up. They spent most of the year trying to fill backlogs of cars at a much lower price. If their orders were just as high as before, it would be difficult for Tesla to clear their backlog.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still on the subject of demand limited or not….am I the only one getting weekly texts/ emails from Tesla trying to get me to trade my S? First just want to trade? The trade and keep your free charging. Then trade and keep FSD. Then trade and keep both. Now today buy ANY Tesla and keep both. It’s beginning to sound desperate to me. If anyone with Tesla is following this thread, I’ll bite, if you include bright trim and wheels. You know that’s why I haven’t traded yet.

I prefer Tesla pushes trade-ins over dropping prices given the option. Plus it feeds the next gen with used cars and prices. One used car can open the door to a whole group of disinterested folks, maybe even a whole town somewhere out there.

 

[Matias]

Perhaps it keeps coming up because the CEO of Tesla keeps saying FSD will need "regulatory approval" before robotaxis can be rolled out.

I can't roll out my teleportation system because I don't have a regulatory license.