Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Interesting dichotomy- They criticize Elon and yet state Tesla would not be where it is without him.

Tesla: Is Elon Musk actually bad for EV maker's business?

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has been ordered by a California judge to comply with a SEC subpoena regarding Musk’s 2022 purchase of X.com, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. The tech exec has made headlines recently for challenges to his exorbitant pay package and other...

finance.yahoo.com

CRAIG IRWIN: No. I think Musk is essential for the valuation. He's essential for the equity following of retail investors and he's been the visionary. You talk to senior executives out at Tesla, senior engineers out of Tesla and they say Musk is absolutely impossible to please. He is unstoppable. He will not take no for an answer. And that's how he's getting these tremendous results years faster than anyone else in the industry.

He's a very demanding CEO and extremely intelligent about the way he looks at some of these fundamental problems that people just assume are unsolvable or that the conventional solutions, the right solution. Musk is Tesla, that is the challenge here over the next many years. How do you backfill him? I think if Musk was gone for Tesla, the valuation would change radically in a very short period of time.

Man, they replaced almost everything Craig Irwin said, because there is no way he said that about Elon.

 

[NicoV]

TLDR: Because it is contextual, each query can build on the previous one. (Baby and Bathwater) also, afaik and hope that the LLM isn't biased, just stupid.

I am testing chat/LLM (Grok (2 wks) and chatgpt3.5 (weeks) and 4.0 (days). They outright lie (Grok), misinform (chat3.5) and merely apologize when caught. It is possible to use them (esp CoPilot) to create python scripts that work (PWM fan control, fibonacci spiral of points csv file creation for example, even though I don't know the language or have the ability to program in python.)

The python programming experience informed me that LLM or contextual search can work exceptionally well and I have seen statistics that indicate a very large impact it is having on productivity re software creation. ($SMCI stock).

Often the quality of the answer is based on the how well the question is posed, and how the answer is vetted. Python scripts (simple ones) are easy to verify, contextual error messages result in a faster way to debug with the answer is often complete code that can be tested immediately.

My use case is generating Rust code snippets. Rust is a strongly typed language (unlike Python), so the compiler will catch alsmost all nonsense. I only recently switched to Rust, so I basically have to look up a lot of things. Mainly things that I know that exists in Rust, but for which I have forgotten the syntax or library details after reading through the language manual once. Using chatgpt for these things is at least an order of magnitude faster than google (maybe even more).
So the usability depends on your use case.
Just like autopilot and FSD: some people are very happy with, other have doubts. Probably just a difference in usage scenarios.

 

[Stormy24]

To get back to the market…..Tesla down about 4 bucks at the moment. On any news? Or??

Or

 

[Matias]

I know you are joking but Elon has just sent up the batbtc signal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757092523850276872

My mind goes to Dogecoin...

Or could be Tesla - Elon frustrated nobody has cracked his t shirt puzzle! Or that nobody cares enough to even talk about it.

My theory is that the only gigacastings on Redwood will be the unboxed sides.

Good morning?

 

[cliff harris]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1anwy0q/no_model_y_refresh_in_2024_in_north_america

So when a large portion of the Tesla demographic is internet savvy, Someone at Tesla thinks they can debut an upgraded Model Y in China, ship it Europe and hold off selling it in the USA and people are not going to wait? Did they not learn anything doing this with the 3. Even Tesla must have been surprised and cringed at the worldwide attention the Highland 3 received knowing present 3 sells would drop. Now while the majority of buyers are not up on the latest generation or design changes but Tesla is no doubt relying on present Tesla buyers to upgrade and they are info savvy.

Do you think people in China cannot use the internet?
Its extremely difficult to launch something as complex as a new car in every market at the same time, with multiple factories. Nor does it make sense. Its worth collecting user impressions and data before expanding the production to more factories.
The assumption that all new high tech products will debut in the US is now wrong. China is rapidly becoming the primary focus of large companies. Europe and the US can wait. China is the global manufacturing superpower, and Tesla's sell very well there. Its perfectly rational for Tesla to release new products in China first.

 

[ggies07]

Elon - humanity must be cherished!
Elon to Disney - "DEEZ NUTZ"

God. What a loser. His "tism" card has worn out.

 

[AudubonB]

ChatGPT has 180 million active users. I don't know anyone who doesn't use it, but just like your friends don't, it's an irrelevant datapoint.

Another anecdotal datapoint; My wife and I use it daily. Me for coding purposes and her for a list of things like e-mails, policy re-writes, and contracts.

Neither of us use it like Google, ever.

I am considering allowing use of a poll of this thread’s participants to learn who here uses ChatGPT. Age and educational levels of contributors might be appropriate subsets as well.

Full disclosure: I am alarmed at your statement about its use amongst your ken.

 

[powertoold]

I am considering allowing use of a poll of this thread’s participants to learn who here uses ChatGPT. Age and educational levels of contributors might be appropriate subsets as well.

Full disclosure: I am alarmed at your statement about its use amongst your ken.

After usc posted that, I went to chatgpt and asked it to draft an email for a contract renewal, and in addition to me having to think about how to ask it with enough detail in the question, it gave me a verbose email that was not in my style and included many things like offering an "in-person" meeting that I didn't want. Basically, the email draft was useless and I could have better spent 5 minutes to draft it myself.

I can see how it might be useful for essays and school homework, but as is, you need to put a lot of effort into the prompt itself in order to get the output you desire, and if you give it enough detail, you may as well do it yourself

 

[hd-2]

After usc posted that, I went to chatgpt and asked it to draft an email for a contract renewal, and in addition to me having to think about how to ask it with enough detail in the question, it gave me a verbose email that was not in my style and included many things like offering an "in-person" meeting that I didn't want. Basically, the email draft was useless and I could have better spent 5 minutes to draft it myself.

I can see how it might be useful for essays and school homework, but as is, you need to put a lot of effort into the prompt itself in order to get the output you desire, and if you give it enough detail, you may as well do it yourself

Can we avoid these types of examples, and just wait for a poll? It's useful, if used correctly, in some cases, barring some exceptions, etc; same rabbit hole X convos have been down with every LLM, public or private.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Or

Bought some...

 

[EQC_]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/1anwy0q/no_model_y_refresh_in_2024_in_north_america

So when a large portion of the Tesla demographic is internet savvy, Someone at Tesla thinks they can debut an upgraded Model Y in China, ship it Europe and hold off selling it in the USA and people are not going to wait? Did they not learn anything doing this with the 3. Even Tesla must have been surprised and cringed at the worldwide attention the Highland 3 received knowing present 3 sells would drop. Now while the majority of buyers are not up on the latest generation or design changes but Tesla is no doubt relying on present Tesla buyers to upgrade and they are info savvy.

I know Tesla doesn't break down sales by model or region...but do you actually have data showing that Model 3 sales in the U.S. dropped after Highland went on sale in China and Europe?

To me, to determine if there was some "mistake," then even if the Model 3 sales numbers did drop, we still need to answer the question: *COULD* Tesla have produced more Fremont-made Model 3's, without reducing Model Y production, during the period between when the Highland came out in China/Europe and when it came out in the US?

To expand, even if there was a numerical drop, there are so many variables and related facts involved that it is still pretty hard to claim there was a problem or mistake, and harder still to assign "blame."

• Isn't at least one of the lines in Fremont flexible enought to make both the 3 and the Y? If there was decreased demand for the 3, couldn't Tesla have just produced more of the more expensive and more profitable Model Y's?
• Likewise, we know that Panasonic's batteries for the Model 3 and Y produced in Fremont are supply-limited. So, if Tesla used all the available Panasonic packs in 3's and Y's that were built at Fremont and sold, how can there be any "mistake" related to the Model 3 update schedule?
• Tesla's combined Model 3 and Y sales still broke their own records this year...so how can we possibly break up those numbers, and say that since some fraction of the total "decreased" it must be a loss or a mistake?
• We know there were some logistical and tax-credit related changes to battery packs put into the US-made Model 3's. For example, LFP packs from China were treated differently in 2023 versus 2024 for tax credit purposes. If Tesla planned to shift strategy on the numbers of differently sourced battery packs going into the Model 3, could there not have been some reduced production capability in preparation?
• I know many people like to keep pointing out Tesla's price cuts as indication of demand...but we also can't think about price as one variable in a vacuum. Tesla's prices went way up a few years ago when every other manufacturer was struggling to produce cars and gas prices were high...so of course prices went up when the whole vehicle market was facing supply issues. And, now that the entire vehicle market has shifted again, of course prices needed to come down.

 

[philw1776]

Obviously, I do care about people within Tesla leaking information that the company doesn’t want leaked. Those people should be found out and punished.

In this case I didn’t understand what you were saying about any of it and I still don’t. I was asking for you to restate your position/opinion/speculation/criticism in a manner I could understand.

With all due deference, I always found it utterly futile to explain my positions, etc. to my cats in a manner they could understand.

 

[EQC_]

...

The process of transitioning to renewable energy is more than merely the throwing of a switch. There will be a period of time required to accomplish this. Look up the definition of "transition" if this needs further explanation. Many, including Elon, believe this will take decades to achieve. I've even heard it said that "prototyping is easy, and production is hard" in regard to the manufacturing aspect.

...

This is a really universal statement that, while obvious to many, really needs to be made more clear to assorted critics/journalists/analysts/etc., as well as "regular people" in the world.

So many will point out the tremendous problems that would result if we transitioned to 100% EV's and renewable power "tomorrow." Well, duh?!? As you said, transition takes time...both on the production side and the actual transition side of the process. If we took every coal and gas power plant off the grid tomorrow, the world would crash because the renewables and storage haven't been built up yet. If somebody snapped their fingers and somehow converted every car on the road to electric tomorrow, of course various aspects of the infrastructure wouldn't be ready to handle the change. And of course today's EV's don't meet 100% of needs either...but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be considered for the 95% of uses where they do work.

Related to that, my mind jumps to my rather simple philosophy that "jerks and idiots ruin everything."

For EV's and renewables, it comes down to: Anybody publishing articles or otherwise telling others that the world *can't* or *shouldn't* transition to EV's and renewables because it isn't ready *today* is either:

1. A jerk who is knowingly lying to deceive people
2. An idiot who believed one of those liars
3. An idiot who just willy-nilly came to their own poorly thought out conclusion and thinks it has value

I won't get into the assorted other aspects of life where this philosophy seems to relate well to reality...but it really fits into so many "controversial" or "political" subjects....

 

[uscbucsfan]

After usc posted that, I went to chatgpt and asked it to draft an email for a contract renewal, and in addition to me having to think about how to ask it with enough detail in the question, it gave me a verbose email that was not in my style and included many things like offering an "in-person" meeting that I didn't want. Basically, the email draft was useless and I could have better spent 5 minutes to draft it myself.

I can see how it might be useful for essays and school homework, but as is, you need to put a lot of effort into the prompt itself in order to get the output you desire, and if you give it enough detail, you may as well do it yourself

You have to prep it correctly. For example; Here are the last 2 contracts we've entered with this Client, update the dates to X, add Y, and Z and then it will.

You can do the same with e-mails, paste an older one in there and say change the customer name to X and location to Y and it will.

I've had it write an e-mail (didn't use), but for coding it's great.

Also, it's instant for me. Not sure what issue you have waiting for it.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I am considering allowing use of a poll of this thread’s participants to learn who here uses ChatGPT. Age and educational levels of contributors might be appropriate subsets as well.

Sounds good.

 

[cab]

To get back to the market…..Tesla down about 4 bucks at the moment. On any news? Or??

It was down $4 on the news it would soon be down $5...

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Elon - humanity must be cherished!
Elon to Disney - "DEEZ NUTZ"

God. What a loser. His "tism" card has worn out.

Also Elon - "I think I'm funny"

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Sounds good.

Audubon is really just trying to confirm his suspicions about who of us are high school dropouts.

 

[powertoold]

You have to prep it correctly. For example; Here are the last 2 contracts we've entered with this Client, update the dates to X, add Y, and Z and then it will.

You can do the same with e-mails, paste an older one in there and say change the customer name to X and location to Y and it will.

Sounds like a job for Find and Replace though, oh well, hopefully I find a more compelling use case for me

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757136538641523015