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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Maybe I missed it but I thought there would have been more discussion on Elon buying stock and now owning 20% of the company. To me this signals to TSLA investors that he’s staying at the company and he believes the stock is going to run up imminently. My guess FSD12 beta will be wide release soon and will blow people away.
There was no change. This is an annual reporting that is required of anyone with 5% or more ownership.
 
What staggers me is that Tesla sell 4 different cars (CT not ramped), and mostly they just sell2 (3/Y). I know that other brands tend to have more variants, but just imagine Tesla selling a small 2 seater van, a large transit-size van, a small 2 door compact, and also a ramped cybertruck, semi and roadster.
This is the ideal, I wish Tesla will speed up this process.
 
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How does a system that works in 95% of situations require “no supervision”. What happens in the 5% of situations where it fails to work?

If it fails to work while in the middle of driving, and it is not under supervision….that sounds like it leads to a somewhat suboptimal outcome. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the definition?

I think, to some extent, a not-fully-capable system can just avoid those 5% of known non-working situations -- so, instead of failing "in the middle of driving" it just wouldn't be driving in that place at that time in the first place. Human drivers make these decisions too -- if snowfall is going to be heavy, for example, there is plenty of warning/advice to just avoid driving during those times, and many people do: they can get groceries before or after the storm, or take a day off work if needed. Human drivers aren't 100% capable either.

For a robo-taxi, it's also important to note these aren't going to suddenly be the "only option" for getting around. Other options (public transport, taxi's, Ubers, driving yourself in your own car, etc.) will still exist, and help to mitigate problems.

For the robo-taxi itself -- good/current map, weather, and traffic data could prevent a car from driving during, for example, a snow storm, or heavy rain that stifles visibility, or major road construction, or the intersections around a stadium where somebody is hand-directing traffic to deal with major crowd flows (whatever is included in that 5% of non-working situations).

You are right that it won't be completely avoidable though -- there can often be unexpected weather or road conditions, or events too recent to be flagged by the system. And, of course, a robo-taxi could get a blown out tire or be rear-ended by another vehicle and disabled (just like any other car or taxi). In such cases, there could be a mechanism for an empty robotaxi to "request" remote assistance, or just be programmed to pull over and park, etc. If there is a rider in the car, perhaps alternative transport could be summoned automatically. There would be occasional non-ideal situations like this...but there are ways to manage it.

And, of course, there's risk with any system...a regular, human-driven taxi can also get a flat tire or be rear-ended while the passenger is on their way to a time-critical event. The driver of an Uber can turn out to be a criminal. Even a person driving their own car can have unexpected trouble. "Sub optimal outcomes" happen all the time, in all sorts of systems. For a good long while, FSD-type systems (whether 95%, 99%, or 99.9999% capable) would just be an additional option, and not the only option, so there will be ways to handle system limitations and faults.
 
With a potential shareholder vote looming to approve the move from Delaware to Texas, don't holders of shorted shares have to return them to their rightful owner? Is that what we're seeing today, shorts covering?
Great question! This is worth knowing. ChatGPT4 is choking on it right now. Network error.

Edit: I hit Regenerate, and coughed up this: True?

"Holders of shorted shares of a company like Tesla do not necessarily have to return the shares in the event of a corporate event such as a shareholder vote to approve a move from Delaware to Texas. Short selling involves borrowing shares and selling them with the aim to buy them back at a lower price. This process is independent of a company's relocation or other corporate actions. "

Notice that "not necessarily" in there. I'm not convinced, but I also don't know.
 
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OT (but Earth related), Neil Young touring! (It's a Canadian thing.) Picked up tickets to the Phx show.

He's using alternative fuel buses for his "Love Earth Tour", but I can't find out what fuel??? Seems like a good cause, and wow... talk about some recording history here, since I can remember. Maybe it's something I can get behind.
 
Last chance to buy below 200 folks 😎

#psychology
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“…then pass the driving task back when it is approaching conditions under which it can't operate”

Right, so it does require the driver to take over at short notice, which to me doesn’t sound like a very attractive form of “unsupervised”.

It all sounds rather suboptimal still. Would much rather have waymo level autonomy in a car - as slow and geofenced as it is currently - which requires no driver whatsoever, and when it fails doesn’t lead to any danger, and slowly expand that to higher speeds and wider areas as system improves.
Your brief quote from AndrewZ didn't say the human would take over "at short notice" -- and the quoted words even hint at managing the transition over time: "when it is approaching conditions under which it can't operate." The example AndrewZ gave - the Mercedes driving through a traffic jam on Level 3 - would be able to give plenty of notice to a human as traffic began to clear and the system had to shift back into Level 2. This could easily be 30 seconds or a minute....plenty of time for a smooth hand-off. I don't think anybody would call it "Level 3" if the car is going to be driving at highway speed, see something it doesn't like, and beep twice to alert the human to take over while immediately shutting the software off.

You're right that an imperfect system can result in sub-optimal outcomes though. But the entire world is sub-optimal. There are crashes all the time with humans who literally fell asleep at the wheel -- that is suboptimal. Many people feel it is sub-optimal to sit in traffic that oscillates between 0 and 5 mph for an hour, while they have to manually hit the gas and the brake and turn the wheel every few seconds. For them, a Mercedes-like system is useful. Your Waymo example seems to indicate you find it sub-optimal to have to drive yourself in city traffic -- so the Waymo system works for you. Waymo is useless to the guy that needs to get through that traffic jam...and the Mercedes system might be useless to you. Many areas would benefit from a fully optimized system of public transport with trains and busses and subways, but that just doesn't exist everywhere. Having more options available is a good thing.

*Side note: your line that when Waymo "fails it doesn't lead to any danger" might be better stated as "the speed is lower so the danger is reduced." Deaths, injuries, and property damage can of course still happen at speeds below 30 mph.
 
I think people are way too pessimistic about the potential for a stock price climb. There is no much good news. The SP being low has just depressed all us regular posters! Potential catalysts:
  • FSD v12 wide release
  • FSD release in China
  • FSD release in Europe
  • Breakthrough with 4680s (maybe the asymmetric lamination?) results in a range boost or cost reduction for all 4680 vehicles.
  • Semi mass production starts
  • Optimus update
  • Interest rates fall and Tesla holds prices the same...margins leap up
  • Rivian/Lucid/Nikola collapse
  • Collapse in sales of the F150 Lightning
  • Model 2 reveal
  • Cybertruck ramp accelerates
  • Model Y juniper update
  • Much improved Q1 financials due to highland production cost fall
  • Lithium price fall translates to lower costs & higher margins
  • Climate-Change major event forces step-change on policy for EVs.

No idea how many of these, if any happen in the next six months, or even month. Predicting Tesla is very hard. None of us saw the hertz deal coming. None of us saw the GM NACS deal coming.
My best guess is interest rates falling, and combo of lithium drop/highland optimisations lead to decent margins in Q1. FSD timeline feels random. I don't expect model 2 reveal in the next 6 months. I do expect one of rivian, lucid or nikola to be wound up soonish. Personally am excited about optimus and semi.
Nice list. I would personally add -- do a "sleep on the factory floor" effort to land
the $7500 IRA credit for the Model 3, the largest single COGS reduction I can imagine
(I know, it's technically not a COGS item in the traditional sense of the word, but it
certainly is to a consumer!)

So now, some questions. Since LG hasn't (or can't/won't for a couple of years) scale up
2170/4680 batt production in the U.S, and not necessarily for Tesla, is Panasonic the sole arbiter
of being able to do this? For 2025, 2026? Can it be even more granular to happen
mid-year? The website says that Giga Nevada currently has enough production for 500,000
cars -- I'm aware that they boosted it by a line or two, and there's another slow grind to
get another 5% inside the battery, but can a boost be done fast for both Model 3/Y in the U.S.?

Lastly, at the pack level for the Model 3, does anyone here know whether the Panasonic (BT42, 82kWh)
pack is interchangeable with the LG (BT43, 79kWh) one, or is non-trivial engineering work required to
refit with Panasonic?
 
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